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SEC Football

Monday Down South: The 3rd Annual SEC Postseason Vibes Index

Matt Hinton

By Matt Hinton

Published:


Takeaways, trends and technicalities from Rivalry Week in the SEC.

Well, that flew by, didn’t it? Although there’s plenty of football left to be played over the coming weeks, and plenty of conclusions left to draw from it, for all but a handful of teams with Playoff ambitions, the relevant portion of the 2024 season is in the books and 2025 commands their full attention. The postseason news cycle is revving up: Coaches are on the move, recruiting is in the home stretch ahead of the Wednesday’s signing period, and the transfer portal is filling up fast. Who has time to, like, reflect?

So, while the headlines march on, the regular-season finale of Monday Down South is devoted to doing just that: Taking stock of each SEC outfit’s progress and prospects at the end of what was, for most of them, a tumultuous year. In contrast to the usual stat-driven outlook in this space, teams are categorized here strictly by vibes, based on their relative expectations coming into the season and how the season actually unfolded — not necessarily by how good it was, but by how good they feel about it as the curtain drops.

Welcome to your third annual postseason Vibes Index.

Surging

South Carolina. At midseason, the Gamecocks were the embodiment of mediocrity: 3-3, unranked and adrift. After Saturday’s dramatic, 17-14 win at Clemson, they’re riding into the postseason as one of the hottest teams in America. The win over the Tigers was Carolina’s 6th straight since mid-October, its 4th in a 5-week span over an AP-ranked opponent, and a compelling closing statement in its case for an at-large ticket to the College Football Playoff. And yes, we’ll get to the Playoff situation shortly.

Before we dive into the murk, though, let’s state the obvious: LaNorris Sellers is a confirmed dude.

Maybe it should have been obvious a lot sooner? Sellers’ upside was plain enough early in the season, even if his limitations were, too. At 6-3, 242 pounds, he instantly sets off the freak siren, boasting the kind of highlight-reel athleticism that at his size inspires lofty comparisons. His 75-yard touchdown run against LSU in Week 3 was an early, fleeting glimpse. Still, prior to an open date in Week 9, Sellers profiled as a typically raw, turnover-prone underclassman whose potential at that point far outstripped his production. Since, he’s emerged as a full-blown star who is still only scratching the surface.

Don’t just go by the record: For the month of November, Sellers ranked No. 2 nationally in total offense and pass efficiency, and No. 1 in total touchdowns, with 16 (12 passing, 4 rushing). In the same span, South Carolina averaged just shy of 500 yards per game, best in the SEC and 5th in the FBS, with Sellers accounting for just shy of 70% of that total. And don’t just go by the stats, either: In the win over Clemson, he looked like the second coming of Cam Newton — how’s that for a lofty comparison? — repeatedly turning shoulda-been sacks into big, loping gains in the open field on his way to 166 rushing yards.

LaNorris Sellers two td scrambles/runs vs Clemson yesterday were incredible. He’s a game changer at the QB position! #CollegeFootball #GameCocks #CFB

Dame! (@dpnfl.bsky.social) 2024-12-01T13:20:47.914Z

Per Pro Football Focus, Sellers’ 18 missed tackles forced against the Tigers were the most in a single game this season by any FBS player not named Ashton Jeanty. With 164 passing yards, he also became the first FBS quarterback this season to rush and pass for 150+ yards in the same game, turning in a season high 92.5 Total QBR rating in the process.

Six games (1 of them vs. Wofford) is not exactly a foolproof sample size, but I’m gonna go ahead and say I don’t think this guy is turning back into a pumpkin anytime soon. Playoff or no Playoff, Sellers should be a tentative Heisman candidate heading into 2025; assuming his progress continues apace, he’ll be NFL-bound in ’26. Between its precocious quarterback, sophomore wideout Nyck Harbor and freshman edge rusher Dylan Stewart, Carolina has the high-end talent to sustain the momentum of its November upswing over the offseason and open next season as a dark-horse contender, at worst.

