Betting Stuff: Best bets, schedule for Championship Sunday at the SEC Tournament

It’s Championship Sunday at the SEC Tournament. No. 4 seed Auburn will face No. 6 seed Florida in the SEC championship game in Nashville.

The quarterfinals knocked out 3 of the top 4 seeds in the field, with Auburn the only team to survive after receiving a double-bye. The Gators played their way to the title match from the second round.

Here’s a look at the schedule for Sunday, followed by 3 betting picks:

(Time in Eastern; spread and total via FanDuel)

Game 13: 1 p.m. – No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 6 Florida (ESPN)

Auburn (26-7, 13-5 SEC) did exactly what it was supposed to do in order to reach the title game. The Tigers mauled South Carolina in their quarterfinal matchup, winning 86-55. In the semifinal round against Mississippi State — the team that knocked top-seeded Tennessee from the field, Auburn faced its toughest test of the season and still emerged with a win. The Tigers trailed in the first half, turned it over 15 times, had to withstand a second-half rally from MSU, and ultimately saw their run of victories by double-digits end, but a win is a win. And 5 different Auburn players scored at least 10 points to fuel the victory.

Florida (24-10, 11-7) beat Georgia in its opening game at the SEC Tournament, fueled by Walter Clayton Jr., who scored 15 of his 22 points in the second half. A day later, Clayton scored 23 points to lift the Gators over 3-seed Alabama in the quarters. On Saturday, Clayton scored 16 in the 95-90 win over Texas A&M, but Denzel Aberdeen played the role of hero off the bench with 20 points on 4-of-5 shooting from 3. It was a career-high performance from Aberdeen, who had played a total of 12 minutes in the tournament before Saturday’s semis.

Spread: Auburn -5.5

Total: 157.5

1 pick against the spread

Florida +5.5 (BetMGM)

Until Saturday, every single one of Auburn’s wins this season had come by at least 10 points. The Tigers are 20-13 against the spread on the season. And they’ve been fueled by one of the best defenses in college basketball. The Tigers rank fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. They force teams to play inside the 3-point line, where they have the best 2-point defense in basketball and the best block rate to boot.

But this Auburn team also hasn’t faced a top-30 offense (per KenPom) since Feb. 28 — an 8-point loss to Tennessee. The last 3 top-30 offenses have all beaten Auburn. Florida has the 13th-ranked offense, per KenPom. And it’s a multi-faceted attack. When these 2 met on Feb. 10, Walter Clayton Jr., Zyon Pullin, and Riley Kugel combined to score 61 points in an 81-65 Florida win.

The Gators have averaged 94 points a game in the conference tournament thus far. Clayton has been playing at a high level and Pullin has been a knockdown shooter. Florida’s guards could be the difference in this matchup.

2 player props

Florida G Walter Clayton Jr. over 16.5 points (DraftKings)

The Gators have been powered by Clayton’s scoring to this point in the SEC Tournament and that shouldn’t change in the championship bout. Clayton is averaging 20.3 points per game in the conference tourney and putting in 19.7 points per game in his last 10 appearances.

Auburn F Johni Broome under 0.5 steals (DraftKings)

Broome has 4 steals in his last 10 games and only 1 in his last 5. Since conference play began, Florida has ranked top-4 in the SEC in turnover percentage. DraftKings has this prop priced at +115.