ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has updated its rankings following Week 1 of the college football season. The projection-based rankings won’t go over well with fans.

Despite a 10-point home loss to Texas, the FPI is keeping Alabama at No. 1. Here’s the full top 25:

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Georgia
  4. USC
  5. Florida State
  6. Texas
  7. Penn State
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Michigan
  11. Oregon
  12. Ole Miss
  13. LSU
  14. Washington
  15. Miami
  16. Utah
  17. Oregon State
  18. Syracuse
  19. Texas A&M
  20. Clemson
  21. Kansas State
  22. Tennessee
  23. UCF
  24. Cincinnati
  25. Auburn

It’s worth noting that the FPI’s resume rankings slot Texas with the No. 1 strength of record. Oregon State has the No. 1 overall efficiency after 2 games.

Ranking Alabama No. 1 certainly does not make sense to anyone who watched college football in Week 2. The Crimson Tide not moving down appears to be due to ESPN’s FPI rankings model.

ESPN defines the FPI as a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. An ESPN blog post from 2016 notes that statistics from the previous season heavily impact the preseason numbers, with their weight gradually declining throughout the season:

In the preseason, these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure (more on the preseason component below). That information allows FPI to make predictions (and make determinations on the strength of a team’s opponents) beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses. It is important to note that prior seasons’ information never completely disappears, because it has been proved to help with prediction accuracy even at the end of a season.

ESPN likens the FPI to the numbers Las Vegas handicappers use to set betting lines. Alabama was a Vegas/FPI darling in 2022, even after losing 2 games on the field. Nick Saban notably pointed to Alabama being hypothetically favored over other College Football Playoff teams as a reason he felt the Crimson Tide should have made the final 4 last year.

After Saturday, though, the smartest folks in the desert presumably no longer have Alabama as college football’s top team. It will be interesting to see when the FPI formula catches up.