1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

To understand how we arrived at this state of college football expansion uncertainty, we must first return to where it began.

To of all places, the presidents of Penn State and Washington State.

Not SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, or Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren. This was presidential level movement.

It was June of 2019 when Eric Barron (Penn State) and Kirk Schulz (Washington State) convinced their presidential colleagues to develop an exploration committee into expanding the 4-team College Football Playoff.

Two seasons earlier in 2016, Penn State won the Big Ten and beat Ohio State but was left out of the 4-team Playoff while Ohio State was selected. And by 2019, the Pac-12 had only 2 participants in the first 5 Playoffs.

So the Playoff management committee (of which every FBS conference is represented) chose a 4-person working group to come up with new Playoff formats: Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick and Sankey.

Understand this important fact: That the working group didn’t include a Big Ten, Pac-12 or ACC representative wasn’t a slight. The management committee, of which the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 are part of, chose the working group.

We pause here to soak in the irony: Presidents from the 2 conferences interested most in expansion were 2 of the conferences that — 2 years later — scuttled Playoff expansion.

But it goes much deeper than that — and with significantly damaging wounds and divisions.

“It got to the point,” one industry source said told SDS, “where not one person in those (Playoff) discussions trusted the other.”

Only a year earlier in 2020, in the middle of a global pandemic, the Power 5 conferences were trying to come up with a way to play nonconference games between one another. Multiple sources told SDS that during a conference call, Warren — then the new Big Ten commissioner — stated that the Big Ten had to “lead during this time” and pulled out of the conversations for nonconference games.

Not long after, the Big Ten declared it wouldn’t play a 2020 fall football season and began floating the idea of “spring football” — where student-athletes would play 2 seasons in 9 months.

Meanwhile, the SEC, ACC and Big 12 pressed forward, extending the start of the season to late September and allowing their respective medical professionals to find a path to play.

They were vilified as reckless and radical; the Big Ten was praised for its groundbreaking leadership that placed lives over money.

One week before the SEC, ACC and Big 12 were to begin play in the 2020 season, the Big Ten announced its “return to play” policy after public bickering from member institutions underscored the dysfunctional and disconnected leadership.

The fracture and distrust among the Power 5 conferences already was fermenting. It took one move less than a year later for it to explode.

2. The Playoff reveal

In June of 2021 — 2 years after the Playoff management committee asked for a new format — the working group proposed a 12-team Playoff. Remember, everybody favored expansion. The committee’s task was to build a road map.

The format: the 6 highest-ranked conference champions — which would guarantee Group of 5 access — and 6 at-large teams would complete the bracket. Quarterfinals and semifinals would be played within the bowl structure, and the championship game would again be a standalone event.

It was unanimously supported by the management committee, the 10 FBS conferences and Notre Dame (because no format change would ever have been released without unanimous support), and the process was all but rubber-stamped.

But a strange thing happened along the way to a new era: Texas and Oklahoma got tired of the Big 12 again.

A decade after deciding to leave for the Pac-12 before an 11th-hour save of the Big 12 by ESPN and Fox, Texas and Oklahoma decided to go again — this time to the SEC. More money, more stability.

The story broke in the middle of SEC Media Days last July, and all hell broke loose.

3. The birth of the Alliance

It didn’t take long for Bowlsby to insinuate nefarious maneuvering by — take your pick — the SEC, ESPN, Texas and Oklahoma.

The Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC followed with various representatives claiming — take your pick — the SEC pursued Texas and Oklahoma, Sankey pushed the Playoff to 12 teams because he knew all along that Texas and OU were on the way, there was a competitive imbalance now in college football, and ESPN was at the center of it all because it had just signed a massive, billion-dollar deal to be the exclusive home of all things SEC — and needed two more blue-blood programs to make the deal work.

A month earlier, everyone was happy, holding hands and singing Playoff expansion kumbaya. Now the very conferences that 2 years earlier asked for the working group to find a new structure, were saying the Playoff couldn’t move forward.

So the Big Ten, desperate to slow the behemoth SEC, came up with a plan and somehow sold it to the Pac-12 and ACC: The Big Ten was a pauper, just like the Pac-12 and ACC.

