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Week 8 of the college football season has come and gone.
As with Week 7, this story will break down some advanced stats and other insights that should be helpful for anyone interested in the college football betting markets. Last week, we covered Cam Ward’s Heisman candidacy, red flags in Texas’s profile, DJ Lagway’s potential, NC State’s growth and plenty more.
Here are 10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 8:
Buying: Tennessee’s defense is elite
I’m still not sure Tennessee’s defense is getting enough credit. The Vols did something remarkable in Week 8 — they held Alabama to zero explosive plays, per Game on Paper’s methodology. Alabama did not have a single play from scrimmage go for more than 30 yards on the day. Prior to that game, Alabama was averaging almost 4 such plays per game in SEC play. Tennessee’s pass rush — and home crowd, frankly — had Alabama’s offense out-of-sync all game long. The Tide also posted underwhelming success rate and EPA metrics in what was a very disappointing loss. Tennessee’s offense has garnered a lot of headlines since the end of the game, but it was the defense that really won this game for the Vols against an extremely formidable offense.
Even with Tennessee’s offensive inconsistencies, I think the Vols more-or-less secured a Playoff berth on Saturday night. Tennessee has 5 games remaining, but only 1 is against a superior team (Georgia). UT’s other SEC opponents in that stretch are Kentucky, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. Even if the Vols go 10-2, that should be more than enough for a spot in the expanded 12-team field. If Tennessee is 9-2 going into that last game against Vandy, its playoff odds are going to be a lot less bettor-friendly than they are now.
Actionable bet to consider: Tennessee to make the College Football Playoff (-150 on DraftKings)
Selling: Navy can compete with Notre Dame
Navy had a very underwhelming day from an advanced stats perspective despite its gaudy 51-17 win over Charlotte. The Midshipmen were actually out-played on a down-to-down basis by Charlotte, but 5 turnovers (including 4 interceptions) swung the game wildly in Navy’s favor. But on balance, this was Navy’s worst offensive game of the season. Navy had a success rate of just 41% and averaged only 5.2 yards per play — a full yard worse than its next-lowest output in 2024.
Now Navy gets to play a solid Notre Dame team at a neutral site in Week 9. This is sneakily one of the most important games of the regular season from a College Football Playoff perspective, but the Fighting Irish are heavily favored in this game. Notre Dame is an 11.5-point favorite at most books as of publication. Some computer models have Notre Dame as even more significant favorites than that. We’ve certainly seen Marcus Freeman teams falter in this spot as a big favorite, but he’s generally had his team ready to play against ranked opponents.
I still think Navy can compete for the AAC title and possibly a Playoff berth, but I agree with Vegas — and then some — that Navy is outmatched here.
Actionable bet to consider:Â Notre Dame -11.5 (-110 on Caesars)
Buying: Florida can still make a bowl
Florida dominated Kentucky on Saturday, winning 48-20. It was the first start for DJ Lagway, and he did not disappoint. He completed 3 passes of 40+ yards in the first half alone. Per PFF, his average depth of target on Saturday was 21.5 yards — and he achieved that without a single turnover-worthy play. There’s still some refinement that’s needed here, but the early results on Lagway are encouraging.
It’s also notable that Florida has continued to fight even as this coaching staff seemingly creeps closer to the unemployment line with each passing week. Billy Napier has fought back after a very tough September (and offseason) to have the Gators within 2 wins of bowl eligibility. Florida does get lowly Florida State to close out the year, but it will need to pull off a big upset against one of Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss or LSU in order to get there. That’s a tall order considering those teams are all firmly in the Playoff mix.
With that being said, I don’t think we can rule out a run to 6 wins for the Gators — this team is too talented and fighting too hard to count them out. By some metrics — like ESPN’s SP+ ratings — Florida is a top-25 team by pure quality. I’m buying into that evaluation after seeing what Lagway and the Gators have done over the past couple of weeks.
Selling: Vanderbilt can keep it close vs. Texas.
