Bubble watch: 10 teams SEC needs to lose to help their NCAA Tournament bids
Selection Sunday is this weekend, and it’s always one of the most exciting days of the college basketball calendar.
For teams that are solidly in the field of 68, it’s fun to see who their first-round opponents will be. For bubble teams, it’s more nerve-wracking, but for those lucky teams that get in, it turns into an incredible experience.
This year, the SEC has a few teams on the bubble, according to ESPN bracketology expert Joe Lunardi. As of Tuesday, he had eight teams in the field, with Alabama dangling precariously as the final team in his “last four in” rankings.
Mississippi State is on the outside looking in but could work its way back into the March Madness mix with a couple of wins in the SEC Tournament this week. Meanwhile, like Alabama, teams like Mizzou, Texas A&M and Arkansas would be wise to avoid an embarrassing early loss in St. Louis.
So, while the SEC bubble teams will be trying to win their own games to strengthen their resumes, they’ll be rooting for some other power conference squads to lose early in their conference tourneys.
Here’s a look at 10 teams the SEC bubble squads will be rooting against this week:
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish barely beat Pitt on Tuesday, but that’s not much of an accomplishment at this point, as the Panthers finished 0-19 in ACC play. However, Notre Dame still has some work to do if it wants to keep its season alive beyond the ACC tourney.
The Irish face Virginia Tech on Wednesday, and a win would be a big for their March Madness hopes. Therefore, the SEC bubble teams will be rooting for the Hokies in that contest.
Syracuse
Much like Notre Dame, Syracuse picked up a narrow victory in the first round of the ACC Tournament on Tuesday, knocking off lowly Wake Forest. One more win will likely seal a March Madness berth for the Orange, who are among Lunardi’s next four out.
Fortunately for the SEC bubble teams, that next game is against North Carolina. While the Tar Heels may be down of late, they are still the defending champions.
Kansas State
The Wildcats are the No. 4 seed in the Big 12 Tournament, so they have a bye into the quarterfinals. However, even though they are ranked ahead of their first-round opponent, No. 5 seed TCU, the Horned Frogs are solidly in the tourney field.
Meanwhile, Lunardi has the Wildcats as one of the last four byes in the tournament, so an embarrassing first-round loss in the Big 12 tourney, coupled with some SEC bubble teams winning a game or two, will make things interesting on Selection Sunday.
Texas
The Longhorns are 18-13 and have two wins against Oklahoma on their resume, but beating the Sooners isn’t as impressive as it looked at the time. Lunardi has Texas as one of his last four teams in, so if Shaka Smart’s squad falls to Iowa State on Wednesday night, it won’t be good news for Texas fans.
Baylor
Baylor is the No. 6 seed in the Big 12 Tournament, and the Bears have struggled down the stretch, losing three of their last four regular-season games.
As the No. 6 seed, they have a quarterfinal matchup against the No. 3 seed, which means West Virginia in this case. The Bears are 0-2 against the Mountaineers this year, and a third loss to Bob Huggins’ crew won’t leave the Selection Committee with a good feeling about Baylor on Sunday.
UCLA and USC
The Pac-12 is interesting. In Lunardi’s projections, only four teams are in the mix for a tourney berth. The conference’s No. 1 seed, Arizona, is in the mix, as are No. 2 seed USC, No. 4 seed UCLA and … No. 9 seed Arizona State.
That leaves No. 3 seed Utah on the outside looking in and every seed from No. 5 to No. 8 out of the picture. And, as UCLA and USC are among Lunardi’s last four in, losses in the first round won’t help either stay in the field of 68.
Arizona State
The Sun Devils started the year off hot and were actually the last undefeated team in college basketball, rising all the way to the top five in the AP Poll. However, since then, it’s been a free fall, as ASU finished the year as the No. 9 seed in the Pac-12 and sports a mediocre 20-10 record.
Lunardi has them as a No. 11 seed right now, but a loss against Colorado on Wednesday night might let Alabama or someone else slip ahead of them in the rankings.
Providence
The Friars are among Lunardi’s last four byes, but they are in a precarious position as the Big East’s No. 5 seed entering the tournament. That means their first game is against No. 4 seed Creighton.
Creighton is likely in the tournament even if it loses to Providence, but the Friars don’t have that margin for error. A loss on Thursday would open the door for some other teams to move into the NCAA tourney picture.
Tulsa
Frank Haith might have torpedoed the Missouri program on his way out of Columbia, but he has the Golden Hurricane on the verge of an NCAA Tournament berth.
Tulsa likely has to win the AAC Tournament to get into the tourney field, but the Hurricane have played Cincinnati and Wichita State in close games this year, despite losing. Anything can happen in the postseason, though, so the sooner Tulsa is out of the AAC tourney, the better for the SEC squads on the bubble.