First and 10: Florida is starting to look a lot like LSU -- 2019 LSU
1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
The unstoppable offense. The unsteady defense that gets big plays and stops when needed.
That’s right, the Florida Gators are beginning to look a lot like the LSU Tigers from 2019.
“We’re playing with a lot of confidence right now,” Florida quarterback Kyle Trask said. “There are so many weapons in this offense.”
Close your eyes and listen closely, and you can hear Joe Burrow saying the same things in 2019. The similarities are striking.
A year before LSU’s remarkable run, before it made a case to be the best team in the modern era of the game, the Tigers’ wide receiving corps was a mess. They had 26 drops in 2018 and finished 96th among FBS schools with a catch percentage of 84.3%.
Before this season began, Florida’s wide receivers were either young or inexperienced or underachievers. Or all three.
The Gators had 4 receivers from 2019 make NFL rosters, and the returning group included a tight end who was underused (Kyle Pitts), 2 underachieving and or injured wideouts (Trevon Grimes, Kadarius Toney) and underclassmen and transfers.
Not exactly the best way to begin a season sideswiped and truncated by COVID.
LSU in 2019 gave up 38 points to Texas and Vanderbilt in September, and 41 and 37, respectively, to Alabama and Ole Miss in November. The Tigers never really became a dominant defense, but they did enough over the final month of the season to get stops when it had to.
The overwhelming LSU offense did the rest.
Florida gave up 35 points to Ole Miss, and 41 to Texas A&M, and has gotten better each week. Instead of trying to dominate, the defense, one Florida staffer told me, “realizes it just needs a couple of stops and the other guys are chasing points, and their life is a lot easier because the other guy is then predictable.”
LSU finally beat its nemesis, Alabama, by imposing its will on the Tide (33 points in the first half). LSU had lost 8 in a row to Alabama before winning in Tuscaloosa and taking control of the SEC West Division.
Florida had lost 3 in a row to Georgia, before imposing its will on Georgia (38 points in the first half), winning in Jacksonville and taking control of the SEC East Division.
Even the offensive lines are eerily similar. LSU struggled in 2018 to protect Burrow and create consistent production from the run game. By the end of 2019, there was no better offensive line in the nation.
Florida’s offensive line was average at best in 2019, allowing 25 sacks and leading the way for a run game that was 13th in the SEC (129 ypg.). Through 6 games in 2020, Florida quarterbacks have been sacked 6 times, and the unit has become a team strength.
“They’re both brutally tough to defend,” one SEC defensive coordinator told me. “LSU had more deep threats. So many guys that can run under it, and (Burrow) threw an absolutely perfect deep ball. Florida has those big, physical guys on the outside, and two matchup nightmares with Pitts and Toney.”
He paused for a moment to underscore the severity of the problems in coverage.
“Here’s the thing,” he continued, “all of those guys will go get the ball, you know? So Trask puts it where only they can get it, and it’s impossible to defend. You’ve got 6-3, 220-230 pound guys shielding your corners and safeties and catching everything thrown to them. And then there’s Toney, who doesn’t go down. You ask who’s tougher to defend? It’s death by 100 paper cuts with Florida, or by a bullet deep ball with LSU. Either way, you’re in deep (expletive deleted).”
2. The QB shift
Burrow began the 2019 season as a late-round or free-agent NFL prospect. He didn’t show enough arm talent or accuracy in 2018, and it was clear he wasn’t a fit in the run-first LSU offense.
Enter new passing game coordinator Joe Brady, who took the plodding, misfit LSU offense and turned it into a sleek machine with unique run-pass options and deadly play calling.
Burrow skyrocketed all the way to the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, a rise never before seen in the modern era of the draft. Brady, meanwhile, went from his first season as an LSU assistant, to making $2 million a year as the offensive coordinator of the Carolina Panthers.
Trask finished 2019 as a novelty of sorts. He picked up the Florida offense when Feleipe Franks (more on him later) was injured in Week 3 and played well for much of the season.
But he wasn’t a fit for Mullen’s typical dual-threat offense that relies on a quarterback’s legs and arm. In fact, heading into spring practice (pre-COVID), there were some on staff who believed Emory Jones – a better fit for Mullen’s offense – could win the job.
Spring practice never happened and Jones never had the opportunity to push Trask, and when it was obvious the season would be played, the smart move was to stick with Trask and eliminate more confusion.
Trask took off in the offense from Game 1, and the receivers got hot and Mullen quickly moved from the days of inside isolation runs (see: Florida 2006-2008) setting up play action, to winging it with Trask.
Once Toney hit his stride in Week 2 and became more of a factor in the offense – and gave the receivers a more dynamic option – the offense was complete. A big tight end who runs like a wideout. Three physical, wideouts who can run past the second level and stretch the field and make tough catches over the middle.
This leaves only one comparison remaining: Where does Trask fit in the NFL?
