Monday Down South: Playoff chaos arrives on schedule, and the SEC is poised to exploit it
Every year, there’s a point around the middle of the regular season when a hazy Playoff picture begins to emerge from the ether and the eventual field seems like a foregone conclusion. And every year, as sure as the weather turns and the days get shorter, there’s a pivotal weekend that blows a new path through the chalk.
Saturday was one of those days.
By itself, Kansas State’s 48-41 stunner over Oklahoma (a more decisive win than the score indicates) was the season’s first real game-changer: The Sooners aren’t the first Playoff front-runner to lose, or even to be ambushed by an unranked team, but they are the first to be demoted from the list of teams that clearly control their fate.
Meanwhile, point-of-no-return losses by Wisconsin, Auburn and Notre Dame also thinned the herd, leaving only a dozen plausible contenders as the season hits the stretch run – almost all of whom, with the lone exception of Clemson, still have at least 1 game on deck against one of the others.
The most obvious beneficiary of Oklahoma’s faceplant is the SEC.
As long as Oklahoma, Clemson and Ohio State remained undefeated, the league stood no chance of getting 2 teams in the field. With the Sooners’ loss, though, that door is now wide open. In fact, considering the outlook for the handful of outfits that still control their own fate, a 2nd SEC team in the Final Four might be more likely than not:
IN CONTROL OF DESTINY (WIN AND IN)
- ACC: Clemson (8-0)
- Big Ten: Ohio State (8-0) … Penn State (8-0) … Minnesota (8-0)
- Big 12: Baylor (7-0)
- SEC: Alabama (8-0) … LSU (8-0) … Florida (7-1) … Georgia (6-1)
STILL ALIVE (NEED HELP)
- Big 12: Oklahoma (7-1)
- Pac-12: Oregon (7-1) … Utah (7-1)
- SEC: Alabama/LSU loser
How many of those teams can realistically afford a loss over the next month? Not Clemson, which needs to run the table against a very meh schedule. (It doesn’t reflect on the defending champs that the rest of the ACC is down as long as the Tigers are taking care of business, but if résumés come into play, their best win is either Texas A&M, which is now unranked, or Wake Forest.) Not Minnesota or Baylor, both of which will almost certainly be taking at least one L in the coming weeks and lack the national rep to overcome it.
Not Florida or Georgia, one of which will be eliminated this weekend in the Cocktail Party while the winner must run the table through the SEC title game. And not Ohio State or Penn State, barring a very specific set of dominoes falling exactly the right way. For now, the assumption is that the winner of Buckeyes-Nittany Lions on Nov. 23 is the Big Ten’s standard-bearer and the loser will need a lot of help.
That leaves 2: Alabama and LSU, the top 2 teams in the AP poll and the only ones in position to absorb a loss at this point in the season.
One of them, of course, will be inflicting that loss on the other on Nov. 9, in one of the biggest games of the decade for reasons that go far beyond the SEC West standings and the immediate Playoff pecking order. But assuming that Baylor is not really a threat to actually go 13-0 – a safe assumption, given that the Bears still have to play Oklahoma (possibly twice) and have just a 2.1 percent chance of running the table, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index – the loser of that game will still be in prime position to make the cut at 11-1, even at the expense of 1-loss champions from the Big 12 and Pac-12.
There’s just 1 obvious rub in that scenario, which also stands to benefit the SEC: A potential upset by the East Division champ (Georgia/Florida) over the West (Bama/LSU) in the conference title game. If both teams in Atlanta go before the Playoff committee with 12-1 records, odds are both will be rewarded with a bid – likely at the direct expense of the Bama/LSU loser.
Either way, from the current vantage point at the end of October, the opportunity is ripe for the SEC to send 2 teams to the dance. Baylor could conceivably spoil that by defying the odds and running the table; Auburn or someone else (Texas A&M?) could throw a wrench into the timeline by pulling a November upset over one of the teams bound for Atlanta, unleashing true chaos.
