1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

This is shaping up as the most intriguing offseason in years in the SEC, with the most defining storyline in the history of the conference.

Can Nick Saban find his championship mojo again?

“For us, the standard, that’s something that we live by,” Alabama quarterback Bryce Young said after a Sugar Bowl win over Kansas State. “It continues for the future of the program, the future of everything.”

But for how much longer?

Defensive coordinator Pete Golding has moved on to Ole Miss. Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien could leave for the NFL.

Young, a rare talent at the most important position on the field, didn’t win a national title in his 2 years as a starter and is headed to the NFL.

The offensive line hasn’t been remotely close to Alabama standards in the past 2 seasons, nor have the wide receivers.

Dynamic tailback Jahmyr Gibbs, who transferred in from Georgia Tech this season, is headed to the NFL.

Short story, long: There are more questions this offseason at Alabama than in any of Saban’s 16 previous seasons. And if that’s not enough, the Tide are suddenly chasing instead of leading the pack.

Georgia is the new king of college football — and isn’t going away anytime soon.

“Every team has to go through a process of development,” Saban said. “We have a lot of new players on this team.”

With a lot of lingering uncertainty.

There’s no other way to look at this: Georgia and coach Kirby Smart have the hardware.

Alabama has the excuses.

— If All-American wideout Jameson Williams didn’t injure his knee in the 1st quarter of last year’s national championship game, Alabama would’ve beaten Georgia just like it did in the 2021 SEC Championship Game.

— If Will Reichard doesn’t miss a 50-yard field goal, Alabama beats Tennessee. It’s a different game, even if it gets to overtime.

— If officials called the pick play on LSU’s 2-point conversion, Alabama wins.

— And last but certainly not least: If the Playoff selection committee had chosen the 4 best teams instead of the 4 most deserving, the Tide get in the Playoff and win it all.

Meanwhile, back in reality: There’s a reason Saban needed to add 5 starters from the transfer portal prior to this season to a roster that was stocked with the best recruiting classes in the nation.

All of those elite recruiting classes aren’t paying dividends — at least, to the Alabama standard. Now the best player in college football over the past 2 seasons is leaving.

Now Saban will retool his coaching staff, and if O’Brien leaves, will adjust to another offensive philosophy and play-caller. They’ll begin 2023 with more issues on the offensive line and a retooled defense with a new coordinator.

“Circumstances don’t make you,” Saban said. “They reveal the kind of character you have.”

2. Important hires

In the 2 most important games of the season, the Alabama defense couldn’t do enough to play winning football against Tennessee and LSU.

That same staff has lost Golding (to Ole Miss) and associate defensive coordinator/safeties coach Charles Kelly (to Colorado), and could lose more. That may not be a bad thing; change is often good.

There are, potentially, strong options. At the top of the list: Georgia co-defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann. An Alabama alum, Schumann is an elite recruiter who has spent the past 4 seasons on the Georgia staff as co-defensive coordinator — first with Dan Lanning, and then with Will Muschamp.

Schumann is 32, and has a strong reputation in the coaching fraternity. He spent 8 years at Alabama as a student assistant, graduate assistant and director of football operations.

One Georgia staffer told me Schumann is, “a young version of Kirby.” The obvious pitch: Come home to your alma mater and rebuild the Tide defense.

Schumann could have a championship impact, and put himself in position down the road to be Saban’s replacement. If Schumann truly is a young Kirby Smart, Alabama could do a lot worse when eventually replacing Saban.

Then there’s the offense. We may not know about O’Brien’s future for a few weeks until open head coaching jobs in the NFL are filled. He’s a candidate for head coach and offensive coordinator positions.

If O’Brien stays, he has worked for 2 years with QB Jalen Milroe, and a year with Ty Simpson, and no matter what Alabama fans think of O’Brien’s play-calling, his work developing Young was masterful (by Young’s own words).

If O’Brien leaves, Saban needs an offensive coordinator who’s also a quarterbacks coach and play-caller — with an emphasis on developing the position. Former Florida coach Dan Mullen would be a terrific hire if he’s interested.

If he’s not, Saban can’t afford to take a chance with the hire, can’t take a flyer like he did with Golding, an unproven entity from UTSA. Smart and the development of Georgia has forced Saban into can’t-miss hires at both coordinator positions.

3. Offseason change, The Epilogue

First it was Clemson. Then LSU. Now it’s Georgia.

There was even the manufactured drama of Texas A&M.

Year after year, the offseason has been about who can not only catch Alabama but surpass the king.

Clemson had 2 national titles in 3 years, but has missed the past 2 Playoffs and isn’t playing at the same level.

LSU had a meteoric splash in 2019, but couldn’t sustain under coach Ed Orgeron and is now building again under Brian Kelly.

Texas A&M beat Alabama in 2021, and Alabama was vulnerable after losing to Georgia in the national championship game and — ta-da! — a new contender emerged.

The potential rivalry got even hotter when Saban accused Fisher of buying every player in the Aggies’ No. 1 recruiting class. There was the public back and forth bickering, and the fight among close friends, and the curtain being pulled back on the impact of NIL on recruiting.

Meanwhile, Georgia kept eating everything is sight.

Now here we are with the inevitable showdown, and nowhere for Saban and the Alabama program to go. It’s Saban, face-to-face with the monster he created (Smart), and the only way out is to recruit better (which he did in this 2023 class) and outplay him (which he didn’t do the last time they met).

Unless something wildly unexpected happens next season, Georgia — with a favorable schedule and loaded roster — will be in the SEC Championship Game.