“There were guys all over the place on him before the season,” an NFL scout told me. “I heard a couple of guys say he won’t even be drafted. I got a text from one of them just Saturday, after the throw to (Justin) Shorter. He said, ‘You might be right.’ Look, I’ve said all along that he had the ability to have a Burrow-type jump.
“He’s not the No.1 overall pick. He’s not even a top 10-15. But he’ll go in the 20s, and if he keeps playing like he has and they have a big season, who knows? His arm is much better than people give it credit for, and he knows the game and throws so accurately when he’s moved (from the pocket).”
3. The Repeat, The Epilogue
The big question still left unanswered: What is the immediate future of this Florida team?
LSU put it all together in the final month of the season on both sides of the ball and became a force unlike any other in the history of the game. Burrow had the greatest single season in the history of college football, and the Tigers finally moved forward from the Crawl Ball era of Les Miles and pining away for the days of Nick Saban.
This season is clearly an outlier. Who knows how many regular-season games will be played (more on that later), or for that matter, who will be eligible for the College Football Playoff?
The only thing we truly know is Florida (barring a disaster) will have 1 loss when it plays unbeaten Alabama (also, barring disaster) in the SEC Championship Game with a spot in the CFP on the line – and maybe the Heisman Trophy, too (see: Alabama QB Mac Jones is really, really good).
Here, finally, we see the one difference between the two strikingly similar seasons of LSU and Florida: the Tigers beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, a Georgia team it manhandled in the 2018 regular season.
Florida hasn’t played Alabama since back-to-back emasculations in the 2015-16 SEC Championship Game, and has lost 6 in a row to the Tide. The last Florida victory was in the 2008 SEC Championship Game, when Mullen was offensive coordinator for Urban Meyer – a job that shortly after the 2008 game, led to his first head coaching job at Mississippi State.
The athletic director who hired him at Mississippi State? Current Alabama AD Greg Byrne.
4. SEC scheduling in flux
Four SEC games were postponed last week because of COVID-related issues, but before you think the SEC will get sideways over a tough weekend, I refer you back to this summer.
The Big Ten and Pac-12 panicked, the SEC, ACC and Big 12 stayed the course.
Or as one SEC AD told me, “We put too much work into this season for our student-athletes to just abandon the plan because of one bad week. It’s a process.”
The hope is the added week of the season – SEC presidents last week approved championship week as an additional play week – will allow teams to finish a complete regular season.
Now, the wrench in the process: if Florida — which already has used its bye week and already is scheduled to play in the open week of Dec. 12 (vs. LSU) — misses another game, there will have to be adjustments.
The SEC doesn’t want to change course from the original plan (it already has with the addition of Dec. 19 as a play week, although that was a fallback plan from Day 1), but it’s clear that the league’s two teams playing in the SEC Championship Game must have equal roads to Atlanta.
If that means completely redoing the remaining schedule to make it work for every team, that will happen. But another SEC AD told me, “We’re not close to being there yet. We are not panicking. We are working the problem.”
5. The Weekly Five
Five picks against the spread
- Missouri (-4) at South Carolina
- LSU at Arkansas (-2.5)
- Kentucky at Alabama (-30)
- Ole Miss (+12) at Texas A&M
- Tennessee at Auburn (-10)
Last week: 0-1 (4 games postponed).
Season: 20-15.
6. Your tape is your résumé
Each week an NFL scout breaks down a draft-eligible player. This week: Arkansas QB Feleipe Franks:
“He’s not an early-round guy. But he’s one of those guys who could get to the Senior Bowl, play his ass off, and make teams take a second look. He has all the physical tools you want in a starter. A big guy, strong arm, tough guy, athletic ability. He makes those ‘wow’ throws – and he has been making more of them this season.
“Early in his career (at Florida), he had lapses where you wondered if he even understood the concepts (of the passing game). He got better under (Florida coach) Dan (Mullen), and he’s taking another step with (Arkansas QB/OC Kendal) Briles. He has touch on the flat throws and has velocity on the quick stuff.
“He’s figuring out the intermediate throws and he has always had a really nice deep ball. I’m excited to see him in the Senior Bowl and see what he can do when he’s playing for money, for a job. Some guys shrink in that moment, others thrive in it.”
7. Powered Up
This week’s Power Poll – and one big thing.
1. Alabama: It has been 2 weeks since we’ve seen the Tide, but don’t expect a letdown. Kentucky’s defense has gotten worse as the season has progressed.
2. Florida: Maybe there will be a snowstorm, or frigid temperatures, or something that will slow down the Gators’ offense at Vanderbilt. Or maybe just another rout.
3. Texas A&M: When Jimbo Fisher had it going in Tallahassee, his FSU teams would eat up these moments against lower-tier conference rivals on a hot streak. This Ole Miss game will be another good barometer of how far the Aggies have come in 2020.
