We’re halfway home, folks.

The 2023 regular season is officially at its midway point, and if that doesn’t terrify you, I’m not sure what does.

As Week 7 approaches, we have 2 division races with clear and obvious favorites (Georgia and Alabama). But there’s still plenty left to be figured out. Will anyone hand those teams a loss before Atlanta? Will anyone get fired? Who will be the team nobody wants to play in the latter half of 2023?

I don’t have definitive answers to those questions yet.

I do, however, have some early impressions of the 6 SEC matchups in Week 7:

Georgia at Vanderbilt — Let’s see Brock Vandagriff spin it a bit

Sorry, Vanderbilt. My thoughts on this matchup are directly related to Georgia’s backup quarterback and the type of reps he’ll get. Keep a matchup vs. UGA within 27 points for the first time in 7 years, then we’ll talk. We got to see some actual passing reps from Vandagriff in the Kentucky blowout, and it looked promising. He had his first career touchdown pass against FBS competition after he got to essentially lead a normal drive and not just enter the game to hand the ball off. Good. Five-star talent or not, a guy with 20 career pass attempts needs more reps.

I believe that Kirby Smart learned a lot from his 2018 Justin Fields experience. That is, you need to have your talented QB2 enter the game and actually throw passes. Smart did that last year with Carson Beck when he appeared in half of UGA’s games and he finished with 35 pass attempts. Maybe Vandagriff gets a half against Vanderbilt and we see him prepare with an actual script coming out of the break.

Arkansas at Alabama — Why Sam Pittman’s overall record looms

Unless Pittman leads Arkansas to its first win ever against Nick Saban at Alabama — and does so as a 3-score underdog — his overall record in Fayetteville will drop below .500. Why is that significant? If you recall, Pittman’s original contract and his extension have a performance-based buyout. If Pittman’s overall record is at or above .500, he gets 75% of the remaining money on his contract. If he’s below .500, that number drops to 50% of the remaining contract that he’d be owed.

That’s potentially a big storyline moving forward. Per the terms of his incentive-heavy extension that was signed after the 2021 season, Pittman’s 7-win season in 2022 meant that he got an extra year added and a $250,000 bump to $5.25 million annually through the 2027 season. That means after the 2023 season, he has $21 million remaining on his deal. If his total record at Arkansas is below .500 at season’s end, his buyout is a very affordable $10.5 million. He would have to finish 4-8 or worse this season to fall below .500. If Pittman’s Arkansas record is at or above .500 at season’s end, his buyout would be $15.75 million. That’s not going to be lost on the Razorback faithful if Alabama bludgeons the Hogs on Saturday.

Florida at South Carolina — Can the Gators stop being horrendous away from The Swamp?

There aren’t a lot of kind words to describe the Gators’ woes away from The Swamp under Billy Napier. “Disappointing” seems too friendly. “Underwhelming” seems too forgiving. Here’s the breakdown of Florida’s performances away from The Swamp in the Napier era, which includes the Georgia game in Jacksonville and last year’s bowl loss in Las Vegas:

  • Record: 1-7
  • Wins vs. bowl-eligible teams: 0
  • Points/game: 23
  • Points allowed/game: 33.4
  • Rushing yards/game allowed: 200
  • Yards/play allowed: 6.3
  • 3rd down offensive conversion percentage: 34.5%
  • Penalties/game: 9.3
  • Penalty yards/game: 65.5
  • Double-digit losses: 4
  • 25-point games: 3
  • Games allowing 30-plus: 6

Consider this. Florida’s last road win in front of actual fans (that excludes 2020) against a team that earned bowl eligibility was 2019 at Kentucky, which was when Feleipe Franks went down with a season-ending injury. That’s not ideal. None of that will fly if Florida hopes to pick up a win at South Carolina, who might be flawed, but has still been a force at home. In the Shane Beamer era, the Gamecocks are 12-4 at Williams-Brice Stadium. This will take a much cleaner version of the road Gators than practically any that we’ve seen throughout the last few seasons.

Texas A&M at Tennessee — A&M’s O-line could have its hands full again

One of the most disappointing A&M developments against Alabama was watching that experienced offensive line struggle to protect Max Johnson. At home, in that atmosphere, that was a major letdown. Now on the road against a Tennessee front that’s every bit as good as Alabama’s, A&M’s offensive line could once again have issues keeping Johnson clean. James Pearce Jr., Tyler Baron and Aaron Beasley have a combined 20 tackles for loss in 5 games this season. Plus, Tennessee had a bye week to prep for Saturday’s showdown. One would think fresh legs and exotic blitzes will be a mainstay for the Vols.

This is the type of week in which A&M could really use a favorable Group of 5 matchup at home. Turning around and having to come up with answers against Tennessee’s defensive front at Neyland Stadium isn’t going to do that group any favors.

Auburn at LSU — Auburn’s passing offense should be just what the doctor ordered for LSU … right?

My guy Will Ogburn, an LSU fan, said that the Tigers are probably the No. 3 team in the SEC behind Georgia and Alabama. Who sits at No. 4 in the SEC, according to Will? Whoever plays LSU. Arkansas, Ole Miss and most recently Mizzou all showed us that. Auburn, even coming off a bye week, might finally put an end to LSU’s defensive woes in the Tiger Bowl. Or maybe it won’t. How fitting it is that Auburn’s passing offense and LSU’s passing defense both rank No. 121 in FBS. It’s the old “something’s gotta give” matchup.

To be fair, LSU at least had 1 day against Power 5 competition in which we saw promise defending the pass. That was at Mississippi State. Auburn, meanwhile, is averaging 79 passing yards per game (and 4.0 yards/attempt) against Power 5 competition this season, which is easily dead last in Power 5. Auburn’s passing yards per game are just behind Army. That’s right. Including the end of last season, Auburn has 6 consecutive games vs. Power 5 competition without hitting 100 passing yards, which seems impossible in this era of the sport. Whoever looks more inept on Saturday will have lost any hope that it’ll turn things around on that side of the ball.

Mizzou at Kentucky — If not now, then maybe never for Devin Leary

I hate to put an ultimatum on a player, but it’s been a rough go so far for Leary at Kentucky. In 3 games vs. SEC competition, he’s averaging 5.4 yards/attempt with a 104.1 QB rating. How much of that is due to his rare surgery to fix his torn pec last season, we don’t know. Whatever the case, Leary’s SEC ranks in these key areas have been tough to stomach through Week 6 (these are overall numbers for 2023):

  • Yards/attempt: 10th
  • Passing yards: 11th
  • Passer rating: 12th
  • Completion %: 13th (last among qualified QBs)

Yuck. Leary has just looked off in the first half of the season against a mostly favorable schedule. But after Mark Stoops was pretty candid about Leary’s struggles missing targets at Georgia, he returns to Kroger Field to face a Mizzou pass defense that’s No. 96 in FBS in yards/allowed per game. The Tigers have an opposing QB rating of 144.2, which ranks No. 101 in FBS. If Leary can’t get it going in a matchup this favorable, it’s fair to have serious concerns that he’s about to be overwhelmed with an extremely daunting 5-game stretch to close the season.