As it stands, though, the rough-draft pecking order over the next 6 weeks looks something like this:
1. SEC champ (Bama/LSU/Georgia/Florida)
2. Undefeated Big Ten champ (Ohio State/Penn State/Minnesota)
3. Clemson (13-0)
4. Baylor (13-0)
5. Bama/LSU winner (12-1, loss in SECCG)
6. Bama/LSU loser (11-1)
7. Oklahoma (12-1, Big 12 champ)
8. 1-loss Big Ten champ (Ohio State/Penn State)
9. 1-loss Pac-12 champ (Oregon/Utah)
10. Clemson (12-1, ACC champ)
11. 2-loss SEC champ (Georgia/Florida)
Can it get weirder than any of the contingencies imagined so far? It’s college football, so yes. It would almost be disappointing if it didn’t. Weird enough to limit the SEC’s Playoff presence to the conference champ? That looks like it’s going to take some doing.
Notebook
Around the conference.
LSU 23, Auburn 20
LSU’s offense got the job done, eventually. But on a sloppy, overcast day that had the feel of a typical LSU-Auburn slugfest the defense was the difference in its best game of the season: 10 of Auburn’s 15 possessions ended in punts, including 5 3-and-outs, and both of the Tigers’ touchdown drives began in LSU territory.
Auburn opened the second half by breaking its biggest gain of the season, a 70-yard run by freshman RB D.J. Williams, on its first play, called timeout before its next play and disappeared into a shell for the next hour as LSU turned a 13-10 deficit into a 23-13 edge.
That’s a team effort, beginning with a front line that clamped down against the run after halftime and kept Bo Nix permanently on edge in the pocket. As usual, though, it was impossible not to be drawn to LSU’s freaky freshman cornerback, Derek Stingley Jr., who (like Nix) made his share of rookie mistakes, but (unlike Nix) continued to justify his 5-star recruiting hype with room to spare.
Not that the mistakes weren’t costly: Stingley’s fumble on a punt return set up Auburn’s first short-field touchdown in the first half, and he was flagged twice for pass interference against Nix’s go-to target, Seth Williams, in the second.
But again, as usual, Stingley won a lot more in coverage than he lost, allowing just 2 receptions on 10 targets, according to the film eaters at Pro Football Focus, 1 was an absurd sideline catch by Williams on a ball that Nix was apparently trying to throw away under heavy pressure late in the game. And he stole the show for the umpteenth time this season on an acrobatic, jump-ball interception that (a) ended an Auburn scoring threat just before the half, preserving a 10-10 tie at the break, and (b) highlighted his instincts, length, and uncanny ball skills against one of the premiere jump-ball receivers in the country:
This one belonged to Derek Stingley. pic.twitter.com/fD0yOtfIho
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 26, 2019
That is ridiculous — yet somehow, for this kid, also kind of routine. (It’s easy to see why Ed Orgeron promised Stingley’s family he’ll get a chance to play wide receiver before he leaves campus, an intriguing/frightening proposition.)
LSU has had more than its share of elite, NFL-ready corners over the years, one of whom, Kristian Fulton, is holding his own opposite Stingley right now. None of them, though, have leapt off the screen in quite the same way or established their rep as a lockdown cover man against top competition quite as early in their careers; barely 2 months into his, Stingley leads the SEC in passes defended, boasts the game-clinching INT against Florida, was a ubiquitous pick on mid-season All-America teams, and only keeps giving the folks who vote for that sort of thing more reasons to cast those votes for him. Once he actually figures out what he’s doing on an every-down basis it’s going to be something to behold.
Alabama 48, Arkansas 7
If you didn’t bother tuning in for an inevitable beatdown, well, you missed an inevitable beatdown and not much else. Garbage time did give us the gift of former Tide QB turned ESPN broadcaster Greg McElroy recounting the time he played so badly Nick Saban insisted he get checked for a concussion even though he didn’t have one …
Greg McElroy said Nick Saban had him checked for a concussion because of how poorly he was playing LMAOOOOOOO!pic.twitter.com/JgtNkrwsQx
— I'M SEEING GHOSTS (@FTBeard11) October 27, 2019
… so there’s always that. Arkansas is a very bad team.
