Nick Saban vs. Kirby Smart.

What a fitting way to close the book on this era of SEC football. Some might disagree with that. I, however, am fired up for Saban vs. Smart, Part VI.

(That’s the Roman numeral for 6. I looked it up just to be sure.)

Saban currently boasts a 4-1 advantage against his former assistant, but Smart currently boasts the longest winning streak in SEC history at 29 games. He also has a 1-game winning streak against Saban, and in case you haven’t heard, Smart is trying to lead the first 3-peat in college football since 1936 Minnesota.

It’s a strange high-stakes matchup in that perhaps unlike any before it, the ramifications aren’t so clearly defined. The only thing that’s an absolute certainty is that Georgia is in the Playoff if it beats Alabama in Saturday’s SEC Championship.

No, Alabama fans. I didn’t say the Tide are staying at home with a win against Georgia. It’s just not a stone-cold lock. I’ll get to that in a bit.

Let’s start with some final thoughts on Part VI of Saban vs. Smart:

1. Nick Saban in Atlanta has been the safest bet there is

Trivia question. Can you name the last quarterback to beat Alabama in Atlanta? Does anything come to mind?

Tim Tebow.

A 36-year-old man holds the last win against the Tide in Atlanta. Since that 2008 SEC Championship when Alabama lost to eventual champ Florida, Saban has won 16 consecutive games in the Georgia Dome/Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Twelve of those wins were by double digits. Eight were against top-10 teams. Seven were against top-5 teams.

Even for Alabama, that’s absurd. You could tell me that Saban is leading a Pop Warner team in Atlanta this weekend and I’d still have that thought in the back of my brain of “well, the guy just dominates in that city.” It’s true. Saban’s 2008 SEC Championship loss to Tebow and the Gators was his lone blemish in a conference title game at Alabama. Eight consecutive times since, Alabama went into Atlanta and came home with an SEC crown.

Obviously, none of those East foes was like this one. Not even 2009 Florida was as accomplished as 2023 Georgia. It’s not just the consecutive national titles. It’s the 45 victories in the past 46 games.

And who did that 1 loss come to again? Alabama in Atlanta.

2. How healthy is Georgia?

It’s a question worth asking after the Dawgs were banged up in the Georgia Tech game. Pass-catchers Ladd McConkey, RaRa Thomas and Brock Bowers were all held out of the regular-season finale. Smart said that Bowers has the best chance of playing as he works through that ankle injury post-tight rope surgery. McConkey and Thomas sound like true coin flips as of this writing.

Not having Bowers and McConkey would be significant for Carson Beck against that improved Alabama defense. Then again, both have essentially missed a month’s worth of games this season, and Beck has had to adjust to mid-game departures from both players.

Including guard Tate Ratledge, UGA had 4 offensive starters sidelined against Georgia Tech. How many they get back for the SEC Championship remains to be seen, based on Smart’s early diagnosis.

Top linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson is still, as Smart said “week to week” with a broken forearm that he suffered against Mizzou. CJ Allen has been excellent in his place, but we’re talking about a true freshman inside linebacker. There’s still a learning curve. Making the routine plays and getting off blocks will be the challenge against an improved Alabama offensive line.

UGA has been the best in America at embracing that “next man up” mantra. We’ll see how much that’s needed come Saturday.

3. But a healthy Kendall Milton … that’s a game-changer

If there was a major positive on the health side from the Georgia Tech game, it was that Milton was the best version of himself. Finally. Someone who has dealt with injuries in his career has looked like a guy who needed 20 touches instead of being more of a change-of-pace back.

Milton has been excellent the past 3 games, averaging 116 rushing yards. He had a career-high 127 against Ole Miss, and then one-upped it 2 weeks later with 156 yards against Georgia Tech.

It’ll be interesting to see if Milton, who has yet to play more than 31 snaps in a game this year, gets even more work against an Alabama defense that just had its worst game against the run all season. Daijun Edwards has seen a dip in his snap count and workload with Milton’s rise, but one would think that both will have a significant role on Saturday. Edwards is much better than Milton in the passing game, both in protection and as a receiver.

For the majority of the season, it felt like it was Edwards-or-bust in the ground game with occasional touches for Milton or the ever-versatile Dillon Bell. Now with the emergence of Milton, UGA has a true 1-2 punch in the backfield that’ll be difficult for the Tide’s run defense to contain.

4. Will the winning QB of this game get to New York?

It depends. Both are in the top 5 of our consensus Heisman odds. The top 4 vote-getters are going to New York, and if I had to guess, 2 of those spots feel locked up between Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. The Jordan Travis injury probably boosted the likelihood that Beck and Milroe can get to New York, along with the fact that JJ McCarthy has 1 touchdown in the past 4 games.

If this is a 17-14 game in which both defenses dominate and there are mistake-prone games from the quarterbacks, we could see an idle Marvin Harrison Jr. get to New York, along with Daniels, Nix and Michael Penix Jr. If Penix loses in the rematch and is significantly outplayed by Nix, perhaps there’s a shot that he plays himself out of a New York invite and that’s what opens the door for Beck of Milroe.

