1 area of concern that could keep these 4 SEC West contenders from reaching Atlanta
We, the media, don’t always get it right.
Just seven times, in fact, have we correctly predicted the SEC champion since 1992. Usually, though, we don’t get it backward.
With that in mind, Alabama once again will be the overwhelming favorite to win the West. I expect LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn to be the next 3 teams, in some order, when we reconvene in Birmingham in July for SEC Media Days.
Could any of the 4 make it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game? It’s certainly possible. But each has an area of concern that could wreck their dreams, too.
Alabama: Down goes Tua …
It’s really that simple. The Tide have NFL-caliber backups at many positions. They overcome juniors leaving early for the NFL better than any team in America. The only position where they absolutely have to have the starter remain the starter all season is at quarterback.
Tua Tagovailoa makes this Tide team a national championship contender. A backup makes them vulnerable because there is no Jalen Hurts to turn to in 2019.
Alabama typically has been able to keep its quarterback healthy and upright. Injuries haven’t destroyed championship dreams. Except last year, perhaps, when Tagovailoa battled leg injuries throughout the postseason.
Auburn: The SEC road schedule
The Tigers play 3 road games against SEC teams with division title aspirations. They don’t ease into it, either.
They open SEC play in Week 4 at Texas A&M. Two weeks later, they travel to Florida. Later, they visit LSU.
That’s not an easy road to navigate with a veteran QB, and it’s downright harrowing with a first-time starter. Presumably, it will be redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood, but it’s still possible that true freshman Bo Nix could line up under center in College Station, The Swamp or Death Valley.
LSU: The aura of Alabama
I might be in the minority, but I think LSU puts way too much emphasis on this game. It’s a big game, obviously. But LSU builds up Alabama to be this unbeatable machine in which anything less than a perfect effort won’t be enough.
Since LSU last beat Alabama, the Tide have lost 4 games to other teams ranked in the teens; they’re not immune to off days or mediocre performances. Yet they’ve beaten 4 LSU teams ranked in the top 5 and 4 other LSU teams ranked in the teens.
You could argue that LSU gets Alabama’s best effort every time, whereas maybe Texas A&M or Ole Miss didn’t. That’s a plausible position, but several of these games haven’t even been competitive. Six of the past 8 Bama victories in the series have been by double digits, including 3 by 21 or more.
There’s a difference between respecting your opponent and believing you have to play perfect football to win. Maybe watching the ease with which Clemson dismantled Alabama in the national title game will alter LSU’s perception. Clemson didn’t play a perfect game. It gave up a big-play TD. Clemson’s DBs certainly aren’t on par with LSU’s. Clemson’s offense certainly is better and more lethal, but more than anything, Clemson went into the game believing it was the better team. I’m not sure LSU believes that. Until that changes, the scoreboard won’t, either.
Texas A&M: At Georgia? Of all the years …
Every year, the crossover schedule kicks somebody in the shin while patting others on the back.
This year, Texas A&M’s schedule rotated to Georgia. In Athens. That’s on top of playing at Clemson (which obviously doesn’t impact its path to Atlanta) and at LSU (which certainly might). It’s a bad time to draw the Dawgs, especially in a year in which Alabama gets South Carolina and LSU gets Vanderbilt.
I’ve been on record for years that these permanent and rotational crossover games are fine for traditionalists, but because the schedules are imbalanced, they shouldn’t count in the standings.
Texas A&M has a roster capable of contending, but there’s next to no chance the Aggies can survive this schedule unscathed.
Is Tua 100%? It’s clear he was on the road to losing to Georgia last year when he was not. It’s hard to believe Alabama which has built such a power house is that thin at the most important position.
1980
What’s that got to do with your QB situation this year? Typical Harvey answer. You are better at killing trees than holding a conversation with anyone past the 3rd grade.
You’re really not worth holding a conversation with… 1980
UGARMYRet, you said something negative about Alabama. Doesn’t matter that it’s true.
Any time that happens, it triggers BT…
BamaTime is actually the screen name for Harvey Updyke the tree killer.
pot meet kettle
I see UGA troll one is being backed up by UGA troll two….