4. Georgia: We haven’t heard about freshman QB Carson Beck all season. Now he’s getting some first-team reps. That shows the uneasiness of the QB room at Georgia.
5. Auburn: An important moment for Auburn, which overlooked Tennessee 2 years ago and lost at home to a clearly inferior team. Can’t let it happen again to another struggling Vols team.
6. Arkansas: Forget about the Florida loss. An anomaly in a difficult week. Barry Odom’s defense must regroup for LSU’s 2 freshman quarterbacks and snap the Tigers’ 4-game winning streak in the rivalry.
7. Ole Miss: The defense is terrible. But if you can score points in bunches, you’re in just about every game – no matter what it looks like. That separates Ole Miss from the rest of the second tier in the SEC.
8. Missouri: The Tigers face South Carolina, 1 of 4 winnable games for Missouri over the final 5 weeks of the season. South Carolina’s defense has giving up 8.1 yards per play in the last 2 weeks vs. Texas A&M and Ole Miss and just fired head coach Will Muschamp.
9. Kentucky: By mid-December, Kentucky will look back at blown opportunities against Ole Miss and Missouri while staring at a 4-win season. Pick a QB – Terry Wilson or Joey Gatewood – and move forward.
10. LSU: Because of the bye week and COVID postponements, the Tigers will have had 3 weeks to get the defense set. If Franks starts throwing deep ball dimes in a Hogs rout, I’m not sure LSU DC Bo Pelini makes it back to Baton Rouge.
11. Tennessee: The fool’s gold of a 6-game win streak to end last season (against the SEC second tier and UAB and Indiana) made a loyal and proud fan base believe Jeremy Pruitt had turned the corner, especially after the Vols started 2-0 this year. An ugly loss to Texas A&M will cement otherwise.
12. South Carolina: I’ll agree with fired coach Will Muschamp: The Gamecocks are playing hard. The problem: They’re just not that good — and they’re dealing with injuries on the lines of scrimmage. And, now, a coaching change.
13. Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are 2nd in the SEC in turnovers forced (12) and might need 3+ at Georgia. That and eliminate any turnovers (SEC-high 19) on offense – and you might just be in the game.
14. Vanderbilt: The Commodores played their 2 best games of the season and still lost to Mississippi State and Kentucky by a combined 10 points. Florida isn’t happening, fellas. Focus on Tennessee in Nashville next week.
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt: I have a deal for you. We’ll just keep winning, and by the end of the season, if you have Florida ranked ahead of Texas A&M, you have to admit you’re wrong. How anyone can rank Florida ahead of Texas A&M is a mystery to me. So we’ll just keep winning, OK?
Lee Bougher
Houston
Lee: While I’m a big believer in head-to-head scores, there’s certainly room for argument – especially considering the way Texas A&M won the game. If Florida doesn’t gift the Aggies a fumble, the Gators run clock, score and the game is over. The Gators had one drive in the game that didn’t end in points.
More pressing: The idea that the Aggies are going to win out is a huge assumption, especially considering the history of the program under coach Jimbo Fisher. Earlier this season against Florida and Alabama, the Aggies’ defense gave up a combined averaged of 8.5 yards per play, and a whopping 12.6 yards per attempt in the passing game.
Now here comes Ole Miss, which has proven it can score on anyone in the SEC – including Alabama and Florida. Rebels QB Matt Corral has 10 TDs and 0 INT in the last 2 games and completed 89.3% of his passes in those games. Texas A&M has a better defense than Vanderbilt and South Carolina, but a hot quarterback with 3 legitimate NFL receivers (WRs Elijah Moore and Jonathan Mingo, TE Kenny Yeboah) will stress any team.
More than anything, Texas A&M’s College Football Playoff hopes – because that’s what this ranking argument is about – depend on winning out (no easy thing), and either of these things happening: Alabama losing twice before the SEC Championship Game (zero chance) or Florida losing to Alabama in the championship game.
Even then, the Aggies’ resume might not be strong enough to give the SEC a second team in the CFP. The SEC’s best hope at getting two teams in the CFP is Florida winning out and beating unbeaten Alabama in a close game in the SEC Championship. That could be enough to get both Alabama and Florida in the CFP.
9. Numbers: 5.03
The collapse of the Tennessee season has many tentacles, but none more glaring than the play of QB Jarrett Guarantano. Since the second half of a blowout loss to Georgia (that UT led 21-17 at halftime), Guarantano has had a miserable stretch of 3 1/2 games.
In those games, he has completed 56.5% of his passes for 383 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs and 4 fumbles (3 lost). More damning: his average per attempt in that span in a measly 5.03 yards.
To put that in perspective, the nation’s leader in average yards per attempt is Mac Jones of Alabama at 12.4. The lowest in the nation is Spencer Petras of Iowa at 5.7.
The ball isn’t going downfield for Tennessee and defenses are sitting on (and defending) short routes. The passing game has been brutal, the offense can’t move the ball and the result has been a 4-game losing streak. It’s not that difficult to decipher.
