Editor’s note: Welcome back to Saturday Down South’s annual Top 25 Week. Every day this week will feature different rankings and analysis of teams, players and coaches. We kick off our annual college football preview with the Top 25 teams in the country.

* * * * * * * * * *

Let’s agree to disagree.

You came here and immediately bypassed the part where I explained why I rank the preseason Top 25 the way that I do. You went down to where your team or your rival’s team was ranked and tried to figure out my biases.

Good luck with that.

I try to call it like I see it with everything, especially a preseason Top 25. Too many people try and use it as a predictor. As in, where do you believe a team will end up? In my opinion, that’s lunacy. If you’re ranking a team based on strength of schedule for games that haven’t happened yet, you’ve lost credibility.

A preseason ranking matters. Why? In a sport with an 8-month offseason, you’d better believe that’s a significant driver of conversation with things like ticket sales and recruiting. If you go 5-7 and then just get to bypass everyone else for a preseason Top 25 ranking, how have you earned that?

(No, I won’t be ranking Texas A&M in my preseason Top 25.)

I’d rather show bias toward teams that showed that they were top-tier teams the last time we saw them play. Obviously, other factors contribute to that. Offseason personnel moves are important. Coaching changes and transfer portal additions are more important to me with a preseason ranking than the most recent recruiting class.

Yes, talent acquisition is the lifeblood of a sport. But if your argument for why a team deserves a preseason Top 25 spot has to do with a loaded true freshman class, tell me how often you’ve said, “wow, that team is a contender and it’s all because of those true freshmen.” This ain’t basketball. Freshmen can absolutely emerge, but until we see a freshman class become the backbone of a Power 5 champion contender, leave it out of your preseason Top 25 ranking discussions.

So yes, I’ll default a lot to what we saw the previous year. You might agree with that. You might not.

OK, you can stop skimming and start pretending to read/get upset about where I have your team in my preseason Top 25 rankings for 2023.

25. Duke

Yes, Duke. Why? It’s a 9-win team that ranks in the top 1/4 nationally in percentage of returning production, and it boasts one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks in Riley Leonard. Oh, and Mike Elko is a darn good coach. Football school.

24. Mississippi State

Speaking of overlooked 9-win Power 5 teams, Mississippi State was totally written off in the preseason polls because of the death of Mike Leach. Zach Arnett is a first-time head coach, but he was the glue of that program throughout the Leach era. He returns his 2 most important pieces of that defense with Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson, and offensively, the prolific Will Rogers is undergoing a significant scheme change but is still battle-tested in the toughest division in America.

23. Wisconsin

I’ll admit that so much of this is the fact that I’m a major Luke Fickell fan. I think certain coaches just understand how to elevate the floor of a program, and that’s what he’ll do instantly in Madison. Seeing Phil Longo run the Air Raid will be fascinating, especially in mid-November when it’s snowing. Still, Braelon Allen and Tanner Mordecai should form an elite duo that lifts the Badgers back to relevance.

22. UNC

If Drake Maye is the best quarterback in America in 2023, it won’t be a surprise. But as we know, it has to be more than that. Gene Chizik’s defense simply has to improve after a rough transition year, and it should with 7 returning starters. Despite those woes, it was still a 9-win team that played for an ACC Championship. Even if Maye returns as the same player as he was in 2022, Mack Brown’s squad will be a tough weekly matchup.

21. South Carolina

Some might disagree with having the Gamecocks this high after some key transfer portal losses, and it’d be nice if Shane Beamer’s squad had a more proven RB1 option than converted quarterback Dakereon Joyner. But still, South Carolina was a giant killer down the stretch by taking down a pair of Playoff-hopeful top-10 teams. Fresh off its first AP Top 25 finish of the post-Steve Spurrier era, Spencer Rattler and Juice Wells returning was the difference in starting off in this ranking.

