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It will be a challenge to sort through whatever that was in Week 6.
With 4 top-10 teams going down, there’s certainly a lot to learn from after a week like that in college football. As with Week 5, this story will break down some advanced stats and other insights that should be helpful for anyone interested in the college football betting markets. Last week, we discussed Michigan’s underlying struggles, Alabama’s elite offense, Indiana’s path to the Playoff and a lot more.
Here are some thoughts on 10 college football ideas after Week 6:
Buying: Missouri has major problems
Missouri sort of limped through September, but the Tigers mostly received the benefit of the doubt after winning 11 games a season ago. But any goodwill Missouri earned is out the window moving forward after its decisive loss to Texas A&M on Saturday. Sure, Missouri got unlucky in the first half with some penalties that took potential points off the board, but the defense made Conner Weigman look like an all-SEC-caliber QB. He was 18-of-22 for 276 yards. For the season, Mizzou now ranks 56th nationally in net schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play, according to GameOnPaper. This team looks nowhere close to being Playoff-caliber at the moment.
Actionable bet to consider: Missouri to miss the College Football Playoff (-800 on DraftKings)
Selling: The sky is falling in Tuscaloosa
Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday is inexcusable, shocking, embarrassing and probably a lot more — all of that is true. The fact that it came a week after Alabama dethroned No. 1 Georgia makes it even more of a stunner, and it certainly signals the end of the Kalen DeBoer honeymoon phase in Tuscaloosa. But this is not a broken team. Alabama’s offense was utterly dominant against the Commodores to the tune of a 58% success rate and 95th+ percentile numbers in numerous other advanced stats categories. The numbers say Alabama’s defense wasn’t as bad as you’d think, either. Vanderbilt mostly survived on 3rd downs — a huge credit to Diego Pavia — and a handful of explosive plays. Alabama lost because it had 2 flukey turnovers that Vandy converted into 13 points — and a lot more bad luck on top of that. Want more evidence? Vandy had just a 1.8% postgame win expectancy, per Bill Connelly’s formula. That’s the lowest for any winning team in any game this season. We should absolutely celebrate this Vanderbilt win for any number of reasons, but it doesn’t mean that Alabama’s program is in free-fall.
Actionable bet to consider:Â Alabama -21.5 vs. South Carolina (-110 on bet365)
Buying: Tennessee’s offense isn’t as good as we thought
Remember September? When everyone thought the Vols’ offense was elite and some went as far as to say they could win the whole thing? It seems like a very, very long time ago after Tennessee’s crushing loss to Arkansas on Saturday. Tennessee’s offense ranks 63rd in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play. That’s worse than Northern Illinois, Marshall, San Jose State, Louisiana and a whole host of other teams that don’t exactly look like juggernauts on that side of the ball. Maybe Nico Iamaleava will continue to grow throughout the year to the point where the Vols have a top-5 offense, but I don’t think that’s something that we can count on. This Vols team still has to face Alabama, Georgia and Kentucky — they probably need to win 2 of those 3 and not slip up anywhere else if they want to make the Playoff.
Actionable bet to consider: Tennessee to miss the College Football Playoff (-130 on DraftKings)
Selling: USC’s defense can compete in the Big Ten
Back in the summer, it was a bit cliché to suggest that the Big Ten newcomers might struggle with physicality in the trenches as they transitioned to the Big Ten. Well, those issues are already starting to show up with USC’s defense — and the weather hasn’t even turned cold yet. USC allowed Minnesota to have a success rate of 51% on Saturday. The Golden Gophers’ EPA-per-rush was in the 82nd percentile, per GameOnPaper. This is Minnesota we’re talking about — a team that entered the week ranked 103rd in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play on the year. The same issues cropped up a couple of weeks ago when Michigan won thanks to a strong running game despite having virtually no threat of a passing attack. USC’s defense is better this year than it was in 2023, no doubt. But not meaningfully so — not enough to make the Trojans real contenders in the Big Ten anytime soon. I think Penn State offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki will have plenty of ideas on how to take advantage of USC’s weak links on defense this weekend.
