It’s almost time for Sunday Night Football.
The Bills and Ravens will battle it out in Buffalo in Week 1, a rematch of their epic playoff game from last season. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are two of the very best quarterbacks in the game, but have rarely faced off in the regular season.
Despite being the road team, the Ravens are favored by 1 point, according to most sports betting apps.
Bills vs. Ravens betting picks, analysis
Here’s what you should know about both teams before betting on this game:
Buffalo Bills fact sheet
- Led by Josh Allen, the Bills are among the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl this season. Allen is also one of the preseason favorites to win NFL MVP alongside the likes of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes.
- Buffalo’s offensive weapons leave a bit to be desired. Khalil Shakur was the team’s leading receiver last season at just over 800 yards. Keon Coleman, Buffalo’s second-round pick in 2024, eclipsed 500 yards as a rookie last season and could be in line for a breakout. Tight end Dalton Kincaid was a bit disappointing last season, too (448 yards and 2 touchdowns).
- At running back, James Cook is expected to get the bulk of the work while former Kentucky product Ray Davis serves as his backup.
- Despite an underwhelming wide receiver room, Buffalo finished last season ranked No. 2 in dropback EPA. The Bills were also No. 3 in EPA per rush.
- Defensively, the Bills made some significant free agent acquisitions this offseason. Edge rusher Joey Bosa is set to start the year healthy and could make an impact if he’s able to stay on the field (28 games in the last 3 seasons).
- Buffalo spent significant draft capital on its defense this year. It took defenders with its first 5 picks as it looks to backfill after losing veterans like Von Miller, Jordan Phillips and Rasul Douglas this offseason.
- Pass defense was a big issue for Buffalo last season. The Bills ranked 20th in defensive dropback EPA, largely because Douglas struggled so much in coverage. Among corners with at least 500 coverage snaps in 2024, Douglas ranked 41st out of 47 qualified players in PFF’s coverage grade metric.
- Buffalo took Maxwell Hairston in the first round seemingly in an effort to improve in that area, but Hairston is on IR to begin the year and won’t return until at least Week 5. Buffalo’s projected starting cornerbacks, Christian Benford and Tre’Davious White, are both questionable this week with groin injuries.Â
Baltimore Ravens fact sheet
- Lamar Jackson returns for another season on the heels of 3 straight playoff appearances with Baltimore. If Baltimore wins 10+ games this season, it would mark the first time in franchise history it has won double-digit games in 4 consecutive seasons.
- Former Alabama star Derrick Henry is also back for another season with the Ravens. Henry came up just 79 yards short of another 2,000-yard campaign last year.
- Rashod Bateman was rewarded with a contract extension this offseason after he enjoyed a breakout year in 2024. Baltimore is a run-heavy offense (52.5% run rate was third in the NFL last season) but it still needs separators for Jackson to find downfield. Bateman and Zay Flowers are the best receivers Baltimore has, although tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely have been difference-makers in the past. It’s worth noting, though, that Likely is questionable with a foot injury.
- Baltimore did good work with its secondary this offseason, adding Jaire Alexander and Chidobe Awuzie via free agency. The Ravens also spent a first-round pick on former Georgia safety Malaki Starks.Â
- The Ravens lost cornerback Brandon Stephenson to the Jets, but he graded out poorly on PFF last season. The safety room led by Starks and Kyle Hamilton looks like it could be one of the best in football.
- Like Buffalo, Baltimore was better against the run than it was against the pass last season. The Ravens had an elite rush defense last year but were merely middle-of-the-pack against aerial attacks.
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens best bets
The last time we saw Mark Andrews, he was dropping a crucial pass that ultimately ended Baltimore’s playoff run last season. Andrews is still one of the best tight ends in the league, though, and Jackson loves throwing to that position in the red zone. Andrews and Likely combined for more than 45% of Baltimore’s target share in the red zone last season. As mentioned above, Likely has been banged up this week with an injury and is questionable at the time of this writing. I like Andrews’ odds to score under these conditions.
Pick: Mark Andrews anytime touchdown (+175 on DraftKings)
Derrick Henry’s rushing volume will certainly be something to watch early on in the season as he begins his 10th NFL campaign. For now, at least, I think the market is too low on Henry’s rush attempts for this Week 1 game. Henry faced Buffalo twice last season. During the regular season, he carried the ball 24 times for 199 yards. In the playoffs, when games are typically played at a slower pace, he had 16 carries for 84 yards. It’s clear that Henry is a massive part of Baltimore’s offensive game plan against anyone, but especially vs. the Bills. Henry has showed no signs of slowing down — he cleared 17.5 rush attempts in his final 6 regular season games last year. Justice Hill plays a lot of snaps for the Ravens but he is mostly used in the passing game. I think we see Henry get a healthy dose of carries in this matchup.
Pick: Derrick Henry over 17.5 rush attempts (-102 on FanDuel)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