They, too, were pushed into a position of weakness by the big, bad SEC — never mind the fact that the Big Ten’s media rights deal was worth as much or more as the SEC. They had to form an “Alliance” to keep the SEC bully at bay — and keep it from gaining multiple at-large spots in the expanded Playoff.

And everyone bought it.

The new “Alliance” argued that the three current commissioners (Pac-12’s George Kliavkoff, ACC’s Jim Phillips and Warren) were not part of the original agreement to expand the Playoff — despite the fact that a Big Ten president and a Pac-12 president pushed the management committee to come up with an expanded format, and the exploration committee kept everyone from the presidential to administration level in the loop.

A few months later the expanded Playoff died on the vine, 2 years of work and countless iterations — and an estimated $1.2 billion annual payday — wasted amid the fog of bickering and backstabbing.

4. The B1G lie

It took merely 7 months for the Big Ten to reveal the purpose of the Alliance all along: a simple diversion tactic.

As soon as Texas and OU asked to join the SEC, one industry source told SDS that the Big Ten set its sights on USC and Notre Dame, the only remaining schools that could counter the impact of Texas and OU.

When it became clear Notre Dame still wasn’t ready to relinquish its independent status — and still wanted to test the open market for its new media rights deal (current NBC deal is through 2025) — the Big Ten then moved to corner the No. 2 television market in the nation, Los Angeles.

Nearly a year from the blockbuster move of Texas and OU to the SEC, the Big Ten announced it had accepted USC and UCLA as its newest members. Soon after, Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith — one of the nation’s most powerful administrators and a Notre Dame alum — publicly declared that if Notre Dame is interested in joining a conference, he hoped it would be the Big Ten.

Translation: The Big Ten isn’t done yet.

That very public play for the last major move (free of legal hurdles) on the expansion chessboard, moved the Big Ten’s other “partner” into a vulnerable position. The ACC now has to worry about member institutions finding legal ways to escape for the SEC.

The Pac-12, which already lost its most powerful television brands — and nearly half of its potential media rights bargaining power — now must deal with more uncertainty. An industry source told SDS that Washington, Oregon, Stanford and California won’t sign any new media rights deal (the conference is currently in an exclusive negotiation window with ESPN and Fox) until the Big Ten makes a public decision on future expansion.

Meanwhile, the Big 12 is interested in Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado.

All of this because the Big Ten believed the SEC knew it was inviting Texas and Oklahoma and steered the Playoff expansion committee to 12 teams to improve its postseason strength — despite Penn State president Eric Barron 2 years earlier sitting at the forefront of Playoff expansion.

Sankey and the presidents of Texas and Oklahoma say the schools approached the SEC, not the other way around. They also claim every other Power 5 conference would’ve accepted Texas and Oklahoma, if given the option.

But that meant little to the Big Ten, which covertly moved toward expansion, anyway.

Two days prior to the USC/UCLA news breaking, Kliavkoff tweeted about the 50th anniversary of Title IX — and how the Pac-12 was honored to celebrate the event with its partners in the Big Ten and ACC.

Kliavkoff was vacationing in Montana when he found out one of his partners stabbed him in the back.

The Weekly Five

Five ways expansion ends.

1. The SEC and Big Ten decide to stay at 16 teams, and Notre Dame stays independent. The Pac-12 stays at 10 teams.

2. The Big Ten adds Notre Dame and Stanford, the Pac-12 adds San Diego State. ACC teams begin to explore legal options to leave.

3. The Big Ten expands (see No.2), the ACC media rights deal doesn’t hold up in court, and the SEC adds North Carolina and Florida State.

4. The Big Ten adds Notre Dame, Stanford, Washington and Oregon. The SEC adds North Carolina, FSU, Clemson and Miami.

5. The Big Ten and SEC stay at 16 teams, and the Pac-12 and ACC form a television alliance.

6. Your tape is your résumé

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Auburn DL Colby Wooden.

