The 2026 NFL Draft begins on Thursday, April 23, in Pittsburgh. We’re a little under 3 months away from the Las Vegas Raiders going on the clock, but there will be next to no drama involved once they do. The Raiders need a quarterback, and the expectation is that they will draft the Heisman Trophy winner from Indiana, Fernando Mendoza.
At BetMGM, Mendoza is -10000 to be the No. 1 pick. The market — and most draft experts — is indicating that the draft won’t technically begin until the New York Jets go on the clock with the No. 2 pick.
New York obviously needs its own franchise quarterback. The organization hasn’t had a quarterback start 10 or more games in consecutive seasons since Sam Darnold did it from 2018-20. But, with Dante Moore’s decision to return to Oregon for the 2026 season, New York is left with no obvious answer to that question.
With the 2027 quarterback class looking exciting, it would be foolish to spend a No. 2 pick on a player like Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, who would likely still be available when the Jets pick again at 16. And New York isn’t exactly a trade-down candidate; the Jets have 2 firsts this year and 3 next year. If anything, they have the ammo to move up.
The widely held belief is that New York will target a top-end defender with the No. 2 pick to invigorate a defense that gave up 29.6 points a game this season (31st) and 5.6 yards per play (22nd).
At the time of publication, all the major mock drafts have Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese going second overall. Reese is also the betting favorite to be the No. 2 pick at BetMGM, with +180 odds at the time of publication.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. wrote this of the selection in his debut mock:
The Jets ranked 31st in sacks with 26, and Will McDonald IV was the only player on the roster with more than four of them (eight). Jermaine Johnson is heading into his fifth-year-option season, meaning the depth chart could be thinning out on the edge. With coach Aaron Glenn’s defensive background, getting that unit right will be an offseason priority.
NFL media’s Daniel Jeremiah wrote this in his first mock of the season:
The Jets have needs all over their defense. Reese is versatile and athletic. I think he’ll benefit from working off the edge full time after also playing off-ball linebacker during his Buckeyes career.
If the goal is to improve the pass rush, Texas Tech’s David Bailey (+500) is the better option.
Reese is an exciting player, but he played off-ball more in college. Transitioning him into a full-time pass rusher off the edge might take away some of what makes him such a special prospect. And New York needs a full-time pass rusher off the edge.
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If we assume Mendoza will be off the board, Caleb Downs (+800) is my favorite player in the class. He could be a generational talent. But only 2 safeties have gone top-5 this century. Kyle Hamilton was also a generational safety, and he went 14th.
David Bailey is my second-favorite player in the class. He’s a little smaller than Reese. He obviously doesn’t have the same kind of versatility. But he’s an unblockable force who should test really, really well throughout the pre-draft process.
Per PFF, Bailey had an 81.5 grade against the run, an 83.7 tackling grade, and a 93.8 pass-rushing grade. Among all FBS front 7 players, Bailey had the best pass-rush grade.
His 19.5 tackles for loss ranked second nationally. Reese was not in the top 100.
His 14.5 sacks ranked first nationally. Reese was not in the top 50.
His 81 quarterback pressures ranked second nationally. Reese was not in the top 150.
To be clear, Reese is an elite prospect with sky-high potential. But Bailey played fewer snaps than Reese in 2025 and doubled the output in all the areas that are pressing concerns for the New York Jets.
Kiper’s mock has Bailey going fourth to the Tennessee Titans. The Ringer has Bailey going seventh to Washington. Jeremiah has Bailey going sixth to Cleveland. He’s already high on the board. I think he’ll rise once teams get him in their buildings.
Bailey has short-area explosiveness that will shine at the Combine. His size and length are a little lacking, but it’s hard to argue with 42 career TFLs and 172 career quarterback pressures. Bailey spearheaded one of the nation’s best defenses in 2025. Even as his team was embarrassed by Oregon in the College Football Playoff, Bailey still made his mark with 9 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 2 pass breakups. In the biggest moment of his season, Bailey delivered.
Given his twitchiness, he should continue to produce at a high level in the NFL.
With months still to go, every sign is pointing to New York drafting a pass rusher. Back the Jets to spend their No. 2 pick on Bailey, the best pass rusher in the class.
Bet David Bailey to be the No. 2 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft (+500 via BetMGM)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
