SEC QB Rankings, Week 3: Can DJ Lagway rescue Billy Napier and Florida … again?
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-16 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct. Previously: Week 1 | Week 2.
1. John Mateer, Oklahoma
It’s not quite right to describe Mateer as a revelation, considering his prolific 2024 output at Washington State is the entire reason Oklahoma invested in him and his former Wazzu offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle in the first place. But given how few people actually saw anything he did at Washington State, Saturday’s 24-13 win over Michigan was his introduction to the vast majority of the country, and he aced the test. His dual-threat skillset on full display, Mateer accounted for 77% of the Sooners’ total offense and all 3 OU touchdowns. He served as a workhorse runner; he made plays under pressure; he completed passes to every area of the field. There’s a reason he now has the 2nd-lowest odds to win the Heisman.
He was not perfect — see some scattershot accuracy, including an air-mail interception that might or night not have been his fault. But he was essentially the guy Oklahoma thought it was getting when it bet the farm on Mateer (and the system that developed him) over the offseason: A full-service, high-volume operator who can win in multiple ways. That’s a huge upgrade over last year, and if nothing else gives the Sooners a fighting chance every time out against a nightmare of a schedule that, on the other side of this weekend’s trip to Temple, features 8 currently ranked teams in the last 9 games. There’s a long way to go, but Step 1 could not have gone much better.
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Last week: 3⬆
2. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
LSU’s 27-16 loss at Florida last November was a low point for the Tigers, punctuating a 3-game losing streak that briefly looked like it might tank Brian Kelly‘s administration. For his part part, Nussmeier was arguably at his worst in The Swamp, finishing with season-lows for total offense (207 yards) and yards per attempt (5.5) and a season-high for sacks (7) in the loss. This weekend’s return date in Baton Rouge arrives with the Tigers riding significantly higher, sitting pretty in the polls on the strength of their Week 1 win at Clemson. (Florida, on the other hand … well, see below.) The opener was more of a triumph for LSU’s defense than it was for Nussmeier, who hit his marks while the D turned in its best big-game performance in ages. But at some point, if LSU’s going to pull off the season it hopes, it’s going to need him to return the favor.
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Last week: 1⬇
3. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Sellers kept it close to the vest in Week 2 in a sluggish, rain-delayed win over South Carolina State, finishing 11-for-19 for 128 yards and a touchdown. Coulda been better, as certain scouts detailed at length. Sorry, the rankings are not grinding tape of a perfunctory outing against South Carolina State! Next up: A actual test in the SEC opener against Vanderbilt.
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Last week: 2⬇
4. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
We’ll see how it plays out in conference play, but Saturday night’s 44-20 romp at Virginia Tech felt like to me like the moment Vanderbilt graduated from plucky overachiever to just a straight-up solid football team. The ‘Dores thoroughly dominated the second half, rallying from a 20-10 deficit to outscore Tech 34-0 after halftime. It was every bit as lopsided as that score implies: The offense scored touchdowns on all 5 second-half possessions, while the defense held the Hokies without so much as a first down until the dying minutes of garbage time. By then, the home crowd in Blacksburg had largely abandoned the premises in disgust.
Besides emptying out what used to be one of the most hostile stadiums in the country, one of the reasons the performance resonated was the fact that it was not the latest episode of We Turnt With Diego Pavia. Pavia was just his usual, efficient self, finishing 12-for-18 passing with 2 touchdowns, 254 total yards and a stellar 88.7 QBR – an eerily similar stat line to the one he put up in last year’s overtime win over Virginia Tech in Nashville. The difference between a nail-biter at home and a blowout on the road was the rest of the team rising to the Pavia’s level. The ‘Dores outgained Tech by 242 yards overall and nearly 4.5 yards per play, with a majority of their output on offense coming on the ground – easily the most complete Vandy outing since the pandemic, and arguably long before that.
Pavia is now 7-5 in his career as a starter against power-conference opponents, including New Mexico State’s memorable upset at Auburn in November 2023, probably the biggest reason Vanderbilt took a chance on him in the first place. His team was not favored to win one of those games – in fact, he’s been a double-digit underdog in 5 of the 7 wins. This is still an outfit that’s going to have to pull a series of upsets to get anywhere in the SEC standings. (And let’s be real, this edition of Virginia Tech would be the undisputed doormat of the SEC.) But we’re talking about plausible upsets now, not monumental stunners to snap a historic losing streak. And the more we see, the more plausible they get.