Kirk Herbstreit preemptively put Texas on upset alert against Vandy a couple of weeks ago. But after what we saw in Week 8, I’m not so sure the Commodores can compete against this Texas team. The Longhorns aren’t perfect, but they seem to be meaningfully better than the Alabama team that Vandy beat earlier this year. Vanderbilt’s offensive success has largely been the product of some good fortune, too.
We saw some of that evaporate in a 24-14 win over Ball State this past Saturday. Vandy leads the SEC with a third-down conversion rate north of 52%. Per Game on Paper, Vanderbilt had just a 41% success rate against Ball State. That’s not going to cut it if Vandy wants to remain competitive with SEC teams. When — not if — that takes a dip, Vandy’s offense is at risk of cratering.
Actionable bet to consider: Texas -18.5 at Vanderbilt (-110 on FanDuel)
Buying: Garrett Nussmeier is undervalued in the Heisman betting market
The Heisman Trophy betting market is starting to come into focus a little bit as we’re now passed the halfway point of the regular season. There’s 3 clear favorites at the moment: Miami’s Cam Ward, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel and Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty. In previous iterations of this story, I backed Ward (at +900) and Gabriel (+850) while shying away from Jeanty.
There’s no longer good value on any of those 3 players to win the Heisman Trophy as they’re all +400 or lower at most books. But I do see some value on backing LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier at +3000. Nussmeier gets a ton of volume in LSU’s offense and has been very productive as well. He’s 7th in the country in touchdown passes at the moment with 18 and has already cleared 2,000 yards for the season. He needs to be more efficient moving forward, but it’s possible his numbers are good enough at the end of the year to win the award.
The primary reason I like Nussmeier at +3000 is the platform he’s going to have over the next couple of weeks. LSU will face Texas A&M and Alabama in top-25 matchups in its next 2 games. If Nussmeier has big performances on those stages, he’ll be at the top of the Heisman conversation by early November. LSU will then be heavy favorites in its final 3 games of the season, giving him a nice runway to close out the regular season. LSU is also one of just a couple of SEC teams without a conference loss, so Nussmeier could have the added benefit of appearing in the SEC Championship Game. I’m not necessarily expecting LSU to win the A&M or Alabama games, but the opportunity is certainly there for him to grab some attention on a massive stage in back-to-back games.
Actionable bet to consider: Garrett Nussmeier to win the Heisman Trophy (+3000 on FanDuel)
Buying: USC can blow out Rutgers
What would this line be in the alternate universe where USC makes a field goal in crunch time and beats Maryland by double digits? USC had a postgame win expectancy north of 56% against the Terps, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, so they were a little unlucky to lose it. Lincoln Riley has been mocked — often rightfully so — for saying how “close” USC is to an undefeated record in 2024. And while that sentiment loses credibility with each passing loss, it’s not entirely inaccurate.
There’s been some encouraging signs from USC’s offense the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, Rutgers’s defense is in an absolute free fall. The Scarlet Knights have a defensive success rate of almost 53% over the past 2 weeks. That ranks 130th out of 134 FBS teams over that span. And those games were against Wisconsin and UCLA — not exactly offensive juggernauts.
This USC team is significantly better than its 3-4 record. Its opponent this weekend, Rutgers, is 4-3 with a much, much worse roster. Vegas is asking USC to cover a big number this weekend, but I think it can get there. It also helps that USC will be at home this weekend, forcing the Scarlet Knights to make the cross-country trip. Big Ten teams traveling 2+ timezones are just 6-10 against the spread so far this season.
Actionable bet to consider: USC -14 (-115 via bet365)
Selling: No Kurtis Rourke, no problem
Indiana absolutely rolled Nebraska 56-7 on Saturday, and did so largely without the services of starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke. He had to leave the game midway through due to a hand injury and is out indefinitely, the school announced on Sunday. Against the Huskers, Rourke was replaced by Tayven Jackson. That was fine — because the game was essentially over by that point already — and Jackson generally performed well.