On the field, the only intrigue involved the performance of Alabama’s backup quarterback, Mac Jones, in his first career start in place of Tua Tagovailoa, and early returns were encouraging: Jones finished 18-of-22 for 235 yards with 3 TDs, including a 40-yard, Tua-esque rainbow to Jerry Jeudy to close out the scoring early in the 3rd quarter, and generally gave off the kind of competent, composed vibes you’d expect from Bama’s likely 2020 starter against the worst defense in the conference. If it was a glimpse of the future, fine — just as long as it’s a little further into the future than 2 weeks from now against LSU.
Kentucky 29, Missouri 7
Is he completing passes with any kind of consistency? No. Are opposing secondaries concerned about his downfield arm strength? Not really. Does he have a future at the position? Not even close. Still, 3 weeks after Lynn Bowden Jr. was conscripted into the role it’s time to retire the “all-purpose” label, declare the experiment a success, and start referring to him by what he is: Kentucky’s full-time starting quarterback.
Hot damn, Lynn Bowden!!! pic.twitter.com/TVTMQsGL12
— Scott Charlton (@Scott_Charlton) October 27, 2019
If he’s not officially QB1 yet after accounting for 258 yards and 2 TDs on Saturday night, it’s only a matter of time. Bowden’s emergence behind center — in tandem with a rapidly improving defense — has saved what was shaping up to be a lost season. The opening-day starter, 2018 incumbent Terry Wilson, went down with a season-ending injury in Week 2. The top backup, grad transfer Sawyer Smith, went 0-3 as a starter to close September, including a pair of dismal outings at Mississippi State and South Carolina in which Smith was visibly limited by a sore shoulder. Enter Bowden: With their most dynamic athlete at the controls, the Wildcats have won 2 of their past 3 and found an identity in the process that could carry them to a winning record.
To describe that identity as “1-dimensional” would be putting it mildly. Bowden turned in a respectable, 7-of-11 effort through the air in his first start, a 24-20 win over Arkansas, but is just 5-of-22 over the past 2 weeks for 71 yards, the majority of that output coming on one play, a 43-yard bomb on Saturday night that set up Kentucky’s first touchdown. (In his defense, both games were played in atrocious weather that strongly discouraged passing in any case.) But in the relevant dimension Bowden has been electric: In his 3 starts alone, he has run for 509 yards on 8.5 per carry (not including sacks), all of it out coming from what amounts to an on-the-fly Wildcat role.
Against Missouri — an above-average defense with 2 full weeks’ worth of film on the all-Bowden playbook — he accounted for 204 of Kentucky’s 297 rushing yards with TD runs covering 33 yards and 10 yards, respectively. For the season, he leads the SEC in runs of 20 yards or more, with 9.
Zooming out, Bowden leads the league as well with 1,199 all-purpose yards as a rusher, receiver and return man, making him the only SEC player to crack the 1,000-yard mark in that category.
If Mizzou couldn’t figure out how to stop him, it’s not a given that any of the remaining defenses on the schedule will, either. Kentucky is the statistical favorite in each of its last 4 games, per FPI, a stretch that includes an FCS team (UT-Martin) bookended by 2 others (Vanderbilt and Louisville) that rank in the bottom 30 nationally in total defense.
At 4-4, the Wildcats only need to win 2 of those to be bowl-eligible for the 4th consecutive season; take care of business against Tennessee, which comes to Lexington in 2 weeks on the other side of an open date, and suddenly another January bowl game is on the table.
Texas A&M 49, Mississippi State 30
Joe Moorhead did not in fact hop a direct flight from College Station to Piscataway, New Jersey, in the immediate aftermath of another lopsided loss, but at the rate things are going, it would have been hard to blame him if he had.
Mississippi State fans might pony up for airfare out of their own pockets. The loss marked the Bulldogs’ first 4-game losing streak (conference or otherwise) since 2005, the nadir of the Sylvester Croom era, with all 4 of them coming by big, Croom-era margins that probably could have been worse. If that’s where the program is headed after a solid decade of respectability, the notion of Moorhead bowing out for the vacancy at Rutgers is looking less farfetched by the week.