“He jumped on my radar late last year when he moved from the inside. He was overmatched there, and that new staff made the right move to the edge. Really athletic guy with a lot of power and length. He’s definitely more of an edge. He’s active and powerful and has a good get-off. That length is a problem for offenses, and he’s still raw and learning the position. This year will be critical for his growth.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s SEC Power Poll, and one big thing: The most indispensable player (excluding quarterbacks).

1. Georgia: OLB Nolan Smith. New faces, new expectations on defense, and the steady leadership of Smith.

2. Alabama: LT Tyler Steen: Protecting QB Bryce Young is everything.

3. Texas A&M: TB Devon Achane: 154 touches (rush, receive) for 1,171 yards in 2021, and a 7.6 average yards per touch.

4. Kentucky: LT Kiyaunta Goodwin: 5-star recruit must beat out Deondre Buford, then protect the blind side of QB Will Levis.

5. Arkansas: WR Jadon Haselwood: A wildly overlooked yet critical signing from the portal. A potential elite SEC receiver.

6. LSU: DT Maason Smith: A mammoth force in the middle anchoring a rebuilt defense.

7. Ole Miss: TE Michael Trigg: Athletic USC transfer will be a matchup problem for SEC defenses — no matter who plays QB for Rebels.

8. Mississippi State: CB Decamerion Richardson. Had the best spring of any player on defense, and could be a lockdown corner with his size (6-2, 195) and athleticism.

9. Tennessee: TB Jabari Small: Watch how much better the offense flows when the running game goes exclusively through Small (see: Music City Bowl).

10. South Carolina: DT Zacch Pickens: The Gamecocks gave up 175 yards rushing per game in 2021. That has to change — and it has to begin with the uber-talented Pickens.

11. Florida: Edge Brenton Cox: Has shown flashes for 2 seasons. Will be more of a disrupter (and sack leader) this season.

12. Auburn: TB Tank Bigsby: The offense is better, more complete, when Bigsby gets 20-plus carries and sets the tone.

13. Missouri: K Harrison Mevis. A kicker? Yes, a kicker. When you can score on anyone and can’t stop anyone, the kicker who hit 64-of-66 kicks (23-of-25 FGs) is everything.

14. Vanderbilt: LB Anfernee Orji: Vandy struggles mightily on defense, but Orji is one of the best linebackers in the SEC.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: If the SEC expands, what will be the process of determining which teams to take? — Jane David, St. Louis.

Jane:

The first step is convincing Florida of the good of the greater whole. That doesn’t mean Florida, the biggest sports brand in the SEC, hasn’t been a team player. It has. But it’s clear if the SEC is forced into further expansion by Big Ten moves, Florida State and Miami are prime targets.

A handful of member institutions a decade ago wanted Florida State instead of Missouri in the last expansion, but it never got past Florida. And why would it? You can bet South Carolina, too, would fight against Clemson entering the league.

If the SEC expands, Florida will eventually do what’s best for the SEC and agree to FSU. The SEC also wants in the state of North Carolina — North Carolina and Duke were former commissioner Mike Slive’s next targets in the last expansion process — and the Tar Heels would be a prime target.

If the move is 4 teams, it’s 2 spots for 3 teams: Clemson, Miami and Virginia, which like the state of North Carolina, is open territory.

9. Numbers

104. Don’t let anyone convince you Alabama will simply plug-and-play at offensive line and get better. You don’t give up 41 sacks and allow an SEC-worst 104 tackles for loss and not have it catch up to you. That was with Evan Neal, the best offensive lineman on the team (and college football).

The Tide will start the season with their best 5, which might mean preseason All-SEC G Emil Ekiyor Jr. moving outside. Alabama needs 5-star JC Latham, the No. 1 OT in the 2021 recruiting class, to win a job outside (either side) and Steen (who enrolled after spring practice) to do the same, keeping Ekiyor at his dominant guard position and solidifying the line.

10. Quote to note

Alabama coach Nick Saban: ‘Student-athletes need some protection from unfair NIL deals. You could have a player — and we’ve had this happen to us — he thinks he has signed one thing and he signed something else that gives up his freedom of choice in the future as to who represents him.”