O'Gara: Ole Miss has 12-team Playoff grace, but Saturday at South Carolina is suddenly a daunting must-win game
For Lane Kiffin, there’s good news and bad news as he heads into October.
The good news is that Saturday’s loss against Kentucky won’t define his 2024 season because the 12-team Playoff exists. There’s more grace than ever for disappointing regular-season losses like the one that Ole Miss suffered a month after it entered the season with its highest preseason ranking since the Richard Nixon administration.
The bad news is that Saturday’s game at South Carolina now looks much more daunting because of where Ole Miss struggled against Kentucky. And even in the 12-team Playoff era, it’s a must-win game in Columbia.
The latter feels more relevant for Ole Miss. Any notion that Kiffin’s squad can afford to put it on cruise control is exaggerated. Go ask 2022 Tennessee what it means to have Playoff hopes on the line in Columbia. That 2022 Tennessee squad didn’t have to face Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart, both of whom are every bit as capable of dominating the Ole Miss offensive line as Kentucky did.
That’s the big-picture problem for Ole Miss. For all the offseason discussion about the transfer portal upgrades on the defensive line making the difference in a potential Playoff push, the first 2 games of SEC play could potentially illustrate an overlooked kryptonite.
That Ole Miss offensive line is a problem. And not in a good way.
We might’ve overlooked the fact that in those 2 games against Alabama and Georgia last year, that unit struggled mightily. The Tide held Ole Miss to 56 rushing yards while Georgia held Quinshon Judkins and Jaxson Dart to a combined 95 yards on 30 carries. In both games, Dart spent the majority of that matchup running for his life. Against Deone Walker and that Kentucky front, Dart endured a similar fate.
Would anyone be surprised if that South Carolina pass rush repeated that?
The Gamecocks are averaging 7 tackles for loss per game, half of which have come via sacks. Kennard is tied for the SEC lead with 5.5 sacks and Stewart only trails Ryan Williams and Jeremiah Smith for the most Herschel Walker “my God, a freshman” moments of 2024 (that stat is unofficial).
Folks….this is a TRUE freshman!! pic.twitter.com/Sk6pbkYhpG
— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) September 8, 2024
Yeah, that’s a triple protection going up in smoke against an 18-year-old. No big deal. Stewart and Kennard are ranked No. 7 and No. 15, respectively, in PFF pass-rushing grade among edge-rushers.
One would think that means we’ll see a ton of tight end Caden Prieskorn in pass protection, which isn’t ideal considering he’s Dart’s most trusted non-Tre Harris target. That’s not how Ole Miss would prefer to run its offense. Prieskorn has just 10 snaps in pass protection this season. He’s had more snaps in the slot (79) than inline (77), and he’s often been asked to operate out of the backfield in a “superback” type of role.
Alternatively, we could see Henry Parrish’s efforts used more in pass protection. That’s not ideal, either. The obvious drawback of not having a championship-level offensive line in matchups like this is that keeping Dart upright likely includes taking away some of his weapons.
LSU didn’t bat 1.000 in Columbia, but it also let the South Carolina defensive line take over. Why? The Tigers have 2 first-round prospects at the tackle spots. They got to Garrett Nussmeier twice and hurried him into some fast decisions, but it was clear why that group is No. 5 in FBS having allowed just 2 sacks in 5 games.
#LSU LT Will Campbell on his second offensive snap of the game vs. Dylan Stewart #PunishJumpers pic.twitter.com/piCRxtZLSy
— Devin Jackson (@RealD_Jackson) September 15, 2024
With all due respect to Ole Miss, it doesn’t have Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. anchoring its offensive line. And after how well Walker fared as the interior disruptor of Kentucky’s defensive line, it’s also fair to wonder if Ole Miss has the bodies on the inside to slow down the experienced Tonka Hemingway and TJ Sanders.
On the road, that task is daunting. Everything about this matchup is more daunting than it was in the preseason. Maybe that’s because we saw what it took for LSU to win at South Carolina — some would say that was strictly the byproduct of poor officiating — or because we know what the Gamecocks did to a Kentucky team that just went into Oxford and won.
All of that is relevant context for the task at hand. Ole Miss’ season was always going to be defined by how it navigated a seemingly favorable path to the Playoff. The talent level at Ole Miss has arguably never been higher, and the SEC schedule set up extremely well without Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and Mizzou, but instead with 4 SEC teams who missed out on bowl berths last year.
One of those was South Carolina. The Gamecocks won’t be treated like a team fresh off a losing season. We can play the results and say that Kentucky wasn’t treated like a team that could win in Oxford, or we can acknowledge that Ole Miss was deficient in a key area and it lost a down-to-the-wire game.
Even if another letdown loss wouldn’t eliminate Ole Miss from the 12-team Playoff era, starting 0-2 in SEC play would force reality to sink in. Running the table in conference play to get to 10-2 overall would feel like a pipe dream, especially with a trip to LSU and a home showdown against Georgia on the way.
That’s staring Kiffin in the face on Saturday at Williams-Brice Stadium. Anything less than a bounce-back showing and that Playoff grace will be short-lived.
That’d be nothing but bad news.
-9.5 to Ole Miss in this game. That’s a large line after the Ole Miss team that got beat at home to UK, a UK team that SC absolutely destroyed. What is Vegas up to??..
Vegas must not have a very high opinion of SCar. Although, Vegas didn’t have a very high opinion of UK and we now know how that one turned out.
