Ad Disclosure
Week 9 of the college football season is in the books.
As it did after Week 8, this story will break down some advanced stats and other insights that should be helpful for anyone interested in the college football betting markets. Last week we broke down Notre Dame’s matchup against Navy, USC’s potential to blow out Rutgers, Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator change and a lot more.
Here are 10 college football ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 9:
Buying: Texas A&M is going to the Playoff
This year’s 12-team Playoff field is starting to take shape. There are a hand full of 0-or-1 loss teams in the SEC and Big Ten that seem to be good bets to make it, as well as some 2-loss programs that will be hoping for chaos down the stretch.
When I look at Texas A&M, I see a team with a flawed statistical profile but also an ideal schedule. The Aggies are 7-1 on the season and will be favored to win their next 3 games against South Carolina, New Mexico State and Auburn. Then in the finale, Texas A&M will host rival Texas for one of the most highly-anticipated editions in that rivalry’s history.
By my estimations, all Texas A&M has to do is beat New Mexico State and go 2-1 in its remaining SEC games in order to make the Playoff. There’s a good chance, if that happens, that A&M will end up in the SEC title game — which would all but assure the Aggies a spot in the 12-team field as well. So even despite Texas A&M’s concerns at quarterback — which are very real in my opinion — I think A&M’s Playoff odds are priced too low at the moment.
Actionable bet to consider: Texas A&M to make the College Football Playoff (+100 on FanDuel)
Selling: Ohio State’s offense is a juggernaut
Ohio State’s offense has been good for the vast majority of this season, but we’ve yet to see it be truly special. The latest example was the Buckeyes’ narrow win over Nebraska this past weekend when they managed just 6.1 yards per play (a season-low). That marked the 4th consecutive game that Ohio State has averaged under 7 yards per play.
You could point out that Ohio State is still in the top-5 nationally in yards per play, and you’d be correct. It’s also true that Ohio State’s offense ranks in the top 5 of Game On Paper’s adjusted EPA-per-play metric. However, things seem to be getting worse, not better — and possibly due to an issue that Ohio State has yet to solve.
Ohio State left tackle Josh Simmons suffered a season-ending injury in the Oregon game, and the Buckeyes have yet to find a reliable replacement. Ryan Day even said his staff would consider moving Donovan Jackson out wide to compensate for Simmons’s absence. Whatever the fix is, Ohio State hasn’t found it yet. And it’s been a big reason Ohio State’s rushing attack resulted in just 2.1 yards per carry against the Huskers. Until this gets sorted out, I don’t think we can expect Ohio State’s offense to be truly elite.
Actionable bet to consider: Ohio State team total under 26.5 points vs. Penn State (-114 via FanDuel)
Buying: Arkansas can give Ole Miss problems
Arkansas has been one of the most volatile teams in the country, and now the Razorbacks get a chance to play spoiler against an Ole Miss team that might be tempted to look ahead to next week. The Rebels, already weighed down by 2 losses in 2024, have a matchup against Georgia in Week 11.
Arkansas’ offense is elite. The Razorbacks are 9th nationally in offensive success rate, per Game on Paper. They’re coming off of perhaps their best game of the season, too — a 58-25 win over Mississippi State at featured an offensive success rate of 66%.
Ole Miss’ defense was fine against Oklahoma last week, although it did allow the Sooners to sustain some drives in the first half. The offense broke through for a couple of impactful drives as well vs. a solid Brent Venables-led defense. Still, I think Arkansas can play well enough at home to make this a 1-possession game at the end.
Actionable bet to consider: Arkansas +6.5 vs. Ole Miss (-110 on Caesars)
Selling: Pitt is an ACC title contender
Quietly, Pitt is one of a handful of undefeated teams left at the FBS level. The Panthers are 7-0 and still very much alive in the race for a College Football Playoff berth, but they do have a big test coming up this weekend against an SMU team that’s also unbeaten in ACC play.
For a bunch of reasons, I’m more bullish on SMU than Pitt. The Panthers may be a bit overinflated due to their undefeated record when they could very easily have multiple losses (they needed wild comebacks to beat West Virginia and Cincinnati). That’s especially true a week after Pitt trounced Syracuse due to a 5-interception day from Kyle McCord (even though Pitt didn’t play particularly well offensively).
Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein has received plenty of praise this season (including from me early on), but the numbers suggest he’s been extremely fortunate. Per PFF, Holstein is responsible for a whopping 14 turnover-worth-plays this season. By contrast to his actual results, Holstein only has 5 interceptions. At some point, his luck is going to run out and he’s going to get burned.
SMU is a pretty good bet to make Holstein and the Panthers pay for any dangerous throws. The Mustangs are 2nd in the ACC in interceptions with 12. I’m also not that concerned with SMU’s performance against Duke last week. That was a lookahead spot for SMU with the Panthers on deck and an emotional day for the Blue Devils with David Cutcliffe and other Duke football royalty making their return to campus.
Actionable bet to consider: SMU -7 vs. Pitt (-110 on bet365)
Buying: Miami runs the state of Florida … and will for a while
Miami coach Mario Cristobal had a quote that caught my attention in the wake of the Canes’ blowout win over Florida State on Saturday.
“All recruits, in-state, out of state, can now clearly see the trajectory of this program vs. the other programs (in Florida),” Cristobal said.
