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For the second time in 4 games, Georgia will be involved in a matchup between 2 teams ranked inside the AP Top 5. Just like last time, Georgia has to go on the road.
It will be looking for a different ending.
No. 1 Texas (6-0) welcomes No. 5 Georgia (5-1) to Austin on Saturday for a seismic, SEC Championship-altering collision. For Texas, legitimization comes with a victory. After routing Michigan and dominating Oklahoma, a win over Georgia would cement the Longhorns as the favorites this season. For Georgia, a trip to Atlanta might very well be on the line. A second SEC loss before the calendar hits November would be tough to overcome.
Kickoff from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. on ABC.
Here are a few storylines to consider before betting on the action.
Texas -4 (via DraftKings) | Total: 56 points | Moneyline: Texas -170, Georgia +142
*****
Texas ain’t played no one yet
Texas has looked like a complete team through its first 6 games. They’ve lined teams up and just absolutely blasted one after the other. The Longhorns beat the 3 non-power teams they played by a combined 159-10. They beat the 3 power teams they played a combined 100-28. Texas is an unsurprising No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric with the sixth-strongest strength of record. When you can only play who’s in front of you, to a degree, you get judged by how you dominate. Texas has been outright dominant.
But I’d argue we just don’t know what we don’t know about Texas through half of its season.
Here’s where the Longhorns’ opponents sit in the latest SP+ ratings:
- Colorado State — 97th (92nd offense)
- Michigan — 21st (63rd offense)
- UTSA — 98th (97th offense)
- UL Monroe — 109th (123rd offense)
- Mississippi State –76th (61st offense)
- Oklahoma — 26th (59th offense)
The 2 marquee wins are over Michigan and Oklahoma, 2 teams who are much worse on the field than they will appear on paper. Michigan has a 1-trick offense and an average defense. Oklahoma, for a litany of reasons, might have one of the worst offenses in the country at this point in the year.
The Texas pass defense gets its first test
As we evaluate Texas through 6 games, one of the things that jumps off the page is the pass defense. Steve Sarkisian set out to overhaul that unit in the offseason, and most of those moves have yielded positive results. Safeties Michael Taaffe and Andrew Mukuba have been strong. Jahdae Barron has given up 14 receptions, but those 14 receptions have totaled just 78 yards. The overall speed of this unit really shines on tape, and Texas has just swarmed unsuspecting offenses with it. Texas is the only defense in the country that hasn’t yet given up multiple passing touchdowns and it leads the nation in passing success rate allowed.
It’s fair to say that Carson Beck will be the best quarterback this Longhorns team has faced by a significant margin. Georgia’s offense sits sixth nationally in the latest SP+ ratings. Wide receiver Dillon Bell has started to emerge in recent weeks for the Dawgs, with touchdowns in 3 straight games. During that stretch, Bell has brought in 14 of his 21 targets (13 total targets through the first 3 games) for 200 yards. He made a couple of contested catches in the Alabama game, has stretched the field, and hasn’t dealt with the same drops issue that has plagued Arian Smith. That reads like an emerging go-to, which Beck has been desperate for.
How does Texas look when it is finally tested through the air by a competent quarterback? Are there more breakdowns against a crop of skill players that are just better than anything Texas has seen to this point? How do the Longhorns respond when the defense is suddenly more on its heels than it is used to, having to defend stretches of grass that haven’t been accessible to previous offenses?
That’s one of the more interesting questions in this matchup.
Georgia’s pass defense is off
Going the opposite direction, Georgia’s secondary has left plenty to be desired through the first 6 games of its season. Smael Mondon won’t play, which hurts. Linebackers Raylen Wilson and CJ Allen have been poor in coverage. Cornerback Daylen Everette has been picked on to great success. Julian Humphrey has consistently given up chunk plays. The Dawgs rank 75th nationally in EPA per dropback allowed.
Last Saturday, against a freshman quarterback making his second college start, Georgia gave up 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 3 passing scores, and 4 completions of at least 20 yards.
