Inside the Numbers: Turnover margin could decide Rebels-Hogs
No. 8 Ole Miss travels to Fayetteville this weekend to face Arkansas.
Let’s take a look inside some of the numbers of the Rebels’ contest with the Razorbacks.
The Good
11.9: Ole Miss still boasts the nation’s top scoring defense, allowing just 11.9 points per game. Arkansas enters putting up 34.0 points per game, and will present an unfavorable matchup for a Landshark defense built on speed and getting to the perimeter of the field. How will the Rebels respond to an Arkansas offense gaining some confidence?
213.9: The number of passing yards allowed by Arkansas. The secondary has been the issue for an otherwise good Razorbacks defense. Quarterback Bo Wallace is missing his top target in Laquon Treadwell, and will look to a number of guys to step up. Can the Rebels find some holes in the Hogs’ defensive backfield?
+13: Ole Miss is second in the SEC in turnover margin, and has a secondary that possesses tremendous ball skills. Arkansas has played turnover free football as of late, so the Rebels’ ability to force the Razorbacks into some mistakes will be key.
The Bad
5.5: Arkansas ranks third in the SEC with 5.5 yards per rush, and will attack the middle of the Ole Miss defense, which has a few players missing due to injury. LSU wrote the book on how to beat Ole Miss; be physical at the line of scrimmage, run the ball downhill and control the clock. Arkansas will try to do exactly that with its massive offensive line and three-headed monster of Jonathan Williams, Alex Collins and Korliss Marshall.
2: Ole Miss has two losses by a combined seven points. The Rebels are still alive in the SEC West, and were perhaps the biggest winners last week with the bye. Hugh Freeze’s club has two games to play — this week against Arkansas and next week against cross-state rival Mississippi State. If Ole Miss can win out, and gets some help from Auburn in the Iron Bowl, the Rebels will find themselves in Atlanta.
50/57: Arkansas is very good in late down situations. The Hogs are converting on 50 percent of third down chances and 57 percent of fourth down opportunities. Ole Miss needs to get off the field when it can, and not give the Razorbacks any more confidence than they’ll already likely have coming off a huge win last week.