Actionable bet to consider: Penn State over 27.5 points vs. USC (+100 on FanDuel)
Buying: Miami is still an elite team
I didn’t sell Miami last week after its scare against Virginia Tech, and I’m not going to do so after its miraculous comeback at Cal, either. The Hurricanes have survived back-to-back tight games, but they’ve largely deserved their results. Connell’s postgame win expectancy formula has Miami with 5.8 expected wins in 6 games. And how about some credit for Mario Cristobal and his staff for building a program that doesn’t quit when they’re down 25 points, on the road, in the 3rd quarter? I think a lot of Miami’s comeback victory was overshadowed because of the late kickoff and the other events of the weekend, but that doesn’t feel like a game Miami would have won last year — or at any other point in the past 2 decades, frankly. Perhaps more important, Miami is still ranked in the top 10 in net adjusted EPA-per-play and in SP+’s Week 6 rankings. I see Miami cruising to an ACC title game berth from here — and I think the Canes will be favorites in Charlotte over anyone else in this league.
Actionable bet to consider: Miami to win the ACC (+140 on FanDuel)
Selling: The Ryan Walters era at Purdue
Purdue opened the season with a victory over Indiana State, but have been largely uncompetitive in 4 games since then. Ryan Walters is in just his 2nd season as the Boilers’ head coach, but things seem to be unraveling quickly. Purdue began the year ranked 68th in Connelly’s preseason SP+ rankings. After just 5 games, Purdue has slipped down to 89th. That is dead last amongst power-conference teams by a significant margin. Purdue is also 132nd out of 134 teams in schedule-adjusted EPA/Play.
Walters also made the decision to part ways with offensive coordinator Graham Harrell earlier this season, and that move has not exactly paid off handsomely so far. Walters’ contract reportedly only runs through the 2027 season, so Purdue may have to make a decision on his future — whether to fire or extend — before the end of this calendar year. In the mean time, I’m happy to fade Purdue against any semi-competent team.
Actionable bet to consider: Illinois -19.5 (-110 on Caesars)
Buying: Florida State can have some measure of success with Brock Glenn
Florida State was more competitive than you might imagine in a 29-13 loss to Clemson last weekend. This Noles team hasn’t had any juice this season, but Brock Glenn offered a glimmer of hope with his play Saturday. He threw for 228 yards and 2 touchdowns in the loss. FSU went just 4-of-16 on 3rd downs, or this might have been a much closer game. Pro Football Focus’ numbers reinforces the idea that Glenn had a strong start — he received a passing grade of 82.4 from PFF, which was the 6th-best mark for any QB with at least 40 drop-backs in Week 6. It was the first time in Glenn’s college career that he’s looked like an above-average QB. FSU will need a lot more of that going forward if it’s going to build any sort of momentum in 2024.
Selling: Ashton Jeanty as a Heisman frontrunner
One of the bigger consequences of Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt is that Jalen Milroe is no longer the frontrunner for the 2024 Heisman Trophy. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty now has that honor with odds better than +250 at pretty much every major sportsbook. Jeanty has been absolutely unbelievable to start this season, and I don’t want to lose sight of that.
But there’s virtually no precedent for a player like Jeanty to win the Heisman.
A running back hasn’t won this award in almost a decade. The idea that someone at that position from outside of a power conference could win the Heisman Trophy this year strikes me as laughable — particularly with implied odds somewhere in the neighborhood of 30%. That’s an extremely high price for a group-of-5 running back 6 weeks into the season. I think there’s value on Travis Hunter, Jalen Milroe, Cam Ward or just about anyone else as long as Jeanty is the favorite in Vegas.
Buying: SMU’s offense has leveled up
SMU has been good for 3 straight weeks now, but its Week 6 win over Louisville is its most impressive performance of the year. Kevin Jennings completed 21-of-27 passes for 281 yards and rushed for another 113 yards in the victory. SMU also posted an EPA-per-play in the 86th percentile (per GameOnPaper) and a 48% success rate on the day. Those are borderline-elite numbers, and they did it against a quality Louisville defense. SMU accomplished all of this with just 1 explosive play — per GameOnPaper’s definition — on the day. The Mustangs will want to be more explosive moving forward, but being so consistent on a down-to-down basis is very impressive. SMU is idle this week, but this is a team to look out for in the ACC race down the stretch if Clemson or Miami were to stumble.
Buying: UNLV’s offense is good … and better with Hajj-Malik Williams
If you were paying attention to college football on Friday night, you know this wild Week 6 slate started with UNLV’s overtime loss to Syracuse. The Runnin’ Rebels couldn’t quite get enough stops against the Orange, but boy did their offense look like it belonged — and then some — against a strong ACC opponent. Hajj-Malik Williams backed up his strong debut with 227 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing). As a team, UNLV put up hyper-elite EPA-per-play and success rate numbers offensively. UNLV’s offense ranks in the top 40 in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play according to GameOnPaper — and that number should only rise as Williams gets more reps.
Actionable bet to consider: UNLV to win the Mountain West (+180 on DraftKings)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
