Predicting every round of the NCAA softball tournament, WCWS

The road to the 2025 Women’s College World Series starts on Friday with first-round action.

A total of 64 teams made the field, but that number will be cut down to 16 in just a few day’s time. This story will predict the winner of every Regional, Super Regional and, eventually, the Women’s College World Series.

Softball NCAA Tournament predictions

Here are predictions for the Regional round:

Bryan-College Station Regional

Teams: Texas A&M, Saint Francis (PA), Liberty, Marist

Winner pick: Texas A&M

The Aggies were controversially named the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed over 4-time defending national champions Oklahoma. While the Sooners had a case, the Aggies are certainly deserving and should roll through this regional. Liberty is likely to be the biggest challenger as it ranks No. 22 in Warren Nolan’s pre-tournament ELO ratings. 

Norman Regional

Teams: Oklahoma, Boston U, California, Omaha

Winner pick: Oklahoma

Oklahoma might not be quite as potent in the circle this year as it looks for a 5th straight national championship. But the Sooners still grade out as one of the very best teams in the country and should cruise to another regional victory over this field.

Gainesville Regional

Teams: Florida, Mercer, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Tech

Winner pick: Florida

This is a pretty easy draw for the Gators, as FAU at No. 30 is the highest-ranked opponent in this regional per Warren Nolan’s ELO ratings. Florida should be able to take care of business here. 

Fayetteville Regional

Teams: Arkansas, Saint Louis, Oklahoma State, Indiana

Winner pick: Arkansas

The Razorbacks put together an extremely impressive résumé this season, particularly late in the year. Oklahoma State has become an elite program in recent years, but this is something of a down year for the Cowgirls. They’re outside the top 30 in Warren Nolan’s ELO ratings and went just 13-9 in Big 12 play. I think Arkansas will get it done at home. 

Tallahassee Regional

Teams: Florida State, Robert Morris, Auburn, South Florida

Winner pick: Florida State

This regional will be an interesting test for the SEC’s prowess in softball. Auburn was one of a handful of SEC teams to make the NCAA Tournament who is not hosting a regional. This Florida State team hasn’t skipped a beat despite losing a lot of talent off of last year’s team, particularly in the circle. I think FSU prevails, but Auburn could be dangerous — the Tigers have been facing elite teams on a weekly basis for months. 

Austin Regional

Teams: Texas, Eastern Illinois, UCF, Michigan

Winner pick: Texas

The Longhorns were arguably the best team in the country in mid-April but fell off a cliff down the stretch. They lost a home series to Tennessee, got swept by Oklahoma, barely beat Oklahoma State and then got run-ruled by Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament. There were some wins mixed in there, but that’s a rough stretch. The offense really failed them as they averaged just 4.7 runs per game from April 11 onwards. Did Texas peak too early? We’re about to find out. I suspect they’ll be OK for this regional, but an upset wouldn’t shock me. Of the challengers, Michigan probably has the best shot. 

Knoxville Regional

Teams: Tennessee, Miami (OH), North Carolina, Ohio State

Winner pick: Tennessee

Softball often boils down to your pitching staff this time of year, and Tennessee arguably has the best group of pitchers in the country. The advanced metrics don’t love the Vols (who are 9th in Warren Nolan’s ELO ratings) but this is a profile I like to bet on. Karlyn Pickens is one of the very best pitchers in the country with an ERA under 1 and over 230 strikeouts to her name. She might be the best pitcher in the country save for NiJaree Canady. As a team, Tennessee’s ERA of 1.80 is 2nd nationally only to Grand Canyon. Putting up those kind of numbers in the SEC is remarkably-impressive. 

Columbia Regional

Teams: South Carolina, Elon, Virginia, North Florida

Winner pick: Virginia

This is a tough regional. South Carolina doesn’t have an elite pitcher, making this a tougher task. The lineup is awesome, but I think this is a spot where we could see an upset. I’ll back Virginia to get it done. The Cavs rank top-35 nationally in both slugging percentage and ERA entering the NCAA Tournament. 

Los Angeles Regional

Teams: UCLA, UC Santa Barbara, San Diego State, Arizona State

Winner pick: UCLA

The Bruins have made the Super Regional round in every NCAA Tournament but one (2023) since 2014. I think that streak continues here behind a strong pitching staff. 

Baton Rouge Regional

Teams: LSU, Southeastern Louisiana, Nebraska, UConn

Winner pick: Nebraska

LSU is the favorite here, but Nebraska is live to pull off the upset. Jordy Bahl is back after recovering from an ACL injury she suffered in 2024. Bahl is hitting and pitching this year and has been excellent at both. She leads the Huskers with a .458 batting average and 19 homers this season. In the circle, she’s posted a 1.57 ERA and 254 strikeouts. She’s battle-tested at the highest levels of this sport from her time at Oklahoma. I’ll take Nebraska to win this regional and move on with Bahl at the center of it all. 

Clemson Regional

Teams: Clemson, USC Upstate, Kentucky, Northwestern

Winner pick: Clemson

Clemson is perhaps the most under-seeded host in this field. The Tigers are all the way up at No. 3 in Warren Nolan’s ELO ratings, trailing only Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Kentucky, the No. 2 seed in this regional, is all the way down at No. 55. I like Clemson to roll in this regional. 

Lubbock Regional

Teams: Texas Tech, Brown, Washington, Mississippi State

Winner pick: Texas Tech

The presence of NiJaree Canady in this regional is enough for me to back the Red Raiders without too much thought. She’s the best pitcher in the country and Texas Tech’s offense isn’t too bad with more than 6 runs per game on average. Mississippi State would be my pick to reach the regional title game, but I think Texas Tech takes care of business. 

