You know the numbers against Brian Kelly and LSU in Week 1, but these 5 stats are working in their favor
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If you’ve consumed an adult beverage every time you’ve heard about LSU being winless in season openers in the 2020s, apologies to your liver. That’s a Louisiana Saturday night.
This Saturday night, all eyes will be on LSU in its attempt to finally win a Week 1 game for the first time since a certain Joe Burrow was in the purple and gold. At this point, nobody will be surprised if the latter half of the 2020s begins in familiar fashion for the Bayou Bengals. After all, No. 9 LSU is a 3.5-point road underdog at No. 4 Clemson (via BetMGM), and understandably so. One could’ve made that spread based off Brian Kelly’s off-handed “Death Valley Jr.” comment alone.
Don’t tell Dabo Swinney, but his team has a ton working in its favor. Preseason All-American Cade Klubnik is leading a team that ranks No. 1 in America in percentage of returning production. It’s a team that hired Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen to run its defense after last year’s run-game woes spoiled Klubnik’s brilliant performance in the first-round Playoff game at Texas (more on that in a minute). All signs point to this being the best team that LSU faced during this 2020s stretch of dud season-opening performances.
But dare I say, not everything is pointing straight in the direction of another LSU loss in Week 1. These 5 stats are, at the very least, working in favor of the visiting Tigers:
1. Clemson’s defense allowed 243 rushing yards per SEC loss in 2024
I know, I know. That was last year. This year, Allen is on board. He’s got 2 preseason All-Americans in TJ Parker and Peter Woods, as well as a decorated transfer (?!?) in Will Heldt. There’s an expectation that group will be better because frankly, it couldn’t have been worse last year. It wasn’t just that LaNorris Sellers broke roughly 548 tackles in that regular-season finale victory at Clemson. That group got worse down the stretch. Even The Citadel went for 288 rushing yards against Clemson.
Allen is too good of a defensive coach for that not to improve, and when you’re No. 99 in rushing yards/carry allowed, the only way to go is up. But is it a dominant run-stopping group in Week 1? Is it showing massive progress against preseason All-SEC running back Caden Durham, who averaged 3.5 yards after contact as a true freshman? And is it taking a giant step forward against an LSU offensive line that bolstered its interior with a pair of veteran transfers who both have over 1,400 career snaps on Power Conference teams? We don’t know that.
All we know is that as decorated as Clemson’s defensive front is, it was an Achilles’ heel in an 0-3 mark vs. SEC competition in 2024. That group has a ton to prove before we assume it’ll be the foundation of beating top-10 teams.
2. Since his arrival at LSU, Brian Kelly actually has a slightly better record vs. AP top 10 teams than Dabo Swinney
I bring that up because Kelly is labeled as the coach who can’t win big games dating back to his time at Notre Dame. That’s how you’re viewed when you don’t have a ring. Swinney has the 2 rings, but he’s also 2-4 vs. AP Top 10 teams (at the time of the matchup) the last 3 seasons. Kelly, meanwhile, is 3-4 in those games since his arrival at LSU.
Even if you want to take it back to the start of the 2018 season when Clemson delivered one of the best seasons of the 21st century, Swinney has a 7-8 (.467) mark vs. AP top 10 teams compared to 5-9 (.357) for Kelly. Swinney has the edge there, but that’s a separation of 1.5 games. It’s hardly a night and day difference between the 2 coaches in the way that the casual fan (or the Clemson diehard) would assume.
3. Even in his best season to date (2024), Cade Klubnik averaged 6.8 yards/pass attempt in 4 games vs. AP Top 25 finishers
Mind you, that’s not including the Louisville game when the Cardinals came into Death Valley and held Klubnik to 4.1 yards/attempt on 56 (!) passes in a 33-21 loss. He might’ve saved his best for last in that aforementioned brilliant showing against Texas, but it’s been the knock on Klubnik throughout his career. In 2023, he averaged 5.7 yards/attempt with a 111.1 QB rating vs. 3 AP Top 25 finishers. His legs haven’t been much of a factor in those games, either. In 2024, he averaged 18 rushing yards in those 4 contests, and in 2023, he had negative rushing yards with 1 touchdown run.
That 2024 stat is relevant because unlike in 2023 when the weapons were lacking, Clemson found some elite young pass catchers last fall. They were out there in that 3-game stretch to close the season, all of which were matchups vs. AP Top 25 finishers. They all took turns in a lead role, including a remarkable 116-yard showing from then-true freshman TJ Moore in the Texas game. It’s a massive reason why Clemson’s 2025 outlook is more promising than the last 4 seasons.
But Clemson won’t take the next step unless Klubnik’s efficiency vs. quality foes takes another step, while perhaps getting some help in the backfield.
4. If Jay Haynes is “not quite there yet,” Clemson’s Week 1 running back room has 14 career carries
That’s it. Clemson’s starting running back is expected to be converted receiver Adam Randall, who got his first career carries in the Texas loss when Phil Mafah (NFL) and Haynes were sidelined. According to Swinney, Haynes is “not quite there” after he suffered a torn ACL in the ACC Championship Game last December (H/T Chapel Fowler). Randall emerged in camp, and 4-star freshman Gideon Davidson will also be in the mix.
For some running back rooms, maybe that wouldn’t be an issue. An imposing offensive line can fix that sort of thing. While there’s an expectation that Matt Luke will inherit a better situation in Year 2 with a more experienced Clemson offensive line, it’s still a group that averaged just 2.9 yards/carry in 4 games vs. AP Top 25 finishers. It wasn’t exactly an imposing unit against the best teams on its schedule.
To be fair, LSU wasn’t exactly disciplined when defending the run against elite foes, either. It allowed an average of 245 rushing yards/contest in 3 games vs. AP Top 25 finishers. Much like with Luke in Year 2 with that offensive line, there’s an expectation that Year 2 with Blake Baker’s defense will be set up better with LSU’s portal additions and a healthy Harold Perkins Jr.
Both units are far closer to being unknowns than proven commodities.
5. Dabo Swinney is 4-11 vs. AP Top 25 finishers in the last 4 seasons … and 3-6 vs. the SEC
There ya go, Mr. Swinney. There’s all the bulletin board material that you and your squad needs. That stat shows just how different these last 4 years have been for the Tigers, who were an unbelievable 19-3 vs. AP Top 25 finishers from 2015-19.
And in case you were wondering, Swinney is 2-3 vs. AP Top 25 finishers at home in the last 4 seasons. That’s right. Against the teams that ultimately mattered at home, Clemson has a losing record in the last 4 seasons. Go figure that both of those victories (2021 vs. Wake Forest and 2023 vs. Notre Dame) came against Sam Hartman. Kelly, on the other hand, is 2-2 vs. AP Top 25 finishers in true road games since he started at LSU in 2022, and the only coaches with more such victories in that stretch are Ryan Day (3) and Kirby Smart (4).
Is 4-11 vs. AP Top 25 finishers better than an 0-5 mark in 2020s season openers? You bet. Maybe the latter is more inevitable than anything, and Clemson really will send a message to the college football world that it’s ready to start competing for a national title again. That’s certainly possible.
But until Clemson shows that it’s the force it was in the latter half of the 2010s, it’s foolish to dismiss what held Swinney and Co. back in recent memory.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