20. Texas Tech

I’m not sure people realized how strong the Red Raiders were late in 2022. They looked like a different team down the stretch with former Oregon quarterback Tyler Shough as the starter. Shough is back for a 6th year — he actually could have 2 more years of eligibility left — to lead an offense with 9 returning starters. The Red Raiders have a chance to build on their best season of the post-Mike Leach era.

19. Tulane

Willie Fritz is a darn good coach, and after a New Year’s 6 bowl comeback victory against USC, he should have another darn good team. Michael Pratt returned, along with an experienced offensive line. Most breakthrough seasons aren’t followed with a roster who ranks in the top 1/4 in FBS in percentage of returning production, but Tulane’s a rare exception.

18. Kansas State

Remember when Kansas State won the Big 12? I’m not sure enough people processed that because of the attention placed on what it meant for TCU’s Playoff chances. Yeah, Deuce Vaughn is gone. You know who isn’t? QB Will Howard, who was excellent down the stretch, and a loaded offensive line anchored by Cooper Beebe. Chris Klieman’s squad returns 8 offensive starters and should absolutely compete for another Big 12 title.

17. Texas

I’m a bit conflicted here because I’m buying the Longhorns while acknowledging they still haven’t put it all together in recent memory. Quinn Ewers was my pick to win the Heisman Trophy last year, and I didn’t sell any of that stock. His receiving room is loaded, especially with the addition of Georgia Playoff hero AD Mitchell. Even after losing Bijan Robinson, Steve Sarkisian’s squad ranks No. 3 in America in percentage of returning offensive production, and it actually had a top-30 defense last year. Do they have enough help in the secondary? And can they force some more turnovers? That’ll determine if the Longhorns can meet some sky-high expectations.

16. TCU

They’re coming off a national runner-up season. If you don’t think TCU is worthy of starting in the preseason Top 25, I don’t know what to tell you. Yeah, it was 65-7 against Georgia and Sonny Dykes’ squad lost a ton of offensive production (No. 130 in FBS) along with OC and Broyles Award winner Garrett Riley. But TCU did make some serious moves in the portal on that side of the ball, and it’ll still boast plenty of talent on defense with 3 preseason first-team All-Big 12 selections. Plus, we’re talking about a 12-0 team with the National Coach of the Year. That has to earn some sort of benefit of the doubt.

15. Oregon State

Don’t sleep on Jonathan Smith. You could make a strong case that he was the best hire of the post-2017 cycle. All he did last year was lead the Beavers to their best season since the Chad Johnson era. And that squad returned almost that entire offensive line to block for Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei. With some lowered expectations and perhaps a better scheme fit, he could be the difference in Oregon State repeating 10-win seasons for the first time in program history.

14. Oregon

Bo Nix will be playing college football until the aliens get us. Book it. He’s back after an exceptional season. Go figure that he’ll have yet another new offensive coordinator after Kenny Dillingham’s departure for the Arizona State gig. Dan Lanning’s in-game decisions might leave something to be desired at this stage of his career, but he’s still an elite defensive mind who should find options after losing a trio of studs to the NFL Draft. He also recruited extremely well in the transfer portal (keep an eye on South Carolina transfer Jordan Burch). The Ducks have a path in the incredibly deep Pac-12 race.

13. Clemson

I don’t believe that Clemson was 1 of the 10 best teams in the country last year. The Tigers got blown out by the 2 best teams on their schedule and lost at home to South Carolina to close the regular season. Cade Klubnik might be the real deal, but that’s still an unknown. What we do know is that Dabo Swinney made the aggressive, pivotal move of landing Broyles Award winner Garrett Riley from TCU. We also know that Clemson’s defense wasn’t a total liability in the first year of the post-Brent Venables era, and now it returns 75% of last year’s production with arguably the top group of linebackers in America. A slow start could await with the new offensive transition, but that defense should do the heavy lifting early.

