Will the SEC Championship Game be Alabama’s closest matchup of the season? Based on the SP+ projections, it will be.

On Wednesday, ESPN’s Bill Connelly shared this week’s SP+ predictions for every game. And according to those, Alabama will beat Florida, 37-27, to win the SEC championship. The Crimson Tide have won each of their first 10 games by at least 17 points, so this would be their toughest test yet if that turns out to be true.

Per ESPN, SP+ is a “tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that is intended to be predictive and forward-facing, measuring the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.

Although Florida is 8-2, it’s coming off an upset 37-34 home loss to LSU last week. So, it will be interesting to see whether the Gators can bounce back and give the Crimson Tide a close game, something that most of the SEC has failed to do in 2020.

Here are the SP+ score projections for all of this week’s SEC action:

Alabama 37, Florida 27
Texas A&M 33, Tennessee 20
Mississippi State 27, Missouri 26
Ole Miss 34, LSU 32