10. Quote to note
Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, on the pass-catch combination of QB Matt Corral and WR Elijah Moore (27 catches, 463 yards, 5 TD) over the last 2 games: “Another ridiculous game. I don’t know if there’s ever been 2 games back-to-back with a quarterback and receiver, when you add these 2 games up, that have ever done that before. So it’s pretty amazing.”
Just want to see Kyle toss 8 TDs on Tenn in Naylend.
HE COULD DO THAT IN THE 1ST HALF.
LSU was 15-0 in 2019. They didn’t lose despite playing 15 games against SEVEN top ten teams. LSU had some defensive struggles, but after 15 games (did I mention that seven of those games were against teams that ended the season in the top ten?), the average score by opposing teams was 22 points. 2020 Florida has played two good teams and they are 1-1 against those teams. Not only is Florida’s defense giving up significantly more than 22 points a game, there is only one game where they gave up less than 22 points. In summary, 2020 Florida looks nothing like 2019 LSU.
Agreed. Nowhere near the same level. 2020 Florida is…..2020 Florida.
What you’re not factoring in is, LSU not only had a full offseason to get things in order, they had several matchups against teams like Georgia Southern, Northwestern State, Vanderbilt, and Utah State to get things right before getting to the bulk of the SEC schedule. Had they had to face an all out SEC schedule right from the start, then they very well could’ve lost a game before they got things rolling, especially with the way their defense was struggling to start the season. Trask has already put up better numbers through 6 games than Burrow did against that joke of a schedule listed above, so to say they look nothing like LSU, is actually not true. You just refuse to accept it.
When did Florida fans start making so many excuses? Burrow was at LSU two years. Trask has actually been at Florida for three…
The OP actually gave reasons as to why they aren’t similar to LSU and it’s more than just losing a game…
Every team is dealing with Covid not just Florida which even out the playing field. Acting as if Florida is at some big disadvantage is just not true as LSU didn’t get a couple of weeks off after their first 3 games either.
Gators gonna drop a nickel and a dime on y’all, bet.
So 4 cupcakes in the first 4 games means nothing? Give me a break, even LSU fans would tell you it took a while for their defense to get rolling. The original poster did give reasons, but they don’t mean squat considering his reasons are about a team that played a full season. Maybe we should let Florida play their remaining schedule before making those comparisons, or no, cause it doesn’t fit your narrative? Through 6 games they’re very similar, if you have some facts you’d like to throw out to dispute that feel free, but you clearly just want to run your mouth like always. Yes not having a full offseason matters when making comparisons to teams from last year. If I were comparing them to other teams this year, then it wouldn’t. Not sure how you confused that point, but it’s not surprising. As always you’re trigger happy and don’t actually comprehend what’s being said before firing back.
He listed facts, you just don’t want to acknowledge them.
Florida has played two teams with a winning record and they split those games…
No ones denying that. Maybe read my first comment a little slower and try to comprehend it.
4 cupcakes in the first four?
Your history is a little hazy. LSU went on the road to beat a top 10 Texas in week 2.
Lets be real, 2019 LSU would mop the floor with 2020 Florida… facts.
Ok, slak. What do you think Bama is going to do with Florida? Bama has the better offense and defense. So if Florida is “gonna drop a nickel and a dime” on Bama, what’s Bama going to drop on Florida? A quarter and a half dollar?
Trask has been at Florida for 3 yrs, but started only 15 times. Through 6 games He has thrown more TD’s than Tua and Burrow. Trask is setting SEC records each week. The Bama game will be much better with Trask at the helm instead of Treon Harris. We have a chance this time.
you will never be able to compare 1 season to another! Trask’s numbers are better than Burrow and Jone’s to this point, and lets just take that for what it is and enjoy the ride. I for one cant wait to see Bama/UF!!!
Other than TD’s is stats are not better. If he keeps up his current YPG average he’d still fall short of Burrow. He’d need another game and a half to get there.
Plus we all know they won’t get the NC game so he’ll fall short regardless
I agree and that is my point.
you spend most of your post describing more differences between 2020 Florida and 2019 LSU but then close by saying that they do look alike and I “just refuse to accept it”. I didn’t say that 2020 Florida was bad, just that they don’t look like 2019 LSU. They can look different and still both be good teams.
Regardless of how 2020 Florida ends up, I will make one prediction right now and bet the house on it. 2021 Florida >>>>>>>> 2020 LSU.
It’s truly pathetically bad when you are having to justify your mere continued existence on a weekly basis one season after being claimed to be the best everything ever anywhere.
What bridge do you live under troll? No one is making excuses for this years team. Facts are they lost a ton, more than Florida for sure and are young with new coaches, dealing with lack of Spring practice and Covid related issues so it’s a bit understandable.