As hopeless as it feels right now, MSU still has a fighting chance of salvaging its 10th consecutive bowl bid, the bare-minimum expectation for the program Moorhead took over from Dan Mullen. To get to 6 wins, assuming a loss to Alabama and a win over Abilene Christian, the Bulldogs will have to beat Arkansas on Saturday and Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl, a turnaround that if nothing else would buy him a little time and goodwill heading into what’s going to be a long offseason in Starkville regardless.
It’s only Year 2 in a middle-of-the-road job, but the fan base largely felt the 2018 team underachieved by going just 8-5, wasting the No. 1 scoring defense in the country on an offense that scraped the bottom of the barrel vs. decent competition; so far this year, the defense has regressed beyond the worst fears while the offense has not improved.
Moorhead has effectively acknowledged after each of the past 2 losses that he’s feeling the heat. A loss in Fayetteville against an outfit riding a 16-game conference losing streak would mark a new low and possibly the beginning of the end.
Catch of the Year of the Week: Bryan Edwards
No player has been featured in COTYOTW more often over the past 4 years than Edwards, and no catch in that span has come anywhere near the one-hander he hauled in Saturday at Tennessee:
https://twitter.com/SECNetwork/status/1188213210882674695?s=20
Mercy. Although ruled a touchdown on the field, the score was actually taken off the board on review because Edwards’ hand hit out of bounds before the ball crossed the plane of the goal line. The Gamecocks still scored on the subsequent play, but this seems like an occasion where you just go ahead and give it to him.
Superlatives
The best of the week …
1. Lynn Bowden Jr., QB, Kentucky
Bowden’s performance in the win over Missouri sealed his reputation as one of the most unique, versatile players in the college game. Whether he stays behind center over the next 4 games or returns full-time to his usual WR/KR role, he’s already a no-brainer All-American come December in the “all-purpose” slot.
2. Jauan Jennings and Marquez Callaway, WRs, Tennessee
Jennings and Callaway lit Neyland Stadium all the way up in a 41-21 win over South Carolina, torching the Gamecocks for a combined 276 yards and 3 touchdowns on 10 receptions, as well as a 65-yard punt return TD by Callaway that lit the fuse in the first half.
WR Marquez Callaway to the House ! 65 yards. 😱
Électrisant. pic.twitter.com/oHhSeKfOmG— TBP College Football (@thebluepennant) October 26, 2019
Other big plays from the seniors included a 48-yard touchdown pass to Jennings from Jarrett Guarantano in the 2nd quarter; a 57-yard bomb from Guarantano to Callaway to start the 3rd quarter; a 19-yard TD strike from Guarantano to Jennings later in the third; and a 55-yard haymaker to Callaway from backup QB J.T. Shrout just a few minutes later. The cumulative effect was the most fun the home crowd has had in Neyland Stadium in a long, loooong time, a feeling at least a few of them had to be wondering if they were ever going to experience again.
From Week 1 to Week 10, the Vols are the league’s most improved team.
3. Terrell Lewis, LB, Alabama
Lewis continued his emergence as a natural-born edge-rushing terror against Arkansas, recording an astounding 6 QB hurries in the Tide’s blowout win over Arkansas, including the pressure that led to interceptions by teammates Patrick Surtain II and Trevon Diggs, the latter turning into a pick-6 after Lewis flattened Razorbacks QB Nick Starkel.
Alabama's defense is nothing to play with 😤 pic.twitter.com/QnGPyGCfJr
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 27, 2019
Admittedly, hurries are a vague stat often subject to the whim of the official scorekeeping in a way that other, more clear-cut stats are not, but in many years of poring over box scores, I can confidently say I’ve never seen a single player credited with 6 in one game. That’s a testament to how quickly and thoroughly Lewis has asserted himself in just 3 weeks in the starting lineup, a span in which he’s racked up 8 hurries, 4 sacks and appeared in this space all 3 weeks.
4. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU. The Tigers ran 88 plays in the win over Auburn, only 42 of which involved Joe Burrow’s arm. That left plenty of opportunities for Edwards-Helaire, who took full advantage, setting career highs for touches (33) and total yards (187 – 136 rushing, 51 receiving) while occasionally turning would-be tacklers into pillars of salt in the open field:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire just did this Auburn defender really dirty #GeauxTigers pic.twitter.com/taNTq72Bdd
— Jimmy Clarke (@JimmyClarke) October 26, 2019
With 683 yards for the season, Edwards-Helaire has already exceeded last year’s total on the ground (658 yards) on 30 fewer carries. He’s well on his way to cracking 1,000.
5. Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M
Mond ripped Mississippi State’s fading defense for 310 total yards (234 passing, 76 rushing) and 5 touchdowns with 0 turnovers in A&M’s most emphatic win of the season. The Aggies hit paydirt on 7 of 10 non-half-ending possessions, racking up more points (49) than they’ve scored against an SEC opponent in regulation since the 2014 opener against South Carolina.
Honorable Mention: LSU QB Joe Burrow, who finished 23-of-42 for 321 yards with 1 TD against Auburn, adding another score as a runner. … LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase, who had a team-high 8 catches for 123 yards, his 4th 100-yard game of the season. … LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr., for reasons outlined above. … Auburn RB D.J. Williams, a true freshman, who ripped off 130 yards rushing against LSU on 10.0 per carry. … Auburn DT Derrick Brown, again the most reliably active player on the Tigers defense in Baton Rouge with 7 tackles and 2 TFLs on the afternoon. … Mississippi State RB Kylin Hill, who ran for 150 yards and 1 TD on 7.1 per carry in a losing effort at Texas A&M. … Kentucky DE Calvin Taylor Jr., who had 2 sacks and forced fumble in the Wildcats’ old-school win over Mizzou. … Alabama WR Jerry Jeudy, who hauled in 7 receptions for 103 yards against Arkansas, including 2 of Mac Jones’ 3 touchdowns. … South Carolina WR Shi Smith, who had 11 catches for 156 yards in the Gamecocks’ loss at Tennessee, about half of them coming on a 75-yard TD on the first play of the game. … And Tennessee LB Daniel Bituli, who finished with a team-high 15 tackles against South Carolina and put the game out of reach in the 4th quarter by blocking and recovering a punt for a touchdown.
* * * * *
Reminder, the scoring system for the Superlatives standings has been slightly revised: I’m awarding 8 points for the week’s top player, 6 for second, 5 for third, 4 for fourth, 3 for fifth, and 1 for honorable mention because how honorable is it really if it doesn’t come with any points? Season totals have been adjusted accordingly.
If Oklahoma beats Baylor (assuming Baylor remains a ‘strong’ opponent) and wins the Big 12, that might be enough to get them in. I think that would be enough for the committee to put them in over an additional SEC or Big 10 team. I really don’t think the committee wants to put two from any conference in the playoffs again unless they believe it’s a really clear choice, but with the way LSU and Bama look right now it’s a real possibility.
I don’t know. They don’t like bad losses, and Oklahoma was a beaten team, desperately trying to mount a late comeback.
They’ve typically valued conference championships over everything else when comparing teams with the same number of losses, and rightly so.
Not true. They’ve been wildly inconsistent on that front. If that were the case Ohio State would have been in instead of Bama in 17. And Penn State would have got in in 16.
“When comparing teams with the same number of losses” Ohio State and Penn State were both 2-loss champs. Ohio State was jumped by 1-loss Alabama and Penn State was jumped by 1-loss Ohio State.
MattyJ Ohio St had 2 losses. Bama had 1. If Ohio St had only had 1 loss they would have been in.
They weigh in on the quality of your loss as well. LSU will have one of the best losses of the one loss teams and has a legitimate chance of getting in.
yep that’s right, my bad
The ‘committee” will choose whatever enhances college FB’s revenue stream. If it was any other way, we would have a real payoff.
I agree, and I don’t mind them feeling that way. I think it’s better for college football that a conference doesn’t get multiple teams in. I’d argue that in most cases, a 1-loss conference champion almost always deserves to get in over a 1-loss non-conference champion anyway. If you aren’t the best team in your conference then you dang sure ain’t the best team in the country.
