
My 10 biggest SEC upsets involving SEC teams for 2023
Upsets make the college football world go round.
Without them, this sport is 13 drama-less weekends. We need them to keep us full of intrigue heading into each and every college football Saturday.
If you don’t predict upsets in the preseason, you’re essentially saying that you hate fun. You can hate an upset pick, but you can’t hate on upsets as a whole.
Today, we’ll dip into my 2023 Crystal Ball series and pull out the 10 biggest upsets involving an SEC team that I have for the 2023 season:
10. Arkansas wins at Ole Miss
A desperate Arkansas team shows up in Oxford. It’s as simple as that. During the 3 years of Sam Pittman-Lane Kiffin matchups, these have somewhat quietly been wildly entertaining games with big plays galore. Ole Miss looks like a team that’s gassed after the LSU victory (more on that in a minute), and that’s a bad recipe for trying to stop Rocket Sanders and KJ Jefferson. Kiffin knows that all too well. Sanders had 261 scrimmage yards against his defense last year. Then again, Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans both eclipsed the 200-yard mark for Ole Miss. I mean, this one had nearly 800 rushing yards. That doesn’t quite happen this time, but just like last year’s frigid day of zero tackling in Fayetteville, Arkansas’ ground game does the heavy lifting in a win.
9. Mississippi State wins at Texas A&M
Will Rogers carved up A&M each of the past 2 seasons, albeit in a different offense. But this time, Mississippi State keeps the Aggies off the field with the much improved ground attack. In addition to Woody Marks, Simeon Price gets a significant workload. Instead of a favorable home matchup at Kyle Field, the day brings Aggies DC DJ Durkin’s future into question.
8. Texas A&M wins at LSU
Do you think A&M is going to relish the opportunity to play spoiler again? I do. Instead of LSU locking up anothe SECr West title, it fails to avenge its 2022 loss to the Aggies and it blows a golden opportunity. Why? Balance. LSU is unable to pin its ears back and get home. Unlike last year when it was mostly about the A&M ground game, QB Conner Weigman shows his growth by stepping into some NFL throws and burning LSU on the back end. The full transformation of A&M’s offense is complete and a stunned Death Valley crowd is left wondering what to make of a roller-coaster season.
7. LSU wins at Alabama
How’s this for drama? In the early moments, Jayden Daniels suffers a leg injury. That brings on Garrett Nussmeier, who leads LSU to a thrilling victory in Tuscaloosa, where Alabama hasn’t lost since a certain Joe Burrow did his thing in 2019. Instead of this being a revenge game, we’re reminded that the Alabama offense isn’t quite as explosive as it has been. LSU’s loaded front 7 gets home and it’s a day to forget for Ty Simpson, who can’t keep pace with Nussmeier’s home-run plays. LSU takes control of the West.
6. Ole Miss wins vs. LSU
Huh? How is preseason darling LSU going to stub its toe in Oxford? Isn’t LSU the better team? Yes. But here’s the issue for the favorite Tigers: In the first 5 weeks, they play 4 Power 5 teams with winning records last year. I wonder if this is where that catches up to LSU in its attempt to slow down Judkins. Unlike last year, Jaxson Dart avoids costly mistakes in the red zone and allows Ole Miss to play with a touchdown lead for most of the day. A back-and-forth day ends with LSU failing to get the defensive stands it needs in a 35-28 Ole Miss upset.
5. Florida wins vs. Tennessee
It’s been 20 years since Tennessee won in Gainesville. Twenty. Yes, this should be the most lopsided the rivalry has been in Tennessee’s favor during that stretch. No, that doesn’t guarantee that the Vols finally get it done in The Swamp. My thinking? This is the game in which Billy Napier’s hire of DC Austin Armstrong looks like a godsend. Instead of the Vols pushing Florida around in their own building, a pair of Joe Milton overthrows turn into interceptions that set up Gators touchdown drives. The Vols’ lack of defensive discipline proves costly and Etienne runs for 150. Tennessee’s losing streak in The Swamp officially passes the 2-decade mark.
4. Florida wins vs. Florida State
How’s this for a way to earn bowl eligibility — FSU rolls into The Swamp with 1 loss and Playoff hopes on the line … only to lay an absolute egg in Gainesville. The Seminoles have no answer for the Florida ground attack, which kept the Gators alive in Tallahassee last year despite a 36-minute stretch without a completed pass. Florida State gets accused of looking ahead to the ACC Championship rematch against Clemson while Napier celebrates what’s easily his biggest victory to date.
3. South Carolina wins at Tennessee
You thought last year was a fluke? Nope. With so many of those pieces back from last year’s stunner in Columbia, South Carolina does the unthinkable again. This time, Spencer Rattler doesn’t play perfect. He throws 2 interceptions, but he also delivers touchdown passes to Juice Wells and tight end transfer Trey Knox. A revenge game for Tennessee follows a frustrating script. Milton’s fast start fades and Tennessee is forced to turn into a 1-dimensional offense. The Gamecocks pounce on a pair of fumbles, the second of which sets up a game-winning field goal in the final minute. The Vols lose at home for the first time since November 2021.
2. Vanderbilt wins at Ole Miss
Remember last year when Vandy had a 10-point lead with a minute left in the first half? That wasn’t a fluke. Granted, neither was Ole Miss scoring 35 points to erase that deficit and avoid the letdown. But this year, Vandy doesn’t splinter with defensive lapse after defensive lapse. Instead, Vandy QB AJ Swann plays the best game of his young career. Ole Miss’ secondary can’t find answers. After a fast start, Dart reverts to some old habits with 2 red-zone interceptions. Vandy ends the 4-year losing streak to Ole Miss and Clark Lea earns his first SEC win of 2023.
