Film Study: How and why Chad Kelly and the Rebels must attack Alabama to win

A weekly look inside an SEC playbook.

There is no instruction manual for beating Alabama. How can there be? Even if you wanted to write one, Bama losses have been so rare for so long that there’s barely a sample size to consult. And the few examples we have don’t unfold according to any sort of recognizable pattern.

Since 2008, the year the Saban Death Star became more or less fully operational, the Crimson Tide have gone down to defeat 12 times, fewer than any other program in the nation. And even after grouping those losses together in search of some kind of formula, some discernible trace of kryptonite, each one remains a distinct narrative unto itself.

They’ve lost an equal number of times (four) at home, on the road, and at neutral sites. They’ve lost in September, October, November, December, and January. They’ve lost ugly, low-scoring slugfests and wild, up-tempo shootouts. They’ve lost after falling behind early and after blowing a huge lead.

They’ve lost to Heisman-worthy headliners (Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel, Cam Newton) and to pedestrian interlopers who’ll be remembered for little else (Stephen Garcia, Jordan Jefferson, Bo Wallace). They’ve been gashed by the option and torched for career highs through the air. They’ve lost despite finishing in the black in total yards and turnover margin. They’ve lost to redshirt freshmen and third-stringers.  They’ve lost on trick plays and on plays no one could remember having ever seen before.

Naturally, for any team that’s suffered through a mere dozen losses in eight years, all of them are memorable — no Bama fan old enough to vote in this year’s elections needs to Google the name “Stephen Garcia.” But in Alabama’s case the setbacks are also distinct; They don’t fit together to form anything resembling a blueprint. The only recurring theme is that the vast majority of them came out of the blue.

Which brings to this weekend, when the Tide will defend their nearly unanimous No. 1 ranking at Ole Miss, and specifically to senior quarterback Chad Kelly, who is in a position on Saturday to do what no other starting QB who’s had the opportunity — not Tebow, not Manziel, not Nick Marshall, not even Jordan Jefferson — has ever done: Beat a fully Sabanized version of Alabama twice in a row.

This time, obviously, the Rebels will not be coming out of the blue; although Bama is an 11-point favorite, back-to-back losses to Ole Miss in 2014 (led by Bo Wallace) and ’15 ensure that the Tide will arrive as focused and malevolent as ever. Although those two games were nothing alike, with last year’s chaotic, 43-37 barn-burner in Tuscaloosa standing in contrast to a defensively driven, 23-17 decision in 2014, a win to complete the hat trick under Hugh Freeze would carry very different implications than the random ambushes we’ve seen in the past.

Sure, Bama is beatable — you know, once in a blue moon, if you catch them on the right day and catch a few breaks, etc. If you’re good and lucky, like Ole Miss was last year. But no one, player or coach, has been good enough (or lucky enough) yet to make a habit of it. And on another blockbuster weekend for college football at large, no possible outcome looms larger than the possibility that Freeze and Kelly actually, somehow, really do have Saban’s number.

PICK YOUR POISON

For a guy whose tenure in Oxford nearly ended before he could attend his first class, Kelly comes into one of the defining games of his college career with a lot going for him: Promising genes, decent mobility, and next-level arm strength that will earn him a good, long look from the NFL next spring. (His stealth Twitter game, on the other hand, could use some work.) But Kelly’s most enviable asset might be his wide receivers, an assortment of big, lanky, first-off-the-bus types who collectively rank among the most physically imposing units in the nation, even after losing a pair of 2016 draft picks, Laquon Treadwell and Cody Core.

Although this corps is younger than last year’s, what it lacks in experience it more than makes up for in depth: Five of the six receivers listed on this week’s depth chart — juniors Damore’ea Stringfellow and Markell Pack, sophomore DaMarkus Lodge, redshirt freshman Van Jefferson, and true freshman A.J. Brown — arrived as blue-chip prospects who ranked among the top 140 overall players in their respective recruiting classes, according to 247Sports’ composite rating. (So did another true freshman, D.K. Metcalf, who has already exploited his 6-foot-4 frame for a pair of acrobatic touchdown catches in his first two games but won’t play Saturday due to a broken foot.)

The only senior in the rotation, Quincy Adeboyejo, wasn’t as highly recruited out of high school, but easily fulfills the size/length requirement at 6-3, 195 pounds, and will likely be playing on Sundays next year. Ditto Kelly’s favorite target, senior tight end Evan Engram, who remains a tight end in name only; at 6-3, 235 pounds, his combination of size opposite defensive backs and speed vs. linebackers is a problem defenses have to account for on every snap.

Kelly and Freeze both place an enormous amount of trust in this group to make difficult and contested grabs against man coverage. (If you’re watching Saturday, bring an appetite for a steady diet of back-shoulder fades.) But also keep an eye on the way the Rebels employ formations and pre-snap motion to create mismatches and open space — especially for Engram, who turned in one of the most productive nights of his career in Ole Miss’ season-opening loss to Florida State with nine catches (a career-high) for 121 yards.

