10 things I'm absolutely overreacting to after Week 12, starting with the decision to play Tua
I don’t want to hear it, a’ight?
Nick Saban blew it — and his decision to play Tua Tagovailoa just altered the College Football Playoff chase and maybe his star QB’s NFL future.
Of course Tagovailoa’s season-ending hip injury is going to dominate the 10 things I’m absolutely overreacting to after Week 12 in and around the SEC.
10. Well, Nick, you outsmarted yourself this time
The practical thing was to put Tua Tagovailoa in bubble wrap for 2 weeks and save him for Auburn. That’s what I wrote last week in this space. There was no way I would have played Tua against Mississippi State or Western Carolina. I would have sat him and made sure he was 100% healthy for Auburn.
Again, this isn’t second-guessing after the fact. It’s what I wrote last week.
Alas, nobody tells Nick Saban how to run his program.
Now? This very likely will be the last play we see from Tagovailoa in a Bama uniform.
Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa goes down hard, visibly in pain and is being helped off the field@AlabamaFTBL | #RollTide pic.twitter.com/vySHyVBufY
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) November 16, 2019
Again, why did he play?
You can say, oh, it was a hip injury. You can say it was a fluke. Saban called it a freak injury and made sure to note it was unrelated to any other injury. You could say, like Saban did at halftime, that Alabama needs to block better so he doesn’t get tackled.
I’d say he couldn’t escape pressure because of his right ankle.
He shouldn’t have been in the ballgame at any point, much less up 35-7 late in the 1st half.
Why in the hail is Tua in the game when you are up 35-7? That makes no sense. None!
— David Pollack (@davidpollack47) November 16, 2019
It’s indefensible. It’s borderline irresponsible.
And it probably just cost Alabama a shot at the national title and, depending on the severity of his dislocated hip, might have cost Tua a shot at being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Here’s Nick Saban’s halftime interview with ESPN on Tua Tagovailoa’s hip injury and the plan before halftime pic.twitter.com/ZKixkhf2Ds
— Marq Burnett (@Marq_Burnett) November 16, 2019
Too bad? Too bad? The optics of this interview were worse than Saban intended, but the heat he should catch for his decision? Yeah, too bad.
9. Alabama’s Playoff hopes are done
They’re not the same team with Mac Jones. It’s as simple as that. That’s not an insult. That’s not throwing shade. It’s acknowledging the obvious.
Alabama won by 31, so maybe the Playoff committee will keep them at No. 5.
I wouldn’t. There is a new reality that can’t be ignored.
If this Tide defense were as dominant as some of its earlier glory-year versions, I’d be willing to listen to how, at 11-1, Bama still could deserve a No. 4 Playoff seed. If I truly believed it, I’d campaign for it. But this Tide defense isn’t close to that.
This Tide team had to outscore you. And this Tide team, with Mac Jones slinging the arrows instead of Tua, simply can’t.
Alabama scored 3 points after Tua was carted off with a season-ending injury.
It’s over.
No Tua, no logical argument for inclusion.
8. Will this impact younger brother Tualia?
This is a fascinating storyline nobody is talking about. Yet.
But if you are the Tagovailoas and your oldest son potentially just saw his future change because of a questionable decision to play him when he wasn’t 100%, does that change your opinion of the head coach?
I don’t know. The Tagovailoas are deeply religious and likely will see Saturday as part of a higher plan. And maybe he can recover from a dislocated hip and have a productive NFL career. Maybe he’ll still go early in the 1st-round and be set financially for life.
But what if this injury is Bo-like?
If it’s as bad as it looked, the family’s view is certainly something to monitor moving forward.
7. Don’t ever count out Jalen Hurts, Part 324 …
Oklahoma’s Playoff hopes were done.
Undefeated Baylor, playing at home, led Oklahoma by 25.
It was over.
Nah. It was Jalen Time.
Jalen Hurts, who had 2 early turnovers that contributed to the early deficit, rallied the Sooners with one of his greatest games. Obviously, that’s saying something.
He engineered the largest comeback in Oklahoma football history. Obviously, that’s saying something.
Hurts finished with 297 passing yards, 4 passing TDs and 114 yards rushing as Oklahoma, down 28-3, won 34-31.
Hurts threw 3 of the TD passes in the second half, including 2 in the 4th quarter as the Sooners closed with a 24-0 run to stay in the Playoff hunt.
Hurts won’t win the Heisman. Joe Burrow will. But Hurts will be in New York to congratulate him.
6. What to do about Mizzou …
Do you get rid of Barry Odom? Do you get rid of Derek Dooley? You already know you’ll have a 3rd starting QB in 3 years next year. Do you have any confidence in either at this point?