Tucson Regional

Teams: Arizona, Santa Clara, Grand Canyon, Ole Miss

Winner pick: Arizona

Grand Canyon is grossly under-seeded in this regional. The Antelopes are 17th in Warren Nolan’s ELO ratings, just 4 spots behind host Arizona. Ole Miss is in the top-25, too. Grand Canyon hasn’t played power-conference opposition too often this season, but it held its own when it did. The Antelopes own a win over Washington and 2 victories vs. Arizona State. Grand Canyon and Arizona actually played each other during the regular season, with the Wildcats winning in extra innings. I’m tempted to pick Grand Canyon, but given that Ole Miss is also a tough out in this regional, I’ll go chalk and pick Arizona. 

Durham Regional

Teams: Duke, Howard, Georgia, Coastal Carolina

Winner pick: Duke

Duke is not a particularly-dominant team relative to other hosts, but this doesn’t strike me as a dangerous regional for the Blue Devils. I like Duke to advance here. 

Tuscaloosa Regional

Teams: Alabama, Jackson State, Virginia Tech, Belmont

Winner pick: Alabama

This is perhaps the toughest regional in the field. Virginia Tech is actually ranked higher than host Alabama per Warren Nolan’s ELO rating. And then there’s Belmont, who has arguably the best pitcher in this regional in Maya Johnson. She posted a staggering 355 strikeouts in 33 appearances this season. With that being said, Johnson has scarcely faced power-conference opposition this season and Belmont isn’t exactly battle-tested. This regional is between Alabama and Virginia Tech for me and I’ll go with the hosts. 

Eugene Regional

Teams: Oregon, Weber State, Stanford, Binghamton

Winner pick: Oregon

Stanford probably feels like it should be hosting this weekend and the Cardinal might have a point. But Oregon is a more-than formidable opponent and I think the Ducks will have enough offense (11th in slugging percentage) to win this regional at home. 

Super Regional picks

Here are predictions for the Super Regional round based on the projections above:

Texas A&M over Oregon

The Aggies are the No. 1 overall seed for a reason. Oregon is good, but Texas A&M will be battle-tested after going through the SEC gauntlet all year. Both A&M and Oregon average over 7 runs per game, but there’s a big strength of schedule gap. Per Warren Nolan, A&M faced the nation’s No. 2-ranked schedule this year. Oregon is down at No. 62 in that category. 

UCLA over Virginia

The Bruins are elite on both sides of the diamond and faced one of the very best non-SEC schedules in the country this season. I think UCLA will make it to Oklahoma City for the second year in a row. 

Texas Tech over Florida State

Florida State is used to having a pitching advantage when it gets to this stage of the tournament, but that won’t happen this year. NiJaree Canady has been absurdly dominant this season for the Red Raiders. In a short series, Canady could end up pitching every inning of this Super Regional — bad news for FSU. 

Arkansas over Arizona

This is something of a toss-up but I’ll go with the Razorbacks. Arkansas is No. 4 in ELO per Warren Nolan and has faced one of the toughest schedules in the country this season. This would be Arkansas’s first-ever trip to the Women’s College World Series if they advance. 

Florida over Duke

This Duke program has been really good in recent years, but I like the Gators to get out of this Super. UF acquitted itself very well against what was statistically the toughest schedule in the country. 

Clemson over Texas

I think this is where Texas’s recent struggles will catch up to them. The Longhorns have an elite offensive on paper, but it has struggled for more than a month now. Clemson is a super-tough 11-seed and I think the Tigers are good enough to pull off the upset against Mike White and UT. 

Tennessee over Nebraska

I would have picked Bahl and the Huskers to upset most teams at this level, but I don’t think I can get there with Tennessee. The Vols have a pitcher who has been just as dominant as Bahl in Karlyn Pickens. I think Tennessee is just a better team at this stage, even with as great as Bahl is individually. 

Oklahoma over Alabama

These are 2 programs with a lot of history with one another, particularly at the Women’s College World Series. Alabama is good, but this Sooners team has an elite offense once again and a pitcher in Sam Landry who has looked like an ace at times this year. I think OU will get it done at home and head back to OKC to try to defend its title. 

Women’s College World Series finals prediction

Due to the structure of this tournament, it’s difficult to know which teams will ultimately meet in the final. But for the sake of the exercise, we’ll take a stab at predicting the path in OKC. 

After winning the last 4 national championships, I think Oklahoma will bow out before reaching the Champ Series. The pitching just hasn’t been consistent enough this season. Sam Landry is an ace, but even she has struggled over the past month or so and I’m not sure there’s much trust with anyone else on this staff. 

Similarly, I’m down on Florida’s chances to win it all. Keagan Rothrock just has not been herself after missing some time due to injury earlier this season. Without an ace in the circle, it’s hard to see the Gators going far. 

Tennessee may not have quite enough offense to get to the title game even with Pickens controlling things in the circle. 

Now let’s get to the Champ Series pick. Texas A&M earned the No. 1 overall seed for this tournament and I think the Aggies will live up to the hype. They have multiple trustworthy arms and an elite offense led by Mya Perez. Give me the Red Raiders to make it to the finals, but fall just short. This is arguably the best supporting cast NiJaree Canady has had since she got to college. I think Texas Tech is a real threat to win it all, but am predicting they will come up just short against in-state foe Texas A&M. 

The Aggies are the favorite in the betting markets to win it all. They’re priced at +150 to win the WCWS, per BetMGM. Texas Tech is a longshot, however. The Red Raiders are all the way down at +2200. 

Pick: Texas A&M over Texas Tech