The question: Will Alabama, with a revamped coaching staff of 2 new coordinators, a new quarterback and the same lingering issues of the past 2 seasons, be there, too?

The offseason of Saban and Alabama finding a way back will be fascinating.

4. The money show

I don’t care what you’ve read, or what you’ve seen, there’s not 1 college football player — currently on an FBS roster, or a high school recruit — who has been offered $13 million to play for a university. If you believe that, I have a guaranteed winning lottery ticket to sell you.

These wild numbers — including the $8 million that was allegedly guaranteed to Tennessee signee QB Nico Iamaleava — are the byproduct of “advisors” or “agents” or “middle men” who float these ridiculous numbers in the social media echo chamber to drive up a brand new market that has no parameters.

Here’s what’s reality: The true numbers are a small fraction of those “millions” that are being reported. Boosters (who fund collectives) are quickly finding out that paying a 17- or 18-year-old young man a nice chunk of change doesn’t guarantee anything. In fact, it may just lead to a 5-7 season (hello, Aggies).

The rate of return isn’t there, and booster are — and will continue to be — reevaluating the money out/production return part of the equation.

And they most certainly aren’t paying $13 million for a Top 40 player.

5. The Weekly 5

The top 5 Heisman Trophy candidates from the SEC in 2023, with national odds from our friends at FanDuel:

  • 1. QB Jayden Daniels, LSU (+2000)
  • 2. QB Joe Milton, Tennessee (+2000)
  • 3. QB Carson Beck, Georgia (+4000)
  • 4. QB Ty Simpson, Alabama (+4000)
  • 5. QB KJ Jefferson, Arkansas (+6000)

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Georgia TE Darnell Washington.

“He can get by with a lot of things at the college level that he won’t here. The size and the length are impressive, but he’s a galloper, and it takes him a while to get up to top speed. He’s not going to be a guy who can stress a defense deep, and he’s not going to be a guy you can split out wide. Now, the good thing is he fights for every ball. He’s got that long range, and strong hands and if you throw it near him, he can rip it away from the defender.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: unique statistic of 2022.

1. Georgia: The No. 1 defense in the nation was 58th in average tackles for loss per game (6.07).

2. Alabama: Despite the negative focus on penalties this season, Tide only averaged 1.7 more penalty yards per game in 2022 than 2021 — and nearly 1 more penalty per game (7.9 to 7.1).

3. Tennessee: Forget about the pass-happy narrative: Vols rushed for 10 more touchdowns in 2022 (40) than 2021 (30).

4. LSU: Tigers were +56 from 2021 in long scrimmage plays of 10+ yards (237 in 2022, 181 in 2021).

5. Mississippi State: The defense is there — 3rd-down conversion percentage improved from 41.6 in 2021 to 33.5 in 2022.

6. South Carolina: Gamecocks led the SEC in turnovers gained (23) and turnovers lost (27).

7. Ole Miss: Rebels averaged more than a half yard per carry in 2022 (5.43) than 2021 (4.81).

8. Kentucky: Wildcats gave up 21 more sacks in 2022 (46) than 2021 (25).

9. Arkansas: Hogs gave up nearly 100 more yards per game in 2022 (464.8) than 2021 (367.6).

10. Florida: Gators were +8 in turnover ratio — including +5 in road games — and still lost 7 games.

11. Missouri: Tigers shaved 102 yards off their defensive rush yards per game average from 2021 (227.9) to 2022 (125.5).

12. Auburn: Tigers scored 20 TDs in 8 SEC games, and 15 TDs in 4 nonconference games.

13. Texas A&M: Aggies tackles for loss per game dropped from 7.33 (2021) to 5.83 (2022).

14. Vanderbilt: The Commodores have 26 sacks over the last 2 seasons. Colorado (22) is the only Power 5 school with less.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: Jimbo Fisher knows the history of (Bob) Petrino. Why would he add to his problems by hiring him? — Craig Poole, Miami.

Craig:

Petrino is a fabulous offensive mind and play-caller. If we start with just that concept and that alone, Fisher hiring Petrino as his offensive coordinator is brilliant.

He had Arkansas in the top 5, and he developed Lamar Jackson into a Heisman Trophy winner. Everywhere he goes, his quarterbacks are among the best in their respective conference, and the offense is prolific.

Make no mistake, he has some talent to work with at Texas A&M. Conner Weigman played well in 4 starts at the end of the season, and WR Evan Stewart and TE Donovan Green will soon be elite at their positions.

The offense will be completely different under Petrino, and will be more efficient and proficient. The only potential drawback: Can Petrino and Fisher — 2 of the biggest egos in the sport — coexist? It will be fascinating to watch.

9. Numbers

25. Zach Arnett made the first critical move of his tenure as the Mississippi State coach, hiring Kevin Barbay as offensive coordinator.

Get ready for a change in philosophy in Starkville. The Bulldogs will still throw it, but the days of the pass game accounting for 68 percent of offensive play calls — like they were in 2022 under late coach Mike Leach — are over.

Barbay has been an FBS offensive coordinator for 2 seasons: at Central Michigan in 2021, and App State in 2022. The Mountaineers threw the ball 43 percent of the time, a 25 percent difference from Mississippi State with Leach.

Arnett wants more balance in the offense, and with QB Will Rogers returning in 2023, wants to protect him with the run game.

App State QB Chase Brice threw for 2,921 yards and 27 TDs this season, and the run game accounted for 2,453 yards and 27 TDs — and averaged 5.18 yards per rush.

10. Quote to note

“You don’t inherit greatness. You don’t inherit this. You earn it. And that’s what this team did over the last year. They earned every single victory along the way.” — Kirby Smart