It would take a lot of guts for the committee to put a 1-loss SEC team in over OK or Oregon if they are conference champs. The outcry is already building.
Clemson is just about in. They don’t really have any decent team left. The Alabama/LSU winner is likely in. The loser is also likely in. A one loss LSU team with quality wins over Auburn and Florida would have a much stronger case than a one loss OU team. I think it will be the Ohio State or Penn State winner. The Big 10 West is on par with the MAC or Conference USA for toughness.
Clemson, Alabama, LSU, Ohio State. Not real exciting, but there it is.
Except Bama proved that’s not true in 2017. And people can get all up in arms about them getting in that year but they did the same thing Georgia did that season and lost to Auburn. Georgia simply got a mulligan for being in a different, and far less competitive, division.
No they didn’t. The only reason why Alabama got in that year was because the Big 10 and Pac-12 champs had 2 losses, leaving only the ACC champs, the SEC champs and the remaining team with the best record. Alabama (or LSU) will not get in over a 1 loss conference champ, and neither for that matter will Ohio State.
Alabama got in because there were only 3 one-loss-or-better conference champs.
He’s saying Bama proved that you can be the best team in the country and not win your conference (re: kodyaufan2). And I wouldn’t be so confident that a second SEC team will not get in. Oklahoma will only get in with one loss if Baylor remains a ‘strong’ team. If Baylor fades the Oklahoma will not only have a terrible loss but absolutely no impressive wins to counteract that.
Oklahoma probably won’t have a “terrible loss” by the end of the season. K State is 5-2 right now, and has a good chance to finish 9-3, which would be good enough for them to be ranked by selection day. 8-4 could be good enough to have them ranked as well. Losing to a ranked conference rival on the road is never a “terrible loss”.
Alabama deserved to get into the playoff that year based on the criteria the committee uses to determine who gets in. I’m not gonna argue that. I just think that it’s bad for college football that a team can win the national championship without winning their conference, and that’s why I can’t stand the current playoff system. It was supposed to be an improvement over the BCS, and it hasn’t been. The Semifinal games have been mostly unwatchable. We could have probably arrived at the same 2 teams playing for the championship in each of the past 5 years with the BCS or a similar format, but just waiting until all the regular bowl games have been played to determine which two teams play for the national championship.
My argument is that Oklahoma isn’t even sniffing the top 6 right now, and the loser of the LSU-Bama game is not going to fall out of the top 5.
That’s the only argument, really. And we’ve seen the committee keep teams like the LSU-Bama loser this year ahead of a team like Oklahoma until conference championship week. After champ week, they usually move the 1 loss conference champions ahead of the 1 loss non-champions. They just don’t count conference championships until the championship games have actually been played.
I could see Oregon getting in before Oklahoma. Oregon’s loss is not as bad as Oklahoma’s loss, and Oregon looks like the more complete team.
@bayou tiger:
We don’t know that. Auburn will lose to Alabama – giving them 3 losses – and may even lose to UGA (though the game being at Auburn gives them a shot … were the game in Athens they would have none). It is very possible that KSU ends the season 10-2 with Auburn ending it 8-4.
What Oregon has in its favor is Oklahoma going to the playoff so often without winning a game or even coming close (save against UGA in 2017 … the only time since 2003 they haven’t lost a playoff or BCS title game by at least 2 TDs). Meanwhile the last time Oregon went to the playoff they knocked off defending champs FSU.
Oklahoma’s defense really hasn’t improved and now we all know that they just can’t win by outscoring everybody. Especially with Hurts at QB, who isn’t as good in their offense as Murray and especially Mayfield were. Oklahoma not only lost to KSU but actually could have lost to KU and Texas. If OU had Mayfield or even Murray, they put up 50 on all 3 and win easily.
To unaffiliatedbutactuallyaffiliatedwithcolorado, do you watch football? I suppose OU ‘could have lost’ a game in which they carried a 42-7 lead into the fourth quarter, and maybe the could have lost a game in which they never trailed. They didnt, lsu came closer to dropping one to TX than did ok, and saying they could have lost to the jayhaw ks is like saying Bama could have lost to USM. It’s indulgent fantasy. I personally would take hurts over Murray or mayfield, but my opinion is about as credible as yours, could have lost Kansas indeed.
