Comparing preseason AP Poll to public projection models: Who is underrated, overrated to start 2024?
The Associated Press released its preseason top 25 poll on Monday afternoon, with Georgia claiming the top overall spot.
Although the AP Top 25 is a college football institution, it has not always proven to be the most reliable prognosticator — nor does it claim to be.
If you’re going to be betting on college football this fall, it can be useful to have a grasp of who is overrated and who is underrated by the consensus — that’s often where edges in the market can be found.
Here’s a comparison between the AP Top 25 and 4 public projection models for the 2024 season:
| Team | AP Poll | Model Average | SP+ | FPI | KFord | BetaRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Oregon | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Texas | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
| Alabama | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Ole Miss | 6 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 9 | 18 |
| Notre Dame | 7 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Penn State | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Michigan | 9 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| Florida State | 10 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 17 |
| Missouri | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| Utah | 12 | 23 | 18 | 27 | 18 | 28 |
| LSU | 13 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 4 |
| Clemson | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 16 |
| Tennessee | 15 | 15 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 20 |
| Oklahoma | 16 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| Oklahoma State | 17 | 29 | 20 | 26 | 24 | 47 |
| Kansas State | 18 | 21 | 17 | 22 | 19 | 25 |
| Miami | 19 | 20 | 19 | 23 | 17 | 19 |
| Texas A&M | 20 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 9 |
| Arizona | 21 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 22 |
| Kansas | 22 | 31 | 37 | 17 | 26 | 45 |
| USC | 23 | 25 | 21 | 18 | 20 | 40 |
| NC State | 24 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 26 |
| Iowa | 25 | 29 | 22 | 37 | 29 | 29 |
| Louisville | 26 | 24 | 28 | 21 | 21 | 24 |
| Virginia Tech | 27 | 34 | 32 | 50 | 39 | 15 |
| SMU | 29 | 24 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 23 |
| Iowa State | 30 | 31 | 30 | 47 | 34 | 13 |
| Kentucky | 40 | 29 | 25 | 34 | 31 | 27 |
| Auburn | 41 | 22 | 31 | 19 | 23 | 14 |
| Florida | N/A | 24 | 33 | 20 | 22 | 21 |
The 4 models used in this comparison are ESPN’s SP+, ESPN’s Football Power Index, KFord Ratings and Beta Rank.
Here’s a breakdown of the teams found to be most overrated and most underrated relative to the AP Top 25:
4 teams overrated by the AP Poll
Oklahoma State
It shouldn’t be too surprising that models are lower on Oklahoma State than media voters. Writers see a team that brings back a ton of production off of a team that won 10 games in a tough Big 12 last season. Computer models view last year’s Oklahoma State team as a squad that majorly overachieved thanks to luck and didn’t significantly upgrade its talent profile this offseason.
ESPN BET has Oklahoma State’s regular-season win total posted at 8.5, but the Cowboys may end up struggling more than many expect in 2024.
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Utah
Utah is an interesting case study for why the human element can still be crucial in building out accurate power ratings. Cam Rising’s injury situation is a unique set of circumstances that AP voters are presumably able to interpret better than most computer projections. While the models may see Utah as a team that lost all of its quarterback production from last season, AP Poll voters understand that the Utes get back one of the most experienced QBs in the country this fall and should be in good shape to make a run at the Big 12 title.
Kansas
Similarly to Utah, Kansas is a team that will benefit from its 2022 starting quarterback returning to action this season. Jason Bean saw the majority of KU’s quarterback reps in 2023 due to an injury to starter Jalon Daniels, who was having a career-best season before he went down. Daniels has a chance to be one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country if he can stay healthy, which goes a long way toward justifying the Jayhawks’ top-25 ranking in the AP Poll.
Ole Miss
Ole Miss is really the only obvious major discrepancy in the top 10 between the AP Poll and the aggregate ranking from the 4 computer models listed above. The Rebels had a flashy offseason after winning 11 games a year ago, but they also lost quite a bit of production off of last year’s defense. Ole Miss was ranked as low as No. 18 in the country by one of the models.
4 teams underrated by the AP Poll
Florida
Florida is the only team ranked inside the top 25 by any of the listed computer models to not receive at least one vote in the AP Poll. The public seems to have a very poor opinion of Billy Napier’s Gators after back-to-back campaigns of going 3-5 in SEC play. Florida’s schedule has also been widely-acknowledged as perhaps the toughest in the country, adding to the air of pessimism in Gainesville.
But from a pure power ratings perspective, Florida is a near-consensus top-25 team. That’s certainly worth noting as Florida is a 2.5-point home underdog against Miami in Week 1, per DraftKings.
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Auburn
Auburn just barely made it into the AP Top 25’s “receiving votes” section, as the Tigers accrued 2 points in the preseason poll — good enough for 41st-place overall. And yet, 3 of the 4 models have Auburn projected as a top-25 team entering the year. Auburn made a bowl game in Year 1 of the Hugh Freeze era and then signed a top-10 recruiting class that features multiple 5-star prospects this past offseason, so there are some reasons to be excited about the path the Tigers are on. One model has Auburn ranked as high as No. 14 in the country entering the year.
Kentucky
Kentucky slotted in just 1 spot above Auburn in the “receiving votes” category of the preseason AP Top 25. None of the models have Kentucky projected as a top-20 team, but all 4 have the Wildcats in the top 35. Brock Vandagriff is somewhat of an unknown commodity at quarterback, but he’s a former 5-star prospect who could certainly breakout now that he has a starting job.
Texas A&M
Texas A&M is an interesting case. The Aggies are ranked in the AP top 25 as they begin the Mike Elko era, but this group of computer models suggest voters are still too low on them. Texas A&M is ranked between 9th and 16th in all 4 models — a relatively tight range for a program with a lot of coaching and roster turnover. A big wildcard for Texas A&M will be quarterback health, as Conner Weigman missed has struggled with injuries in the past.
Despite being ranked 13 spots lower in the AP Poll, Texas A&M is currently a 1.5-point home favorite (per FanDuel) against Notre Dame in Week 1.
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You are comparing rankings to power ratings. Totally different animals. SEC and BIG 10 teams will do better in power ratings, but worse in rankings due to strength of schedule.
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exactly aggie retired. Florida will likely have a better team than their results will indicate. That schedule man, that schedule…
“Auburn”
AU should not be ranked at all. Period. Rankings shouldn’t come out until at least 6 games have been played. Preseason rankings are a complete joke in general.
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Yep, it’s sad.
Until we see some real football, it’s all meaningless. Listening to reports out of fall camp, you’d be led to believe all 16 SEC teams are going 12-0. Well, maybe 15.
Agreed.
Can’t stand sports betting/gambling. It is ruining sports. I certainly wish the sports bettors were shipped off to an isolated island where they can bet on themselves who will be the last exiled bettor standing.
Same here. I have to admit this SDS site is the only gambling site I visit, but that’s only because about once or twice per week they sneak in some decent football content.
In the real world, Notre Dame never belongs in the top 20.
I don’t like ND but they were 11th in composite talent last year and should be similar this year. They belong in the top 20 but they are typically over rated especially entering each season. Some of the hatred could be mitigated if they were to join a conference or if they continue to stay independent then there shouldn’t be playoff carve outs for them.
The world is yet to hit you, which explains your comment.