Beck’s case continues to improve. In the latter half of the season, he dealt with no shortage of key injuries at the pass-catcher spots, yet since the bye week, he’s got a 10-2 TD-INT ratio while averaging 10 yards/pass attempt and he’s only taken 3 sacks. That’s for a Georgia team that is averaging 40 points per contest.

Milroe led the most prolific Power 5 offense in America during November, which saw the Tide average 46 points per contest thanks to his 15 touchdowns in the past 4 weeks. In addition to taking just 4 sacks in that stretch, Milroe is now up to 33 total scores on the season, which is impressive for someone who missed an entire game.

(I didn’t say it was a benching. I just said he missed a game.)

Look at the 2 signal-callers side by side heading into Saturday:

2023
Beck
Milroe
TD-INT
22-6
21-6
QB rating
168.2
179.6
Yards/pass attempt
9.4
10.6
Rushing yards
128
439
Rushing TDs
3
12
Total TDs
25
33

Either Alabama or Georgia has had a quarterback in New York each of the past 3 seasons. Saturday could make it 4.

5. Let’s lay out the Playoff implications as I see it

It’s strange to say that so much is unknown going into this one, other than the fact that if UGA wins, it’ll be the No. 1 seed and the Tide won’t be in the Playoff. If Alabama wins, that’s when these scenarios can get crazy.

Let’s say Alabama wins, as well as the favorites (Michigan, Oregon, Florida State and Texas). In that scenario, we could see the selection committee have to make an unprecedented move for that final spot. I believe in 99.9% of scenarios, head-to-head for teams with the same number of losses should break the tie. What’s the 0.01%, you ask? Beating the 2-time defending national champs who enter with a 29-game winning streak is the ultimate trump card. Sorry, Texas. It just is.

Let’s also remember that no No. 1 seed entering conference championship weekend has ever failed to make the field. The 2021 Georgia squad that lost to Alabama fell the furthest to No. 3, though that was for a UGA squad that already had its ticket to Atlanta punched. That’s good news for Georgia, which has a much better regular-season résumé than originally expected thanks to Mizzou and Ole Miss both having 10-2 seasons.

It’s worth mentioning that this year, there are 8 Power 5 teams entering conference championship weekend with 0 or 1 loss. That’s the highest total ever for the 4-team Playoff. That’s why it doesn’t feel like anyone — even Georgia — is an undeniable lock to make the Playoff regardless of the outcome on conference championship weekend.

Having said that, I have a hard time envisioning a world in which the SEC gets left out of the field. Alabama and Georgia entering the weekend with a combined 1 loss and having an SEC-less Playoff for the first time … it just doesn’t add up. Not when the conference has had 16 of its past 17 winners play for a national title (2014 Alabama was the lone team that didn’t, but it still made the 4-team Playoff).

I continue to bang the drum that an undefeated Florida State won’t get left out of the field, despite some pretty telling comments from the selection committee about the post-Jordan Travis injury version of FSU. But FSU losing to Louisville could absolutely open things up a bit. It could give Georgia some grace with a loss and put 2 SEC teams in the field. Alternatively, maybe that’s exactly what Texas needs knowing that a Pac-12 team will fall and Ohio State is idle.

Of course, Texas losing makes that Alabama path clearer than ever. In the final year of this era of the 4-team Playoff and the 14-team SEC, there’s no denying the conference would love a bit of outside chaos to get another 2-team bid.

And a prediction … Georgia 31, Alabama 28

There’s a scenario in which Georgia shows up with bad intentions, and an Alabama team that lost its only game against a top-30 defense looks overwhelmed. That feels more likely than a repeat of the 2021 SEC Championship, which saw Georgia exposed after playing in so many blowouts. Granted, that UGA team got redemption in the best way. A 4th-quarter comeback to beat Alabama for the program’s first national title in 41 years was, by all accounts the stuff of legend.

Since that night in Indianapolis, all signs point to Georgia being immortal. Nothing has stood in their way this year, even though those slow offensive starts hurt in the first half of the season, and injuries were supposed to hurt in the second half. Smart has gone from being the guy who would be clowned for in-game decisions — the lack of defensive adjustments post-Tua Tagovailoa switch, the 2018 SEC Championship fake punt, etc. — to being the guy who can push all the right buttons.

I believe Smart will again push those right buttons.

Maybe it takes a bit to see that. We could see Milroe dominate early with his legs to fuel a halftime lead. UGA struggled in the first half to contain Brady Cook’s mobility. Smart took it a few steps further and compared Milroe to an even tougher version of Tebow.

Interesting, it is, that Smart was on the sidelines leading that Alabama defense when it got over the Florida hump and it contained Tebow in the 2009 SEC Championship. Saturday isn’t necessarily a “get over the hump” day for a UGA program that’s 3 wins from the first 3-peat in 87 years, but would it be a major feat to end the Tide’s 15-year winning streak in Atlanta? You bet.

I believe in Georgia to finally get that done.