Stingley leads the SEC in passes defended because QBs are picking on the rookie instead of challenging the veteran Fulton. Eventually, they will stop picking on Stingley. Then what? Pick on Fulton?
Stingley gets left on an island a lot. Shows the coaches trust him more. As a QB, you have to take a shot at the 50/50 ball when it’s your best receiver and single coverage. Doesn’t matter who the defender is.
Fulton was on some preseason All-America teams. I think offenses came into the season more worried about Fulton than Stingley. And that hasn’t changed, partly because Florida was able to beat Stingley a few times. He’s not perfect. Yet.
The Committee decides what teams can get in with 1 loss. They want to see:
Clemson
Bama
Oklahoma
Georgia
Ohio State
Lots of other teams could climb back in with 1 loss but for teams like Baylor and Minnesota, they need to go undefeated to even have a chance.
There is no evidence that this is true. Everyone points to the Baylor/TCU thing in 2014 but in reality Ohio State had 12 wins that year by virtue of the Big 12 title game against Baylor and TCU’s 11. The committee explicitly said that year that Ohio State’s winning an extra game was the tie-breaker. (Just as it was in the old BCS system for LSU over USC in 2003 … LSU played 12 games to USC’s 11.) If Baylor goes 12-1 this year with wins over KSU, Texas and Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game they’re in.
Oh god, I hope Baylor gets in. What a layup win that would be for Bama (assuming they are #1). Oklahoma was easy last year, but Baylor would be blown off the map before end of 1st quarter.
You think 12-1 Baylor gets in over a 12-1 Bama or 12-1 LSU that just lost the conference championship by less than 3 to one loss UGA or one loss Florida?
I know this is nitpicky, but it irks me…
It seems like someone who makes a living as a writer would know that numbers less than ten should be spelled out, unless the number is provided as a data point.
For instance, writing “3 TD’s” is correct, as it is data. But writing “1-dimensional” and “1 was an absurd sideline catch” is amateurish and kind of makes my brain hurt.
In the author’s defense, that sideline catch hurt everyone’s brains.
Great point! I am not the most stringent grammar Nazi, but it bothers me 2.
Is that a hard rule? I know it’s AP style, but I looked in my (admittedly dated) Harbrace College Handbook which states: “Although usage varies, writers tend to spell out numbers that can be expressed in one word or two…”
Don’t forget the chaos scenario. LSU beats Bama, UGA beats Florida, Auburn wins out, UGA beats LSU in Atlanta for the SEC title. 5 SEC teams all with two losses. OSU, Clemson, Oregon, and Oklahoma make the playoffs.
My bad, LSU would still have to lose a 2nd game. “Near Chaos”
There’s still an “extreme chaos” scenario where Auburn could end up back in the playoff conversation:
In the SEC:
-Auburn wins out
-LSU wins out
-Florida beats Georgia, but loses to Missouri
-LSU beats Florida for SEC championship
Elsewhere:
-Clemson loses a game
-Oklahoma loses again but still wins Big 12
-Oregon loses again but still wins Pac-12
-Ohio St/Penn St loser also loses a second game
-All Go5 schools have a loss
At that point, we’re left with:
LSU (13-0) (SEC champ)
Ohio St/Penn St winner (13-0) (BIG 10 champ)
Clemson (12-1) (ACC champ)
Oklahoma (11-2) (Big 12 champ)
Oregon (11-2) (Pac-12 champ)
Also in contention:
Ohio St/Penn St loser (10-2)
Auburn (10-2)
Alabama (10-2)
Florida (10-3)
SEC and Big 10 champs are in. Who knows after that?
Yes if everyone continues to lose and Auburn wins out they get in lmao.
Crazier things have happened in college football, though.
Very good. Now describe the scenario where Joe Walsh is elected President in 2020. The congressman or the musician, either one.