Now, as for the business at hand: Is this a Playoff team? Heading into the decisive Saturday, we can safely say 11 of the 12 CFP slots are accounted for, seeding TBD:

  • 4 teams from the Big Ten (Oregon, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State)
  • 3 teams from the SEC (Texas, Georgia, Tennessee)
  • Notre Dame
  • SMU (win or lose the ACC Championship Game)
  • Big 12 champ (Arizona State or Iowa State)
  • Highest-ranked Group of 5 champ (Boise State, UNLV, or Army)

That leaves 1 remaining ticket for the bubble teams, and they can kiss that ticket goodbye if Clemson earns the ACC’s automatic bid by knocking off SMU in Charlotte; assuming the CFP committee isn’t going to punish a top-10 team for losing its conference championship game by giving up its seat to a team that spent the weekend watching from home, the Mustangs would slide into the final at-large slot instead. (SMU is a narrow favorite in that game, for what it’s worth.)

Not that South Carolina fans need any extra incentive to root against Clemson, but if the Tigers win on Saturday night, the path for anyone not listed above is almost certainly closed.

If Clemson loses, the question comes down to whether the committee is impressed enough by the Gamecocks’ November surge to move them ahead of Alabama and Ole Miss — both of whom beat South Carolina earlier in the season, but are also only a week removed from their respective Week 13 flops against Oklahoma and Florida. It’s not out of the question: The committee slotted Bama, Ole Miss and Carolina 13/14/15 in last week’s rankings, and the Gamecocks’ win at Clemson (No. 12 in last week’s rankings) did a lot more for their résumé than the Tide’s and the Rebels’ wins over Auburn and Mississippi State did for theirs.

All else being equal, though, those head-to-head results from back in October still loom large, especially a 27-3 loss to Ole Miss in Columbia. Lane Kiffin is already hammering this point.

If the committee follows the traditional polls, it will leave Bama at the front of the pack; the updated AP and Coaches polls both ranked the Tide ahead of South Carolina, 10-2 Miami and Ole Miss, in that order. (Why did South Carolina jump Ole Miss in both polls but not Alabama? Not for any reason anyone would be able to articulate. But the important thing where the Playoff is concerned is simply that Bama remained at the front of the queue.)

The projection models are even more pessimistic: Carolina has a 20.9% chance of making the cut according to ESPN’s Football Power Index and less than a 1% chance according to The Athletic, both of which give better odds to Alabama and Miami (although not Ole Miss).

The Gamecocks do have answers for the head-to-head problem. For one thing, they don’t have any lapses as egregious as Ole Miss’ loss to Kentucky or Alabama’s flops against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma — in fact, they hammered Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma by 20+ points apiece. Their only remotely close call vs. an unranked opponent was way back in the opener, a 23-19 decision over Old Dominion.

But their real argument begins and ends with the fact that they’re not the same team they were in October. They turned a corner, got better as the year wore on, and accelerated across the finish line while the competition was running on fumes. South Carolina is the only team on the bubble that didn’t puke all over itself at any point over the past 6 weeks. If that counts for anything, they’ve got a shot. If not, “there’s always next year” doesn’t have such a bad ring to it.

Florida. All year, Florida heard ominous warnings about “the November gauntlet,” the brutal closing stretch against Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State where the Billy Napier administration was doomed to meet its demise. For much of the season, it seemed not just likely that Napier would fail to make it to the end of the month, but almost inevitable. Hell, after a pair of depressing losses against Miami and Texas A&M to open the season, it wasn’t obvious that he’d make it out of September.

Instead, the Gators not only survived the gauntlet, out of nowhere, they thrived. With Napier officially off the hot seat, Florida pulled off back-to-back home upsets over LSU and Ole Miss, derailing both teams’ Playoff chances in the process, and locked up a winning record on Saturday — the first in Gainesville since 2020 — by putting the worst season in modern FSU history out of its misery, 31-11, in Tallahassee.

DJ Lagway, the franchise QB recruit whose development stands to make or break Napier’s tenure, finally settled into starting job and gave every impression that he’s on the star track. The defense improved overnight, generating 18 sacks and 9 takeaways in the past 3 games. An underwhelming 2025 recruiting class added a dozen commitments in a span of 2 weeks, riding a sudden wave of momentum from the bottom of the SEC into the top 15 nationally according to 247Sports’ composite rankings. With Lagway entrenched entering Year 2, there is genuine optimism at Florida for the first time since Marco Wilson threw that shoe.