UF won’t even win a championship of any kind this year and it will just be another year of would, coulda for the Gators.
All facts…
I like how everyone brings up the fumble as if Florida didn’t literally get a similar fumble about 5 minutes earlier in the game. Such biased BS. Guess it’s only luck if you’re not a favorite of writers
Right! A&M had all the momentum and was finally in the driver’s seat after playing from behind all game before their fumble. If A&M had lost because of that, would the narrative be that they had fumbled away the win?
“Gift the Aggies a fumble” is not going to stop. Never mind that it was a forced fumble caused by a good defensive play. Just a silly and irresponsible comment.
It was a forced fumble and TAMU earned the win. But I don’t think anyone outside of College Station thinks TAMU is the better team.
The Ole Miss game is going to be a shootout. Matt Corral is for real. TAMU could absolutely lose to Ole Miss and or Auburn, which is trending upward. I would focus on those two games instead of your odds of getting into the CFP.
ummm, tamu beat Florida… they are absolutely the better team. They won the game. Keep digging watson!
They won when it counted and deserve to be ranked ahead but if they played tomorrow UF would be favored.
TAMU-41 Florida-38
A&M has already proven who the better team is on the field. If results don’t matter, why play the games? Are Florida fans becoming the new Georgia fans? I mean, Trask is great, so is the offense, but there are plenty of holes on that team. The defense allowed 13.2 ypp and 6.5 ypc to Arky. No other team has allowed close to that level of offensive production for Arkansas this season. Not even Ole Miss. That’s a huge, glaring issue that Bama will easily take advantage of. Bama’s defense is heading in the right direction while Florida’s is going backwards. And unlike LSU 2019, Florida doesn’t have the elite talent on defense to take over when needed.
Youre trying too hard bud. Yes, they won but Vegas doesn’t think they are a better team. Nor do most fans who follow the sport. That’s all I was saying.
Trivia question for Cody,
Which team gave up the second most points to the Arkansas offense and how many points did they score?
Answer: A&M, allowing 31 points and only scoring 42.
UF put up 63, which Bama has matched against Ole Miss a defense only rivaled by Vandy.
You may be mixing up your team’s colors with A&M’s. Nobody said anything about UF being better than your precious Bama. At the same time that doesn’t make UF worse than A&M.
“You may be mixing up your team’s colors with A&M’s. Nobody said anything about UF being better than your precious Bama. At the same time that doesn’t make UF worse than A&M.”
TAMU actually beating Florida tends to help make the case they’re better.
I forgot about the transitive property of football bamatime. You’re so right. Bama is 31 points better than UF. But wait, if we’re using UGA as a reference Bama is only 1 point better. This confuses me as the results of games should leave me with only one logical conclusion. I can’t decide which one to use.
I would like to exclude context of course and other games and actually watching the teams play.
What are you even talking about? I haven’t compared Bama to Florida in any post…
If you want to try and call me out about something At least get it right..
I’ll agree that the wording and structure of the argument needs a second pass. There is no such thing as a gifted turnover. A&M played hard and won a game.
Having said that, though, I don’t understand why A&M fans tend to act like the game was a complete blowout. It was a very close, back and forth game that showcased both programs. A&M found their edge and came away with a win. There’s no arguing there. But the fanbase also wants to forget about early season struggles (UF defense was a mess first few games) while also accepting early season struggles (A&M let Vandy stay in their game way too long). You can’t have it both ways here.
Absolutely agree – feel like both teams have gotten better each week.
Can we all agree that A&M fans harping on their mid-season ranking has come close to being as annoying as UGA fans bragging about recruiting rankings?
The season will work it all out. Patience everyone.
Harping on mid season ranking? Only think I have seen in defending there rank on one spot. Agree waiting for rest of year to play out. Get back to you after auburn at jhs. Even though we have a better record there against them then at Kyle field since we joined the SEC.
I don’t G-A-S what the rankings are until Dec 20th. It’s the idiotic media basically discounting the actual results on the field of play.
Your second sentence shows me that you do care. Rankings are based on full body of work.
I think it’s legitimate to have UF ahead of A&M:
Of A&M’s 5 wins, avg margin of victory: 15.6
Of UF’s 5 wins, avg margin of victory: 19.6
A&M’s 1 loss, 28 point loss in an away game.
UF’s 1 loss, 3 point loss on last second field goal in an away game.
You don’t have to believe it (and I wouldn’t blame you for not), but it’s plausible the A&M-UF game was flukey. I’m not saying it was, A&M is good this year but A&M has looked unstoppable in one game this year. My personal opinion is UF has looked unstoppable more.
You’re not allowed to bring logic to these comments.
This. All of this.
I don’t know anyone discrediting A&M’s success this year. They’ve steadily improved each week, and are looking very strong. UF has also improved each week, but the leaps are larger.
UF/A&M was a back and forth slugfest early in the season that ended with a small margin of victory. Hats off to the home team.
