SEC QB Rankings, Week 4: Joey Aguilar is the guy Tennessee was waiting for Nico Iamaleava to become
By Matt Hinton
Published:
Quarterbacks: There are a lot of them! Each week throughout the season, we’ll help you keep the game’s most important position in perspective by ranking the SEC starters 1-16 according to highly scientific processes and/or pure gut-level instinct. Previously: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3.
1. John Mateer, Oklahoma
In 3 games as a Sooner, Mateer has accounted for roughly 78% of OU’s total offense, easily the highest individual share in the conference and among the highest in the nation. That’s slightly higher even than his 2024 share at Washington State, which came in at 75% in the regular season. (He didn’t play in the Cougars’ bowl game.) I would say it’s unsustainably high, especially over the course of a fully loaded SEC schedule. But then, it’s early still to be imposing limits on what the Heisman betting favorite might be capable of.
Last week: 1⬆
2. Taylen Green, Arkansas
Arkansas’ 41-35 loss at Ole Miss felt like a preview of the rest of Green’s season: A gonzo statistical effort signifying nothing opposite a flammable Razorbacks defense. All but 1 of the Hogs’ 9 offensive possessions in Oxford ended inside the Ole Miss 35-yard line, resulting in 5 touchdowns, 2 missed field goals (equaling the final margin in a 6-point loss), and a killer fumble to end the night. For his part, Green accounted for 305 yards passing, 115 more on the ground, 2 touchdowns and a 96.0 QBR rating, best among SEC starters in Week 3. According to ESPN’s Win Probability metric, Arkansas’ chances peaked just before halftime at 37.5%.
Looks like it’s just gonna be that kind of year. Through 3 weeks, Green ranks No. 1 or 2 nationally in total offense, total touchdowns, Total QBR and EPA, as well as rushing yards by a quarterback. Even at that pace, though, at this point the best the Hogs can hope for is that it’s enough juice to put them on the right side of enough shootouts to eke out a trip to a bowl game — likely with an interim head coach at the helm.
Last week: 5⬆
3. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
Pavia is never going to break the bank statistically, or suddenly wake up one morning as a first-round prospect. He just keeps getting the job done. Saturday’s 31-7 romp at South Carolina was his 7th win at Vandy in a game the ‘Dores were tabbed as underdogs, and the most convincing. It was Vanderbilt’s first win by 20+ points over an SEC opponent since 2018; first win in an SEC opener since 2011; and first road win over a ranked opponent since 2007. On Sunday, Vandy debuted at No. 20 in the AP poll, its highest ranking at any point since the 2008 team climbed to No. 13 on the strength of a 5-0 start.
The ’08 team turned out to be a forgettable outfit that went on to finish unranked after losing 6 of its last 8 . This team? TBD. But the outlook is certainly better than “forgettable.” If nothing else, after outscoring Virginia Tech and South Carolina by a combined 65-7 over the last 6 quarters — both on the road — the underdog narrative is giving way to straight-up respect. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Vandy a 27.8% chance to make the Playoff! (ESPNBet lists Vandy’s odds to make the Playoff at +1100.) And that number is only going to keep going up over the next few weeks, with presumptive wins over Georgia State and Utah State clearing the way to 5-0 heading into a Week 6 grudge match at Alabama. As it is, just getting the Commodores to the point where they can look forward to a meaningful October game at Bama as anything other than spoilers might have already clinched Pavia’s case for the title of best quarterback in school history.
Last week: 4⬆
4. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Brian Kelly made a point of dressing down a reporter on Saturday night for leading off the postgame press conference with a question about the Tigers’ struggles on offense. Which, fine: A 10-point win over Florida is worth defending on its own terms. (Again, that margin covered the point spread.) LSU’s defense is vastly improved and has held all 3 opponents to date to a single touchdown. Harold Perkins Jr.’s return from a torn ACL in 2024 along with key portal additions in the secondary have had the intended effect so far.
But Kelly protests too much, probably because on some level he recognizes that, for a team with championship ambitions, the offense is a red flag. LSU ranks last or next-to-last in the SEC in total offense, scoring offense, rushing offense, pass efficiency, yards per play and red-zone touchdown percentage. Nussmeier, a would-be Heisman candidate, has attempted more passes than any other SEC quarterback, but ranks at or near the bottom of the conference in touchdowns (3), yards per attempt (6.5), and passer rating (125.3). Confounding, considering last season he easily became the latest Tiger to throw for 3,000 yards and just the 2nd to top 4,000. His lowlight reel on Saturday night was nothing compared to, say, DJ Lagway’s (see below), but it did include an egregious interception that snuffed out a potential scoring drive in the 4th quarter. For a fi5thfth-year senior, it was inexcusable.
