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Week 4 of the 2024 college football season is complete.
As with Week 3, this story will break down some advanced stats and other insights that should be helpful for anyone interested in betting on college football in the weeks to come. Last week, we covered Oklahoma’s offense struggles, LSU’s defensive improvements, Indiana’s efficiency and a lot more.
Let’s examine some overarching narratives and see if they line up with with the underlying data says after Week 4:
Selling: Auburn’s offense is hopeless
Auburn had something of a nightmare day Saturday against Arkansas — at least on paper. The Tigers turned the ball over 5 times and scored just 14 points on an Arkansas defense that has really struggled at times. But I have good news, Auburn fans: If you stop throwing the ball to the other team, you may have something here. Auburn averaged 7.57 yards per play against Arkansas, which is a borderline-elite number. A 44% success rate is pretty respectable. There were good things to takeaway from Auburn’s performance in the red zone and on 3rd down, too. It’s just the turnovers that were an issue. Granted, it’s a big problem if Auburn can’t get it fixed — but I think the Tigers’ offense may be undervalued in the market ahead of a meeting vs. Oklahoma this weekend.
Actionable bet to consider:Â Auburn +2.5 vs. Oklahoma (-110 on bet365)
Buying: Nebraska with Dylan Raiola at QB
Nebraska lost to Illinois in Week 4, which is brutal for the Huskers but might be a stroke of good fortune for anyone looking to bet on them this week. Dylan Raiola made a series of incredible plays against the Illini before making some back-breaking mistakes in the 4th quarter and overtime to cost the Huskers a win. Given that Raiola is a true freshman, I’m willing to bet on the trajectory of his development. I also love this spot for Nebraska — playing on the road after a tough loss. To make it better, Nebraska will be facing arguably the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue. The Boilermakers made Riley Leonard look like Josh Allen a couple weeks ago, so I’m expecting Raiola to have a field day against this Purdue secondary.
Actionable bet to consider:Â Nebraska -9.5 vs. Purdue (-115 on FanDuel))
Selling: Florida can keep this momentum going
Credit to Billy Napier and Florida for going into Starkville and getting an SEC win in Week 4. But I think that might be the Gators’ only SEC victory of the season. It’s certainly the last time UF should be favored against a conference opponent in 2024. The reality is that this Mississippi State team is one of the worst power-conference teams in the country and might be the worst non-Vanderbilt SEC team since the Chad Morris era in Fayetteville. And even so, Florida’s offense only produced a small handful of explosive plays. Defensively, the Gators allowed Mississippi State to have a 44% success rate, an 11% explosive play rate and a 60% success rate on 3rd down. Florida’s offense clicked, but it was still a pretty underwhelming performance by the Gators considering the opponent.
Buying: The end of the Mack Brown era is close
Mack Brown is 73, so it’s likely his time as a head coach was always going to come to an end sooner rather than later. That process might have accelerated this past weekend after UNC gave up 70 points to James Madison. After the game, Brown reportedly told his team that he was going to retire. Reports have since surfaced that Brown isn’t quitting mid-season, but the damage may already be done. Brown’s second stint in Chapel Hill has to be considered a success overall, but the Tar Heels have collapsed over and over again in inexplicable spots. Saturday was the 20th time in Brown’s tenure that Carolina has been favored by 10+ points in Vegas. The Tar Heels are an astounding 12-8 in those games. How bad is that? Based on implied probabilities derived from money lines for those 20 games, Carolina would have been expected to win 17.3 out of 20 — meaning Brown’s program has underperformed expectations by more than 5 wins. That’s a significant indictment of where the Tar Heels are under Brown, and it sure seems like Carolina will be looking for a new head coach soon.
Selling: The ACC is a 2-horse race
Miami and Clemson have certainly emerged as the top teams in the ACC, but there’s a legitimate third contender that could vie for a spot in the ACC Championship Game: Louisville.
The Cardinals remain undefeated after they beat Georgia Tech 31-19. Louisville has been dominant in each of its first 4 wins. Tyler Shough is 8th amongst all quarterbacks (min. 75 drop-backs) with an average depth of target of 11.9 yards, per Pro Football Focus. He’s accomplished that with only 1 turnover-worthy play as well and has an 8-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio. Louisville is 14th nationally in GameOnPaper’s schedule-adjusted net EPA per play metric. Louisville gets to host Miami but will go on the road to face Clemson later this fall. A split could be enough to earn the Cardinals a spot in the ACC Championship Game.
