Ad Disclosure
Welcome to November, where the SEC race is just getting started instead of concluding.
The SEC race to Atlanta was often concluding in early November. We can thank Alabama-LSU for that in the divisions era of the SEC. But in the division-less era of the SEC, that game will merely be one of several November games that’ll impact conference title berths.
That’s fun. Cheers to that. Chaos is imminent thanks to the fact that there’s just 1 remaining SEC team that’s unbeaten in conference play.
You know. In case you haven’t heard after what Marcel Reed did on Saturday night at Kyle Field.
Plenty of pivotal showdowns await. Let’s dig into them with some early thoughts on a light, but important Week 10:
Florida vs. No. 2 Georgia (in Jacksonville) — Florida needs DJ Lagway to be more 2020 Kyle Trask than 2021 Anthony Richardson … and then some
You’re not going to beat Georgia by getting constant reminders of how inexperienced a quarterback is. That’s what 2021 felt like with Richardson, who had 2 costly turnovers deep in his own territory that flipped the momentum of a game that was a stalemate for most of the first half. You’re only going to beat Georgia by getting splash plays, much like Trask got in 2020 when he had 5 passing plays of 30 yards in the first half of the Florida victory. That day, by the way, was the last time that UGA lost to a non-Alabama team.
Lagway is much more like Richardson in terms of his experience — this is his first career start away from The Swamp — but he’s much more capable of producing chunk plays like Trask did that season. Even though he only has 2 career starts, Lagway is No. 3 in the SEC with 10 passing plays of 40 yards. That’s twice as many as Graham Mertz had all of last season, and for what it’s worth, it’s 1 more than Richardson had in his full season as a starter under Billy Napier in 2022. Those chunk plays can only happen if Florida’s protection holds up against a Georgia pass rush that most recently terrorized both Texas quarterbacks in Austin en route to a statement win.
In other words, Lagway and Napier have their work cut out for them.
No. 10 Texas A&M vs. South Carolina — I know the Marcel Reed hype is through the roof, but …
That guy deserves all the credit in the world for staying ready and dominating LSU on Saturday night. Shoot, he deserves a ton of credit for being 3-0 as a starter, and if you want to count the LSU win, he’s essentially 4-0 as a starter. Reed looks like an excellent fit in the Collin Klein offense, which took off for 5 scoring drives after trailing 17-7 against the Tigers.
But … let’s remember something.
In Reed’s 2024 debut at Florida, I’d argue that the Gators likely spent more time prepping for game-time scratch Conner Weigman than the redshirt freshman. And when Weigman was out the following 2 games with the shoulder injury, Reed was locked in as QB1. Teams had a full week to prep for him. Here’s how those went:
- vs. Bowling Green:
- W, 26-20
- 5.7 yards/play
- 6.0 yards/pass
- 55% passing
- 2 TD drives
- vs. Arkansas (in Arlington):
- W 21-17
- 5.0 yards/play
- 7.4 yards/pass
- 50% passing
- 3 TD drives
I’m not trying to hate on Reed. I am, however, pointing out that it’s entirely different to catch a defense by surprise and dominate than it is to dominate after a defense has had a full week of game-planning. I can guarantee that South Carolina used its bye week by intently watching A&M’s bold QB switch and it began to prep for the Reed version of Klein’s offense. Against a South Carolina defensive line that’s been elite at disrupting plays in the backfield — the Gamecocks are No. 7 in FBS in yards/rush allowed and No. 8 in TFLs/game — Reed will have his work cut out for him.
No. 19 Ole Miss vs. Arkansas — If Sam Pittman ends Ole Miss’ slim Playoff hopes to clinch bowl eligibility, I believe he’s back in 2025
I know I wrote last week that Pittman beating Mississippi State was monumental for his future because the alternative was a loss to the last-place team in the SEC, which would’ve undone the goodwill that he earned from the Tennessee win. But Mississippi State was a “lose and Pittman is probably not coming back next year” sort of game. After the Hogs drubbed the Bulldogs in Starkville to guarantee an improvement from a 4-win season last year, Ole Miss is a “win and Pittman is probably coming back next year” sort of game.