Florida’s defense is outstanding, so that should temper some of the overreaction after Mizzou’s latest offensive dud.
But that’s the thing: It was merely Mizzou’s latest offensive dud. It wasn’t an outlier.
Mizzou has averaged 6.8 points in its past 4 games and scored 1 TD in its past 3 games.
Mizzou is 5-5 in a season in which many predicted they would contend for an SEC East title.
I was not among that group, however. In the offseason, I picked Mizzou as 1 of the 3 teams I thought would win 3 fewer games in 2019 than they did in 2018. Maybe that’s why I haven’t overreacted to some of their previous losses. I never thought this team was going to be that good.
Mizzou is what it is. The question for school officials is, is that good enough?
5. Bottom 5 of Power 5
The worst of the weak, in order of ineptitude, because the alphabet is far too forgiving.
1. Texas (Big 12): Can everybody agree that the Longhorns are not, in fact, back? How many times do they have to lose before they fall out of the Top 25 for good?
2. Michigan State’s offense (Big Ten): For the 4th time in the Spartans’ 5 losses, they were held to 10 points or fewer. They are 12th in the B1G in scoring … after finishing ahead of only Rutgers in 2018. MSU hasn’t finished higher than 10th in its conference in scoring since 2015 — and that team was promptly shut out in the Playoff loss to Alabama.
3. Missouri’s play-calling (SEC): The misuse of Larry Rountree is puzzling. He hasn’t had more than 15 carries in any of Mizzou’s past 4 games — again, all losses. He had just 7 carries Saturday against Florida.
4. Northwestern (Big Ten): I’d say they overpaid … but the Cats put up a season-high 48 points and scored more than they had in their previous 5 games combined.
UMass (1-9) at Northwestern (1-8) today.
Two seats on the 50 are available for $4.
— Brad Crawford (@BCrawford247) November 16, 2019
5. Scott Frost, Nebraska (Big Ten): Imagine what the extension would have been if Nebraska were, you know, actually good.
4. The 4 Playoff teams are …
No. 1 LSU, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Clemson, No. 4 Georgia.
There’s no debate. No drama. No dispute.
Oregon should move up to No. 5, jumping Alabama. But the Ducks have no chance to catch Georgia unless Georgia loses. And the Ducks won’t pass LSU, either, if the Tigers’ only loss is against Georgia in the SEC title game.
Why? Auburn.
LSU beat Auburn. Georgia outlasted Auburn (at Auburn). Auburn beat Oregon in a neutral-site game. As I’ve noted numerous times, Oregon’s Playoff hopes hinged on Auburn beating Georgia and Alabama.
Minnesota? I’ve told you for 2 weeks don’t waste mental energy worrying about the Gophers because they weren’t good enough to run the table.
Sorry, Tim Brando. Grab a life jacket. More water is coming.
Meanwhile, in Iowa City #MINNvsIOWA https://t.co/Cik8XxXuwW pic.twitter.com/teVJeL2fDC
— Terrance Donnels (@LSUFreek) November 17, 2019
Oklahoma is officially back in the hunt, too. They’ll be back at No. 6 when I predict the top 10 on Tuesday morning.
I’m still trying to figure out what’s realistic and fair for Alabama.
3. Butch Jones to Arkansas? I like the idea
It’s Flight Tracking SZN, so we spent the past week sorting out rumors about Arkansas’ coaching search. I like several of the Group of 5 coaches reportedly drawing interest, but I really like the idea of Butch Jones getting a second chance at Arkansas.
It’s fair to question whether he’s even a candidate. There are reports on both sides.
Wish all you want, but you’re not getting Mike Leach, unless he’s ready to retire in 4 years, anyway. You’re not poaching a successful, well-paid Power 5 head coach.
You’re getting somebody who deserves a second chance or a Group of 5 type.
But Jones is the right kind of fit for Arkansas: gritty, hard-nosed, a football coach’s football coach who has had success in this league.
Tennessee had good recruiting classes, but other SEC teams had better ones. You could argue Jones got at least as much out of that talent as the rankings suggested he should. That’s paramount at a place like Arkansas, which won’t ever be better than 4th in SEC West recruiting.
2. Can Jake Fromm really win a national title?
His Bulldogs won again, at Auburn, in a Playoff résumé booster. There is no doubt after Saturday that Georgia will stay at No. 4 in Tuesday’s Playoff rankings.
Fromm threw his best pass of the season, maybe his best pass as a Bulldog, to give Georgia early control.
Jake Fromm wanted it ALL on this one. pic.twitter.com/uO8Z56XnSB
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) November 16, 2019
After that?