Actionable bet to consider:Â Louisville +150 to make the ACC Championship Game (+150 on DraftKings)
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Buying: Kalel Mullings is Michigan’s best running back
Kalel Mullings has decisively surpassed Donovan Edwards as Michigan’s best running back. That was already becoming apparent before Michigan’s Week 4 win over USC, but it’s hardly up for debate anymore after Mullings rushed for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries against the Trojans. Edwards had a solid day as well, going for 74 yards and a score on 14 attempts. But even that share of the backfield is too generous for Edwards, who has not been nearly as productive as Mullings has been through 4 weeks. Mullings leads in success rate (57% to 40%), EPA per rush (0.39 to -0.14) and a host of other advanced stats in addition to just raw yards-per-carry (8.09 to 4.48). Finding the optimal backfield usage will be extremely important for Michigan moving forward, especially if it plans to continue ignoring the pass game. By not being able to throw the ball, Michigan is already at a pretty big mathematical disadvantage from a game plan perspective — it can’t compound that handicap by continuing to give too many carries to an inferior running back in Edwards.
Selling: Oklahoma (only) has a quarterback problem
Oklahoma’s offensive issues were front-and-center Saturday night against Tennessee. Jackson Arnold’s mistakes were high-profile — 2 fumbles in plus-territory and a mystifying interception. He deserved to go to the bench and Michael Hawkins did a great job of filling in — especially as a true freshman. But Oklahoma’s offensive issues start up front. The o-line has been an issue all season, and it got dominated by Tennessee, even with center Branson Hickman back in the lineup. All 5 of OU’s offensive linemen allowed multiple pressures, per PFF. Hawkins’ advanced numbers aren’t all that much better than what Arnold put up (although they are better). I’m not sure it ultimately matters who Oklahoma goes with under center against Auburn this week. It certainly doesn’t matter if OU’s offensive line can’t put together a better performance than it did on Saturday night in Norman.
Buying: Army and Navy could meet in the AAC Championship Game
If you haven’t noticed, the service academies are playing some serious ball this year. Army smoked Rice on Saturday and Navy hung 56 points on Memphis, which I gave out as a good bet to make the CFP last week at +500 (whoops). Army and Navy will play their annual regular-season game on Dec. 14 — the week after the conference championship games are complete. Both of these teams are top-40 nationally in scheduled-adjusted EPA-per-play, and Navy is all the way up at No. 12. These service academies have been 2 of the most efficient Group-of-5 teams in the country this year and should be taken as serious threats to reach the AAC title game. Right now, Navy is especially undervalued in the market.
Actionable bet to consider: Navy to win the American Athletic Conference Championship (+1400 via FanDuel)
Selling: SMU’s QB change solved its offensive woes
This isn’t the first time I’ve sold SMU stock this season and it might not be the last. On the surface, SMU made a quarterback change over its bye week and then Kevin Jennings led the Mustangs to a 66-point outburst in a rivalry-game win over TCU. In reality, SMU managed just 375 total yards and gained a good-but-not great 6.31 yards per play. It also came against a TCU defense that entered the week 84th in EPA allowed per play. SMU gets a mediocre Florida State team next week. The Noles haven’t been great on defense, but they do a great job of rushing the passer. I expect the Noles will make Jennings a lot more uncomfortable than TCU did.
Buying: Iowa State is a legit Big 12 contender
Iowa State had another strong Saturday in Week 4, blasting Arkansas State 52-7. Perhaps as important, its Cy-Hawk win over Iowa gained some credibility after the Hawkeyes blew out Minnesota on the road. The Cyclones enter Week 5 ranked 14th nationally in GameOnPaper’s schedule-adjusted EPA per play metric. Iowa State does have to go on the road to face Utah — the Big 12 favorite, per most sportsbooks — in November. But CollegeFootballInsiders gives Iowa State a 4-point edge in that game — and that’s not accounting for any possible Cam Rising injuries.
Actionable bet to consider:Â Iowa State to make the Big 12 Championship Game (+320 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
