ESPN FPI's early prediction for Florida-Georgia game
In Week 9, the Associated Press Top 25 ranked Florida higher than Georgia (No. 7, No. 10). The Week 10 polls are not out yet, but with the Gators and Bulldogs both on bye weeks, a big switch between UF and UGA seems unlikely. While Dan Mullen’s squad may enter the game in Jacksonville as the higher-ranked team, ESPN’s Football Power Index is favoring Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs.
The post-Week 9 FPI is giving Georgia a 60.9 percent chance to win on Saturday. ESPN’s projected FPI outcomes come from simulations:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
In addition to projected outcomes, the FPI also ranks all 130 FBS teams. In the latest updated rankings, Georgia is No. 6 while Florida is No. 11. The metric has the Bulldogs at 23.5 points above average while the Gators check-in at plus 19.6. We shall see if the Las Vegas and offshore betting lines reflect a similar difference in points.
Georgia enters Saturday’s Cocktail Party with a two-game winning streak in the rivalry showdown on the river. UGA won last year’s game 36-17.