5 takeaways from the preseason AP Poll
Preseason polls don’t determine success, but yes, they matter.
Rankings sell tickets, they sell recruits, they sell boosters and they sell TV ratings. These things matter in a sport with an 8-month offseason.
And here’s the other thing. If you’re a 5-7 team and you get preseason Top 25 love the following season, how exactly have you earned that? Unless you signed an unprecedented transfer portal haul of proven Power 5 starters, no, I’m not deeming that worthy of instantly jumping the line and starting off ranked.
It’s also a whole lot easier to finish with a top-10 season if you start in the AP Top 25. So I do think there’s significance in preseason rankings.
Here were my 5 takeaways from the 2023 preseason AP Poll, which was released Monday:
1. Georgia is No. 1, but the better question is … how was it not unanimous?
Think about this: Georgia is a 2-time defending national champ who went 29-1 the past 2 seasons. The lone loss was a neutral-site game against the greatest coach of all-time (Nick Saban) with a Heisman Trophy winner (Bryce Young) playing the best game of his career. The Dawgs repeated with a perfect 15-0 season after losing 15 (!) players to the NFL Draft.
And yet, 3 AP voters were like “nah, that’s not worthy of starting No. 1.”
This is why 2015 Ohio State is the only unanimous preseason No. 1 since the preseason AP Poll became a thing in 1950. We have voters who have wildly overthought Georgia, which, you know, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since November 2020. A total of 60 voters went with the Dawgs while 2 voters picked Michigan and 1 picked Ohio State.
Here’s the other thing — if this argument for a non-Georgia team to start at No. 1 is “I don’t think they’ll win a national title,” that’s dumb. For what it’s worth, I have Ohio State beating Georgia to win a national title, and in no world would I rank the Buckeyes No. 1 to start the 2023 season.
Some things I’ll never understand. Not giving the 2-time defending national champs a preseason No. 1 nod is one of them.
2. I don’t have a problem with Nos. 2-4 for Michigan, Ohio State and Alabama, but remember something
The AP voters had Michigan at No. 2, Ohio State at No. 3 and Alabama at No. 4. I can mostly be talked into any argument for 2-through-4, so long as those are the 3 teams in it. In my preseason Top 25, I had the same thing.
After all, Michigan is coming off season starts of 12-1 and 13-0 wherein it trucked Ohio State both times. The Wolverines also rank No. 5 in percentage of returning production. A Playoff team that brings back that kind of production is unheard of.
If we were talking about a vintage Alabama team returning, this wouldn’t be a discussion. But we’re not. The Tide had 5 regular-season games that came down to the final minute, and it lost to the 2 best teams on the schedule. We’re also talking about a team that ranks No. 125 in percentage of returning production with a new starting quarterback and 2 new coordinators. That’s why Alabama has its lowest preseason ranking since 2009.
At the same time, remember something about Michigan. As great as the Wolverines have been these past 2 years, when was the last time they did anything outside the Big Ten? In the past 6 seasons, they’re 1-6 against non-Big Ten Power 5 teams that went to a bowl game. That included a blowout loss to Georgia in the 2021 Playoff semifinals and a major letdown against a TCU team in the 2022 semifinals.
Now compare that to an Alabama team that hasn’t lost to a team outside of the SEC since the 2018 title game against a historically dominant Clemson team. And yeah, it’s still a team that finished No. 5 in America in a “floor season.” Not too shabby. Neither is playing in a national championship in 2 out of the past 3 seasons.
Again, Michigan still earned that No. 2 spot and it has to start ahead of Ohio State for obvious head-to-head reasons, but don’t tell yourself that it’s a slam dunk and that it’s miles ahead of Alabama.
3. The most underrated team was … Utah
Ah, yes. America’s team. Underrated once again.
I had the Utes at No. 8, but AP voters had them all the way down at No. 14. If “strength of schedule” is your argument, take a lap. Yes, Utah has an absolute gauntlet ahead, but ranking a team based on future opponents is silly at best and a fireable offense at worst.
Remember when Utah beat USC twice last year? Like, USC with Caleb Williams? I remember that, too. I also remember Cam Rising further establishing himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the sport and then deciding to return for another season. Yes, he’s coming off a torn ACL, but he’s expected to return for the start of the season.
Beyond Rising, Utah ranks No. 16 in America in percentage of returning production coming off its 2nd consecutive Pac-12 title. It retained the underrated Andy Ludwig at offensive coordinator, and it added 8 transfers from Power 5 programs.
Utah deserved to start ahead of anyone in the Pac-12 outside of maybe Washington … but not USC.
4. The most overrated teams were … Texas and Oklahoma
How about that? In their final seasons in the Big 12, 2 teams that combined for 12 losses are both getting the benefit of the doubt.
I get the Texas love. A healthy Quinn Ewers should change the potential of this team, and the fact that Steve Sarkisian made some explosive additions on both sides of the transfer portal certainly helped that cause. At the same time, a preseason No. 11 ranking for a squad with 1 top-15 finish and 1 New Year’s 6 bowl/BCS appearance since 2010 seems like jumping the gun.
And Oklahoma gets the “well, last year was probably an outlier” treatment. It might’ve been an outlier, but it was a losing season for a team with a first-time head coach. Starting this season at No. 20 feels undeserving. At least Texas is ranked in the top 20 in percentage of returning production. Oklahoma didn’t even crack the top 70 in FBS in that category, and that’s on the heels of a 3-6 mark in Big 12 play.
But hey, traditional powers always get the benefit of the doubt.
4A. Oh, and A&M doesn’t belong in the Top 25, either
A 5-7 season, a 13-11 mark over the past 2 seasons … nope. Even with what should be a significantly improved team, that’s not worthy of a preseason ranking of No. 23.
5. Ranking Clemson ahead of Tennessee makes no sense
Did the Orange Bowl happen? Or did I just dream that?
I’m pretty sure I watched Joe Milton lead 2-loss Tennessee to a blowout victory of Cade Klubnik and 3-loss Clemson. Yet a few short months later, Clemson was ranked No. 9 while Tennessee came in at No. 12.
I get that Garrett Riley came on board and there’s an expectation that the Tigers’ offense will improve significantly will the Broyles Award winner calling plays. What I don’t believe is that he’s suddenly an upgrade over Josh Heupel, who has nothing but top-8 offenses the past 5 seasons.
Plus, let’s not forget that Clemson still isn’t exactly “the portal king.” Shoot, Dabo Swinney isn’t even a portal acknowledger yet. Tennessee, on the other hand, added 7 players from Power 5 programs since that beatdown of Clemson.
You can have faith that Clemson turns it around while also acknowledging that sticking the Tigers ahead of the squad it just trucked by makes little sense.