It’s hard to argue with him. Miami is undefeated while FSU and Florida are floundering, albeit to different degrees. Miami has blown out both teams this season, too.
And if you look at the current recruiting rankings for the class of 2025, it doesn’t seem like Miami is going anywhere. While the Noles have been losing recruits left and right, Miami’s class ranks 12th nationally, per 247Sports Composite rankings. FSU and Florida clock in at No. 48 and No. 50, respectively, with less than 2 months to go before the Early Signing Period.
Miami’s 8-0 start is legit, too, statistically-speaking. Miami has played in a couple of close games that came down to the wire, creating something of narrative that the Canes are lucky to still be undefeated. But Miami has 7.8 expected wins this season per Bill Connelly’s post-game win expectancy formula, suggesting that Miami’s 8-0 start is no fluke.
Selling: Indiana’s offense can keep this going
Last week, I took IU’s team total under 30.5 points against Washington. That bet lost by a half point, but not because Indiana’s offense was any good last week against the Huskies. They largely weren’t. The Hoosiers scored 14 quick points of Will Rogers interceptions and never looked back despite only averaging 4.4 yards per play against Washington.
I’m going back to the well again this week with the assumption that Kurtis Rourke will remain sidelined for at least another game. Indiana’s offense did not run nearly as smoothly under Tayven Jackson last week and the Hoosiers will be facing a Michigan State defense that ranks 33rd in ESPN’s SP+ ratings. Maybe I’ll regret this because Aidan Chiles throws a pick-6 just like Rogers did — but it’s a bet I’m willing to make.
Actionable bet to consider: Indiana team total under 29.5 points (-114 via FanDuel)
Buying: Penn State needs Drew Allar healthy if it wants to compete with Ohio State
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar suffered an injury in the win over Wisconsin that kept him out of the second half of that game. Details are still unknown at this point, but Allar is certainly at least questionable for this weekend’s top-5 tilt with the Buckeyes.
I’ believe that Penn State needs Allar to be healthy in order to be competitive against Ohio State. Allar wasn’t great in this spot a year ago, but he’s made legitimate strides this season. His big-time throw rate is up, per PFF, and he’s also increased his average depth of target to just under 10 yards per throw this season.
Beau Pribula, who replaced Allar against the Badgers and would presumably start against Ohio State, has shown no signs of being able to force the issue as a passer. Pribula had an ADOT of just 5.6 yards vs. Wisconsin, which indicates to me that there’s still a relatively low level of trust between Pribula and the coaching staff. That’s certainly not an uncommon dynamic with a young backup quarterback, but it is concerning if Penn State has to rely on Pribula at any point next weekend. This is something to monitor very closely throughout the week.
Selling: Texas is in a rut
The final score says one thing about Texas’s win over Vanderbilt on Saturday, but the advanced stats say something completely different.
The peripherals from UT’s win show an utterly dominant performance in the Longhorns’ 27-24 victory in Nashville. The Longhorns ended the game with big advantages in yards-per-play, success rate, EPA, 3rd-down success rate and explosive play rate. The vast majority of Vanderbilt’s offense came off turnovers, but the Commodores were otherwise pretty wasteful with their opportunities.
Quinn Ewers needs to get the turnovers under control, but I’m otherwise not worried at all by what I saw out of Texas on Saturday vs. the Commodores.
Buying: Kentucky is broken
Since Kentucky’s upset win over Ole Miss earlier this season, it’s been all downhill for the Wildcats. UK has lost 3 games in a row, all in disappointing fashion. Most recently, the Wildcats lost at home by 2 touchdowns to an Auburn team that was previously-winless in SEC play.
Kentucky was bad on both sides of the ball against Auburn, which has been happening all too often lately. The Wildcats now rank 69th nationally in Game on Paper’s adjusted EPA-per-play stat — and are trending downward.
Looking at the big picture, Kentucky is now 28-60 in SEC play during the Mark Stoops era. It’s been 6 years since the Wildcats even went .500 in conference play. Those results aren’t good enough for a program that’s paying its head coach about $9 million annually.
Stoops’ buyout is likely too much for the program to manage — his deal runs until June of 2031 — but I don’t blame Kentucky fans for being frustrated with the product this year, especially in recent weeks. I’m not sure this is a situation that’s recoverable this season.
Actionable bet to consider: Tennessee -15.5 vs. Kentucky (-110 on BetMGM)
Buying: Davis Warren is Michigan’s best option
Davis Warren started against Michigan State and delivered his best performance of the year. It was a turnover-free game that saw Warren throw for 123 yards and 1 touchdown on 19 attempts.
That’s not a stat line that jumps off the page, but it’s been a pretty low bar to clear for the Wolverines this season. Warren’s peripherals have been better than Jack Tuttle’s or Alex Orji’s all season — Warren was just turning the ball over too often during the first few weeks of the year. If he can cut out the interceptions, I think Michigan can have a functional offense down the stretch.
Not for nothing, Warren also earned an enthusiastic endorsement from running back Donovan Edwards in the postgame press conference.
It’s worth noting that Michigan has No. 1 Oregon coming to town this week — so I’m not betting on any Michigan team totals in Week 10. But depending on how that game goes, there may be an opportunity to buy low on the Wolverines in Week 11 against Indiana.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
