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Not every preseason take is a home run.
As much as I’d love to say that I knock every preseason prediction out of the park, I occasionally stay in the yard. Hey, singles move the needle, too. Sometimes, bunts even have their place in … nah. I hate bunts. Give me a whiff over a bunt.
In an 8-month offseason, I took a lot of hacks at the plate. After 2 weeks of the regular season, I’m already a bit lukewarm or concerned that I’m behind in the count and a pitch away from a whiff.
OK, enough baseball talk. This is football season.
I’m already worried about these preseason SEC football predictions:
Preseason prediction: Payton Thorne will be the SEC’s most improved player
Why I’m worried — The short answer is “because I have 2 eyeballs and watched him against Cal.” The longer answer is that Thorne was given weapons galore in the passing game, and instead of looking like he was taking a step in Year 2 in the system, he delivered a very 2023-like performance against Cal. Thorne was lost in a 4-interception game. It didn’t help that Auburn couldn’t protect him, but it’s not like Thorne is a statue. His pocket presence was horrendous, and as a result, he looked more like a true freshman than a guy in Year 4 as a college starter. The only way to go is up, but I can’t help but think that Thorne won’t be able to maximize those weapons and Hugh Freeze’s faith in him will be misplaced.
Preseason prediction: Marcus Carroll will lead the SEC in rushing
Why I’m worried — Well, watching that game Thursday night of Week 1, I had a realization. Mizzou was up 21-0 before Carroll saw the field. That wasn’t a disciplinary issue, either. Through 2 weeks, Nate Noel has a 23-18 carries advantage, as well as an 87-42 snaps advantage. Both developments are significant in the whole “Carroll will lead the SEC in rushing” prediction, as is the fact that Carroll is 19th in the SEC in rushing after a pair of favorable matchups. The SEC leading rusher in the 2020s averaged at least 19 carries per game. Carroll won’t get there without an injury or a drastic change in philosophy.
Preseason prediction: Conner Weigman will be an All-SEC selection and first-round prospect by season’s end
Why I’m worried — That Notre Dame game was rough, which Weigman admitted. It’s not to say that he can’t become one of the SEC’s best quarterbacks, but he looked totally perplexed against Notre Dame’s defense. That group will do that to plenty of quarterbacks, though it failed to get a late stop to prevent Northern Illinois from upsetting the Irish as a 28-point underdog in South Bend. Weigman’s ability to process was a strength entering the season. Working with Collin Klein, I still like the odds that he’ll be able to improve, but that opener was a reminder that Weigman isn’t a finished product, which could be a tough combination with an unproven offensive line.
Preseason prediction: Walker Howard will get multiple starts for Ole Miss
Why I’m worried — Don’t get it twisted. I predicted this under the notion that the normally durable Jaxson Dart would take one of those unnecessary hits that would knock him out of action and give Howard his first career starts. So why am I bailing on that? Because Howard isn’t even second-string. The former LSU transfer who was once expected to be the QB of the future is now QB3 behind Dart and redshirt freshman Austin Simmons. The southpaw played nearly the entire second half of the opener while Howard played the final 6 snaps. At this rate, if Howard starts multiple games for Ole Miss, all hell has broken loose for Lane Kiffin.
Preseason prediction: DJ Lagway won’t start a game in a Florida uniform
Why I’m worried — Um, because he already debunked that. Duh. I didn’t forecast a Week 1 injury to Graham Mertz. I instead forecasted Billy Napier to start the veteran signal-caller every week while fans clamored for more Lagway, who would hit the portal after Napier’s firing in 2024. That could still play out. We’ll see how Napier handles Mertz moving forward after Lagway dazzled in his first career start, albeit against FCS competition. If Mertz returns against Texas A&M and falters, how tight will that leash be? That, we don’t know. My mistake in that prediction was that I should’ve made it “DJ Lagway won’t start a game in a Florida uniform as long as Graham Mertz is healthy.”
Preseason prediction: Oklahoma will go 9-3
Why I’m worried — I’m not bailing just yet because I think that despite the frustrating start for the Oklahoma offense — the starters didn’t have a first-down conversion in the opener — Brent Venables’ defense is capable of doing the heavy lifting. What concerns me is how banged up the Oklahoma offense already appears. Multiple injuries on the line to start the year wasn’t ideal, nor was Jalil Farooq breaking his foot in the opener. Look at all these offensive injuries that Oklahoma is dealing with in early September:
Oklahoma’s offense needs a healing miracle right now
Nic Anderson (#2 WR)
❌ Jalil Farooq (#3 WR)
❌ Jayden Gibson (#4 WR)
Andrel Anthony (#5 WR)
Brenen Thompson (#6 WR)
Jaquaize Pettaway (#7 WR)
Branson Hickman (#1 C)
Troy Everett (#2 C)
Geirean Hatchett…— The Main Line Podcast (@TheMainLinePod) September 9, 2024
It’ would be one thing if Oklahoma had a veteran starting quarterback or a forgiving schedule. The Sooners don’t have either working in their favor. Getting to 9-3 with an offense that overcomes those injuries would be no small feat.
Preseason prediction: Ryan Williams won’t hit 500 receiving yards
Why I’m worried — Trust me, I wasn’t and am not anti-Williams. I didn’t like that the 5-star Alabama freshman wideout was being likened to the next Julio Jones or Amari Cooper when in reality, even 2015 freshman Calvin Ridley was a massive outlier at the position. Since 2016, the only SEC true freshman wide receiver to hit 800 receiving yards in a season was Jaylen Waddle, who got the benefit of 15 games and averaged 56.5 yards. To recap, during an 8-year stretch (2016-23) when the SEC endured a golden era of wide receiver talent, the best season for a true freshman wide receiver came from a guy who averaged 56.5 yards/game. So not predicting a 17-year-old to break through from the jump didn’t feel like disrespect.
But after seeing Williams break through with 207 yards (34.5 yards/catch) and 3 touchdowns in his first 2 games, I’ll admit his odds of having 293 receiving yards in his next 11 games (to reach 500) feel extremely likely. Barring injury, Williams will exceed the too-low bar I set for him.
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Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