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Last week: 7⬆
5. Taylen Green, Arkansas
Green is off to a great start statistically: No. 1 in the SEC in touchdowns, pass efficiency, Total QBR and EPA; No. 2 in total offense. He still looks like prime Kaepernick on the hoof, capable of going the distance or hurdling a dude on any given play at 6-6, 224 pounds. It’s tempting to imagine him finally putting it all together in conference play and turning the Razorbacks into dark-horse Playoff contenders. But we still do have to imagine it, because running up the score on the likes of Alabama A&M and Arkansas State only counts for so much. It gets real this weekend at Ole Miss, in one of the SEC’s sneaky good rivalries.
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Last week: 6⬆
6. Arch Manning, Texas
After a week of relentless scrutiny, Texas got off to a nervous start against San José State. A big gain on the first play of the game was wiped out by a holding penalty; Manning’s first attempt was a badly overthrown deep ball; the Longhorns’ next series ended with a flat-out drop on 3rd down. The home crowd in Austin was palpably on edge. It didn’t last: Manning hit paydirt on the 3rd series on an 83-yard touchdown pass to his new favorite target, a wide-open Parker Livingstone, and the entire state collectively exhaled. (I live in Texas, a huge whoosh rattled my windows about the moment Livingstone crossed the goal line.) Meanwhile, the defense made the offense’s life as easy as possible by forcing turnovers on each of SJSU’s next 3 possessions. The ‘Horns turned all 3 takeaways into short-field touchdowns — a net of 28 points in a little under 5 minutes.
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Last week: 5⬇
7. DJ Lagway, Florida
Once you tally up the untimely penalties, multiple drops, costly bloopers, dubious clock management and outright stupidity in Florida’s 18-16 loss to USF, Lagway looks like the least of the Gators’ problems. So many discreet events had to go wrong to arrive at that result that his worst play – an air-mail interception in the 3rd quarter that effectively served as a punt, and which USF didn’t come close to converting into points – barely even makes the list.
But if Lagway wasn’t the source of the Gators’ angst, he wasn’t the solution, either. All things considered, conditions were about as favorable on Saturday as they’re likely to be for the rest of the season. He was exceedingly well-protected, facing pressure on just 3 of his 38 drop-backs, per PFF. He had run support courtesy sophomore workhorse Jaden Baugh (93 yards on 5.2 per carry), yielding a significant advantage in time of possession. The defense allowed 1 touchdown. Florida never trailed at any point before the clock hit triple zeroes.
And yet: 16 points vs. a 17-point underdog from the AAC. Three extended drives in the first half all ended in field goals. The offense bogged down in the second half, going 3-and-out 3 times and never advancing beyond the USF 45-yard line; Florida’s only touchdown came as a result of a short field after a long punt return (made longer by a personal foul penalty against the Bulls) set up the offense at the USF 20. One one of those 3-and-outs was their last possession, on which Lagway threw 2 incomplete passes that stopped the clock when a first down might have iced the game. The Gators took over with a 2-point lead and 2:52 remaining, drained just 13 seconds before punting the ball away, and didn’t touch it again.
Even at the end, there were plenty of other targets for the locals’ wrath – freshman WR Vernell Brown III, who let a would-be dagger slip through his fingers on what turned out to be Florida’s last offensive snap; DL Brendan Bett, who singlehandedly extended the subsequent game-winning drive by hocking a loogie at a USF lineman with an official standing inches away; the defense in general for allowing the Bulls to march to the 2-yard line before lining up the decisive field goal, by that point a glorified PAT; and, of course, coach Billy Napier, who waited too long before futilely expending all 3 timeouts in the dying seconds.
Still, if this team has any chance of surviving a brutal stretch of games over the coming month, it needs more from its 5-star, face-of-the-program quarterback. Not counting the drop on his last attempt, Lagway was a pedestrian 3-for-10 on passes of 10+ air yards, generating none of the downfield sizzle that was the best part of his game in 2024 as a freshman. That version of Lagway gave Gators fans something to look forward to in the midst of a what was, until the end, a grim slog of a season. The version they saw on Saturday night looked ankle-deep in the murk. He might as well have been the guy they spent much of last year longing for him to replace, Graham Mertz.
