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It’s finally time for conference championship Saturday.
There are no fewer than 5 conference championship games this weekend that will have implications for the College Football Playoff, which is a key feature of the new format. Multiple automatic bids are up for grabs and seeding in the 12-team CFP will surely change based on how these conference title games unfold. Of course, these games have meaning beyond just CFP implications, too.
With so much at stake from the SEC to the Sun Belt, here’s 1 key matchup for every conference championship game this weekend:
SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Texas
Matchup to watch: Georgia’s offense vs. Texas’s defense
Georgia’s offense this year has been disappointing, particularly when compared to previous seasons. The Bulldogs rank just 28th in EPA-per-play this season, according to Game on Paper — compared to 4th last season.
The primary drop-off has come in the passing game. Carson Beck has regressed across the board with top targets Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers now tearing up the AFC West. UGA’s offensive line issues haven’t helped either, but a lot of the blame has to fall on Beck’s shoulders. Per Pro Football Focus, he’s already made 18 turnover-worthy throws this season after making just 11 in all of 2023. His yards-per-attempt has also regressed from 9.4 to 7.8.
And yet, Georgia’s hopes of making a national championship run rest almost entirely on Beck’s ability to re-gain his 2023 form when it matters most. This Georgia team has a lot of flaws outside of its passing game, too. UGA’s rushing offense and pass defense are worse in 2024 than they were a year ago, too, per EPA metrics. Its rush defense was terrible in 2023 by EPA and is now merely mediocre. There’s very little about this Georgia team that’s been elite outside of about 2.5 games this season (2nd half against Alabama plus the Tennessee and Texas games).
Here’s a big problem for UGA, though: This Texas defense is awesome. Historically elite, in fact.
Texas allowed its SEC opponents to gain just 4.15 yards per play in 2024. That’s the third-best mark for any SEC team in the College Football Playoff era, per Radar360. The only teams to post better defensive yards-per-play numbers over that span are 2016 Alabama and 2017 Alabama.
Reasonable minds could poke holes in Texas’s defensive metrics based on a poor strength-of-schedule, but the Longhorns have still over-performed what you’d expect on the defensive side of the ball.
Of Texas’s 8 SEC opponents, the Longhorns held all of them to at or below their season average (in SEC games) in yards per play. Here’s a breakdown:
To beat Texas for a second time in 2024, Georgia will likely need its best offensive performance of the season.
Related prop bet: Carson Beck over 242.5 passing yards (-115) | Carson Beck under 242.5 passing yards (-115) | bet365
Big Ten Championship: Penn State vs. Oregon
Matchup to watch: Penn State’s passing game vs. Oregon’s secondary
Led by offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki and quarterback Drew Allar, Penn State quietly had one of the nation’s most efficient passing offenses in the country this season. The Nittany Lions ranked 5th nationally in EPA-per-pass, according to Game on Paper during the regular season. They were also 2nd in success rate. Allar drastically improved his yards-per-attempt year over year, going from 6.8 in 2023 to 9.4 in 2024.
However, Allar has yet to have a great game against a ranked opponent in his career. Or even a good one, really. Across 2023 and 2024, Allar has played 6 opponents who ended up being ranked in the final (or in 2024’s case, the most recent) AP Top 25. Here’s how his performances in those 6 games have gone:
Cumulatively, his yards per attempt in those 6 games is just 5.51. That ranks 45th out of 53 college quarterbacks who have made at least 4 starts vs. teams who ended the year ranked in the AP Top 25 over the past 2 seasons. Suffice it to say Allar is far from proven against big-time competition, even if he’s taken legitimate steps forward as a passer this season.
Enter Oregon’s secondary.
It should be no surprise that Oregon has a strong pass defense this season given the Ducks’ 12-0 regular season. But it’s not just been good, it’s been borderline elite this season. Oregon leads all Big Ten defenses in pass defense efficiency while facing 3 of the league’s top 5 passing offenses.
Oregon has a shutdown cornerback in Jabbar Muhammad, who has been on this stage before. He helped lead Washington all the way to the national championship game last season. Oregon doesn’t poach many interceptions (just 10 all season) but the Ducks still created plenty of havoc with 79 tackles for loss and a Big Ten-best 58 pass breakups.
Just 2 teams posted strong passer efficiency rating numbers against Oregon this season: Washington (185.9) and Ohio State (177.1). It will be up to Allar to add Penn State to that list.
Related prop bet: Drew Allar over 202.5 passing yards (-115) | Drew Allar under 202.5 passing yards (-115) | bet365
ACC Championship: Clemson vs. SMU
Matchup to watch: Cade Klubnik’s legs vs. SMU’s defense
It’s been an up and down season for Klubnik as a passer, but he’s been much more consistent as a runner. In 8 ACC games this season, he has 14 carries of 10+ yards. He has 11 alone in the month of November, including 4 in the narrow loss to South Carolina this past weekend.
SMU’s defense has been elite at times this season, mostly because of its work in the game. The Mustangs only allowed 26 rushes of 10 or more yards this season during league play, which was the best mark in the ACC. Of those 26 runs, only 9 were by quarterbacks. Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea had 4, Cal’s CJ Harris had 2 and no other QB had more than 1.
