We’re at the midpoint of the 2025 college football season, so it’s a good time to check in on a few SEC teams who might be overrated.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about 3 SEC teams I felt were overrated at the time: Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Since then, the Longhorns have lost to Florida (and beaten Oklahoma) while the Rebels and Vols each squeaked out 3-point wins over Washington State and Arkansas, respectively.
3 underrated SEC teams entering Week 8
This story will strive to identify 3 SEC teams who are underrated by either the media, the betting markets or analytic models.
Let’s dive in:
Underrated by the media: Auburn
Auburn isn’t a great team, but its underlying metrics suggest it’s much better than its record. Every once in a while, you get a team like Auburn who has a great roster but just repeatedly finds ways to lose close games. The Tigers turn the ball over in key moments. They melt down when a call doesn’t go their way. They struggle on third down. Auburn is the epitome of that this season.
And yet, I have to say they’re underrated. This is a team that’s top-30 in SP+ entering this weekend. CFB-Graphs has the Tigers ranked 19th this week. They have an elite defense, a good running game, a proven offensive coaching staff and … a quarterback who won’t take risks over the middle. Jackson Arnold — and some questionable officiating in multiple games — is the biggest thing holding Auburn back. Here’s some data from PFF: Among SEC quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Arnold is last in big-time throw rate, seventh in turnover-worthy play rate, 14th in average depth of target and dead last in yards per attempt.
And even with all of that, Auburn has lost to 3 top-10 teams by a combined 23 points with 2 of those games coming on the road. There’s no justification for actually ranking a 3-loss Auburn team in the top-25, but I will continue to think Auburn has a top-25 caliber roster that is one QB change away from unlocking all sorts of upside.
Pick: Auburn to win 7+ games (-130 on FanDuel)
Underrated by the betting markets: Mississippi State
Mississippi State has been much more competitive than anyone would have expected this season after last year’s poor showing. Jeff Lebby has quickly turned the Bulldogs into a postseason threat, although I’m not sure that’s currently being reflected in the betting markets.
On a game-to-game basis, Mississippi State is 5-1 against the spread this season. The only time it didn’t cover was against Texas A&M a couple of weeks ago. On average, the Bulldogs have beat the number by almost 6 points per game.
This is a Mississippi State team that ranks 45th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric. The Bulldogs are also top-40 in SP+. But I don’t think Mississippi State is being treated as that level of team by the betting markets. As of this writing, they’re 9.5-point underdogs against Florida in The Swamp this weekend. Florida ranks 2 spots ahead of Mississippi State in SP+ and is actually ranked well behind the Bulldogs on CFB-Graphs.
Pick: Mississippi State +9.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
Underrated by analytics: Alabama
It may be a tough sell to argue that Alabama is underrated at this point, but I think that’s the case. The Crimson Tide entered the year as an analytics darling but were promptly ejected from the upper echelons of the sport after their Week 1 loss to Florida State. Alabama was No. 2 in SP+ entering Week 1 this season and dropped to No. 11 for Week 2. After 5 straight victories since the FSU win, including 3 over ranked opponents, Alabama is now No. 12 in SP+ entering Week 8.
Alabama is also only 7th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA metric. I should note that CFB-Graphs has Alabama at No. 1, so it’s not as if the Crimson Tide are underrated by all analytics. I certainly think Alabama is closer to No. 1 than it is to No. 7 or 12 at this stage in the season. The betting markets generally agree. Most sports betting apps have Alabama with the second-best odds to win the national championship behind Ohio State. Alabama is also close to being the odds-on favorite to win the SEC, but is currently priced at +175 to win the league at Caesars.
Alabama has an elite quarterback in Ty Simpson plus an excellent wide receiver corps. The running game is a concern, but that’s something I think the Crimson Tide will be able to sort through over the course of the year. The defense has also been very strong despite a very challenging schedule of opposing offenses. Alabama’s 3 toughest remaining games are all at home and the Tide still don’t have a conference loss, so I think Alabama getting to — and winning — the conference title is a good bet.
Pick: Alabama to win the SEC (+175 on Caesars)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