I wish folks would stop doing this. I can understand ESPN/ABC, CBS and Fox Sports indulging in it because it keeps the ratings high. But the reality is this:
The committee never has chosen a team with a better record over a team with a worse one and it never will. They will only use quality wins/overall strength of schedule/bad losses – and in that order – for or against a team to break a tie amongst teams with the same record.
Alabama got in without winning the SEC in 2017 because in 2017 everyone else in the country had 2 losses.
Ohio State got in without winning the Big 10 in 2016 because the only other teams without a loss, Baylor and TCU, had the same record because the Big 12 didn’t have a conference championship game back then. So the committee decided – correctly – that the Buckeyes played in a stronger league with better wins and their only loss by 3 on the road to #7 Penn State.
The committtee has no record of accepting a team with more losses than another team. They especially have no record of accepting a team with fewer wins than another team. So yes, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oregon, Minnesota, Wake Forest etc. will all get picked over an 11-1 Alabama or LSU who fails to win the SEC.
ESPN, CBS and the rest of the corporate powers and the major conferences have a financial agenda to retain this delusion. It is the job of everyone else to expose and debunk the delusion.
You think the committee will pick a BIG12 Oklahoma champion with a bad loss to KState over LSU with the only loss being @Bama? Over a 1 loss Bama…maybe, because of how weak their schedule is. LSU? No way.
I completely agree! I wouldn’t think they would take a one loss Oklahoma over a one loss LSU team even if Oklahoma wins the Big 12. Not when you consider who the losses are to.
I think an LSU loss to a top 2 team is miles better than a loss to K-state. Conference championship or not.
For Oklahoma, they have to beat Baylor and hope that Baylor stays highly ranked. Then they’ve got to hope for a high ranked matchup in the conference championship. At this point, I don’t know that those things can happen so I would agree that it could be a very difficult decision for the committee.
I will agree with you when it comes to Oklahoma, less so Oregon or Baylor. And there is no way Minnesota or Wake Forest gets in over an 11-1 Alabama/LSU loser.
You are absolutely right. There is, however, one exception. Had Auburn won the SEC Championship in 2017 with two losses, they were going to be in, and probably even the 2 or 3 seed. They would have gotten in ahead of 1 loss Alabama and 1 loss Wisconsin. A little different scenario since they won head to head over Alabama, but even so, the committee has shown there are scenarios where a 2 loss team could get in over a 1 loss team. A 1 loss Big 12 champ Oklahoma would almost certainly get in over 1 loss Alabama. LSU would have a much better argument, and that would probably result in the toughest decision for the committee to date.
“The committee never has chosen a team with a better record over a team with a worse one and it never will.”
I dare you to stand in downtown Orlando and say that to passersby.
2016??? TCU and Baylor combined for a 13-13 in a year where Baylor could have gone undefeated and got left out on principle
EssentialLY, you know nothing, fifth down.
I just wanna day I love u guys for believing in me and supporting my homosexuality. But also u guys are soooo cute yayyy!!!!!! U beautiful young boys I wanna eat u up
Dude go away gay head. We MUST STOP THE GAYS beahahahahahha GO TRUMP 2020
Moron. You’re the dumbest troll here.
What u talking about I was putting s gay man in his place
Consider this scenario:
Florida wins out and finishes the season at 11-1. Alabama wins out and finishes 12-0. LSU wins out except for the loss to Alabama and finishes 11-1. Then the Gators win in Atlanta.
It seems likely that two of these teams are in, but who is out? You have three teams with a loss each, and each is 1-1 against the other two. Florida would seem to have one negative in that they played to FCS schools, but could the committee really bump a conference champion in favor of two other schools in the same conference? LSU would have no division title, but a win against Florida. Georgia winning out instead of Florida is pretty much the same, except that the Dawgs don’t have the loss to LSU — but they do have the loss to SC.
If there is only one undefeated school in the P5, would the committee risk the wrath of the rest of the country and put three SEC schools in?
Ultimately, it’s a no-win scenario for the committee. Yeah, yeah, I already hear you saying that this proves we need an 8-team playoff, but that won’t do any good this year.