Keeping Klubnik from using his legs will be crucial for SMU to hold onto an advantage in this game. Klubnik has been inconsistent as a passer, and the Tigers’ offensive line woes have limited some of Phil Mafah’s effectiveness out of the backfield. Mafah went from averaging 5.48 yards per rush in October to just 4.13 yards per rush in November. Klubnik has done a good job of picking up the slack so far, but he’ll face arguably his toughest test yet this weekend.
Whether or not Klubnik can extend plays with his legs — and pick up a few key first downs — could have an out-sized impact on the outcome of this game.
Related prop bet: Phil Mafah over 82.5 rushing yards (-115) | Phil Mafah under 82.5 rushing yards (-115) | bet365
Big 12 Championship: Arizona State vs. Iowa State
Matchup to watch: Cam Skattebo vs. Iowa State’s defense
If you want to beat Arizona State, it starts with stopping Cam Skattebo. That’s no easy task, as you’d expect from someone who Nick Saban deemed as his favorite player in the sport.
Skattebo is everything you want in a modern running back. Not only is he efficient as a ball-carrier — he averaged 5.7 yards per rush this season — but he’s also prolific as a receiver. He has 1,398 rushing yards and 468 receiving yards so far this season, which makes him the only player in the entire country with at least 400 receiving yards and at least 1,000 rushing yards so far in 2024.
With that kind of production, it should be no surprise that his volume is off the charts as well. Arizona State leans on Skattebo in a way that few offenses do on one player. He’s 1 of only 3 players in the entire country with a usage rate above 40% and a yards-per-touch average of over 6.5. The other 2 names on that list? Ashton Jeanty and Kaleb Johnson.
The 40% usage rate + 6.5 yards per touch benchmark is a significant one. In the CFP era, there’s only been 18 players to eclipse those standards over an entire season. The names on that list include some of the most revered running backs of the modern era: Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Melvin Gordon, Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones, to name a few.
This is a special player and he’s thriving in an offense that knows how to maximize his skillset.
Defensively, Iowa State has been mediocre-to-bad against the run to this point in the season. The Cyclones rank 15th out of 16 Big 12 teams in yards-per-rush allowed so far this season. They also rank 71st in EPA allowed per rush, according to Game on Paper.
Now, I don’t necessarily expect Iowa State to be a push-over for Skattebo just because it conceded north of 5 yards per rush this season. The reality is that Iowa State has been facing elite running backs all season, including the aforementioned Kaleb Johnson.
But it’s not just Johnson — Iowa State was also forced to defend Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks, UCF’s RJ Harvey, Kansas’ Devin Neal and Kansas State’s DJ Giddens. If you’re keeping track at home, that list includes a Doak Walker finalist and the Big 12’s 4 leading rushers this season (aside from Skattebo), all of whom rushed for more than 1,200 yards during the regular season.
How did the Cyclones hold up in those matchups? Not particularly well in most of them. Johnson and Harvey both popped Iowa State to the tune of 7+ yards per carries on 25 attempts each. Neal, Giddens and Brooks all landed somewhere between 4.88 and 6.44 yards per carry.
Related prop bet: Arizona State over 25.5 points (-120) | Arizona State under 25.5 points (-115) | DraftKings
Mountain West Championship: UNLV vs. Boise State
Matchup to watch: Ashton Jeanty vs. UNLV’s front 7
Ashton Jeanty is a household name at this point in the 2024 season. He’s trending toward being the Heisman Trophy runner-up, although a big game against UNLV to send the Broncos to the CFP while Travis Hunter sits at home may be enough to earn some last-minute votes.
We’ve already seen this matchup play out once this season, as UNLV hosted Boise back in October. Jeanty had by far his least-efficient game of the season against UNLV, rushing for just 3.9 yards per rush — and the Broncos won on the road anyways.
How did UNLV stop Jeanty from having his usual big day on the ground? By cutting out big plays completely. The UNLV game was the only contest all season where Jeanty did not record at least 1 20-yard run. That’s despite Jeanty recording a whopping 33 carries against UNLV, which represented his third-most in any game this season.
This is an obvious matchup to highlight, but there’s really not much else worth focusing on in this game. Jeanty has the nation in rush attempts and has the 6th-highest usage rate (47.3%) of any FBS player in the CFP era. Barring injury or UNLV building a huge lead, he’s going to get the ball on close to half of Boise’s offensive plays. UNLV is going to sell-out to stop him again — the only question is whether or not it can make lightning strike twice.
Related prop bet: Ashton Jeanty over 174.5 rushing yards (-110) | Ashton Jeanty under 174.5 rushing yards (-125) | ESPN BET
AAC Championship: Tulane vs. Army
Matchup to watch: Tulane’s passing attack vs. Army’s secondary
Army has largely steamrolled teams this season, and you can’t do that without at least some semblance of a good pass defense. With that being said, there’s certainly some reason to be concerned about Army’s secondary going into this game against Tulane.
