Air superiority: Which team controls the pass in the Game of the Century?

Even a smash-mouth game like Alabama-LSU is likely to come down to the passing game.

Much of the focus in the run-up to Saturday night’s matchup between the two top-5 opponents in Tuscaloosa will undoubtedly focus on the ground game – specifically, how will Leonard Fournette and Derrick Henry make any hay at all against the unmoving fronts of their opposing defenses?

The answer is likely to be that they probably won’t – both Alabama and LSU have defenses specifically designed to swallow up the other team’s run game, particularly when those run games are straight-ahead attacks like the ones they will encounter at Bryant-Denny.

Both teams, then, must be willing to take some chances in the passing game, which means asking shaky quarterbacks to take some risks against talented secondaries.

Somewhat surprisingly, neither team is posting particularly strong numbers in pass defense, at least relative to the rest of the country. Alabama currently ranks 38th in the nation among pass defenses, allowing 197 yards per game; LSU is even lower, at 222 yards per game (65th).

This is true in spite of the opponents. Alabama has already faced the first-, third- and fourth-best passing offenses in the league (Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Arkansas), while LSU has faced the second-best (Mississippi State) and the sixth-best (Florida). To be fair, one of LSU’s non-conference opponents (Western Kentucky) currently boasts the nation’s fifth-best passing attack, and LSU has spent most of the season well ahead of its opponents – meaning they were forced to throw in an effort to get back into the game, often against reserve defenders inserted when the outcome was well in hand.

Where Alabama has distinguished itself – aside from the mere yards per game – has been in the turnover department.  Alabama ranks second in the nation in defensive TDs, with four interceptions run back for touchdowns (and another on a punt return by defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick). Three of those defensive touchdowns came against Texas A&M’s Kyle Allen, who essentially went into the proverbial tank after that particular game (Allen is currently on A&M’s bench).

Saturday’s game presents an interesting challenge for both teams, if only because the nature of the game will lend itself to personnel that is not the norm. Both teams spend most of their time attempting to defend spread attacks with multiple receivers and formations that require lighter personnel that can cover greater distance.  Alabama, in particular, prefers a six-DB look that allows it to employ former cornerbacks Eddie Jackson and Geno Mathias-Smith as safeties while relying on their front to control the ground game.

That will not be possible against LSU. Both teams will almost certainly spend most of the game in “base” personnel, with heavier linebackers and defensive linemen in the game in an effort to limit the earth-destroying ground games. That puts additional pressure on the secondary units, who simply cannot allow themselves to get caught staring into the backfield or they will find a receiver streaking toward the end zone behind them).

The other factor is pass rush. Even the best defenders can hardly be counted on to cover SEC-caliber receivers for more than a few seconds. Alabama currently ranks sixth in the nation in team sacks, averaging more than 3 per game.  LSU is 33rd, with 2.5 sacks per game.

Ultimately, the game shapes up like a heavyweight battle between two fighters whose styles are mirror images of one another. Which can only mean things come down to someone making a mistake.

We shall see.

Will Heath

Will Heath is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers SEC football.