It’s nice to be ranked No. 4 in the country.
And LSU is off to a nice start in achieving that ranking. But it’s going to take more than a nice performance for the Tigers (4-0 overall, 1-0 in SEC) to beat No. 13 Ole Miss on Saturday in Oxford and prove worthy of their status.
They may well prove to be worthy of that ranking, but looking back on the first third of the schedule, the hype about LSU isn’t based on a whole lot.
If we remove name recognition, reputation and history and look strictly at the numbers, here’s what the Tigers have:
- A victory over a 1-3 team (Clemson)
- A victory over a 3-1 team from Conference USA (Louisiana Tech)
- A victory over another 1-3 team (Florida)
- A victory over a 2-2 FCS team (Southeastern Louisiana)
LSU has yet to score more than 23 points against an FBS opponent.
A win over the Rebels (4-0, 2-0) would be the Tigers’ most significant outcome of the season, and there are a few things they can do along the way that would be especially significant.
They can finally show that they have a championship-caliber running game as they face the No. 120 run defense in the country.
Head coach Brian Kelly said before the season that he was hoping that someone would emerge as the “bell cow” among the running backs. The most likely candidate to do so was Caden Durham, who broke out in Week 3 last season as a freshman, rushing for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns to spur a 36-33 victory at South Carolina.
Durham surged to the head of a running back committee and wound up leading the team with 753 rushing yards and tying for the team lead with 6 rushing touchdowns.
Through 4 games this season, Durham as been the closest thing to a bell cow, leading the team with 52 attempts, but he is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game because of an ankle injury he suffered during the 56-10 home victory against Southeastern Louisiana last Saturday.
Ju’Juan Johnson is second with 16 carries and Harlem Berry has 15. Last week Johnson had a team-high 8 carries (featuring 2 touchdowns), followed by 7 each for Berry and Durham.
Whether Durham or someone else becomes a bell cow, or Kelly never finds one and uses a committee instead, this game should be a turning point for the running game – if a turning point is going to happen.
The Tigers had their most productive game on the ground last week, accumulating a still unimpressive 135 yards, though they did have 4 rushing touchdowns, 2 more than they had in the first 3 games combined.
On average Ole Miss is giving up 190.5 rushing yards per game. An average performance by the Rebels’ run defense would mean a season-best by far for the Tigers’ rush offense.
LSU could also vindicate its ranking if quarterback Garrett Nussmeier plays like the leading candidate for national awards that he is purported to be. He’s a very good player, but he has not been at his best for much of the first 4 weeks.
He ranks No. 74 in the country in passing efficiency, behind both Rebels quarterbacks (Austin Simmons and Trinidad Chambliss). Kelly revealed last week that Nussmeier has been playing through a torso injury, though the coach downplayed its effect on Nussmeier’s play.
Though the opposition was last week was weak, Nussmeier had season-highs in completion percentage (80.6%, 25-for-31), passing yards (273) and touchdown passes (3) and ran for his first touchdown of the season.
One of the areas in which the Tigers have performed to the level of their ranking is on defense, where they rank No. 9 in the country in scoring (9.25 points per game) and No. 17 in total yards (246.2 yards per game).
They will be tested much more this week than they have been previously. Ole Miss is No. 9 in the country in total offense (543 yards per game) and No. 12 in scoring (44.8).
LSU might well be an elite team that will be a serious national championship contender.
We’ll have a better idea after Saturday.
