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SEC Parlay of the Week: Our 4 favorite plays for Week 1

Published: Aug 30, 2025 · 9:57 AM EDT

Well friends, after a brutal 8-month wait, college football is finally back, and boy do we have an intriguing slate of games to feast on during this opening weekend of the 2025 season. And if you’re anything like me, then you’ve probably been perusing your favorite sports betting apps for weeks on end now, eyeballing the matchups you want to have some action on this weekend. If that’s the case, then you’ve come to the right place.

Each and every week during the 2025 college football season, I’ll be here to deliver to you what I believe is a money-making parlay looking only at games featuring the SEC, because hey, it just means more, right?

Let’s dive in!

All betting lines courtesy of BetMGM.

Leg 1: Toledo +10 (-110) vs. Kentucky

This probably isn’t the best way to endear myself to what figures to be a pro-SEC readership here at Saturday Down South, but I’m living smack dab in the middle of MAC Country, baby! I’m riding with the Rockets to cover on the road down in Lexington against Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. We’ve already seen 3 MAC teams – Buffalo, Ohio and Miami (OH) – cover against Power 4 opponents on the road this week, and to me, that’s a good sign.

Toledo is returning 63% of its production from a 2024 squad that went 8-5 and finished the season with a 6OT bowl win. There is a total of 177 starts on the Rockets’ roster, including 15 from sixth-year senior quarterback Tucker Gleason, who grew up down south in Tampa, Florida, and started his college career at Georgia Tech before transferring to Toledo after just 1 season.

Since Jason Candle became the head coach at Toledo in 2016, he’s led his team to outright upset victories over Iowa State, BYU, Arkansas, Pittsburgh and Mississippi State, the last 2 of which came during the 2024 season. In those 2 wins, Gleason threw for 636 yards, 5 touchdowns and just 1 interception while adding 74 yards and a touchdown on the ground. I think he’s got the chops to perform in a hostile environment.

Meanwhile, Mark Stoops is only 4 games over .500 in his 12 seasons in Lexington, and it’s not unconceivable that the Wildcats may be looking beyond Toledo to Ole Miss in Week 2. Now I hear you — Kentucky is a perfect 11-0 against the MAC in Stoops’ tenure, and the Wildcats have won those games by an average of 21 points. But this particular Toledo team could be the best of that bunch that the Wildcats have faced, and there’s not much to be excited about another Kentucky team that relied heavily on the transfer portal to bolster an otherwise so-so roster.

By the way… this line opened at 12.5 and has been bet down to as low as 9.5 in some markets. This tells me I’m on the right track here.

Leg 2: Alabama -13.5 (-115) vs. Florida State

Both the Tide and the Seminoles failed to meet expectations last year, though Alabama did have a case to make the College Football Playoff at season’s end, while Florida State stumbled to a 2-10 record — its worst season in 50 years.

I don’t think the stink of 2024 will linger at Alabama. I believe in Kalen DeBoer, even if there are quite a few frenzied fans in Tuscaloosa already calling for his head. I can’t say the same about Florida State, and while I’m aware that new Noles offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn got the best of Bama on numerous occasions back when he was coaching at Auburn, there isn’t a single returning starter from last season on his roster. Sure, this isn’t necessarily unheard of in the transfer portal/NIL era, but still, it feels like it will take time for the offense to jell with so many new faces in the picture.

Meanwhile, Alabama returns 13 starters from last season, including 7 on a defense that includes possible All-SEC performers such as Domani Jackson, LT Overton, Deontae Lawson and Bray Hubbard.

Even as Bama finished 2024 with its first sub-10 win season since 2007, the Tide still predictably put up a ton of points in DeBoer’s first year at the helm. With some offensive continuity and a promising young quarterback in Ty Simpson, it wouldn’t surprise me if Alabama’s CFP hiatus ended this year.

And it would surprise me if Florida State managed to keep this game within 2 scores.

Leg 3: Over 60.5 points in Ole Miss vs. Georgia State (-110)

Admittedly, getting to 61 points in a game that should stop being competitive by the 8 minute mark of the 1st quarter is potentially ambitious ask, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get there. And in recent history, Lane Kiffin‘s teams have gotten there.

In their last 10 matchups against non-power conference teams in the month of September, the Rebels have been running over their opponents at a ridiculous rate. In those 10 games, Ole Miss has scored an average of 52.7 points per game, clearing 60 points on its own 3 times. Round up and say Ole Miss scores 53 points on Saturday… all we need is Georgia State to put 8 points on the board and we’re golden.

Call me optimistic, but I think it’s possible. Coach Dell McGee’s squad hung 36 on Vanderbilt in a win over the Commodores last year, and it has a returning senior quarterback (Christian Veilleux) who attended the Manning Passing Academy over the summer.

Looks like a recipe for a game that could get to 70 points without much of an issue.

Leg 4: South Carolina Moneyline (-300) vs. Virginia Tech

Who doesn’t love some Beamer Ball? On Sunday afternoon in Atlanta, Shane Beamer‘s Gamecocks will be facing the Hokies, a program that he played for as a walk-on once upon a time and was coached by his father, Frank Beamer, from 1987 to 2015. It should be an interesting litmus test for a pair of teams that have hopes of being in the mix for a conference title in 2025.

Virginia Tech isn’t as talented of a team as South Carolina is, but there is a path to the ACC title game thanks to a relatively soft conference schedule that avoids the likes of Clemson and SMU, and sees both Miami and Louisville coming to Blacksburg. The Gamecocks’ path to the College Football Playoff will be treacherous, but it’s easy to see, and it starts with handling business in a neutral-site game against a team that has underperformed in 3 seasons under head coach Brent Pry.

My somewhat hot take is that LaNorris Sellers may be the best player in the country, and he’ll somehow find a way to lead this team through a gauntlet in October and November that includes matchups with LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Clemson. But there’s something about this opening week matchup that has me a little weary of taking South Carolina -7.5. Maybe it’s the fact that the Gamecocks nearly stumbled in their home opener last year, defeating Old Dominion by just 4 points, or maybe it’s just the heightened emotions that come with coaching against your alma mater.

I think the Gamecocks win this one, but in honor of the legendary Lee Corso, who will be calling it a career this weekend, it might end up being a little bit closer than the experts think.

Total odds: +800

Sonny Giuliano