That won’t cut it against the murderer’s row on deck, starting Saturday night in Death Valley. The margin for growing pains has run out. No more grading on a curve. It’s time for Napier’s prized prospect to start delivering on his promise – or else it’s going to be some other coach getting the credit when he finally does.
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Last week: 4⬇
8. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
A&M’s wideouts underwhelmed in 2024. So the Aggies went out and got a couple new ones, adding Mario Craver (Mississippi State) and KC Concepcion (NC State) via the portal. So far, so good: Through 2 games against UT-San Antonio and Utah State, Reed and backup Miles O’Neill have targeted Craver and Concepcion a combined 29 times, completing 22 of them for 381 yards and 6 touchdowns. Craver, a true sophomore, already has 5 receptions of 20+ yards, just 2 fewer than A&M’s team leader in that category last year. (Current Georgia Bulldog Noah Thomas, with 7.) The degree of difficulty ramps up starting with this weekend’s trip to Notre Dame, but the Aggies could not have asked for a more encouraging start.
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Last week: 8⬌
9. Beau Pribula, Missouri
Pribula is the biggest riser in this week’s rankings after lighting up the box score in a wild 42-31 win over “Border War” rival Kansas. In his first start against FBS competition, the Penn State transfer was dealing throughout, finishing 30/39 for 334 yards, 3 touchdowns and a viral reel full of dimes to show for it. Concerns that Pribula is more athlete than passer are rapidly receding.
Now, let’s be clear: The Jayhawks are more competitive these days than they were a few years ago, but mainly because of their offense; the defense allowed 28.6 points per game last year vs. Power 5 opponents and ranked 114th in pass efficiency defense. The secondary remains a fire hazard. Pribula’s first SEC start, against South Carolina, is still 2 weeks away following this weekend’s date against Louisiana. In the meantime, all lights are (tentatively) green.
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Last week: 14⬆
10. Jackson Arnold, Auburn
After impressing with his legs in the opener, Arnold won with his arm in Week 2, connecting on 24-of-28 passes for 252 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 42-3 thumping of Ball State. The Tigers are ranked this week (24th) for the first time since blowing a 28-3 lead to Mississippi State in November 2021 – the beginning of the end of the Bryan Harsin administration. They should be next week, too, following another nonconference tune-up against South Alabama. Arnold’s return to Oklahoma on Sept. 20 is already blinking red on the calendar.
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Last week: 10⬌
11. Ty Simpson, Alabama
Simpson was flawless in Bama’s 73-0 massacre of UL-Monroe, which it bears pointing out — and I cannot stress this enough — is UL-Monroe. Still: No matter who’s on the other side of the line, 17-for-17 passing for 226 yards and 3 touchdowns is a gold-star performance. In Simpson’s case, it was also a convincing rebound from his dismal debut as a starter at Florida State. (Credit to his o-line, as well, which earned even worse reviews in Tallahassee but kept Simpson completely clean on Saturday. Amazing the revelations that come from a consistently clean pocket.) He called it a night at halftime with the Crimson Tide leading 42-0, after which backups Austin Mack and Keelon Russell combined to go 12-for-16 with 4 touchdowns in garbage time. All of the above is dust in the wind as of opening kickoff against Wisconsin.
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Last week: 13⬆
12. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee
Vols fans are enjoying a nice round of schadenfreude at the expense of their ex, Nico Iamaleava, who has presided over an 0-2 start at UCLA in which the Bruins have been outscored by a combined 30 points in losses to Utah and UNLV. Meanwhile, Aguilar — who transferred to UCLA from Appalachian State over the winter with the intention of starting for the Bruins before Iamaleava’s unexpected arrival over the summer bumped him from the top of the depth chart — is loving life in Knoxville following comfortable wins over Syracuse and East Tennessee State. It’s all wine and roses when the new guy is 2-0.