Seventeen points in a defensively driven win at Clemson? No complaints. But the opener remains the Tigers’ best outing. In Week 2, they settled for 23 points against a 37.5-point underdog, Louisiana Tech. In Week 3, LSU managed just 10 first downs against Florida, didn’t score after halftime, and had no ground game to speak of until sophomore RB Caden Durham popped a 51-yard gain on what was effectively the last snap of the game. That run alone doubled LSU’s rushing total for the night up to that point.
One thing the offense has going for it: Plenty of options at wideout, even if they’ve yet to make much impact as a group. Another thing: They’ve kept Nussmeier relatively clean. Per PFF, he’s faced the lowest pressure rate to date of any SEC starter despite the departure of both of last year’s starting tackles for the NFL Draft. Eventually — like, say a Week 5 trip to Ole Miss — they’re going to need their supposed strengths to start generating actual results.
Last week: 2⬇
5. Gunner Stockton, Georgia
Lots of movement in the rankings this week as speculation yields to actual results. The biggest riser: Stockton, on the strength of a breakout afternoon in Georgia’s instant-classic, 44-41 win at Tennessee in his first road start. Stockton’s only previous entry against an above-the-fold opponent, a 23-10 loss to Notre Dame in last year’s Playoff quarterfinals, was a dud. With the game on the line in Knoxville, he was a revelation:
Besides the high drama of that moment – a clutch, game-saving dime on 4th-and-6 in defiance of 100,000 braying partisans summoning every ounce of psychic energy they could muster to prevent it – the throw itself was as pure as they come. Up to that point, it wasn’t clear that Stockton had it in him. As usual, much of Georgia’s passing game was an extension of its running game: Altogether, 13 of his 23 completions came on attempts aimed behind the line of scrimmage, including his only other touchdown pass, a quick screen that Zachariah Branch and his perimeter blockers turned into a 36-yard TD. Per PFF, output on screens alone accounted for more than a third of Stockton’s 304 passing yards; no wonder his mediocre PFF grade (66.1) came in much lower than his stellar numbers in terms of passer rating (177.9) and QBR (93.1).
So, arm-wise, Stockton obviously has a lot more in common with Stetson Bennett than with Matt Stafford. Nothing wrong with that. As long as he’s capable of pulling out the dagger when he needs it, Bennett-worthy results are on the table.
Last week: 13⬆
6. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
If the ending had gone just a little differently – if, say, Notre Dame hadn’t botched a late PAT that prevented a 6-point lead from becoming 7, or a crucial defensive holding penalty against the Irish on 3rd-and-16 hadn’t extended Texas A&M’s final drive, or the Aggies’ last-gasp, do-or-die lob into the end zone had fallen incomplete – Reed’s performance at Notre Dame might just as easily have been noted for its inconsistency: He finished just 17-for-37 overall, and 2-for-9 on attempts of 20+ air yards, with a costly interception in the mix. PFF charged him with 4 “turnover-worthy” plays and a career-low 51.8 overall grade.
For once, though, the big swings did go A&M’s way, and instead of the latest in a long series of what-ifs the Aggies earned their most satisfying road win since Heisman winner Johnny Manziel beat Bama. When Reed did connect, it counted: His 17 completions netted 21.2 yards a pop, including big-play strikes on all 5 of A&M’s touchdown drives. (Only one of which came after halftime: The 13-play, 74-yard march to win.) His upgraded wide receivers had a lot to do with that, especially Mississippi State transfer Mario Craver, who generated 137 yards’ worth of YAC alone. But any lingering doubts about whether Mike Elko made the right choice last winter in sticking with Reed over former 5-star Conner Weigman or a big-ticket transfer are receding fast.
– – –
Last week: 8⬆
7. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee
The final score didn’t go his way, but Vols fans who bought low on Aguilar’s stock prior to Saturday’s 371-yard, 4-touchdown performance against Georgia were vindicated. He was on fire in the early going, connecting on his first 14 passes in a 21-point opening quarter. After Georgia rallied to take the lead, he responded in tit-for-tat fashion with go-ahead touchdown passes on consecutive drives in the 3rd and 4th. And after the Dawgs tied the game late in a moment of high drama (see above), Aguilar cooly oversaw the 14-play, 50-yard drive that put Tennessee in position to win with a walk-off field goal. If the ensuing kick had sailed through the uprights, they’d be stamping his face on license plates.