1. South Carolina wins vs. Clemson
Yep. Again. Rattler saves his best for last. Again. On Senior Day, Rattler’s best moment yet comes against an unbeaten Clemson squad. South Carolina OC Dowell Loggains gives Rattler the opportunity to air it out early and often. Just as he did last year, Wells gets behind the Clemson secondary and has a field day. Instead of relying on All-ACC running back Will Shipley to dig Clemson out of an early hole, OC Garrett Riley puts the ball in the hands of QB Cade Klubnik. Clayton White’s defense befuddles the first-year starting quarterback and South Carolina takes advantage of a pair of 2nd-half turnovers. For the 2nd consecutive year, Shane Beamer knocks off Dabo Swinney and puts Clemson’s Playoff hopes in jeopardy.
Don’t think Vandy is upsetting anyone.
Agreed. I don’t think predicating road upsets is very smart either. Connor has had a poor record at predicting in the past. Don’t see him getting any wiser. I would predict the opposite on half of these.
He copy pastes these upsets from the Crystal Ball predictions
I appreciate his consistency, though. Looks like he built out his prediction for every game this season for every SEC team, made sure they’re consistent, and wrote it up into a couple of different formats. Not saying I think it’s all that accurate, but hey, it’s still sort of offseason for the most part, so I appreciate whatever I can get at this point.
I just don’t get the Vandy upset pick at all. Just…no.
KY and UGA seem immune from the upset bug. Hopefully the cats will give uga a challenge (but I doubt it)
I agree, but not surprised. Connor has been all over the place with OleMiss this offseason. The Vandy team I wastched play last weekend does not look like a team that will win an SEC game. Much less against one of the most talented OleMiss teams ever and in Oxford.
I don’t think LSU will win at Alabama this season. They’re not that good yet.
I also find it fascinating that one media member can pick Florida to upset BOTH Tennessee and FSU, yet the prevailing media forecast is a losing season for the Gators.
Knowing something about the culture of accountability that’s been established at UF and the offseason conditioning program the Gators have gone through, those two predictions are mutually exclusive.
The UT Defense will be better this year mark it down. Maybe doing a slight bit of research on how the DLine has developed with better talent and healthy players in the secondary would make you change your picks…
Less bad is the phrase you want
So……better. That’s the way a grown up would say it.
I didn’t make any picks. Connor made the pick. I’m keeping my own counsel until AFTER the Gators play the Vols.
Florida beating Tenn & FSU in the Swamp ain’t no upset, it’s just the way it is
You know what palley, wanted to troll this comment as pure homerism carpola but…you make a good point. The Swamp is a tough place on opponents…so I give your comment a 50% accuracy rating, you’re losing one of those 2…
Maybe… maybe not.
Remind me again when was the last time UF lost to Tenn in the Swamp
I don’t disagree palley, that’s why my money is on the spearchunkers, they are like 4-2 in hogtown in the last decade or so, yes?
3 – 2 to be exact with the Gators taking the last 2.
Thought I read somewhere where they won 4 in a row in Gainesville, but I have no doubt you know better…
I think the predictions about Bama taking a big step back this year has a lot to do with Bama fatigue. There are question marks but it’s relative to the incredibly high bar they have set. They have the GOAT as HC, an army of analysts, and still have the most talented roster in CFB along with Georgia and CFB is all about talent. They are loaded with 5 star players and the bust rate on 5 stars vs success rate is low. Some of the 5 and high 4 star players that we haven’t seen yet are likely to emerge this year.
Tennessee losing to Florida ANYWHERE, much less Gainesville, is not a bold prediction. I’ll believe it when it happens.
So if it’s so unbelievable that you have to see it first, why isn’t it bold?
Because picking the outcome that usually happens isn’t bold
No, but predicting an unbelievable occurrence will happen is.
Fact is, it hasn’t happened in 20 years. Yet, that means nothing this year.
Not only are you d umb ogara. But you’re lazy too. This cut and paste column? Really?
Garbage work by a garbage “writer”.
Two out of 10, at most. Most of this is nonsense and fodder for conversation. It’s not working.
To make some of these predictions, and then try to rationalize them, is a reach and a hit to his credibility.
I find it amusing and flattering that LSU beating Bama is such a big upset. It’s definitely not wrong. Bama beating anybody would never be considered a “big upset”. LSU is a tier below, however.
You’re right. There are enough people picking LSU to win that game and win the West, that it shouldn’t be considered an upset.
I like #3 and #1
GO COCKS
Outstanding journalism!
J/k! But I do like a couple of the predictions!
Some of these look like cut and paste results from last season.
Or the Crystal Ball articles
Beating Clemson and Tennessee again. Sign me up.
I hope O’Gara likes crow and has a lot of recipes; because he is going to be consuming copious amounts by the end of this season.
I wish the SDS main page would list the article’s author BEFORE I click it…not that it matters much…
The writers for SDS aren’t what you’d say are college football “experts”. Take whatever they say with a grain of salt. Especially Hayes and O’Gara.
Every LSU fan on here whining about these picks. This is a fun column to get some conversation started. RELAX you tiddy babies. This is not a personal affront to you or LSU.
^^^ same for Tennessee fans. Y’all all need to chill
Too bad none of the lower SEC teams have San Jose State. That would be my pick for an upset. They almost took it Auburn last year and are even better this year.