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I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again — friends don’t let friends bet on preseason Heisman Trophy favorites.
I’m unsuccessfully working on getting that trademarked. Why? Well, since 2009, Marcus Mariota is the only top-2 preseason Heisman Trophy favorite who won the award. It’s become the trend that every preseason Heisman bettor should know. Yes, that includes Caleb Williams being 3rd in the 2022 preseason odds, as was Jayden Daniels, though it’s worth noting that there were places where you could get him at No. 2 in the preseason odds in August after a late preseason push.
Still, though. That’s a 16-year sample size wherein history tells us that betting on a preseason Heisman favorite isn’t a good return on investment. You’re better off throwing a flier at someone like Travis Hunter, who was 50-to-1 to win the award in the preseason.
(On a related note, if you’re looking for a place to bet on the Heisman Trophy, SDS has you covered with the latest odds.)
So for today’s exercise, we’re looking for at least 25-to-1 or better on our money. On DraftKings, that eliminates the following guys:
- Arch Manning +700
- Garrett Nussmeier +900
- Drew Allar +1000
- Cade Klubnik +1400
- Julian Sayin +1500
- Jeremiah Smith +1600
- Nico Iamaleava +1800
- Carson Beck +2000
- LaNorris Sellers +2200
Those 9 guys are off the table for Heisman value bets. These guys have a much better case (all odds via DraftKings):
Florida QB DJ Lagway, +2500
If you’re not on board the Lagway hype train, you’ve got a few more months before it leaves the station for good. Lagway was a monumental reason why Florida finished the 2024 season on a somewhat improbable 4-game winning streak that saved his coach’s job. Mind you, that was with limited mobility from a hamstring injury that he suffered against Georgia. Lagway already showed the ability to make ridiculous next-level throws — he averaged an FBS-best 20.4 yards per attempt on throws of 20 yards — as a true freshman. With a full offseason with the first-teamers, there’s no reason why we won’t see even more of that in 2025.
Getting Tre Wilson back healthy will be important, and Florida‘s passing game outlook would improve even more by adding another receiver in the post-spring transfer portal. Lagway is still facing a daunting schedule, but each of the last 3 winners missed out on the College Football Playoff. Lagway could put together a 40-touchdown season with no shortage of jaw-dropping throws en route to winning the honor.
Alabama WR Ryan Williams, +2800
Williams might’ve won the award last year if the voting had taken place after the Georgia game. Unfortunately for Williams, that was the last time he hit 90 yards in a game. Blame it on the quarterback situation and/or the fact that being a No. 1 receiver as a 17-year-old — you might’ve heard that he just turned 18 in early February — is no small task. He’s now got a full year of experience of dealing with that type of coverage. Call me crazy, but I think he could be better for that. Much like we saw when DeVonta Smith win the Heisman in 2020, Williams has the benefit of being the more established player compared to whoever Alabama‘s first-time starting quarterback is. Keep that in mind.
Also keep in mind that Williams’ production fell off considerably in the last 2 months of the season, and he still had the most receiving yards of any true freshman SEC wide receiver since 2015. He’s an exceptional talent with next-level body control. Williams didn’t have the storybook ending that classmate Jeremiah Smith did, but maybe that could benefit him in Year 2 if he emerges as the better player. After 2 non-quarterbacks won Heismans in the front half of the decade, Williams could be No. 3 in the 2020s.
Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons, +3500
Jaxson Dart finished his college career all over the Ole Miss record book, and yet, there’s a growing sentiment that Simmons could have an even higher ceiling than his predecessor. That’s telling. Also telling was that Simmons, who famously reclassified from 2025 to 2023, beat out coveted LSU transfer Walker Howard for the backup job. Simmons then stepped in for an injured Dart after a disastrous start against Georgia and delivered arguably the most important touchdown drive of Ole Miss’ season. That could be either a 2020 DJ Uiagalelei-at-Notre Dame overvalued sample size, or it could be a Tua Tagovailoa 2nd-and-26 positive omen.
(Also, Simmons shares a stunning resemblance to Tagovailoa. They’re separated by a few inches, but count how many times the 2 Kiffin quarterbacks are compared to one another on a broadcast in 2025.)
The former 2-sport athlete put his baseball career on hold to go all in with this opportunity to be Lane Kiffin’s QB1. In Kiffin’s 8 combined seasons at Alabama and Ole Miss, he coached 4 different All-SEC quarterbacks. Simmons can not just become the 5th member of that club, but the southpaw could set the sport ablaze. He’s got plenty of talent with a mostly new-look supporting cast — but don’t sleep on the underrated Cayden Lee — and what appears to be a favorable schedule to put up gaudy numbers.
Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt, +4500
We’re a year removed from the ASU offense producing a top-5 Heisman finisher. That guy, Cam Skattebo, was someone that I put at the No. 3 spot on my ballot. Now, Skattebo is gone and it’s Leavitt’s turn to be driving force of Kenny Dillingham’s offense. That’s not to say that Leavitt wasn’t that guy in key moments last year, but when you’ve got someone as invincible as Skattebo, you’d be foolish not to feed him 30 touches a game. Leavitt continued to progress, albeit with a few terrifying moments as a decision-maker. The guy had 51 undesigned scrambles, which was most among Power Conference quarterbacks. That should be a bit less chaotic in Year 2 as a starter. Harnessing that ability to escape pressure while making some highlight-reel plays should be the expectation for Leavitt.
Also working in Leavitt’s favor is the fact that Jordyn Tyson returns as 1 of the 5 best receivers in the sport. That rapport looked elite before Tyson went down late in the season. That might be the most proven returning quarterback-receiver connection in America. That could be at the foundation of a year in which Leavitt hits 30 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns for a repeat Big 12 champ. Leavitt should be must-see TV. That feels significant for any Heisman path in 2025.
Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love, +6000
When Love was healthy and leading the Notre Dame offense in the latter half of 2024, he was a top-10 player in America. Shoot, even when he wasn’t healthy, he still ripped off a 98-yard touchdown run in a Playoff game and he hurdled dudes left and right. If you’re going to be a running back with Heisman aspirations in the internet age, you have to be capable of making the viral plays. The hurdle-happy Love certainly qualifies. There’s a ton to love with … Love. Sorry, but I had to. For a Notre Dame team that’s loaded on the offensive line, Love will be the face of an Irish offense that should have more running opportunities available with the run-focused Riley Leonard off to the NFL.
And yes, I know that Ashton Jeanty was just the second running back to get a New York invite in the last 9 years (that’s after Derrick Henry beat out Christian McCaffrey for the 2015 Heisman). But are we perhaps getting back to an appreciation of running backs? Could an emerging Love benefit from Jeanty finally putting a running back into that conversation again? It’s definitely possible. A 2,000-yard regular season could give the Heisman to a running back for the first time in a decade.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