However, Jackson’s history suggests he’s not nearly as reliable as he appeared to be on Saturday against the Huskers. In 2023, Jackson averaged just 7.1 yards per attempt and had a 2-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio. That’s over a sample size of 128 pass attempts. He also has never offered any sort of running threat in his collegiate career to this point (25 career yards on 38 attempts).
Perhaps most importantly, I think this Washington team is a lot better than it gets credit for. The Huskies are ranked 27th this week in SP+ and are 8th in EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper. Those are pretty formidable numbers for a team that’s 4-3 on the season. Washington specifically has one of the best pass defense units in the entire country, ranking No. 2 in pass defense success rate and pass defense EPA-per-play, according to Game on Paper.
If this number gets over a touchdown, I’d take the points. But for now, I’ll happily jump on Indiana’s team total under in this matchup.
Actionable bet to consider: Indiana team total under 30.5 points (-118 on FanDuel)
Buying: Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator change could help
Oklahoma coach Brent Venables officially announced that the program has parted ways with offensive coordinator Seth Littrell on Sunday. Now the question is: Will OU’s offense improve?
The answer is unclear, but it would be pretty much impossible to be worse. Against South Carolina, OU would have been better off if it took a knee on every 1st-half offensive snap. The same could be said for Oklahoma’s performance against Tennessee last month. This is the worst Oklahoma offense in decades and maybe the worst of any power conference team this season.
With that being said, personnel is not the issue. OU has recruited well enough during the Venables era to not be in this bad of shape on offense. Yes, injuries have played a toll. But I think most of the issues are structural and a new voice in the room could lead to some marginal improvements that yield big impacts. Joe Jon Finely has been elevated to play-caller and while he has zero experience in that role, he will have some help.
Oklahoma also promoted analyst Kevin Johns as part of this move. Johns, you may remember, was the offensive coordinator at Duke the past couple of seasons under Mike Elko. His offenses always punched above their weight, even despite Riley Leonard’s injuries in 2023. The Blue Devils finished that season ranked 80th in Game on Paper’s schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play stat. That was with a QB situation that is, believe it or not, much worse than what OU is dealing with right now.
Actionable bet to consider: Oklahoma team total over 13.5 points vs. Ole Miss (-118 on FanDuel)
Selling: Oregon’s run of dominance continued in Week 8
Oregon’s 35-0 win over Purdue looks really good on paper, but there were some red flags. Offensively, the Ducks really struggled to create explosive plays against a leaky Purdue defense. The run game in general wasn’t good either as the Ducks averaged just 3.7 yards per carry. Defensively, Oregon allowed Purdue to have a 47% success rate — that’s a very high number considering the Boilermakers were shutout in this game.
This was a decent performance from Oregon, but I’m not sure that it deserved a 35-0 score line. To me, the advanced stats read much closer to what they did during Oregon’s underwhelming September — as opposed to a continuation of what we saw the week prior in its win over Ohio State. Oregon has all the pieces, but I think we’re still searching for sustained consistency. Something to keep in mind moving forward with a Ducks team that has ascended to No. 1 in the AP Top 25.
Buying: Conference USA is wide open
The Conference USA race hasn’t earned much attention so far this season, but that may change in the coming weeks depending on how the race for the Group-of-5 Playoff berth shakes out. Liberty has long been considered to be the favorite in this league and the Flames remain undefeated going into Week 9.
However, it’s not been an easy ride for Liberty. The Flames needed overtime to beat FIU a couple of weeks ago and needed a last-minute touchdown against New Mexico State back in Week 2. And yet, Liberty is still a significant favorite at most books to win this league.
I’d posit Western Kentucky as a better value play. The Hilltoppers have a couple losses to power-4 teams (Alabama and Boston College) but have otherwise been pretty dominant this season. The advanced metrics largely backup WKU as the better bet at this point in the season. SP+ ranks Liberty just 3 spots higher than the Hilltoppers after Week 8. FPI gives WKU a 45.9% chance to win this conference (compared to 18.4% for Liberty).
Actionable bet to consider: Western Kentucky to win Conference USA (+200 on ESPN BET)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
