Why Week 1 was the perfect reminder of this evergreen Heisman Trophy betting strategy
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I say it all offseason. It’s a phrase that gets put on the back burner once the season kicks off because to a certain extent, it’s like yesterday’s newspaper. But on the heels of what we witnessed in Week 1, I feel compelled to go back to the well and remind folks of that offseason moniker/way of life.
Friends don’t let friends bet on preseason Heisman Trophy favorites.
It’s awful value, especially in the internet age. The numbers are overwhelming. Since 2009, Marcus Mariota was the only preseason top-2 Heisman favorite who won the award (there were certain outlets in which Jayden Daniels emerged as a top-2 favorite in August ahead of the 2023 season). And sure, you’ve seen guys like Caleb Williams (3rd in preseason odds) emerge, but this is about odds. Last year, Travis Hunter won after he was 50-to-1. That’s a whole lot more likely to give you return on investment than betting a preseason favorite at 7-to-1.
Unlike the frustration with preseason polls that elite offseason teams have an easier path to the Playoff, the preseason Heisman favorites might actually have a steeper climb to win the award. Even 1997 Peyton Manning (or 2025 Peyton Manning?) would agree with that sentiment.
Speaking of Manning, let’s revisit the favorites in those preseason odds from February (via DraftKings):
- Arch Manning +700
- Garrett Nussmeier +900
- Drew Allar +1000
- Cade Klubnik +1400
- Julian Sayin +1500
- Jeremiah Smith +1600
For the sake of your wallet, I hope that you’re not heavily invested in several guys from that list
Who woke up on Sunday morning fired up about a preseason Heisman bet on one of the 6 favorites?
Manning was skewered for his Week 1 dud at Ohio State. He was always going to be skewered for any shortcomings. And let’s be honest here. Even if Manning had played his tail off in Columbus, he’s still got 3 more months of football to get his performances picked apart.
Nussmeier was in total control in his battle against Klubnik, but was it a gaudy, stat-stuffing type performance in a 17-10 win? I wouldn’t say that. I’d also add that if LSU’s defense looks as good as it did in the opener, Nussmeier isn’t going to need to throw the ball nearly as much as he did last year and might actually have his numbers regress.
Allar had a cupcake Week 1 matchup that wasn’t going to impact his odds, but 10-to-1 odds on a guy who hasn’t had more than 30 touchdowns in a season through 2 years as a starter feels like throwing money away.
Sayin might have picked up a big-time victory against top-ranked Texas in his debut, but 128 yards of offense doesn’t exactly set Sayin on that path, nor did Smith having 43 receiving yards and 2 drops as someone who’d likely need to put up historic numbers to win the award as a receiver.
Those guys were in the top 6. You might still believe in them. If you do, you know what you can do? Bet on guys like Manning, Allar and Sayin with juicier odds after Week 1 than they had back in February. Here’s where those 6 guys stand now (via DraftKings):
- Garrett Nussmeier: +800
- Cade Klubnik +1400
- Jeremiah Smith +1500
- Arch Manning +1600
- Drew Allar +2000
- Julian Sayin +2200
Here’s what the current top 10 looks like after Week 1:
- 1. Garrett Nussmeier +800
- 2. LaNorris Sellers +900
- 3. Carson Beck +1200
- 4. Cade Klubnik +1400
- T5. Jeremiah Smith +1500
- T5. Gunner Stockton +1500
- T7. John Mateer +1600
- T7. Arch Manning +1600
- 9. Sam Leavitt +1800
- T10. Drew Allar +2000
- T10. DJ Lagway +2000
Notice where that list of the top 10 ends. Lagway was among my favorite preseason bets at +2500. He played in 1 game against an FCS team, and now he’s at +2000.
There’s more value in even bigger preseason long shots like Austin Simmons at +3500 or Leavitt, who was +4500 back in February and has risen to +1800. That doesn’t mean they’ll hit. I thought there was good preseason value at +2800 for Ryan Williams, but 3 drops and a concussion in a brutal Week 1 loss now has him at +4500. Jeremiyah Love intrigued me at +6000, but then we all watched him get inexplicably ignored in a top-10 showdown to kick off the season, which should’ve served as a reminder that as decorated as he was entering the season, he’s had more than 14 carries in a game just once in his career.
Betting on the Heisman in the preseason is, by all accounts, a total dart throw. It’s not a true science. If you’re actually going to hit a bullseye with one of those dart throws, it’d be nice to get a much more lucrative reward for doing so.
If you do like a preseason favorite, at least do as Warren Buffett does and buy the dip. Maybe doing that with Manning ahead of a favorable Week 2 matchup makes a ton of sense, especially after all the national shows teed off on his Week 1 showing.
Whatever your Heisman betting strategy is moving forward, file my advice away from next offseason.
Be a friend to others and yourself.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
