O'Gara: Predicting the 10 biggest SEC upsets in the 2024 season
Editor’s note: Saturday Down South recently completed its annual SEC Crystal Ball prediction series, from which we selected the 10 biggest upsets of the 2024 season. For team previews: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | LSU | Mizzou | Mississippi State | Oklahoma | Ole Miss | South Carolina | Tennessee | Texas | Texas A&M | Vanderbilt
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If you don’t predict upsets, you might hate fun.
Sorry, that was harsh. You might like fun. You might not know how to have it. Upsets are the lifeblood of college football. To scoff at them is to spit in the face of fun.
I like fun, especially in the form of an Earth-shattering upset. I’m not saying that I picked 10 Earth-shattering upsets in our Crystal Ball series. Some are more fun/Earth-shattering than others.
I realize that the hit rate on these isn’t exactly Graham Mertz’s completion percentage. Think of it more like a batting average. If I hit 3 out of 10, that’s All-Star level. If I hit 4 out of 10, they’re building me a statue.
Having said that, I expect all 10 of my upsets to hit. Anything less than a 100% hit rate wouldn’t be fun.
So, here are my top 10 SEC upsets for 2024:
10. Texas beats Georgia in Austin
Let’s start with a bang. Yes, this one lives up to the billing. Both teams trade blows in what feels like a true heavyweight fight. It’s the type of game that never sees a deficit get beyond a touchdown with big plays on both sides of the ball. So then what proves to be the deciding factor? Steve Sarkisian scheming in the passing game late. In an extremely uncharacteristic sequence of events, UGA leaves Isaiah Bond uncovered after a miscommunication in the secondary. He waltzes in for a go-ahead touchdown to give Texas a 31-28 victory that has everyone begging for a rematch. Texas pulls off the “upset,” though a 2-point spread at the time of the matchup prevents it from being higher on this list.
9. South Carolina beats Kentucky in Lexington
Through 3 seasons, Shane Beamer already has more victories against Mark Stoops (2) than Will Muschamp (1) had in 5 seasons. Say what you want about the Beamer-Stoops beef. This is when Kentucky’s backfield depth is tested and South Carolina’s improvement in the ground game takes shape. Rocket Sanders takes off early and UK’s offense has some 2023 vibes. Brock Vandagriff struggles to get on the same page as his pass-catchers, which results in a late interception that closes out a gritty road win for South Carolina.
8. Oklahoma beats Auburn in Auburn
This feels like such a pivotal game for programs that are determined to be part of the 12-team Playoff discussion. It wouldn’t be surprising if Jarquez Hunter and Gavin Sawchuk got rolling in the ground game and this turned into a matchup in which both teams struggled to get off blocks. So what tips the scales toward Oklahoma? Jackson Arnold’s legs. His ability to extend plays and keep drives alive deflates the raucous Jordan-Hare crowd. Oklahoma’s first SEC road win sends a loud message to the rest of the conference.
7. South Carolina beats Texas A&M in Columbia
A&M’s road woes will resurface while South Carolina will remind us all that nobody is safe in Williams-Brice. Why? Fresh off a bye, the Gamecocks look like a well-rested group that finally puts 4 quarters together on offense. A Rocket Sanders-heavy approach works like a charm to give South Carolina an early lead that it doesn’t look back on. A 45-pass attempt day for Conner Weigman leads to South Carolina taking advantage of the 1-dimensional A&M offense. The Gamecocks pick up a huge win to keep bowl hopes alive.
6. Oklahoma beats Alabama in Norman
A game with massive Playoff implications goes to the home Sooners in thrilling fashion. Why? Oklahoma’s wideouts feast on Alabama’s inconsistent secondary. It’s not quite 2020 Alabama-Ole Miss levels of shootout, but let’s just say that points aren’t lacking in Norman. Jalen Milroe and Arnold deliver one of the games of the year. Nic Anderson proves to be too much for the Alabama defense, which finally can’t get that late stop.
5. Oklahoma beats Mizzou in Columbia
In the Theo Wease Bowl, Oklahoma shows that it has plenty of pass-catchers who can play at the SEC level. That turns into another frustrating day at the office for Mizzou’s secondary, which looks overmatched for the third time in as many games. Anderson makes a pair of jump-ball grabs downfield that deflate the home crowd. Brady Cook tries to put on his cape, but he ends up suffering a leg injury while trying to extend a play. He shows grit by staying in, but ultimately, Oklahoma dials up too much pressure for him to mount a comeback. The Sooners hand Mizzou a devastating home loss.
4. Texas A&M beats LSU in College Station
For the first time all year, LSU’s offensive line doesn’t win the battle up front. Nic Scourton and Shemar Turner put on a clinic leading Mike Elko’s defense. On the road, a sped-up Garrett Nussmeier turns the ball over 3 times (2 interceptions, 1 fumble) in a game that A&M comes out with something to prove. Weigman, on the other hand, responds to everything that Blake Baker throws at him with a 300-yard, 3-touchdown showing. LSU’s 7-0 start and top-5 ranking go up in smoke at the hands of the wild-card Aggies.
3. Auburn beats Mizzou in Columbia
Just when everyone is praising Mizzou and writing off Auburn, the visiting Tigers pull off a significant upset in Columbia. The backfield depth is Auburn’s biggest weapon against a work-in-progress Mizzou defense. It’s not just Hunter breaking off big runs. Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb both look well-rested coming off the bye week while Mizzou looks like a program that just traveled across the country to play … UMass. A weird day at Faurot Field turns into one of the more head-scratching results of SEC play.
