Thursday Night Football is back this week with another excellent matchup featuring the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers.
Both Washington and Green Bay are two of the leading favorites to come out of the NFC this year, according to most sports betting apps. Both of these teams made the playoffs last year and have high hopes again in 2025-26.
Here’s where you can get the best price in the spread, total and money line markets for this game:
Commanders vs. Packers betting predictions
Here’s everything you need to know before betting on this Thursday Night Football game:
Commanders fact sheet
- Washington won last week, beating the Giants 21-6. Jayden Daniels followed up his sensational rookie season with another stellar game: 223 passing yards on 30 attempts plus 68 rushing yards on 11 carries.
- Commanders preseason darling Jacory Croskey-Merritt had an awesome NFL debut as he rushed for 82 yards and 1 touchdown on 10 carries.
- Terry McLaurin was involved in a contract dispute for much of training camp and was not heavily involved in Washington’s Week 1 offense. He caught 2 passes for 27 yards on 4 targets.
- Washington traded for left tackle Laremy Tunsil this offseason to help protect Daniels’ blindside. So far, so good. Tunsil earned an 84.1 pass blocking grade from PFF in Week 1.
- The Commanders led the NFL in success rate on first and second down in Week 1 (63%).
- Washington’s defense was excellent against a Giants offense that many expect to be better in 2025. The Commanders ranked 7th in EPA-per-play defense in Week 1. Russell Wilson threw for just 168 yards on 37 attempts.
Packers fact sheet
- Green Bay dominated a strong Lions team in Week 1, particularly on defense. The Packers, led by new acquisition Micah Parsons, limited Detroit to a 42.4% success rate in Week 1. For context, Detroit was No. 3 in the NFL last year in that category at 49.6%.
- The Lions couldn’t run the ball at all on Green Bay. Running backs Jamyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 20 carries but each only managed a little over 2 yards per attempt.
- Offensively, Jordan Love was great on a relatively low volume of attempts. He threw for 188 yards on 22 passes and kept the offense ahead of the chains all day. Green Bay’s average third-down distance was just 4.5 yards, which led the league in Week 1.
- Love’s attempts also averaged 11.5 yards through the air, which was second in the league in Week 1.
- Ten different Packers caught a pass in Week 1, but none hauled in more than 3 (Jayden Reed was the only receiver to do so).
- Josh Jacobs had a relatively quiet day, rushing for 66 yards and 1 touchdown on 19 carries. He averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt, but Green Bay finished the week 7th in rushing success rate (47.8%).
Commanders vs. Packers best bets
Daniels threw the ball 30 times in Week 1 despite Washington protecting a lead for most of the game. The Commanders were also able to run it at will against the Giants — they finished the week ranked No. 3 in the NFL in rushing EPA and rushing success rate. And still, Kliff Kingsbury dialed up a game plan that featured about 50% passing plays. I think we’ll see that rate increase this week, especially if Green Bay has a lead in the second half.
Pick: Jayden Daniels over 31.5 pass attempts (-105 on Caesars)
Josh Jacobs gets plenty of usage in this Green Bay offense but he wasn’t overly efficient last week. He averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground and caught 1 pass for 4 yards. He’s going up against a Washington defensive front that was able to completely shut down New York’s rushing attack last week. It’s also worth noting Green Bay is dealing with multiple injuries to starting offensive linemen. The Packers had to play 7 offensive linemen at least 10 snaps last week and none of them received anything better than a decent run blocking grade from PFF.
Pick: Josh Jacobs under 96.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 on Bet Rivers)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