The question people need to ask is, would a head-to-head result be the same now as it was in week three. That’s what national rankings have to take into account. Given the body of work and quality of wins, who would win (on paper) each week.
Why would those hypotheticals need to be done? They played the game….
They have the same record… TAMU has the better win and lost to the number one team…
The game also took place before covid started impacting everyone so much..
It seems that this has to be explained every week, but I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt bamatime.
There are rankings and there are seedings. Rankings are subjective and take into account full body of work and can use logic and the eye test to determine rank.
Seeding is the system professional leagues use to determine playoff order. Seedings are also used to determine the winners of each division in college football conferences.
The issue with seeding in college football is due to the schedules not presenting a fair 1 to 1 comparison of teams so subjectivity has to be introduced. In professional leagues, teams play other teams at least twice (home and away) to reduce happenstance from influencing the seedings.
UF got an away game for its one chance against TAMU. Unlucky, sure, but that’s why rankings can take that into consideration against the rest of the body of work and rank UF ahead of TAMU.
Yet you don’t have to do a hypothetical about the outcome of the game. They actually played the game and won’t play each other again…
Giving more weight to a hypothetical instead of what actually took place between the two opponents makes no sense at all. Especially when they both played each other before Covid started causing havoc on the season..
TAMU also has the best win between the two…
Like usual, your explanation doesn’t improve your argument at all… It’s your opinion though so you’re entitled to it…
If you were going to make a similar argument, but for A&M, what would it be?
If only everything was as simple as you can explain it. Subjectivity, as explained means you can think a little deeper than the end result of 1 game.
UF has a 16 point neutral site victory over a then ranked top 5 team. A&M has a 3 point home victory over a then ranked top 5 team….
Also had already made the argument, the explanation was to complement the reasoning behind the argument.
The argument for A&M would be they held UF to under 40 points and they killed South Carolina.
This is the point I’m trying to make though: at best, the result of the A&M-UF game makes it a toss up (at best, the game looked 50-50 and A&M happened to win). At worst, you start bringing in the results of the other games and the fact that game was at home for A&M and UF had a bunch of uncharacteristic penalties and still only won by 3 and it flips to UF looking better.
Well, hbobodraw, let’s just not play the games then. Let’s just use a bunch of hypotheticals instead of actual game results. It doesn’t matter that some people think Florida would beat A&M now. They didn’t when they could’ve. Either that matters or we’re wasting our time with actual games.
“UF has a 16 point neutral site victory over a then ranked top 5 team. A&M has a 3 point home victory over a then ranked top 5 team….”
Florida has a win over the #13 team in the AP. Tamu has a win over the number 6 in the AP which happens to be the head to head…
Neither Florida or TAMU has a win over a top 5 team but TAMU clearly has the better win and head to head…
That’s reality…
Unless you also believe game time ranks is more important than what the team is currently ranked?
The argument for TAMU is simple.. They beat Florida. They also have the better win between the two…
If you compare Florida’s body of work to TAMU, TAMU is clearly over Florida at this point…
The games matter which is the exact point I’m trying to make. One home game that was a victory that was squeaked out does not bear all the weight of a ranking.
I’m not saying you have to put UF ahead of A&M, but I am saying it’s not crazy to do so. Your eye test and my eye test are different.
So Mississippi State is better than LSU and South Carolina is better than Auburn and Tennessee is better than Mizzou and Florida State is better than UNC. Auburn was definitely better than Bama last year.
Head to head is important of course but teams play more than one game. Head to head is a seeding tie breaker, it can but does not have to be a ranking tie breaker. In the case of A&M-UF the game was essentially a toss up on a non-neutral field, that allowed for subjectivity to be brought in. They could’ve demonstrably proven they were the better team in that game but they didn’t.
You know, it just feels like cherry picking. But I’m not mad.
A&M rank in SEC:
total defense – 1st
yards per game – 1st
total TD’s allowed – 3rd
total yards allowed – 2nd
Interesting side note, 6 teams out of 7 for total offense are from the west. The only east team in the top half is Florida. A&M will of course play them all, but has already played, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th, in Bama, Fla, and Ark.
Florida ranks 9th in total defense in the SEC, and that’s by feasting on the lower half of the teams in total offense. A&M is ranked 1st and has played the best.
A&M on the other hand is 5th in total offense in the SEC, 3rd in rushing offense, 7th in passing offense.
So A&M is in the top half of the conference in offensive and defensive categories, particularly big ones. Florida, not nearly as much.
When I look at the stats from our game, I don’t see a team that won by 3, I see a team that won by 2 TDs.
1st downs: 32 – 22 A&M
total yads: 543 – 402 A&M
passing yards: 338 – 312 A&M
rushing yards: 205 – 90 A&M
Was Florida lucky to be within 7?
Cold Chills, it’s ok to think it’s cherry picking I could say the same about the stats you brought up. The eye test is much more than a yards per game contest.
