The Chargers and Chiefs will meet in Brazil on Friday night in the second game of the NFL season.
It will also be the NFL’s second game in Brazil — the Packers and Eagles played there last fall before a sold-out crowd of just under 50,000 at Corinthians Arena. The NFL returns to Brazil in 2025 with an AFC West battle between a couple of teams who have playoff aspirations this season.
Chiefs vs. Chargers betting preview, picks
Here’s what you should know before betting on this game;
Kansas City Chiefs fact sheet
- Kansas City won the AFC again last season despite putting up some pedestrian numbers offensively. The Chiefs were 9th in EPA per play on the season but still won 15 games during the regular season. KC also posted a point differential of just +59 on the season. For context, the Lions also won 15 games with a +222 point differential. The Broncos won just 10 games with a +114 point differential.
- Patrick Mahomes quietly had one of the worst seasons of his career last year. Among 28 quarterbacks who attempted at least 300 passes in 2024-25, Mahomes came in 26th in average air yards per attempt (6.2). He was behind the likes of Cooper Rush and Daniel Jones, among others, in that category.
- The Chiefs did not have star receiver Rashee Rice for most of last season due to injury. Rice will make his return at some point this season, but he’s out for the first 6 games as a result of a league suspension.
- KC’s biggest offensive line loss this season was Joe Thuney, who racked up almost 1,300 snaps last season at guard. Kingsley Suamataia is set to join the Chiefs’ starting lineup this season, as is rookie Josh Simmons.
- Defensively, the Chiefs return almost all of their key pieces from last year’s team. The only exceptions are safety Justin Reid (1,186 snaps) and defensive lineman Tershawn Wharton (780 snaps).
- Kansas City was merely good — but far from great — on defense last year, too. The Chiefs ranked 15th in EPA per play and 13th in success rate on defense in 2024.
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Los Angeles Chargers fact sheet
- The Chargers went 11-6 last season and made the playoffs in their first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh.
- Justin Herbert returns as LA’s starting quarterback. Herbert remained one of the NFL’s most ball-secure starting quarterbacks last season with a league-leading INT rate of just 0.6%. He also set a career high in yards per attempt last year with 7.7.
- The Chargers used their first round pick on running back Omarion Hampton, so he’s likely to get the bulk of the work at that position this year. Former Alabama star Najee Harris is also on the roster, although he’s been recovering from an eye injury.
- Wide receiver is something of a question mark beyond Ladd McConkey and veteran Keenan Allen. The Chargers did draft 2 intriguing rookie receivers this year — KeAndre Lambert-Smith out of Auburn and Tre’ Harris out of Ole Miss.
- On the offensive line, the Chargers had a devastating injury early in camp as star tackle Rashawn Slater suffered a season-ending injury. Trey Pipkins is set to take his place at right tackle (Joe Alt is at left tackle) but that remains a significant question mark going into this game.
- The Chargers spent a lot of money in free agency on their defense, bringing in the likes of Da’Shawn Hand, Donte Jackson and Elijah Molden, among others. They also brought back Khalil Mack on a lucrative 1-year deal.
- The Chargers were largely excellent on defense in 2024-25. They ranked 5th in the NFL in EPA-per-play on defense and 7th in success rate. Jesse Minter, who worked under Harbaugh at Michigan, is back with the Chargers for another season as defensive coordinator.
Chiefs vs. Chargers best bets
Xavier Worthy is a player I haven’t mentioned yet, but he could be in for a big Year 2. One of the fastest receivers in the league, Worthy has become a very interesting weapon for the Chiefs — particularly early in games. In 5 of his last 7 games last year, Worthy earned multiple first-quarter targets and recorded at least 12 receiving yards 4 times. Rashee Rice is still absent, Travis Kelce is another year older and DeAndre Hopkins is no longer on the team. I think Worthy will be featured early and often in this offense and should go over this number.
Pick: Xavier Worthy first quarter receiving yards over 11.5 (-114 on FanDuel)
As I mentioned above, Herbert is arguably the single most ball-secure quarterback in the entire league. Last season he threw 3 picks in 504 pass attempts. His INT rate has been 1.5% or better in 3 consecutive seasons. Herbert’s expected to throw about 30 passes in this game (based on current betting markets), which puts his expected INT total at roughly 0.45. Way more often than not, Herbert isn’t going to throw a pick in this spot.
Pick: Justin Herbert under 0.5 interceptions thrown (-129 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