Cruising

Texas. There is still rampant speculation over Quinn Ewers’ future as the starting quarterback, and technically the Longhorns still have not beaten a (currently) ranked opponent after Texas A&M dropped out of the polls following a 17-7 defeat in College Station. Compared to the rest of the field in this chaotic season, they’re a beacon of stability. Texas has sewn up a Playoff slot, put itself in position to earn a first-round bye with a win in this weekend’s SEC Championship Game against Georgia, and boasts the best odds of any team in the country to win the national title, per FPI. Coming off a de facto shutout against the Aggies — A&M’s only points came via pick-6 — the defense ranks atop the SEC and among the top three nationally in scoring defense, total defense and yards per play.

Wait a second: A blue-chip recruiting power winning ugly with a sweltering d-line, veteran o-line paving the way for a run-first offense and a solid but boring QB … are the ‘Horns executing the classic SEC blueprint better than any other team in the SEC right now?

Georgia. Good luck discerning any kind blueprint from Georgia: The Dawgs have put together 2 more or less complete performances this season, in a Week 1 win over Clemson and a Week 12 win over Tennessee, while spending the rest of the season overcoming one Achilles’ heel after another. Carson Beck had his midseason interception spree; the wideouts have struggled with a season-long case of the dropsies; the offensive line was manhandled in a loss at Ole Miss; and the defense, while it’s had its moments (see the win at Texas), has taken an undeniable step back from the borderline NFL-ready units that anchored national title runs in 2021 and ’22.

Twice now, first in their dramatic Week 5 loss at Alabama and again in Friday’s 8-overtime epic against Georgia Tech, they’ve fallen behind big in the first half only to rally in the second, their season flashing before their eyes. At one point in the 4th quarter against Tech, ESPN’s real-time Win Probability metric gave the Yellow Jackets a 98.4% chance to finish off the upset, and it only got wilder from there as the game entered the “alternating 2-point conversions” portion of the proceedings in the later overtimes.

Given the ease of their previous championship campaigns, I doubt many Georgia fans would describe that experience as “cruising.” (More like “near-death.”) And yet, here they are: 10-2, Playoff bid almost certainly in the bank regardless of the outcome of this weekend’s SEC Championship rematch against Texas, with all of their goals as well within reach as if they were entering the postseason undefeated. Is anyone going to be the least bit surprised if the Dawgs put it all together over the next 6 weeks and wind up back in Atlanta with the big one on the line on Jan. 20? Slightly disoriented, maybe. But not surprised.

Tennessee. Again, it hasn’t always pretty, but Tennessee effectively clinched a CFP Saturday in a 36-23 win at Vanderbilt. Can the Vols win it all? They’ve got a top-5 defense, an All-American workhorse in Dylan Sampson and no shortage of playmakers among the wideouts. The X-factor, still, is Nico Iamaleava, who turned in arguably the best game of his young career to date against the Commodores with 4 touchdown passes, a 195.3 passer rating, and a 90.8 QBR rating on 18-of-26 passing.

Sure, that was against an overmatched Vandy defense, which has had its moments this season but was back to looking like plain old Vandy down the stretch. Given the opportunity, though, lighting up Vandy is a lot better than not lighting up Vandy, and every chance for Iamaleava to show off his growth with (probably) a road Playoff game on deck is a good one. Getting into the field on the strength of the defense and ground game is one thing; actually advancing is going to come down to their would-be franchise QB taking the next step.

No Complaints

Vanderbilt. The ‘Dores’ season was officially gravy as soon as the clock hit triple zeroes on their historic upset over Alabama in October. They earned bowl eligibility a couple weeks later, in a win over Ball State, and promptly hit the skids, dropping 4 of their last 5. Who’s going to remember what bowl they played in? They beat Bama, got effin’ turnt, and saved their head coach’s job. No notes.

Regrets, they have a few

Alabama. If Clemson loses in the ACC Championship Game, the odds narrowly favor Bama claiming the final at-large ticket over Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina, and if it plays out that way, the Tide have to be considered a threat to go all the way. In spite of everything, this is still the most talented roster in college football (according to 247’s composite), and Jalen Milroe is the biggest wild card. When he’s on, he’s arguably the most valuable player in the country. The team that beat Georgia and dominated LSU behind Milroe’s electric performances in those games can beat anyone in any environment, including a Big Ten host in a first-round game in a half-frozen stadium in mid-December.