12. Tennessee

Fresh off the program’s best season in 19 years, yes, expectations should be high. Josh Heupel does nothing but crank out top-8 offenses, and that defense is loaded with veteran upperclassmen. So why not a top-10 ranking? As talented as Joe Milton is, we still need to see him show that he can be the guy on a weekly basis. Assuming that Tennessee will pick up right where it left off after losing Hendon Hooker (best QB since Peyton Manning), Jalin Hyatt (Biletnikoff Award winner) and Darnell Wright (top-10 overall pick in NFL Draft) is ambitious. And Tim Banks’ defense might have a lot of experience, but it needs to be more consistent to be considered a true backbone for a Playoff-caliber team. Still, though. Heupel has things rolling heading into Year 3.

11. Notre Dame

Marcus Freeman made the correct, aggressive move to go out and get Sam Hartman. The Irish should be better off at the game’s most important position. That was huge. But it’s still a new-look offense with Tommy Rees’ departure to Alabama. Michael Mayer is also gone (NFL), as is the productive tailback Logan Diggs (LSU). There’s no guarantee that Hartman, who played in a unique offensive system at Wake Forest, will thrive from the jump. But you trust a Freeman-coached defense, which figured things out during last year’s 9-win season.

10. USC

Why don’t I have USC closer to the top 5 with the Heisman Trophy winner back from an 11-win team that ranks No. 14 in percentage of returning production? Show me that Lincoln Riley can coach a physical team that can show a defensive pulse in a significant game. He ran it back with Alex Grinch, who is somehow entering Year 5 as Riley’s defensive coordinator (3 at Oklahoma, 2 at USC). It’s great that USC added the promising Bear Alexander from Georgia, and second-team All-Big 12 linebacker Mason Cobb will help. But in order for Riley to get the benefit of the doubt with a preseason top-5 ranking, we need to see more than just a high-powered offense with elite quarterback play.

9. Washington

If there’s a team that could be the 2023 version of TCU, Washington is it. Kalen DeBoer’s squad is old, and in a good way. The Huskies didn’t have a single player drafted from an an 11-win team that closed the season on a 7-game winning streak. Granted, part of why they didn’t have a player drafted was because guys like Michael Penix Jr. and Rome Odunze ran it back for another season. Washington is No. 22 in FBS in percentage of returning production and it maintained its coordinators after Alabama reportedly went after OC Ryan Grubb. The defensive consistency has to improve, but returning 7 starters there should help. Washington has Playoff-level upside.

8. Utah

If Utah’s gauntlet of a schedule is factoring into your preseason ranking, you’re doing this wrong. This is about who a team is if it steps on the field tomorrow. Last I checked, the Utes are the 2-time defending Pac-12 champs who beat USC twice last season. Cam Rising is back (he’s working his way back from a torn ACL, but he’s expected to be ready for the start of the season), as is nearly that entire offense outside of prolific first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid, but Brant Kuithe is just as reliable. The Utes haven’t lost at home since the 2020 opener, but they haven’t lost at home at a game with fans in attendance since September 2018. Kyle Whittingham is an elite coach, and while his offense might lack explosiveness, Utah has one of the highest floors in America.

7. Penn State

If Drew Allar is everything he’s cracked up to be, yes, Penn State can win the Big Ten. Alongside arguably the best running back room in America, James Franklin has an offense that should light up scoreboards in a variety of ways. Last year’s Rose Bowl-winning squad also returns 75% of last year’s defensive production from a group that ranked No. 9 in scoring and No. 5 in yards/play allowed. Even sans lockdown corner Joey Porter Jr., there’s reason to believe that the Lions could take another step on that side of the ball under Manny Diaz. The question is if that next step will yield a long overdue victory against Ohio State.