On the Arkansas side, Pittman can clinch a bowl berth with a multi-win improvement. He can do so by taking down another ranked foe in Fayetteville. Doing so while ending Ole Miss’ slim Playoff hopes would be significant. It would be further confirmation that Pittman made the right decision to hire Bobby Petrino as his OC and to trust him to develop Taylen Green. Against an Ole Miss defense that’s been lights out, that group has potential to have its most impressive showing of the season. And on the other side of the ball, the Tre Harris-less version of the Ole Miss hasn’t looked like a juggernaut by any means. If he’s not back at full strength, an upset with significant post-2024 implications could be in the works.
Vanderbilt vs. Auburn — Diego Pavia returns to “the house that Diego Pavia built”
Is that not what Jordan-Hare Stadium switched its name to after Pavia led New Mexico State into a beatdown of Auburn last year? Ah, my bad. I just assumed that was the case. If you need a reminder of what Pavia did last year, here ya go. Auburn was riding 3 consecutive double-digit wins, including one against Vandy, and Pavia was so unstoppable at Jordan-Hare that it prompted Clark Lea to poach him and several pieces of the New Mexico State offense (HC Jerry Kill, OC Tim Beck, TE Eli Stowers, etc.). That decision now has Vandy on the brink of bowl eligibility after another win against an SEC team from Alabama.
Auburn, on the other hand, is now seeking revenge on Pavia to avoid a “win out” scenario for bowl eligibility. What a sentence. That’ll be no small feat considering that Vandy has yet to suffer a multi-score loss this season while Auburn has yet to beat an SEC team at Jordan-Hare this season. Vandy is indeed an SEC team, and if Auburn wants to avenge last year’s meltdown vs. Pavia, it’ll have to play its most disciplined game of the season.
Maine vs. Oklahoma — Offense? Offense (I think).
Jackson Arnold showed a ton of fight against the No. 2 scoring defense in America. Unfortunately for him, that offensive line is a rotating train wreck and it was far too overwhelmed to hold onto a lead at Ole Miss. But against an FCS foe, Oklahoma should, in theory, be set up for a better offensive day that any it had all year. That includes the Temple game, which featured a dismal 3rd-down offense. The question will be if OU’s offense gets any help in the form of those injured receivers. There’s been a chance that Deion Burks could return each of the last 2 games, but with each game that he’s inactive, one has to wonder if he’s considering sitting out the remainder of the year to not get hurt for the NFL Draft process or if he’s staying at the 4-game maximum to preserve a year of eligibility.
Either way, Oklahoma could throw its high school receiver recruits on the field Saturday and still have a strong chance at putting up significant points against Maine.
UMass vs. Mississippi State — Jeff Lebby’s team deserves to feel good for a day
No moral victories. I get it. Hanging with 3 consecutive top-15 teams into the second half went largely unnoticed nationally, as did the fact that Michael Van Buren Jr. flashed serious signs of promise as a true freshman against actual SEC defenses. Against 2-win UMass, who has also yet to beat an FBS foe in 2024, I expect the Bulldogs offense to take flight. Five of UMass’ 6 opponents hit 28 points, including Mizzou, who casually put on 45 points in that inexplicable trip up to the Northeast. This should be a nice spot for Kevin Coleman to take advantage of the Don Brown defense, which allowed 7 passing plays of 40 yards this year.
All signs point to Mississippi State getting its first win vs. an FBS opponent of the Lebby era.
Kentucky vs. No. 7 Tennessee — This shouldn’t be complicated for Josh Heupel
I know that Heupel would love to see Nico Iamaleava and this passing game get going, especially with a bye week to figure out some of those issues. But we just watched Auburn lean heavily on Jarquez Hunter to take the soul of a Kentucky team that looks like it’s ready to move on to 2025. At Neyland against Mark Stoops, who has yet to beat Heupel, I’d imagine that Dylan Sampson will get a ton of work coming off the bye week.
Sampson has evolved into the lead back that rarely emerges in the Heupel offense, which has never had a player average 15 carries per game in his 6 seasons as an FBS head coach. The Tennessee tailback leads the SEC with 20.6 carries per game, which is 4 more than any other player in the conference. Hunter’s record-setting game at Kentucky meant that he overtook idle Sampson for the SEC’s rushing lead, but the latter played in 1 fewer game. Something tells me that Hunter’s lead won’t last through Week 10.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