Still, his lows have been low enough not only relegate Bama to the bubble, but to cast real doubt on his ability to put together 3 or 4 championship-caliber performances in a row.

If the 24-3 meltdown at Oklahoma in Week 13 wasn’t enough to eliminate the Tide from contention, it can at least serve as a reminder that in at least one important respect — week-in, week-out consistency when the stakes are not dialed to 11 — this is already very much a post-Saban outfit. This is a team that followed up those reaffirming wins over UGA and LSU by immediately losing to Vanderbilt and Somehow Worse Than Vanderbilt. And if they don’t make the cut, whether it’s because Clemson steals a bid or the committee opts for another bubble team, they’ll have no one to blame but themselves.

Ole Miss. All of the above also applies to Ole Miss, whose transfer-heavy, $10 million roster has lived up to the billing against Playoff-caliber opponents and lost the plot at random intervals. The Rebels outscored the 2 best teams on their schedule, Georgia and South Carolina, by a combined 55-13, looking like serious national contenders on both occasions. On both occasions, they immediately dropped their next game against LSU and Florida, respectively.

In retrospect, their Week 5 loss to Kentucky in Oxford was arguably a more inexcusable loss than either of Alabama’s unranked flops against Vandy or OU, given that a) it happened at home, and b) Kentucky went on to finish 0-7 against the rest of its conference schedule. There’s a lot to be said for constructing a roster capable of beating anybody on any given Saturday, but when the underdogs on your schedule are repeatedly turning that cliché around on you, there is no room to complain when the benefit of the doubt goes to somebody else.

Texas A&M. With all that was on the line against Texas, the loss on Saturday night is going to stick with the Aggies for a long time. Getting eliminated by your long lost rival on your own field is bad enough; failing to even score an offensive touchdown (or even a field goal) in the process is worse. But the reason that game was a win-or-go-home affair in the first place was A&M’s to previous SEC games, road losses to South Carolina and Auburn, both of which the Aggies were favored to win. A month ago they were 5-0 in conference play, in sole possession of first place and ranked in the top 10; they finished 5-3, in a 6-way tie for places 4th through 9th. The only silver lining is there are no stubborn embers of hope left for the committee to snuff out.

Missouri. Missouri’s goose was cooked, Playoff-wise, in a pair of blowout October losses at Texas A&M (41-10) to open the month and Alabama (34-0) to close it. The Tigers didn’t have enough quality opponents on the schedule to overcome those margins. But they did have a November trip to South Carolina, and had an opportunity to win it — multiple opportunities, in fact: Mizzou managed 2 go-ahead touchdown drives in the 4th quarter, only to give the lead right back to the Gamecocks on both occasions in an eventual 34-30 loss. The winning TD came with 15 seconds left, dooming the Tigers to CFP irrelevance with their 3rd loss in an as many tries against ranked opponents.

If they’d held on in that game, they’d be 10-2 now and taking Carolina’s place in the 3-way debate with Bama and Ole Miss. With Brady Cook and Luther Burden III moving on, when’s the next time Missouri will have a chance to be in the thick of a Playoff controversy again at this point on the calendar?

Limbo

LSU. The season didn’t end as badly as it could have, with LSU pulling out of a 3-game skid just in time to salvage an 8-4 finish with a couple of perfunctory home wins over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma. But the losing streak, which spanned nearly a full month with an open date extending the misery, was a season-defining debacle: Each loss was a little bit worse than the last in its own specific way. The Tigers blew a double-digit lead at Texas A&M in a wipeout of a second half, getting outscored 31-6 over the final 24 minutes; they were run out of their own stadium by Alabama, failing to reach the end zone until well after the home crowd had abandoned the premises in the midst of a 42-13 humiliation; they were ambushed by Florida, a team that at that point had been left for dead.