It wasn’t all good: The lowlight reel included 2 interceptions amid a sustained drought in the middle quarters. But as for the big question – can an obscure, 24-year-old journeyman from the G5 ranks whom no one in the state of Tennessee had ever heard of 6 months ago be a viable starter for a team thinking Playoff? – the initial answer is yes. Aguilar looked the part. He was comfortable on the big stage, across from the most talented roster in the college game. The Vols were comfortable putting one of the defining games of their season in his hands. He was at his best throwing downfield (5-for-6 on attempts of 20+ air yards, per PFF) and under pressure (all 4 touchdown passes came at the expense of a UGA blitz). He came in as a wild cards, and left as a future pro.
Just as important as far as the locals were concerned, Aguilar’s emergence allowed the Vols to ring the victory bell in the offseason breakup that resulted in their ex, Nico Iamaleava, forcing Aguilar out as QB1 at UCLA. Even before Saturday, much of the enthusiasm for Aguilar’s fast start in Knoxville was plainly a jilted response to Iamaleava’s departure by a fan base that – despite their financial and emotional investment in him over the previous 2 years, and despite his 11-3 record as a starter – is eager to prove they’re better off without him.
They might actutally be, and as a bonus they’ve enjoyed more than their fair share of schadenfreude over Iamaleava’s miserable start as a Bruin. Three weeks in, UCLA has yet to win a game or come particularly close, getting outscored by a combined 108-43 over the course of an 0-3 start. Iamaleava still hasn’t taken a snap with a lead. A nationally televised, 35-10 debacle against New Mexico in a mostly empty Rose Bowl last Friday night was the end of the road for head coach DeShaun Foster, who officially walked the plank Monday with a 5-10 record and a $7 million buyout to show for it. The program is at a dead stop with no identity, dwindling support, and not much to offer the next coach except a vague pitch about living/recruiting in L.A.
It’s not out of the question that the Bruins will finish the season winless, especially if players (including possibly Iamaleava) take Foster’s exit as a cue to shut it down ahead of the 4-game deadline for preserving a redshirt. The 30-day window for portaling out following a coaching change is wide open. Even if Iamaleava plays out the string, the odds that Nico remains in the fold in 2026 are somewhere between slim and none. Wherever he winds up next, it certainly won’t be with his people dictating the terms of a big payday.
Could Aguilar have singlehandedly saved the day if he’d remained a Bruin? Hardly. He’d be going down with the ship out there, coming and going while barely leaving a trace. But is there anyone in Tennessee who spent 2024 waiting for the light to come on for Iamaleava – and waiting, and waiting, all the way through the excruciating Playoff exit at Ohio State – who still regrets how things turned out? After Saturday, not a chance. Aguilar has a long way to go to get the Vols back to the CFP, especially if there are more games ahead where 38 points in regulation isn’t enough. He also just supplied more juice against the best team on the schedule than Iamaleava did all of last season. If they’d watched exactly the same performance by Nico, they’d be saying it was the one they’d been waiting for all along.
Last week: 12⬆
8. Beau Pribula, Missouri
Pribula continues to look right at home at Mizzou, but Saturday’s 52-10 win over Louisiana was the kind of massacre where the quarterback was merely an accessory to the crime. Offensively, the Tigers racked up 427 rushing on 62 carries, their largest single-game total on the ground since 2017. Defensively, they held the short-handed Ragin’ Cajuns to 4 first downs, 2 completed passes and 121 total yards – 84 of which came on this play.
Last week: 9⬆
9. Ty Simpson, Alabama
I’m not prepared to declare amnesty for Bama’s opening-day disaster at Florida State just yet. But Saturday’s thorough, 38-14 beatdown of Wisconsin was a giant step toward restoring confidence across the board, and in Simpson, in particular. Coming off a perfect 17-for-17 outing in Week 2 against UL-Monroe, Simpson was merely close to perfect against the Badgers, finishing 24-for-29 for 382 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 turnovers. And 2 of those 5 incompletions were drops.
Not for nothing, the biggest difference between the past 2 weeks and the opener arguably has less to do with Simpson than with his protection. Against FSU, he was under constant duress, especially after falling behind by 2 scores. Against Wisconsin, he and his next-level wideouts seemed to have all the time in the world to run what often amounted to 7-on-7 drills against an outgunned secondary. Per PFF, Simpson was 9-for-11 for 208 yards on attempts of 10+ air yards, and all 4 of his touchdown passes came from a clean pocket.
Of course, the question where the Tide are concerned has never been about their ceiling when things are clicking. It’s about their consistency — especially on the road, where they’ve lost 5 of their past 6 since last October outside of Tuscaloosa. Their next big test on that front comes in 2 weeks in the SEC opener at Georgia. But they’re in a significantly better place heading into Athens now than they were 2 weeks ago.