What’s funny is UGA troll one and two actually think Bama is thin at QB… Continue to blowing that smoke up each other’s a$& and maybe one day before you die UGA might win another NC to go along with 1980… #alwaysnextyearU
BamaTime, actually the author of this article thinks Bama is thin at QB, neither UGA fan said anything like that. Reading comprehension. Try it.
44-16
When you have to use another team to talk smack you already lost… Bama played UGA but you didn’t list that score? LMAO
Bama has some decent depth. They’re not proven, but Taulia and Mac Jones looked pretty good in spring ball (although Taulia only threw the ball 9 times).
Bama isn’t thin at the QB position. Like you said they’re just young guys or not proven up to this point. They have more scholarship QBs on the roster then they have had in a few years now.
Any time you have 4 scholarship guys on the roster you are opposite of “thin”. Maybe inexperienced behind Tua but if the Bama QB situation is thin then so is Jared Lorenzen.
Bama has been a powerhouse for the past decade and this is the first time we have had a truly elite QB, so I don’t know why you are surprised at this.
We won national championships with Greg McElroy, AJ McCarron, Jake Coker……
Good point except UGA is catching up and not sure a QB like those guys would be enough anymore.
Jalen definitely bailed them out last year. Tua and his brother both seem to be injury prone. If he can stay healthy bama will be in it but if not it’ll be tough.
@ UGARMYRet: It’s not too hard to believe considering a lot of programs are one-injured-QB away from disaster. Just ask Florida State from a few seasons ago; they lost their starter at the end of the opening game (against Alabama) and that team tanked hard after being a pre-season #3.
I think Alabama has a serviceable backup in Mac Jones, who played extremely well in the last two A-Day games. Granted, that’s not live game action, but I think he’d perform well enough to not be the reason the team loses. He’d be like a McCarron-style QB, managing the game, limiting turnovers, and letting the ground game pound the ball.
Tua was playing poorly against Georgia, no doubt about that, and Hurts did come in and pull out the victory….but we’re approaching a new season…who knows what will happen. See you guys in ATL…hopefully
This is Saban’s Achilles Heel — not giving backup QBs enough real experience like he does all other positions. Sure, the rest of the team is usually good enough to cover, but it will bite someday. We were just lucky that Hurts did not transfer a few months earlier.
Bama lost several QB’s after the Coker year to transfer. Something like 5 in 2 years. That doesn’t include Barnett when Hutrs got the job and now Hurts. Most of the important backup reps from transferred to OU. Does UGA have a lot of game time experience behind Fromm? Does anybody in the SEC have an experienced back up? It’s not like they are devoid of talent. Just experience.
Bama has won championships with so so quarterbacks. With Najee, Trey, and Brian in the backfield and the elite group of wide outs, do we really need a Tua caliber. It’s a great luxury, but come on guys.
Oh, God, please quit flexing that disgusting invincible megatron of an offense.
@ KirbySmart: LOL
Didn’t even have to mention the O-line lol.
Im not sold on Bama this year. I have yet to be sold on Tua. Has Bama has yet to rely on him to win a very close game? (Where he played the whole game as a starter?)
There may be a game I forgot about…
You’re not sold, but everyone else on planet Earth is. He won a natty in incredible comeback fashion against UGA. Who cares whether or not he played the whole game? He played the most difficult part of that game.
I like how people hold it against him that he hasn’t had more close games. He’s blown so many teams out before halftime, but somehow that’s a strike against him as we need to see him in trouble more often in the 4th quarter.
And not sold on Bama? Ha, that’s also great. We’ll see if we can convince you in September when we roll into whatever po-dunk stadium the Gamecocks play in.
What I was trying to say is this, Alabama has yet to rely on Tua to win a game. He has always had his defense and playmakers behind him. The one game the defense left, (vs. Clemson) he was ineffective. I’m not saying he’s a bad QB by any measure, but he’s not the world beater some people think he is.
Haven’t relied on him to win a game? He won every game he played last year except the final. Blowouts are actually a good thing. You seem to only value close wins, but I’ll take blowouts.
With Tua, Bama became the first team since 1888 to beat every regular season opponent by at least 20 points! That D from last year was far from Bama’s best under Saban.