Oklahoma, not Alabama, has the best chance to win the national championship, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

SEC champion Alabama was the opening line even-money favorite to win the national title with  Las Vegas oddsmakers. Oklahoma was the second choice at 9-4.

The Big 12 champion Sooners (11-1) are on a roll after beating Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State to finish the season. Oklahoma climbed into the top 4 after a surprising 24-17 loss to Texas, which finished 5-7.

Oklahoma, the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff, will play No. 1 Clemson in the semifinals at the Orange Bowl. The winner will play the winner of the No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State matchup in the Cotton Bowl for the national championship.

According to ESPN.com, the FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.