6. LSU

The Tigers check so many of the boxes that you look for in a Playoff contender. Elite head coach? Yep. Proven starting quarterback? Check. Rock solid in the trenches? You bet. Potential All-Americans on both sides of the ball? Absolutely. LSU has fewer questions to answer than Alabama. There’s no denying that. But let’s not totally look past the fact that LSU was a 4-loss team that got smashed by a 5-win A&M squad in the regular-season finale. Putting the Tigers in the top 4 to start would be overlooking that. But suggesting that they could finish there is by no means a stretch.

5. Florida State

The “ultimate good vibes team” of the 2023 offseason is coming off a 10-win season with a newly-extended head coach and a roster that ranks No. 1 in American in percentage of returning production. Jordan Travis took that next step over the course of 2022, which is why he’s a preseason Heisman contender. He has a bevy of returning and new weapons to work with, including South Carolina transfer Jaheim Bell. Even though that 6-game winning streak didn’t feature an opponent that won more than 7 games, it’s hard not to be intrigued by Mike Norvell’s deep, talented roster. The question for the Noles is if they can finally get over the Clemson hurdle, which they have yet to do since Dabo Swinney’s squad took off in 2015.

4. Alabama

Here’s the thing: You want me to say that Alabama doesn’t deserve to start in the top 5. I’d rather give the Tide the benefit of the doubt after finishing in the AP Top 5 in 10 of the past 12 seasons, including last year. Yes, we have questions about the quarterback situation, and it’s fair to wonder if 2 new coordinators will be upgrades for an Alabama team that wasn’t exactly invincible last year. Of the Tide’s 9 Power 5 games in the regular season, 6 were 1-score games in the 4th quarter. But at the same time, we’re talking about a roster that’ll likely rank in the top 2 in the 247sports talent composite rankings, and the G.O.A.T. is still on those sidelines. The dynasty ain’t dead yet.

3. Ohio State

Yes, I believe Ohio State would have rolled TCU in the title game. No, that doesn’t matter a ton if you can’t hold a 4th-quarter lead in the semifinals. So what does that mean for this year’s squad? I wouldn’t worry so much about the quarterback transition because when was the last time Ohio State had a liability at that spot? The George Bush administration? That new starting quarterback will benefit from throwing to the best receiver room in America with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. And as frustrating as the Michigan game and Georgia endings were, Jim Knowles was still an upgrade at defensive coordinator in 2022. With Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau back, the Buckeyes should have some game-wreckers in the trenches. That group ranks No. 20 in returning defensive production. Even if you aren’t sold on Ryan Day winning a bunch of titles, you should still be sold on his team starting in the top 4.

2. Michigan

I debated this for awhile because if you rolled out Michigan against Alabama for a game that’s played tomorrow, I’d have a tough time picking against the Tide. We probably don’t talk enough about how in the past 6 years, Michigan’s lone victory against a non-Big Ten Power 5 team that went to a bowl game was that 2019 beatdown of Notre Dame. It went 1-6 in those games. But at the same time, Michigan is a team riding consecutive Ohio State beatdowns, consecutive Big Ten titles and consecutive Playoff berths. On top of that, Jim Harbaugh’s squad ranks No. 5 in percentage of returning production. TCU loss aside, that’s hard to ignore. This is supposed to be Michigan’s most complete team yet with Blake Corum and JJ McCarthy back behind 3 returning starters on the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line. If not now, when will Michigan reach a title game?

1. Georgia

Ask all the questions you want. Can Carson Beck be as clutch as Stetson Bennett IV? Will Mike Bobo pick up where Todd Monken left off? Will a game-wrecker emerge in a post-Jalen Carter world? Those questions are all fair. You know what’s not fair? Pretending the Dawgs shouldn’t have a preseason No. 1 ranking after becoming the first team to repeat in the Playoff era. Kirby Smart had 15 players selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, and all he did was go 15-0 with a 65-7 win in a title game. There’s “unbelievable” and then there’s whatever that is. The Dawgs’ preseason ranking has nothing to do with their schedule. It has everything to do with the fact that they’re on top of the sport in a way that nobody has been during the Playoff era.