Of course, if the situations were reversed, Tennessee would still be a perfectly content 2-0 right now with Iamaleava, and UCLA would very likely still be a deflated 0-2 with Aguilar. (For what it’s worth, while Aguilar is predictably faring better in the conventional stats, the one accessible QB metric that adjusts for strength of schedule, ESPN’s Total QBR, currently has them separated by a rounding error; Aguilar ranks 45th nationally, while Iamaleava comes in at 48th.) Certainly nobody in Knoxville was ever going to grade Nico by whether he was good enough to win comfortably against Syracuse and ETSU. Let’s check back in with the locals’ thoughts on Aguilar after this weekend’s SEC opener against rival Georgia.
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Last week: 11⬇
13. Gunner Stockton, Georgia
Stockton is every bit the wild card going into Week 3 as Aguilar. I tried to read the box score of Georgia’s 28-3 win over Austin Peay, but the numbers evaporated from the screen before my brain could register them. We’ll have a much firmer impression after Saturday.
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Last week: 9⬇
14. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State
I’m not sure what if anything else Shapen is going to accomplish as the Bulldogs’ starter before yielding the job to one of his touted backups, but I think it’s safe to say it’s not going to top the high drama of Saturday’s 24-20 upset over the defending Big 12 champ, Arizona State.
If there’s more where that came from, the nearest cardiac ward better be on standby like that one episode of The Pitt.
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Last week: 15⬆
15. Austin Simmons, Ole Miss
Simmons is a keeper, clearly, but his first season as QB1 is shaping up as a walk on the wild side. The good, so far: Explosive plays. He’s averaging 17.5 yards per completion, 3rd-best nationally and nearly 3 full yards better than any other SEC starter. The not-so-good: Accuracy and ball security, especially under pressure. Simmons’ 60% completion rate is well below the curve, and he’s served up multiple picks in both of Ole Miss’ wins over Georgia State and Kentucky. (He fumbled in both games, as well, although he’s yet to lose one.) That’s a lot of sophomore to work out of his system.
In fairness, part of the blame for both of Simmons’ interceptions in the Rebels’ 30-23 win at Kentucky also falls on his center, Brycen Sanders. On the first pick, Sanders dribbled the snap at his quarterback’s feet, forcing Simmons to drop his eyes, gather the ball off the turf, and lose track of UK safety Ty Bryant in the process.
On the 2nd pick — an obvious passing down, tellingly — Sanders was beaten instantly at the snap by Kentucky DT David Gusta, whose arrival in Simmons’ lap forced the equivalent of a pop fly to centerfield.
Both INTs came in the opening quarter; Kentucky capitalized on both to put Ole Miss in a 10-0 hole early in the 2nd. Simmons settled down after that, finishing 10-for-15 for 118 yards the rest of the way and running for the go-ahead (ultimately winning) touchdown late in the 3rd. Though even the positives could be a little hair-raising. Like the crucial 4th-and-1 completion that followed the 2nd pick, on which Simmons checked off an open receiver streaking down the hash marks in favor of a No! No! Yes! ball to the sideline.
That play gained 55 yards, set up Ole Miss’ first touchdown, and turned the tide of the game. Here’s guessing Lane Kiffin could live with his young QB never making that particular decision again.
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Last week: 12⬇
16. Zach Calzada, Kentucky
Calzada is day-to-day this week nursing a sore shoulder. (Right there with you, Zach.) Even at full health, though, his status for Week 3 against Eastern Michigan would still be TBD. Through 2 games, he’s averaging a limp 4.4 yards per attempt without a touchdown. In particular, he’s posed little threat throwing beyond the sticks, connecting on just 3-of-22 attempts of 10+ air yards. Before his injury against Ole Miss, it was borderline inexcusable that the Wildcats called on Calzada to put the ball in the air 30 times with RBs Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell averaging north of 5 yards per carry in a competitive game.
Either way, then, his days as QB1 might be numbered. Next man up is Cutter Boley, a redshirt freshman who can only be described at this stage of his career as “tall.” He did get some meaningful reps at the tail end of 2024 in losses to Texas and Louisville (his first career start), and Mark Stoops told reporters this week that Boley will play in some capacity against EMU whether Calzada does or not. The writing is on the wall.
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Last week: 16⬌
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Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