Question is, can SCar turn this game into a rock fight the way UK did? SCar’s front seven allowed LSU to rush for over 4 YPC and Ole Miss has a much better running game than LSU.
50% of that was play calling by the Gamecocks. Once the Gamecocks got up by 17 the coaches moved into bend don’t break BS. Literally the announcers were bragging how LSU hasn’t allowed a sack yet and the SC DL got through and got one.
Once the Gamecocks backed off and LSU started having sustained drives did they start bringing out the O.
LSU still only had 132 total rushing yards but once they started dominating possession of the clock they wore the SC defense down and slowly climbed back in the game.
By the time they caught back up, the SC defense was gassed and wasn’t playing like they were at the beginning of the game. Turned into a shootout. Absolutely amazing with Sellers going down that the Gamecocks still had a chance to tie it up at the end.
Ole Miss has a much better defense than LSU. SCar will not be able to open up a big lead the way they did against LSU. If the SCar D allows 4+ rushing YPC in this game, they will lose… handily.
Playoff grace??? We NEVER had any, and quite honestly don’t deserve any. You either win or you don’t. It’s that simple. And last weekend, we should have taken care of business, but we didn’t. Winners don’t expect or need passes. We’ll see how badly this team wants to win this Saturday.
I honestly would not be surprised to see South Carolina win this game. I think it will be extremely close either way.
I think the game at SC has been considered a must win game for them from the start of the season. I doubt they’d be in playoff contention with any more than 2 losses. The two teams on the schedule that you’d expect to beat them are GA and possibly LSU. I imagine they’re looking at every other game outside of those two as a “must win” from the time they first looked at thier schedule. With the loss to KY, realstically that LSU game is now a must win game too.
October 12th is must win for both Ole Miss and LSU. The loser is pretty much eliminated from CFP contention unless they run the table. LSU may could still slide in if they only lose one conference game (Alabama, Ole Miss, or A&M). Ole Miss can’t lose to LSU and lose to Georgia and still get in.
the sc d line is really talented. its amazing how many top shelf d linemen they have gotten over the years with the overall play of the team most years. other than that d line they are pretty average to good but not great anywhere else. I expect kiff to lose a lot of sleep this week rethinking his game plans over and over and I expect he will have some success. i dont see sc winning but it certainly wouldnt be a shock. ole miss will need to be ready for any and everything on special teams, trick plays and on side kicks. If sc is successful on some of those ole miss could bite the dust again.
Bottom line is whether SCar’s front seven can stop the Ole Miss running game, and whether SCar can run on the Ole Miss front seven.
If they can stop the Ole Miss running game the way UK did last week, they’ll cover. If they can run on Ole Miss the way UK couldn’t, they’ll win easily.
Cocks by 90
SC +9 1/2 seems like free money, unless Rocket Sanders is out. I don’t see much fall off from Sellers being out. Would not be surprised at all if SC wins outright.
Neither I, nor anyone else honestly know whether a full strength Ole Miss offensive line can hold up enough against that stout line, but they will be much better positioned to do so if they get healthy. Ole Miss had three oline starters out injured last week and two of the regular rotation players playing injured and not at 100%. We do know from past years that Dart can get the ball out of his hand and on target quickly. He wasn’t doing that Saturday because he had gotten out of the habit of doing so when his oline was dominating lesser opponents earlier in the season. I’m even more concerned about Ole Miss’s defense allowing drives to continue due to penalties. If they can’t fix that, then they are in a world of hurt no matter what the offense does. We also hope that they don’t suffer another flukey turnover in the redzone.
It is an interesting matchup. I think the safe thing is to pick Carolina to cover, but I am really curious to see if Ole Miss can stop SC’s running game and how the Sip O’Line fares against a stout Carolina D-Line. The SC Secondary will need to show up too. I like Emmanwori, Fortune, and DQ Smith but are the backups good enough? Ole Miss is a huge test for them.
Ole Miss’ early cupcake schedule has not prepared them for the SEC conference meat grinder. Vandagriff is near the bottom of the conference in touchdowns thrown and is near the top in number of sacks taken, but still managed to knock Ole Miss off at Vaught Hemingway Stadium. Things will not get any easier at Willy B.
Excellent article. I am expecting Saturday’s game to be a good one. Kentucky did us no favors in that we are going to get a ticked-off group of Rebels on Saturday afternoon.
GO COCKS
You can thank Kentucky later for softening them up. They’re still sore after that game.
If eight college football teams get beauty- pagent voted into a playoff, we have a farce some years.
If twelve college team are picked and first round bi is given to four of them it’s worse than a farce
Sixteen in a knockout has a better chance to find the best football team over a decade of results. We have other college divisions who do this and those results can be sampled for outcomes. I don’t think super conferences are the way to go
You might get in the playoffs with 2 SEC losses but they better be to 2 top teams. Losing to a unranked team uses up all your “grace”. I think every game left for OM is a must win game. At least they better think and play like it is
Don’t look now, but in a couple weeks, Ole Miss might possibly be sitting at 4-3. The loss to Kentucky shows that the Rebs aren’t as good as advertised. The S Carolina defense is tough and has the talent to shut down the Reb offense. Then there’s LSU. The Tiger defense is improving in all phases. With an off week before the game against Ole Miss in Tiger stadium, at night, I wouldn’t bet too heavily on the Rebs.