More questions about his ceiling, his arm strength … his ability to win it all. He finished with 3 TDs, but the 3rd was a short swing pass after a questionable personal foul that extended Georgia’s drive. That completion pushed Fromm’s stat line to 12-for-24 for 110 yards.
He finished 13-for-28 for 110 yards, a Vanderbilt-esque 3.9 yards per attempt. You could argue that in the 2nd half, counterpart Bo Nix outplayed him.
You can debate whether Fromm is the weakest QB in a field that includes Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert. I think he is.
But what you can’t debate is Fromm has had the poorest season in the group.
Maybe Georgia’s defense is so good that it won’t matter. Maybe Georgia’s defense is so good that it can hold Burrow and LSU to 24 points and win the SEC championship. Auburn held Burrow and the Tigers to 23.
But Playoff games tend to reach the 30s and it’s difficult to see this Georgia offense getting there.
1. As in … Joe Burrow’s place in LSU record book
Another week, another broken record.
Burrow already holds LSU’s single-game record for TD passes. Every week he adds to his single-season record for TD passes (now 38). Saturday, he broke LSU’s single-season record for passing yards. He now has 3,687.
He’s well ahead of pace to break the SEC marks for passing yards (Tim Couch, 4,275) and TD passes (Drew Lock, 44), especially if you account for postseason games. He might break both in the regular season.
For those who want to note that Couch set the record in 11 games in 1998, fine. Just know that he threw 553 passes — an average of 51 passes per game.
Burrow is averaging 34 passes per game — so he couldn’t even get to 553 unless the Tigers played 16 games — which they can’t. And he still might break it in 11 games.
Admire what he’s doing. It’s historic.
Butch Jones is a morally corrupt jackass who has no business mentoring young men. It would be incredibly disappointing to see Arky go in that direction.
Well said
“questionable personal foul call”??? Other than that dumb comment, nice article.
You couldn’t be further from the truth on Butch. I’m embarrassed for you.
LSU gave up 600 yards to Ole Miss.
We’ll see what happens December 7th.
Unless Fromm suddenly starts running like Plumlee, Georgia won’t even sniff what Ole Miss did.
Nope, but I am so glad to see there is a chance…
Well you answered your own question about why Tua was in. Right after that you stated bama only scored 3 pts after Tua went out. He went out in the first half so Tua still playing doesn’t seem so dumb to me. Unless you are only considering the use of a crystal ball.
You are the only one who could argue butch jones got as much out of the talent he had as rankings suggested. He classically underachieved with top talent. Kamari played second fiddle his time at UT, Hurd was a disaster, dobbs was drawing up plays in the dirt and didn’t start developing a passing game until drafted… the list goes on. Jones couldn’t develop a brick in a wall, pun intended!
And Fromm had as many TD throws vs. Auburn as Trask and Burrow – combined. And no turnovers and only one sack.
SEC QB RATINGS
1. Tua Tagovailoa 206.93
2. Joe Burrow 202.67
3. Kyle Trask 158.00
4. Jarrett Guarantano 151.28
5. Jake Fromm 146.02 <-LOL
“LOL” Really… Well, I’ll be watching The Dawgs on 7Dec19 while you and the rest of the gator nation will be watching reruns of NP’s Christmas Vacation co-starring you know who. And when The Dawgs take care of business, I’ll be doing the Kirby shuffle. Should for some strange reason they get an L, The Dawgs still did the representing and Fromm will still be 3 and OH! against their biggest rivals. Wish I coulda gotten the header, “Gator Hater” cause I’m a top 5 at the very least. Suck it!
Fromm>Trask. Enough said. Pretty sure you guys are still having 3rd down nightmares. LOL!
You know what’s really funny is he’s 3-0 vs Florida and won the east every season he’s been here. LOL. LOL. LOL. Enjoy a qb ranking and not playing anymore games that matter. LOL.
God, you’re reactionary take on Tua is terrible. Sure, if Nick had your magic 8-ball shoved up his butt, he might have seen this coming.
But Bama had to win and win big in this game to stay relevant. Mac Jones slingin’ those arrows, as you so eloquently put, would not get it done here. He scored 3 points in the second half. They may not win that game at all without Tua.
That being said, Tua is a grown man, a young man, but still grown. Tua can make his own decisions, and he can live with them afterwards as well. Tua, along with his parents, the medical staff, and whomever else got involved made this decision, not Nick Saban, decided he was healthy enough to play in this game. Nick Saban was merely told yes or no. As Nick Saban said, if he is healthy enough to play in the game, he can’t be worried about him getting injured.
So he should have come out at 35-7. I understand this. But again, Bama’s D isn’t like other years, you say. What if State gets hot in the second half, like Bama did last week against LSU. It happens.