Last week: 11⬆
10. Jackson Arnold, Auburn
Arnold is off to a fine start in Hugh Freeze’s offense and yadda yadda yadda bring on the Sooners. Auburn’s trip to Oklahoma is 1 of only a small handful of FBS games this season pitting a transfer quarterback against his former team, and the most high-profile, by far. Given the bitter disappointment of Arnold’s OU tenure, a win in Norman would be about as satisfying as it gets.
Last week: 10⬌
11. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
South Carolina scored a touchdown on its opening series against Vanderbilt, then didn’t score again after Sellers was knocked out of the game with an apparent concussion.
In Sellers’ absence, the Gamecocks turned to 6th-year utility man Luke Doty, a former quarterback-turned-receiver who saw his first extended action behind center since 2021. Doty looked like a guy shaking off nearly 4 years’ worth of rust, committing 2 turnovers (1 interception, 1 fumble) and generally failing to move the needle in a lopsided loss. That snapped a 16-game winning streak against Vandy dating to 2008, knocking Carolina out of the AP Top 25 in the process.
Shane Beamer told reporters on Sunday that he’s “optimistic” Sellers will be available for this weekend’s trip to 3-0 Missouri, an absolute must-win for the Gamecocks to salvage any sliver of a chance of pulling off another dark-horse Playoff run. Vanderbilt at home was supposed to be the most winnable game on the conference schedule. An 0-1 start in conference play FPI now puts South Carolina chances of crashing the CFP against a stacked remaining schedule at just 1.2%. If Sellers isn’t back looking like himself at Mizzou, that number effectively drops to zero just 2 games into the conference slate.
Last week: 3⬇
12. Blake Shapen, Mississippi State
Mississippi State’s 63-0 win over Alcorn State was brisk work: The Bulldogs scored 9 touchdowns on just 53 offensive snaps, including 4 TD “drives” of 3 plays or less. Given that much of the damage came on the ground, that didn’t leave many opportunities for Shaken to pad his stats, or for his backups to get in much work in garbage time at all. Next up: One more nonconference layup against Northern Illinois before the SEC slate arrives in full force.
Last week: 14⬆
13. Austin Simmons, Ole Miss
Is Simmons looking over his shoulder? Lane Kiffin says no, but given the chance backup Trinidad Chambliss isn’t going to make it that easy. Chambliss, a dual-threat transfer from the D-II ranks, looked like an emerging folk hero in the Rebels’ shootout win over rival Arkansas, accounting for 415 total yards and 3 touchdowns (1 passing, 2 rushing) while Simmons nursed a sore ankle. Simmons’ only appearance against the Hogs came late in the 2nd quarter, when he replaced Chambliss for a handful of plays in the red zone; he promptly re-aggravated the ankle injury, but still managed to throw a short touchdown pass to a wide-open receiver before returning to the bench for the rest of the night.
Impressive as it was, 1 big game by Chambliss against a sketchy Arkansas defense only counts for so much. As of Monday, Simmons was “doing good,” per Kiffin, and on track to return to the starting lineup this weekend against Tulane. He and his coaches would love to put any lingering doubts about his status to bed. Regardless of whether they’re willing to admit it, though, the margin for error just got a little slimmer.
Last week: 15⬆
14. Arch Manning, Texas
Well, let’s start with the good news: Texas won comfortably against UTEP, 27-10, with Manning accounting for all 3 of the Longhorns’ touchdowns (1 passing, 2 rushing). The bad news: Pretty much every other aspect of his performance against a 6-touchdown underdog that should have been ripe for the picking.
Short of a full-blown, multi-interception meltdown, it was about as unsettling as it could be. On paper, Manning finished 11-for-25, averaged a meager 4.6 yards per attempt, and turned in the worst numbers of any SEC starter in Week 3 in terms of both efficiency (87.5) and QBR (26.5). He was 1-for-7 under pressure, per Pro Football Focus, and a dismal 2/9 on attempts of 10+ air yards, with the majority of his 114 passing yards coming on passes completed behind the line of scrimmage.
The real-time experience was worse — a parade of inaccuracy and bizarre decision-making that made his season-opening flop at Ohio State look crisp by comparison. He missed long, wide and late. His mechanics were a mess, devolving into a sketchy sidearm release that led to inaccuracy and tipped balls. Some viewers continued to wonder if he’s secretly nursing some kind of injury. (If he is, it remains an extremely well-kept secret.) He ignored or just didn’t recognize open receivers, and at one point attempted to improvise a wild, Manziel-esque scramble-drill that ended with a slow-motion disaster of a throw that seemed to hang in the air long enough for a UTEP defender to plot its exact coordinates.