2. Arkansas beats Tennessee in Fayetteville
This is the game that reminds everyone that if you’re not ready for an SEC road game, you’re in trouble. Tennessee, following an emotional loss to Oklahoma and the bye week, falls victim to that. This is the game that Arkansas fans have been waiting to see from Taylen Green. He connects with Luke Hasz and Andrew Armstrong at will against an overmatched Tennessee secondary. Landon Jackson and Arkansas make it a frustrating day for Nico Iamaleava and the high-powered Tennessee offense. The Hogs avoid that dreaded 2-4 start while Tennessee suffers consecutive losses for just the third time in the Josh Heupel era.
1. Florida beats LSU in Gainesville
Just when we think the Gators are in total free-fall after losing 4 in a row to spoil a 5-0 start, they do the unthinkable — they finally end the LSU losing streak. For the first time since 2018, Florida is on the right end of a thriller against the Tigers. Nussmeier struggles with his decision-making on the road while the Gators play like a team that’s happy to be home for the first time in a month. The Gators’ passing attack lights up the LSU secondary in a game that Billy Napier desperately needs to clinch bowl eligibility and avoid another 5-game losing streak. LSU, meanwhile, is suddenly in jeopardy of missing out on the 12-team Playoff after its third consecutive loss.
Way to go O’Gara! This is the ultimate in “efficiency.”
I’ve never before seen the same identical paragraphs used as original words in three different articles.
Don’t know nuthin’ about efficiency, but no way Texas beats Georgia anywhere – Sark couldn’t even carry Kirby’s jock strap on the moon. As much as I love the Aggies (it’s a Texas thang), they aren’t going to beat LSU either …. willing to bet your Social Security check on it?
Not sure I would go all in like you have. I would pick Georgia over Texas. But if Texas beats anybody it is not necessarily an upset or unexpected.
Who couldn’t see this coming with the team record prediction articles ? Copy-paste
This is just more preseason fodder to get replies. These are guesses. Nothing more. You and I could write an article like this and be just as accurate as these so called sports writers.
So, Connor – if you are admittedly writing the column just for fun and expect maybe three of the ten to be correct, which three would you pick?
With everyone writing Auburn off, how then is it an “upset” that Oklahoma would come in and win the game? I am rather new to the SDS website, but some of these things I read from these writers is nonsense…
Because Connor has the IQ of bama fan.
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Hahaha look at this fella go. He is such a trooper always coming on here wanting attention. You would have thought the attention his uncle gave him would have been good enough. You keep doing you young man. We are all proud of the Lib Arts degree you got.
Oh look, right on cue an obese bama fan (not grad) shows up like clockwork.
“We are all proud of the Lib Arts degree you got.”
Got? I done got me one of them there degrees, big mama?
She/her, at least try to come up with better insults.
You are such a trooper. I heard that’s why they called you the “little” engine that could. You keep doing you on here. Don’t feel that calling people she/her is an insult. We all know that is out of respect for your brother or sister? Which one is it? Keep coming back. This is fun.
I have also heard that you are some obese person who is an AC tech. Must be tough for you in the summer carrying all that weight around. Hopefully they give you water. Stay strong!
Poor Ron, he has a severe case of little brother syndrome.
“You keep doing you on here. Don’t feel that calling people she/her is an insult.”
I’m trying to respect you as a female, she/her. Need another tampon?
“I have also heard that you are some obese person who is an AC tech. ”
Lay off the acid, she/her.
“Poor Ron, he has a severe case of little brother syndrome.”
The funniest part of all of this is every one of you idiot bama retards show up.
I own you, clown.
Ron is a fun one. Says he owns people yet keeps coming back for more. The last time I saw someone take a beating this bad and keep coming back was his mother after she burned the roast. Never seen someone take a punch like her.
Kept*
If you owned me I would be responding to your comments on barn articles and trolling you do on other teams. I just show how much Bama owns Tijuana Ron.
Ronnie Mexico. You be nice. Here me son.
I don’t know which is worse, piecing together an article with paragraphs from other articles, or re-posting weeks-old articles as if we won’t remember them.
Conner, I wouldn’t bet more money than I could lose on the SC over UK game if I were you. Go CATS!!!
Most of these upsets aren’t happening. Connor has a history of bad selections.
“Oklahoma beats Auburn in Auburn”
How would that be an upset when OK is ranked?
Is Arky beating the Vols really an upset though? I mean the Vols just aren’t very good.
Only one of these can be classified as highly unlikely, Florida at LSU
What about Texas A&M? If they are good enough to beat LSU, then surely, they are good enough to beat SC….which most people have at the bottom of the conference. I’d say half are unlikely.
Yes, because Florida doesn’t go to LSU. So, it’s very unlikely.
Connor, you’re getting lazy. Do better. Also, why the hate for LSU? I love it, it’ll just make you eat your words later. Keep it up.
LOL. SDS keeping ChatGPT in business.
A&M and Florida beating LSU on their home fields aren’t upsets IMO.
Connor, kudos for trying. At this juncture, everyone is undefeated, but I would say that anyone who beats Georgia isn’t upset.
Big on Oklahoma.
Tennessee will beat OU and Arkansas
Texass beats Georgia.Do not believe that this will happen.Dawgs can shut the run completely.Texass will not pass at will on the dawgs.
Control-C