“The way we play defense, we don’t give up any short, intermediate passes,” Georgia head coach Kirby Smart said recently, per the Athens Banner-Herald. “We challenge people historically here, so if you’re going to hit balls on us, it’s usually shots, and if you miss those you’re in long yardage all day. If you hit those, then you’re explosive.”
Plenty of teams have been plenty explosive against the Georgia secondary. And Texas enters the Week 8 matchup ranked eighth nationally in EPA per dropback.
Texas has the best offensive line Georgia will face
This goes hand in hand with the pass defense; Georgia has no one to rely on as a “pin your ears back and rush the passer” option. Not a single Bulldog defender ranks in the top 20 among SEC defenders for quarterback pressures. Smart has talked about the talent drain in the secondary, but I actually think the defensive line is where it is showing the most.
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins leads the team in sacks, with just 3 in 6 games. And while the Bulldogs haven’t really had 1 player whose counting stats just jump off the page, they’ve always had a guy who scared the daylight out of opposing offensive coordinators. The obvious answer this season is Mykel Williams, but an ankle injury in the Clemson has game has really limited what he’s been able to do. He played just 11 snaps against Penn State and 6 against Auburn the week before.
Williams had 59 total quarterback pressures during his first 2 years with the Bulldogs. He has 5 at the halfway point of the 2024 season. And Georgia has sputtered without its top guy at full strength. The Dawgs only have 3 sacks in their last 3 games. They didn’t bring Jalen Milroe down once, and Smart hit Michael Van Buren more than the defense did.
Now, that group has to face arguably the best offensive line in the country. Texas has given up 6 sacks in 6 games. Ewers has been brought down only twice. Per PFF, he’s been pressured on 25 dropbacks all season. Texas runs it well enough (37th in rushing success rate) despite a backfield decimated by injury.
An Alabama redux?
Carson Beck has 9 turnover-worthy plays in 6 games. He’s been picked off 5 times, all of them since the Dawgs kicked off against Alabama. When Georgia has had to really lean on Beck’s arm, it has been careless with the football. He threw 50 times against the Crimson Tide and Alabama got to him. He threw it 48 times against Mississippi State and he threw a pair of consequential interceptions that kept the game close.
Beck had just 6 interceptions all last season. He had only 11 turnover-worthy plays all last season. He attempted more than 35 passes in a game only once, and it was arguably his weakest game of the year.
If I’m Texas, I want to turn this game into a high-possession affair with plenty of points. That kind of game — up and down, explosives for everyone, points all around — favors the Longhorns. If Georgia can turn this into a rock fight, advantage Bulldogs.
To that end, it’s worth mentioning that Steve Sarkisian is one of the best offensive script-writers in college football — if not the best. His early-game plans are dynamic and almost always effective.
On each of their first 3 drives through all 6 games this season, Texas has averaged 7.4 yards per play, averaged 3.1 points per possession, and punted only 4 times. Two of those came against Oklahoma on Saturday when Ewers was still shaking off the rust.
I wonder if Sarkisian doesn’t try to jump on Georgia early, similar to what Alabama did. Maybe there’s a look or 2 Sarkisian has been saving for just this game. Maybe Ewers, who is notoriously streaky as a deep ball passer, comes out hot. Maybe Sarkisian has something schemed up for freshman receiver Ryan Wingo, whose 22.8 yards per reception this season trails only Ryan Williams in the SEC.
5-1 vs. 1-5
In this column last week, I highlighted games between FBS teams that were 4-1 or better ATS against teams that were 1-4 or worse ATS. Specific attention was paid to BYU-Arizona as a matchup that probably didn’t have a large enough number given the way both teams had performed against the spread. BYU, which closed as a 2.5-point favorite at ESPN Bet, won by 22.
Texas is 5-1 against the spread this season. Georgia is 1-5.
The only spread Georgia has covered this season came in the opener. Since, Georgia has been 13 points worse on average than the point spread.
In the Longhorns’ 5 ATS wins this season, they’ve beaten the number by an average of 12.7 points.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
