The NFL regular season is winding down, so it’s a good time to take a look at the prediction market space in an effort to evaluate the top Super Bowl contenders.
This story will look at current Super Bowl market prices on Kalshi — a predictions market that’s live in all 50 US states.
While the Broncos and Patriots currently have the best records in the NFL (both teams are 11-2), Kalshi’s market doesn’t show either of those franchises among the top Super Bowl contenders.
Super Bowl odds
While prices expressed in this story are subject to change at any time, this chart showing the top contenders will update automatically based on game results, injuries and other market factors:
Let’s break down why Los Angeles, Seattle and Buffalo are currently the top Super Bowl contenders on Kalshi.
Los Angeles Rams
As of this writing, the Rams are far and away the favorite on Kalshi to win the Super Bowl in 2026. They’re currently trading at 19 cents per contract (correct predictions are paid out at $1 per contract, so this is roughly 5-to-1 odds in traditional sports betting terms).
The Rams have a QB-head coach combo that has won the Super Bowl before in Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. Their offense has also been elite during the regular season. The Rams rank No. 2 in the NFL in EPA-per-play entering Week 15. By EPA, the Rams are the No. 4 drop-back offense in the NFL and have the No. 1 rushing attack.
Defensively, the Rams rank 3rd in the NFL in EPA-per-play allowed and No. 6 in success rate. Per ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index, the Rams have faced the 12th most-difficult strength of schedule so far this season.
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Seattle Seahawks
As of publication, the Seahawks are the No. 2 Super Bowl contender on Kalshi with a price of 12 cents per contract.
While Seattle has advanced metrics that rival the Rams on both sides of the ball, there’s not quite as much confidence in the market in the Seahawks’ leadership. Seattle brought in quarterback Sam Darnold this offseason and he’s had a very strong campaign so far this year. However, Kalshi traders no doubt remember Darnold’s regular-season success fading with the Vikings in 2024. Seattle also has an inexperienced head coach in Mike Macdonald. He’s very well-respected but is in just his second year as a head coach.
Still, the Seahawks are a force to be reckoned with and could end up securing a first-round bye in the NFC. Since Week 6, the Seahawks have the No. 1 EPA-per-play defense in the NFL.
Buffalo Bills
While the Bills are unlikely to even win their own division, they’re still the AFC’s most likely Super Bowl winner according to Kalshi. They are currently priced at 10 cents per contract to win the Super Bowl.
The Bills have arguably the best regular-season quarterback in the NFL in Josh Allen. While he’s been unable to get past Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, that may not be an issue this year as the Chiefs are currently expected to miss the playoffs (19% on Kalshi).
The Bills are closing in on their 7th straight season of 10+ wins in the regular season. Statistically, the Bills have a borderline-elite offense (5th in EPA-per-play) and a mediocre defense (16th in EPA-per-play).
Buffalo’s main culprit this season has been rushing defense. It ranks 28th in the NFL in EPA-per-rush allowed. Fortunately for the Bills, pass defense is regarded as more important than rushing defense and they rank 7th in that category entering this weekend.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