In the midst of the on-field losses, they took an even bigger L off the field when prized 2025 QB commit Bryce Underwood flipped his commitment to Michigan, putting the future in as much doubt as the present. Brian Kelly isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, but at the moment, neither are the Tigers. It’s safe to say Kelly never planned for his job security to hinge on Garrett Nussmeier making the Joe Burrow/Jayden Daniels leap into a Heisman-caliber quarterback as a 5th-year senior, but with the long-term promise of the Underwood era to fall back on that might be exactly the position he finds himself in next year.

Oklahoma. The Sooners’ out-of-nowhere upset over Alabama salvaged some desperately needed positivity from Oklahoma’s worst season in a generation, but it didn’t change anything about the underlying malaise as the Brent Venables era enters Year 4 with very little to build on. If not for the Bama miracle, OU would have closed on a 6-game conference losing streak and missed a bowl game for the first time since 1998. Venables has a big decision to make at quarterback, where former 5-star Jackson Arnold flashed some promising mobility against the Crimson Tide but otherwise suffered through a dismal debut as a starter. Arnold still has time to turn it around, but Venables can’t afford to bet his job or the future of the program on a bust.

Arkansas. There was a point at midseason when it looked like Arkansas might have a shot to make some noise after stunning then-No. 4 Tennessee in Fayetteville, a major upset that moved the Razorbacks to 4-2. Instead, they dropped 4 of their final 5 in conference play, barely cracking the national consciousness again except in a Week 10 loss to Ole Miss in which they found themselves on the wrong of a 63-point, 694-yard bonanza by the Ole Miss offense. They limped into the clubhouse at 6-6, just good enough to keep Sam Pittman employed for another year (health permitting) while being forgettable in almost every other sense outside of the upset over Tennessee. And even that ultimately didn’t prevent the Vols from eventually landing in the CFP.

Rebuilding

Mississippi State. The Bulldogs had minimal expectations under first-year coach Jeff Lebby and never threatened to exceed them, losing every conference game (as well as a nonconference game to Toledo) by double digits. Their narrowest defeat, a 30-23 decision at Arizona State in Week 2, came in a game they trailed in the second half 30-3 before staging a late, futile rally. True freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. looks like a keeper; otherwise, they probably need to be aggressive in the portal just to give themselves a chance to snap an ongoing SEC losing streak — now at 12 games and counting — in the foreseeable future.

Languishing

Auburn. The Tigers got a brief jolt of hope and a good old-fashioned field storming out of their quadruple-overtime upset over Texas A&M in Week 13, but their 5th consecutive defeat in the Iron Bowl drove home the reality: At 2-6 in SEC play, they’re no closer to consistently competing with the upper half of the conference than they were when Hugh Freeze took over for Bryan Harsin 2 years ago. Deuce Knight, a 5-star QB commit, might be the future (assuming he remains in the fold), but unless Auburn manages some tangible improvement in Year 3, by this time next year, that future might be unfolding under a different head coach.

Kentucky. Mark Stoops insisted to reporters after Saturday’s 41-14 beatdown at the hands of Louisville that he’s “not going anywhere,” and as of this writing he has not. But when the conference’s longest-tenured head coach is reduced to justifying his existence in the wake of a lopsided loss to a rival to punctuate a 4-8 season, the writing is on the wall. The loss snapped a 5-game UK winning streak in the series and made the end of an 8-year streak of bowl eligibility that much more depressing. Stoops is the most successful coach in school history. But whether it’s his choice or not, the time has come to hit reset.

Superlatives

The week’s best individual performances.

1. South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers. See above. Sellers is not as experienced or decorated as the other quarterbacks whose teams are in the running for the final at-large Playoff slot, Jaxson Dart, Jalen Milroe and Miami’s Cam Ward. But on the “guys you don’t want to see with your season on the line” tier, he’s right there with them.

2. Texas RB Quintrevion Wisner. Wisner is making his 2nd consecutive appearance in the Superlatives lineup, following up last week’s 26-carry, 158-yard breakout against Kentucky by shouldering an even heavier load in Texas’ physical, emotional win over Texas A&M: 35 carries, 207 total yards, the vast majority of that total coming a) after halftime and b) after contact. If Texas’ transition to a grind-it-out, ball-control offense holds up in the postseason, his emergence as a high-volume workhorse will be the key reason.

3. Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson. Sampson’s week-in, week-out consistency for the Playoff-bound Vols has made him arguably the most valuable player in the conference. He churned out a career-high 178 yards on 25 carries against Vanderbilt, his 10th game over the century mark this season — and his first without a touchdown.

4. LSU LB Whit Weeks. It’s hard to say how much LSU missed Harold Perkins Jr.’s versatility after he went on the shelf with a torn ACL in September, considering Weeks can’t do all the things Perkins could as an edge rusher or in coverage. Strictly as a ball-hawk, though, he’s been as ubiquitous as any defender in the league. Against Oklahoma, Weeks was his usual, active self, racking up 17 total tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and 7 “stops,” per PFF, defined as tackles that represent a failure for the offense based on down and distance; he also had 4 QB pressures as a pass rusher and forced a fumble, for good measure. All-SEC honors should be forthcoming as a true sophomore.

5. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe. Milroe’s boom-or-bust tendencies are frustrating, to put it mildly, but when the needle is pointing in the right direction, he looks like the best player in the country. He was on against Auburn, rebounding from a nightmare Week 13 outing at Oklahoma to account for 360 total yards, 3 touchdowns (all rushing) and a 97.3 QBR against the Tigers — his 4th game of the season with a 97.0 or higher. For comparison, the rest of the SEC has 3 games with a 97.0 QBR combined.

Honorable Mention: Alabama WR Germie Bernard, who had a career-high 111 yards on 7 catches in his first Iron Bowl. … LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, who finished with 277 yards, 3 TDs and a season-high 90.9 QBR in the Tigers’ decisive win over Oklahoma. … Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava and his leading receiver, Dont’e Thornton, who accounted for nearly half of Iamaleava’s 257 passing yards and 2 of his 4 touchdown passes in the Vols’ win over Vanderbilt. … Texas A&M LB Taurean York, who recorded a team-high 10 tackles with 3.5 TFLs and 4 QB pressures in the Aggies’ loss to Texas. … Missouri edge Johnny Walker Jr., who generated 7 QB pressures and forced 2 fumbles in the Tigers’ snowy, come-from-behind win over Arkansas. … Arkansas WR Andrew Armstrong, who recorded his 5th 100-yard game of the season in a losing effort.… Texas DL Vernon Broughton, who had 5 QB pressures, 2 sacks and a fumble recovery against Texas A&M on another stellar night for Texas’ defensive front. … And Florida DL Tyreak Sapp, PFF’s top-graded player on a unit that generated eight sacks in a lopsided win at Florida State.

– – –
The scoring system for players honored in Superlatives awards 8 points for the week’s top player, 6 for 2nd, 5 for 3rd, 4 for 4th, 3 for 5th and 1 for honorable mention, because how honorable is it really if it doesn’t come with any points? Standings are updated weekly with the top 10 players for the season to date.

SEC Power Rankings

Updating the food chain.

1. Texas (11-1). | Last Week: 1

2. Georgia (10-2). | Last Week: 2

3. Tennessee (10-2). | Last Week: 3

4. Ole Miss (9-3). | Last Week: 4

5. Alabama (9-3). | Last Week: 5

6. South Carolina (9-3). | Last Week: 6

7. Texas A&M (8-4). | Last Week: 7

8. Missouri (9-3). | Last Week: 8

9. Florida (7-5). | Last Week: 9

10. LSU (8-4). | Last Week: 10

11. Oklahoma (6-6). | Last Week: 11

12. Arkansas (6-6). | Last Week: 12

13. Vanderbilt (6-6). | Last Week: 13

14. Auburn (5-7). | Last Week: 14

15. Kentucky (4-8). | Last Week: 15

16. Mississippi State (2-10). | Last Week: 16

Obscure Stat of the Week

Arkansas WR Andrew Armstrong finished atop the SEC in both receptions (78) and receiving yards (1,140), joining Cobi Hamilton (2012) as the only Razorbacks to lead the conference in both categories. Incredibly, Armstrong only managed to find the end zone once, in a midseason loss to LSU. Per SportsReference.com, no other player has led the SEC in receiving yards while failing to score multiple touchdowns since at least 1956, which is as far back as the site’s archive goes.

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.

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