Louisville vs. Florida State is expected to be the first ACC Championship Game with College Football Playoff implications since 2020.

With a win, Florida State would be 13-0 and likely have a spot in the CFP semifinals for the first time since 2014. Louisville isn’t playing for a CFP berth, but the Cardinals could clinch a New Year’s 6 bowl berth with a win over the Seminoles on Saturday.

Both of these teams have holes in their statistical profiles, but they also have areas where they excel. Let’s examine some betting trends, advanced stats and other useful info about these teams:

Louisville vs. Florida State Betting Lines

Spread: Florida State -1 (DraftKings)

Total: Over/under 47.5 points (DraftKings)

Check out these top sports betting apps to get in on the action ahead of Saturday’s ACC Championship Game.

This line settled at Florida State -5.5 and with the total at 53 points on Sunday at DraftKings. The movement was a bit of a mystery until ESPN’s David Hale reported on Friday that Tate Rodemaker’s status for this game is “in doubt” after he took a hard hit in FSU’s game vs. Florida last week. He returned to the game, but is reportedly questionable for the ACC Championship Game.

If Rodemaker can’t go, expect true freshman Brock Glenn to get the start. Glenn played briefly on Saturday vs. Florida while Rodemaker was checked out by medical personnel. FSU’s coaching staff seems to trust him — they called a pass (which fell incomplete) on the first play after Rodemaker went down. Glenn is 2-for-4 for 35 yards this season. He also has 6 rushes for 37 yards and 1 touchdown. All of his passing yardage came in FSU’s win over North Alabama in garbage time.

Betting trends to know for Louisville

  • Louisville is 6-5-1 against the spread this season
  • The over is 6-6 in Louisville games this season
  • Louisville is 2-0 against the spread as the underdog this season
    • The Cardinals won both games outright (against Miami and Notre Dame)
  • Louisville is 1-3-1 against the spread away from home this season

Louisville was dominant against the spread at home this season until November. The Cardinals have always been a different team on the road, however. They lost to Pitt and played close games on the road against Indiana, Georgia Tech and NC State (before the Wolfpack turned their season around). That, coupled with Louisville’s late-November swoon, is something to be concerned about as you evaluate Jeff Brohm’s team. 

Betting trends to know for Florida State

  • Florida State is 7-5 against the spread this season
    • FSU covered last weekend against Florida in Tate Rodemaker’s first start of the year
  • The over is 7-5 in Florida State games this season
    • The under has cashed in 3 of FSU’s last 4 games
  • Florida State is 6-5 against the spread as the favorite this season
    • The only time FSU has been an underdog this season was against LSU in Week 1
  • Florida State is 2-0 against the spread when favored by less than a touchdown this season

There are a few positive trends with Florida State this season, although nothing that looks too advantageous. It is impressive that Florida State was able to cover on the road in Gainesville last weekend even after falling behind 12-0 in the first half. FSU’s coaching staff has done a tremendous job of making second-half adjustments this season and that seems to be continuing even without Jordan Travis to lead the offense.

Résumé rankings

Via ESPN’s Football Power Index: 

  • Louisville strength of schedule: 14th
  • Florida State strength of schedule: 56th

 

  • Louisville strength of record: 68th
  • Florida State strength of record: 3rd

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the primary tool referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful”:

  • 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
  • 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
  • 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing Success Rate

  • Louisville rushing offense success rate: 50% (88th percentile)
  • Florida State rushing defense success rate: 39% (75th percentile)

This should be a very fun matchup. Florida State’s defense is better against the pass than it is the run, but the Noles are still capable of making big stops on the ground. Louisville’s rushing offense has been great this season, led mostly by Jawhar Jordan out of the backfield. However, the Cardinals are coming off of one of their worst rushing performances of the season vs. Kentucky. The Wildcats don’t have a particularly special rush defense (their success rate is slightly worse than FSU’s on the season) so that is a bit worrisome for Louisville going into the ACC Championship Game. 

  • Florida State rushing offense success rate: 40% (18th percentile)
  • Louisville rushing defense success rate: 36% (87th percentile)

There seems to be a huge discrepancy between how good Florida State’s rushing offense actually is and how good it’s perceived to be. Trey Benson and Lawrence Toafili are both widely regarded as a top running back tandem, but the reality is that they haven’t been very efficient on a down-to-down basis in 2023. However, despite that being the case, Benson still averages over 6 yards per carry. Explosive plays are a big reason why. 

FSU’s offense in the 92nd percentile in explosiveness (defined by CollegeFootballData.com as the average PPA on all successful plays). We saw this play out last week when FSU played Florida. In that game, the Noles posted a rushing offense success rate of only 26% but Trey Benson still had 95 yards on 19 carries because of 4 rushes of 10+ yards and 2 rushes of 30+ yards. That poses an interesting matchup with Louisville’s defense, which is in the 87th percentile in rush defense success rate but in the 14th percentile in defensive explosiveness.