I guess it just makes me wonder why you still need to work, having that magic 8 ball of yours. You should be a billionaire by now.
21 is not a grown man. He’s still a kid.
I hate when people want to call college athletes kids. These guys are legally adults. If any of them commit any kind of crime they aren’t going to juvy. They would be tried as adults. So at 21 he’s a grown man.
Societally speaking, he’s an adult. Mental development continues until 26ish.
Philly, PLEASE keep posting!
I’ve read your posts and you seem to have a true grasp on college football.
You are a ‘legend’ on this site.
I feel honored to have you commenting on my posts.
Slamming Mike Leach? That comments was fantastic.
Going after Nick Saban! WOW, he’s such a loser.
To be in the company of those two MEN, both over 21, (remember that comment?) and not kids, is great.
Don’t go away.
KEEP POSTING!
There’s a healthy dose of bullcrap in this “article”.
I’m still confused as to what mistake Saban made? Mac Jones is really not that good so far anyways. JG plays with a broken hand that has pins in it. How many players play injured to some degree. Gia going out there is fine. Nothing wrong with that. Saban won’t catch any real heat and he won’t care if he does and it won’t change the fact he gets to choose when to retire. Do you really think his AD or anyone else is gonna say jack to him? Lay off the Saban hate. I usually like your articles Chris but wow this one is silly and kinda immature.
Tua not Gia*
You’re right that players play banged up all the time. Nobody can predict someone is going to get hurt and these coaches are trying to get their players hurt. It’s a terrible thing but he was playing football and playing it very well before the injury happened..
In what universe is Butch Jones a hard nosed, gritty coach that gets a level of performance out of his players equal to their recruiting ranking? It was his literal failure to do any of that which resulted in his firing. You more closely just described Pruitt.
Well, the universe is infinite, so in some reality, there’s a Butch Jones who won a natty and is gritty.
LOL fair enough
“Alabama scored 3 points after Tua was carted off with a season-ending injury.”
Maybe that’s why Saban played Tua? LOL
“Again, this isn’t second-guessing after the fact. It’s what I wrote last week.”
There is a difference between being right and guessing right. This isn’t Tyrone Prothro-level coaching idiocy. This is a coach trying to get to the playoff. We can all debate the differing philosophies as to whether you play or sit players, rest vs. rust, etc. But these teams play 12 violent games every year, and players get hurt. And I’m glad I’m not paid tens of millions of dollars to make the decisions on whether to put someone in the meat grinder.
Chris Wright continues to find ways to whine about how he keeps being wrong about Georgia, and now it’s running down Jake Fromm.
What Chris Wright doesn’t talk about, because it’s not the anti-Georgia narrative he keeps on wanting to push, is how Jake Fromm is not served well by a terrible offensive scheme. If this were Mike Bobo’s offense, Jake Fromm would put up the same kind of numbers Aaron Murray did, if not better. NFL Scouts and Executives love Jake Fromm and think he’s better than Herbert and others, but not Chris Wright, who for once just wants to be right about Georgia not being good.
Chris Wright has been downing Georgia and Fromm all year. He picked Florida. He picked Auburn. He keeps being wrong.
I think we should call you Chris Wrong from now on.
The best part of this is how you know what NFL scouts and front offices think about Jake Fromm Because Internet.
I don’t want to comment before I’m sure – is the idea that by calling these “overreactions”, it’s an admission they’re absurd hot takes that deserve to be made fun of?
First off, how can he be the goat but always be wrong? Nobody takes their starting qb out in the first half. Burrow played the entire game, despite a 31-7 lead, and as LSU was outscored in second half nobody is second-guessing that. Second, bama has a better shot at the playoff than UGA, unless they pull off a miracle in Atlanta, the big12 or the PAC could benefit, though. Third, BUTCH JONES? You really hate the razorbacks, don’t you? Fourth, your bottom 5 is nonsense, particularly frost. Moorhead should a clear #1 for any such ranking and should out the door before the turkey is in the fridge. OM looks capable of embarassin g us. Overreacting, indeed, maybe just good old fashioned idiocy.
How does bama have a better shot? UGA controls their destiny while Alabama has to hope and pray for a lot of help. You also say UGA needs a miracle to beat LSU. Unlike Pi$$ State, UGA has the talent to do it.
UGA defense is getting shredded in Atlanta.
How can you say that LSU beat Auburn and UGA only outlasted them? UGA beat them and LSU outlasted them. UGA gets no respect for beating the same team at Auburn by more than LSU did at home.
Also, it’s funny to watch you people ride Bama’s jock every week. Their best years are behind them.