It’s only been a couple of weeks since Army got thrashed by Notre Dame, but here’s a refresher on what happened in that game if you need it: the Fighting Irish averaged 9.8 yards per play en route to a 49-14 win over the Black Knights.
Collectively, Notre Dame’s 2 quarterbacks (Riley Leonard and Steve Angeli) posted a passer efficiency rating of 202.6. They did so on relatively low volume (18 total pass attempts) but it’s still concerning how easily Notre Dame was able to carve up Army’s secondary.
The blueprint for Army en route to its 10-1 start has been to build a lead, drain clock and force poor passing teams into uncomfortable situations. To illustrate this, here’s a note: Army has not played a single team that ranks in the top 35 nationally in passer efficiency rating. Not one. Most of them are outside of the top 75.
Tulane ranks 7th in that category entering this weekend’s game.
Now, it’s worth noting that Tulane has a run-heavy offense. The Green Wave rank 127th out of 134 teams in pass play rate. That’s certainly something to keep in mind when handicapping this game. But if Tulane does decide to open things up a bit in the pass game with Darian Mensah, it should have an advantage.
Related prop bet: Darian Mensah over 184.5 passing yards (-115) | Darian Mensah under 184.5 passing yards (-115) | BetMGM
Conference USA Championship: Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky
Matchup to watch: Jacksonville State’s offense vs. Western Kentucky’s defense
These teams met *checks notes* last week. Western Kentucky won a nail-biter at home, 19-17, thanks to a last-second field goal. That result setup this game for the conference title, although the rematch will take place on Jacksonville State’s home field.
The first edition was not a particularly clean game from either offense, but there are a couple of things to highlight with regards to Jacksonville State. Most importantly, starting quarterback Tyler Huff is reportedly considered a game-time decision this week after suffering an ankle injury vs. WKU a week ago. Huff is a dual-threat QB. He led C-USA in yards per completion this season and rushed for over 1,100 yards. If he can’t go, it’s a big deal.
Jacksonville State running back Tre Stewart is another name to know. Last week against the Hilltoppers, he rushed for 85 yards and a score on 20 carries. If Huff can’t play in this game, he’s likely to see a larger workload. As is, he’s leaned on pretty heavily — he’s averaged 24.5 rush attempts per game over the last 8 contests.
Western Kentucky is abysmal at defending the run. The Hilltoppers ranked 117th nationally this season in rush defense success rate, per Game on Paper.
Related prop bet: Tre Stewart over 114.5 rushing yards (-115) | Tre Stewart under 114.5 rushing yards (-115) | bet365
MAC Championship: Ohio vs. Miami (OH)
Matchup to watch: Miami (OH)’s deep passing game vs. Ohio’s defense
Miami has 2 of the MAC’s top-6 leaders in yards per reception this season, including the overall leader in Reggie Virgil at 20.2 yards per reception. Javon Tracy clocked in at 15.2 yards per catch and was second in the league in that category amongst all pass-catchers with at least 50 receptions on the season.
As a team, Miami (OH) led all MAC teams in passing plays of 30+ yards. The deep ball is a huge part of the Red Hawks’ offense. Brett Gabbert led the MAC in yards per completion this season and is 4th nationally (min. 350 drop-backs) with an average depth of target of 11.3 yards, per PFF.
On the other side, Ohio’s defense allowed the third-fewest number of 30+ yard passing plays in the MAC this season with just 7 (in 8 MAC games). Generally speaking, Ohio’s secondary doesn’t get burned.
This game will be the second time these teams have played this season. Miami beat Ohio 30-20 at home back on Oct. 19, although the Red Hawks were up by 24 points with about 6 minutes to go. In that game, the Red Hawks completed just 1 pass of 30+ yards, but they did have a 28-yard passing touchdown late in the 3rd quarter that proved to be the dagger.
Related prop bet: Longest touchdown (Miami -110) | Longest touchdown (Ohio -125) | Neither (+1800) | DraftKings
Sun Belt Championship: Marshall vs. Louisiana
Matchup to watch: Louisiana’s passing attack vs. Marshall’s defense
Louisiana’s passing offense has been strong overall this season. The Ragin’ Cajuns lead all Sun Belt teams in passer efficiency rating in 2024, although it’s come with a bit of a wrinkle in November.
Ben Wooldridge was the starter for most of the season, but he’s been replaced by Chandler Fields due to a reported collar bone injury. Fields has been exceptional in his place. In 3 games, he’s thrown for 696 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception on 67 passes. That means Fields is averaging north of 10 yards per attempt since taking over as the starter.
While most teams would bristle at the idea of bringing in a backup quarterback this late in the season, Fields is proven at this level. He also played significant snaps last season following a separate Wooldridge injury. He’s a veteran who has been in this program since 2019.
Marshall’s defense has been a vulnerable to the passing game this year. The Thundering Herd rank 5th in the Sun Belt in pass defense efficiency rating. They’ve allowed 7 yards per attempt in conference games and their 10 interceptions are tied for 2nd-most in the league after the regular season.
Related prop bet: Chandler Fields over 222.5 passing yards (-115) | Chandler Fields under 222.5 passing yards (-115) | BetMGM
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