Passing Success Rate

  • Louisville passing offense success rate: 50% (92nd percentile)
  • Florida State passing defense success rate: 31% (100th percentile)

Jack Plummer, take a bow. Not many would have predicted Louisville would be in the 92nd percentile for passing success rate after 12 games, but here it is. Plummer actually leads the ACC in passer efficiency rating this season — above Jordan Travis, Drake Maye and every other qualified ACC passer.

FSU’s defense has been stout against the pass, however. Florida State has held its opponents to under 105 passing yards in 5 different games this season. The only team to complete more than 60% of its passes vs. FSU in 2023 was Clemson. The Noles also have more interceptions (9) than passing touchdowns allowed (8) this year. This figures to be a fascinating matchup between two elite units. 

  • Florida State passing offense success rate: 46% (76th percentile)
  • Louisville pass defense success rate: 36% (89th percentile)

It’s tough to even break this matchup down given how little we know about Florida State’s passing offense in its current state. Prior to the Travis injury, FSU’s passing offense was borderline elite when you factor in the explosive-play capabilities of Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. With Rodemaker or Glenn under center, there’s not much certainty at all here.

Havoc rate

A havoc play is defined as a play where the defense records a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass breakup.

For defenses, a higher havoc rate is good. Offensively, havoc rates are presented as what the offense allowed the defense to create. On that side of the ball, the lower the havoc rate, the better it is for your offense.

Here’s a breakdown of this matchup:

  • Louisville offensive havoc rate: 15% (65th percentile)
  • Florida State defensive havoc rate: 22% (96th percentile)

Havoc is a primary reason why Florida State’s defense has been so effective this season. FSU leads the ACC in passes defended and sacks and is toward the top of the league in tackles for loss as well. Jared Verse is the name everyone knows, but Patrick Payton, Joshua Farmer and Braden Fiske are all forces on the defensive line as well. 

  • Florida State offensive havoc rate: 15% (61st percentile)
  • Louisville defensive havoc rate: 20% (91st percentile)

Florida State has only lost 5 turnovers all season — 8 fewer than the next-closest ACC team. It will be crucial that Rodemaker (or Glenn) continues to take care of the ball — and avoids negative plays — against Louisville on Saturday night.

Louisville doesn’t have one particular strength when it comes to havoc, but is well balanced in that regard. With Rodemaker or Glenn under center, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Louisville’s defense bring pressure and try to rattle the backup QB on a big stage. Louisville has 30 sacks and 76 tackles for loss so far this year.

Points per opportunity

A scoring “opportunity” is defined as a possession in which the offense has moved the ball beyond the opponents’ 40-yard line. This stat measures how effective a team is at cashing on its scoring chances — or preventing them from their opponents.

  • Louisville points scored per opportunity: 4.07 (60th percentile)
  • Florida State points allowed per opportunity: 3.1 (87th percentile)

Florida State has conceded a field goal on 31.43% of its defensive red zone possessions this season, which is the third-highest mark among all ACC teams. The Noles have also given up just 16 red zone touchdowns all season, which is also the third-best mark in the conference. Offensively, Louisville will have to be a bit more ruthless in the red zone. The Cardinals rank 10th in the ACC in red zone scoring percentage. 

  • Florida State points scored per opportunity: 4.73 (88th percentile)
  • Louisville points allowed per opportunity: 3.98 (37th percentile)

Florida State’s offense has been great in the red zone this season, which shouldn’t be a surprise given its caliber of offensive playmakers. The Noles have scored on 89% of their red zone possessions this year, which tops the ACC. FSU hasn’t been great on 3rd down this season (40.52%) which has led the Noles to kick 12 red zone field goals — a few too many to be ideal.

Louisville’s red zone defense is confounding. The Cardinals allow 3.98 points per opportunity, which is in the 37th percentile nationally. And yet they lead the ACC with a defensive red zone score rate of 70.83%. The problem seems to be that Louisville doesn’t force many field goals. Its opponents have only made 2 red zone field goals all season, which is the lowest red zone FG total in the country in 2023. If Louisville can force a couple of red zone field goals out of Florida State, it could flip the script on this particular matchup disadvantage.

Tracking efficiency 

ESPN FPI

  • Louisville offense: 22nd
  • Louisville defense: 22nd
  • Louisville special teams: 98th 

 

  • Florida State offense: 20th
  • Florida State defense: 9th
  • Florida State special teams: 25th 

ESPN SP+ 

  • Louisville offense: 32nd
  • Louisville defense: 31st
  • Louisville special teams: 72nd

 

  • Florida State offense: 10th
  • Florida State defense: 9th
  • Florida State special teams: 6th 

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story are from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Betting trends are via the Sports Betting Dime database.