It’s widely agreed upon that using the yards per game stat to measure offensive and defensive quality is shaky. If you haven’t read up on points per drive, it’s pretty interesting especially considering it removes garbage time possessions. I agree A&M’s defense is better than UF and I don’t think many people would argue that but I think the argument is that UF’s offense is so strong that it nets out better.
In points per drive, UF is ranked 5th in offense and 57th in defense. A&M is 18th in offense and 49th in defense.
Look, defending Florida is not something I love doing but I think there’s justification to their team’s case. I would rank them above A&M, you don’t have to. That’s fine with me, but a case can certainly be made for them.
So of all those teams listed how many of them have the same record? Which ones have the better win?
Sure the head to head isn’t the end all be all and it’s not when you put TAMU above Florida…
Like I’ve said.. They have the head to head but TAMU also has the better win, number 6 compared to number 13….
They also have the better loss with their loss to number 1…
There record is currently the same at 5-1, so when you take in the wins, losses and head to head it favors TAMU…
Now if the sun sets early on the hypothetical game between Florida and TAMU With the wind blowing from the north. The grass being slightly less dense in the south end zone then the north with the 20 yard line being painted a shad darker than the 40….
Florida still would have lost the actual game that took place..
UGA fans love what if, next time and hypothetically…
Bamatime, we’re going to have to agree to disagree on this one. You think simple logic is best, I think context, evaluation, and full body of work should be considered.
UF beat the current 13 by 16 points on a neutral site deeper into the season. A&M won a back and forth battle at home by 3 to the current 6 team. There’s not a definitive answer as to which of those wins is better (read: margin matters).
If there’s such thing as a better loss, UF losing on a last second field goal in an away game to a top 10 team is better then getting BLOWN OUT by the number 1 team. They lost by 28 points and didn’t even look competitive. Teams that have fared better against Bama: Mizzou, Ole Miss, and Georgia. Just because you play the number 1 team doesn’t mean you get to claim a quality loss. HOW you lose is also important.
Why do Bama fans care about what makes them look better? They’re undefeated and ranked number one and most everyone agrees on that. The perception isn’t getting hitched to whether or not A&M is better than UF.
Its not about hitching anything to TAMU. This is a sports blog so we’re talking sports. Why do you care to continue to argue that Florida is better?
Sure, we can agree to disagree. I think TAMU losing to the Number 1 team is a better loss than Florida losing to the team that lost by 28. How do you knock TAMU for losing by 28 to Bama but at the same time give them no credit for beating Florida?
I also think TAMU has the better win. They beat number 6 and gave florida their only loss.
No matter how you want to look at it TAMU has the better resume at this point. If you don’t think so let do me a favor… Take out all the hypotheticals and tell me what is the reasoning for ranking Florida above TAMU.
@hbobodraw, great, you and I both agree that we both cherry picked. It seems my point rang true. However, margin of victory are just as shaky a stat, I really cant imagine why people would care much about it, except to compare common opponents.
The issue will eventually get back to, after each of us contextualizes all the stats we cite, get all that subjectively weighted stuff out of the way, we will be left with a search for an objective comparison.
Do we have something like that? It seems we do. Look, in the end, we will get more info like and this may work it self out.
A&M gets the chance to win out. Yall get the chance to play bama. Go beat Bama and there will literally be no one who wants to argue. If yall don’t beat them, then you can go at it by making folks believe yall played them harder than we did. Lose by about the same amount, and sorry, but move on. They had their chances.
Same thing goes for us, if we dont win out, sorry, we had our chance.
I’m not arguing for Florida, I’m arguing for a principle. Trust me I hate Florida more than any other college football team and it’s not even close. Auburn has tried but the hate for Florida is deep.
What I’m strongly arguing for is the principle of a home game head to head being the end all be all in a ranking. You can call the rest of the resumes equal and say the head to head is the tie break, but I think you’re fooling yourself if you think the rest of the resumes are truly equal.
From a seeding perspective sure, A&M would get the nod but that doesn’t make them the better team. We don’t have to agree on that, but it seems like the people arguing for A&M don’t think it could be logical to still have UF ahead of A&M.
The reasoning for ranking UF ahead of A&M:
– UF has been in complete control of all its wins and its closest game was to South Carolina at a 14 point margin of victory. Their worst game they played was their one loss which was an away game where they barely lost on a last second field goal
– A&M has looked good in 3 games this season: a home game they barely won, dominant win against South Carolina, a solid win against Arkansas. They have looked bad in 2 games: playing within 5 points of easily the worst team in the conference, getting utterly dominated by the Bama. They have looked ok in 1 game: beating the second worst team in the conference 28-14.
Also call me a snowflake but I do take offense to being called “y’all” in association with UF. My team had their chance with Bama and UF and proved they weren’t good enough for the CFP conversation.