Again, Engram virtually never lines up as a traditional, hand-in-the-ground tight end; against FSU, the Rebels spent the entire game in four- and five-wide sets that deployed their nominal TE as a super-sized slot receiver, the better to free him up to roam between the hash marks. Even with no possibility or pretense of mounting a conventional running game, though, Ole Miss was still occasionally able to simulate the effects of play-action on the defense with motion.

Take this play from early in the second quarter, which began with tailback Akeem Judd motioning out of the backfield to Engram’s side of the formation, immediately putting FSU linebacker Matthew Thomas — already at a disadvantage opposite Engram, as we’ll see a little further down — in a bind:

At the snap, Kelly opens his stance toward Judd and stares him down, effectively selling a flare pass into the flat; meanwhile, both Engram and wide receiver Van Jefferson (No. 12) feign the part of would-be blockers, going so far as to break down into blocking stance about 3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Thomas, influenced by the pre-snap motion to his side of the field, takes the bait …

… thereby allowing Engram a free release into the middle of the field, where a nice window has opened up in the space Thomas vacated in his over-pursuit toward Judd in the flat. The Seminoles’ other linebacker, backup Nick Patti, has a chance, but doesn’t get enough depth in his zone and is far too late to recognize that Engram is in it.

The result: A startlingly easy, 26-yard gain right down the middle of the field that set up a first-and-goal situation and, two plays later, a touchdown to extend the Rebels’ early lead to double digits.

On its next possession, Ole Miss victimized Thomas again, this time by sending tailback Eugene Brazley away from Engram; again, Thomas (No. 6, in the middle of the defense) is influenced just enough by the pre-snap motion to leave him out of position in coverage — notice the stutter steps he takes in response to Brazley just as the ball is snapped, which is all Engram needs to run past him down the seam and into the window between Thomas and the two-deep safety, Trey Marshall, for his first touchdown of the season:

Scouts will love the timing, accuracy, and zip on that throw by Kelly, who was so locked in on Engram on this play (understandably!) that he actually missed a much easier toss underneath: Jefferson was so open in the middle of the field that he could have jogged into the end zone untouched himself. Although Florida State sent more rushers (six) than Ole Miss had blockers (five), the sixth man across the line, safety Derwin James, started from much too far away to generate any pressure; the result was a choice between wide-open receiver on one hand and an obvious mismatch on the other. Kelly settled for option b), just to be sporting, I guess.

(If that play looks familiar to Alabama fans, it should: Kelly and Engram hooked up on a similar route last year, motion and all, for a 22-yard gain in Tuscaloosa — albeit without the egregious bust underneath, and with Kelly rifling a throw into much stiffer coverage by Bama’s since-departed all-everything linebacker, Reggie Ragland.)

Just as often, though, the Rebels are content to abandon the window dressing, ditch the running back altogether, spread five receivers across the width of the field, and pick the one-on-one scenario they like best. As we’ve seen, that’s often Engram carrying a safety straight down the hash marks, a reliably productive staple of the offense for the past three years:

On the outside, there’s no replacing Treadwell’s jaw-dropping prowess on jump balls, which resulted in crucial touchdowns against Alabama (and many others) each of the past two years. But he wasn’t a burner, and rarely saw the kind of downfield separation against good defenses that Adeboyejo created on this double move against Marshall, which went for 30 yards and set up another first-half touchdown:

Kelly also picked on Marshall on his only TD pass of the second half, an exquisitely timed lob to Van Jefferson as Jefferson swatted away Marshall’s attempt at a jam (Marshall was flagged for holding) to give himself the room he needed as the ball dropped into his hands like metal to a magnet:

It’s no coincidence that Kelly’s seven touchdown passes through the first two games have gone to six receivers — Engram is Mr. Reliable, by virtue of seniority, but every member of the rotation is a potential matchup nightmare vs. smaller corners or slower safeties and has flashed the raw tools necessary to deliver a big game (or at least a big play) against any defense on the schedule.

Put five of them on the field at the same time, and the only questions are ones of consistency and distributing the ball broadly enough to keep everyone happy. Otherwise, the Rebels can pitch and catch with just about anyone.

CHUCK AND DUCK

If the advantage of emptying the backfield is creating more winnable match-ups for your receivers, the flip side is that it also creates more winnable match-ups for the opposing pass rush: Without a back or an actual tight end helping in protection, any breakdown among the front five can spell instant doom, pending the quarterback’s ability to escape and improvise on the fly.

Kelly has some elusive instincts as a scrambler, as Alabama fans know well. But the second half against Florida State, on the heels of a dominant, 28-point first half, was a lesson in just how quickly Freeze’s offense can veer from explosive to exposed.