By the end of the first half, the home crowd had seen enough to briefly boo him off the field following 1 of the Longhorns’ 11 failed 3rd-down conversions. The second half was better only in that it was too vanilla for anything to go haywire.
The thing is, as with DJ Lagway at Florida, the locals’ frustration stems from the fact that they’ve seen glimpses of what Manning is capable of, and it ain’t this. In his cameos last September in place of an injured Quinn Ewers, Arch looked confident, accurate and generally like a massively touted prospect with the world at his feet is supposed to look. It’s not like we don’t know the guy can throw the heck out of a football. But aside from a too-little, too-late rally in the 4th quarter at Ohio State, as the undisputed QB1 he has looked tentative and tight under pressure to live up to the hype.
Unlike Lagway, Arch is in a stable situation on a top-10 team with Playoff experience and everything to play for. Texas has 1 more nonconference tune-up against Sam Houston before the SEC opener at Florida. In this case, patience really is a virtue. But so is recalibrating expectations that were clearly too much, too soon.
Last week: 6⬇
15. DJ Lagway, Florida
There are forgettable nights. Then there are nights you only wish you could forget, that threaten to follow you around like a ghost until they’re all anyone can remember. For Lagway, Florida’s 20-10 loss at LSU was the latter. A perfunctory final score obscured a historic meltdown. Making his 10th career start in a must-win game that Florida’s defense gave him every opportunity to win, he melted down: 5 interceptions, each one arguably worse than the last.
The first pick, coming with Florida leading 3-0 midway through the opening quarter, was an ill-advised sideline shot left well short of its target — a bad throw, but ultimately not costly thanks to the defense. That would be the only mulligan. The 2nd pick, coming in a tie game just before halftime, was a laser directly into the hands of a waiting centerfield safety who’d sized it up from a mile away; LSU capitalized with a go-ahead field goal on the last play of the half. Pick No. 3, coming in a 13-10 game midway through the 3rd quarter, was the dagger: A badly telegraphed slant that might as well have arrived with postage paid and a GPS map to the end zone. The ensuing pick-6 extended the Tigers’ lead (and eventual winning margin) to double digits. Pick No. 4, coming midway through the 4th, was a hopeless lob into triple coverage that effectively ended any chance of a comeback. As for No. 5, well, see above. By that point, he was merely letting go of the wheel on a performance that was already nose-down in a ditch.
Excluding the slapstick heave in garbage time, Lagway’s first 4 INTs all had one thing in common: They all came on 3rd-and-long, obvious passing downs. But the scoreboard never dictated forcing throws until the very end, and only then because of the throws he’d forced when the game was there for the taking. Nor can he chalk up the miscues to pressure, at least from LSU’s defense — although the Tigers got in their fair share of harassment over the course of the game, all but the last of Lagway’s interceptions launched from a clean pocket. If he was feeling the heat, it was coming from inside the house.
Now, the usual move at this stage of the proceedings would be to appeal for patience. It’s 1 bad game, right? Lagway is young, obviously gifted, and still has plenty of time to grow into the enormous potential he flashed as a freshman, right? His beleaguered head coach, however, definitely does not have time to be patient. The trip to LSU was the first of a month-long, 4-game gauntlet against opponents ranked in the top 10 in the updated polls, with Miami (in Coral Gables), Texas and Texas A&M (in College Station) on deck. Forget about the November stretch against Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State: Barring a dramatic turn of events in the meantime, the odds of Billy Napier making it to November are plummeting by the week. Especially with 2 open dates between this weekend’s trip to Miami — which just demolished the same USF outfit that stunned the Gators in Week 2, for the record — and the Cocktail Party on Nov. 1. A week off is an invitation for heads to roll.
So while Lagway can still salvage a future that lives up to the hype, with each loss it gets a little likelier that it will be a different coach reaping the benefits. And if it comes to that, it might be time to consider whether that future will be unfolding somewhere else. The locals are beyond ready to move on from the Napier administration, whatever the cost. If that cost includes moving on from the quarterback who was supposed to save it, as well, suddenly it’s beginning to look like one they’ll be willing and able to afford.
Last week: 7⬇
16. Cutter Boley, Kentucky
Officially, Kentucky benched Zach Calzada in Week 3 due to injury. But the Wildcats were also in desperate need of some downfield pop, and Boley supplied it: Half of his dozen completions in a 48-23 win over Eastern Michigan gained 20+ yards, a column Calzada barely managed to tick in Weeks 1 and 2. Audition passed, it’ll be Boley’s job to lose on the other side of an open date, beginning with a Week 5 trip to South Carolina.
Last week: 16⬌
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