I’m a fan of UGA but I’d like to think I can have somewhat of a less biased lens when evaluating teams and games. Still have my UGA bias of course but my goal is evaluation separate from fandom.
“The reasoning for ranking UF ahead of A&M:
– UF has been in complete control of all its wins and its closest game was to South Carolina at a 14 point margin of victory. Their worst game they played was their one loss which was an away game where they barely lost on a last second field goal
– A&M has looked good in 3 games this season: a home game they barely won, dominant win against South Carolina, a solid win against Arkansas. They have looked bad in 2 games: playing within 5 points of easily the worst team in the conference, getting utterly dominated by the Bama. They have looked ok in 1 game: beating the second worst team in the conference 28-14.”
So that is your reasoning taking out hypotheticals? Lets take a look at them…
So looking at your first point.. They dominated in all their wins but they have a loss right? You then go on again to discredit TAMU’s win against Florida because it was a close away game. In 8 weeks Florida has only played two away games with two weeks off in the middle but they get a pass because they played at TAMU? That’s laughable.
Now on to your second point.. You again try to discredits TAMU’s win over Florida while knocking them for losing by 28 to Bama. SO Florida lost to the team that lost by 28 to Bama and that’s a knock on TAMU? A pass for Florida? You say TAMU has only looked ok in 1 game beating the second worse team in the conference, yet they beat Florida who is leading the east right? Does a win against the number 6 ranked team not look good even if its a close win?
Now lets talk about the Resume you don’t think is equal.. The problem is you want to remove the head to head and just use whats left. You cant do that because the head to head happened. You want to remove TAMU’s win against the number 6 team and then compare them to Florida… What’s Florida claim to fame? A win over number 13 UGA? You cant tell me there is anything impressive about a schedule of Ole Miss, SC, Missouri and Arkansas? None of those teams have a winning record…
actually looking at Florida’s schedule they may only play two teams with a winning record for the entire regular season and they currently sit at 1-1…
And since you keep talking about the Bama/TAMU game remember that game actually took place the week prior to TAMU playing Florida.. So TAMU had to deal with Bama while Florida got to play the powerhouse SC leading up to their game…
I’m not trying to discredit A&M’s win, sorry if that’s how I said it. I AM trying to discredit that as being the end all be all of a resume.
You can’t ignore A&M’s struggles this season in actual games (not hypothetical). The SEC currently has 5 teams above .500 and that will change as teams play games (shocker) and A&M is 1-1 against teams above .500…..and has a 28 point loss to one of those teams.
The transitive property is a mathematical property not a college football property. Upsets happen. Who’s to say that A&M didn’t upset UF?? I think the game was an upset. I think this because I can watch multiple games of multiple teams across a season and not look at one head to head game and let that performance be the end of it.
I don’t see anyone saying it’s the end all be all of the resume but it is part of it. That head to head win gives TAMU the best win between the two teams…
You keep harping on the loss to Bama but guess what happened the very next week? They beat Florida…
I’m not going to reply to this anymore as we’re just going in a circle.
This article is poison. I feel like I’ve seen enough fellow gator fans lose their minds like our gators are going to steam-roll everyone, beat Alabama, and then destroy the playoffs.
GATORNATION: It’s fun to be excited again but holy F. Please calm down. Stop trying to out-achieve the UGA crazies that talked trash for the last 3 years.
I feel pretty good about the team’s calmness and focus on the next opponent. And from the moment he ran out on the field to takeover for Feleipe in Lexington last year, Trask has been all about calmness under pressure and focus on the task at hand.
I am with you 100%! I’m not talking about the players, esp Trask. I mean our fans.
To be the man, you have to beat the man, and Georgia is not the man.
Yes, currently the man is LSU…
And from the looks of it Notre dame will be the next man.
Got hymn.
LSU is not currently the man… They were the champions last year…
They currently have a losing record. Is LSU going to give up lasts years title to the teams that already beat them this year?
Quick fact for all those reading this
Its been 744 days since Alabama has beaten LSU.
How long has it been since LSU has won a game?
Quick note for those reading…
So let’s see… LSU has a losing season, their basketball and football program is going to get drug through the mud by the NCAA for cheating and now they’re getting hit with title IX accusations….
Yeah LSU isn’t worrying anybody atm… Well that’s not true. Parents may be worried about their daughters currently attending LSU…
Matt Hayes claims “Texas A&M’s College Football Playoff hopes – because that’s what this ranking argument is about.” Is that true? To me the most current ranking should be about how teams have played on the field up to this point, not a projection of how it MIGHT end up.
I think Trask to the Pats would be a good combo. Seems like he could thrive in a belichik system.
Hey Florida writer, in the words of Aerosmith… dream on!
I actually sing this too my dogs when they beg for food. Eventually, they “dream until your dreams come true” and they catch me in good spirits after drinking good spirits.
Bama won’t treat Florida like you treat your dogs.
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