It would be one thing if the Seminoles had struck upon some exotic blitz at halftime that caught Ole Miss off guard, or exploited a single weak link up front; at least in either of those cases the scheme or the player at the root of the problem could be readily identified and addressed. But the second-half breakdowns involved multiple players, and they didn’t reflect any schematic brilliance on the part of the Florida State sideline.

Mainly, they reflected a consistent inability to block FSU’s Demarcus Walker, who alternated between multiple positions along the line depending on down and distance and harassed Kelly from all of them, racking up 4.5 sacks in the final two quarters alone.

Walker’s first takedown came on the Rebels’ fourth offensive snap of the third quarter, at the expense of the Rebels’ left tackle, Rod Taylor (No. 73), who set up to block an outside speed rush and never stood a chance against Walker’s inside swim move:

This was a bad play for the offense made infinitely worse by Kelly’s ill-fated attempt to salvage it, an impulse — to call it a “decision” would be generous — that made it arguably the biggest play of the game. At that point, the Seminoles had just capitalized on another takeaway, converting a tip-drill interception that deflected off Engram’s hands into a three-play, 32-yard touchdown drive that cut Ole Miss’ once-massive lead down to 28-23; with this one, they found themselves just 11 yards from completing a stunning comeback in a matter of minutes. Three plays later they took the lead for good, and Walker took over the rest of the game.

On obvious passing downs, Walker often moved inside, where he easily blew past left guard Javon Patterson for a clear path (again, running back Akeem Judd, No. 21, releases immediately into an outlet route with no thought of pass protection) to sack number two:

For his third sack, Walker remained at tackle but this time victimized the Rebels’ other guard, sophomore Jordan Sims (No. 70), whom he simply tosses aside …

… and then easily beats again a few minutes later en route to sack number four, once again facing no resistance or acknowledgment whatsoever from the releasing back:

The good news for the rest of Ole Miss’ season: Exceedingly few teams boast an equivalent of Demarcus Walker who can reliably humiliate opposing blockers and hound quarterbacks from any point on the line.

The bad news for Saturday: Alabama is at the top of the short list of teams that do. The Tide have a couple guys in the inside-out mold, in fact, in senior Jonathan Allen and junior Da’Shawn Hand — both former five-star recruits with the size to hold their own at tackle (Allen is listed at 291 pounds, Hand at 280) and the athleticism to generate pressure on the outside.

Last year, Hand and Allen combined to sack Kelly on back-to-back plays at the end of the third quarter, on both of which the Rebels motioned prior to the snap into an empty backfield set.

Add to that equation Bama’s explosive outside linebackers, Ryan Anderson and Tim Williams, who together give Saban more pass-rushing juice off the edge than he’s enjoyed at any other point in his tenure; their presence by itself poses problems for Ole Miss’ blocking schemes that Florida State largely did not.

If the same starting five we saw against FSU manages to hold up for four quarters against the Crimson Tide’s unrivaled defensive front without significant help from the backs and tight ends, it will be a miracle. And not a small one.

TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND

Obviously, the Rebels aren’t oblivious to the unique challenges posed by Alabama’s talent and depth: In last year’s win in Tuscaloosa, they spent less time in empty-backfield sets than they did with multiple tight ends and H-backs to beef up the blocking.

Because they led virtually from start to finish in that game, they were also able to commit more to establishing the run than they were in this year’s opener after they fell behind Florida State midway through the third quarter; the running backs, Judd, Brazley, and Eric Swinney, finished with 52 yards on just 11 carries against FSU, which was no help at all once the Noles decided they could effectively ignore the run and set their sights on Kelly. Those kinds of numbers won’t cut it against Bama, either.

Still, if a third consecutive upset is in the cards, Ole Miss must find a way to be the fast-moving, aggressive version of itself that it wants to be, and to play to its strengths in the vertical passing game. That might mean sacrificing a receiver for the sake of adding an extra blocker and being more selective about the big chances it takes; remember, the loss in Orlando turned on a pair of giveaways early in the second half when the Rebels still held the lead.

It will certainly hinge on how well the defense fares against Jalen Hurts and Co. — the Tide’s ascendant freshman quarterback will be in his first true road game — and how many points the offense needs to keep pace. Keeping your foot on the gas against a defense like Bama’s, which thrives on mistakes, isn’t easy, or necessarily optimal; the risk of pushing the tempo and asking Kelly to stand in the pocket while things develop downfield is every bit as high as the potential reward.

But Ole Miss can’t defy the odds again without taking its shots, and hitting on at least a few of them. There’s no question anymore about the talent: This could be a star-making turn for the Rebels’ young receivers, and a chance for Kelly to become a household, Heisman-contending name. The potential and the opportunity are right in front of them. All they need is a little time to see it through.

Every Monday, be sure to read Matt Hinton’s “Monday Down South” column, the most comprehensive and analytical recap of SEC football anywhere. Follow him on Twitter @MattRHinton.