O'Gara: The ceiling for each SEC team in 2024
I’m offering up a disclaimer. I believe 8 SEC teams have Playoff upside in 2024.
That’s a weird sentence, though it’s much less weird in the 12-team Playoff era. That’s not my way of saying that I expect half the conference — remember that it’s 16 teams now — to make the Playoff. More likely is that closer to 4 teams make the field.
I do, however, think there’s a difference between saying that a team has “Playoff upside” vs. saying that a team should make the field. There’s a line.
Many things can determine a ceiling. Strength of schedule — at least how it’s perceived in the preseason — is part of that. Returning production is big, as is the continuity with the coaching staff. If it’s just about 1 thing, you’re probably not looking at the full picture when it comes to determining a program’s ceiling.
Here’s how I view the regular season ceiling for each SEC team in 2024:
Alabama — 11-1 ceiling
The over/under on Alabama’s regular season wins at 9.5 (via DraftKings) because as respected as Kalen DeBoer is, it’s still a new coaching staff with a challenging schedule to navigate. But no returning player finished higher in the 2023 Heisman Trophy voting than Jalen Milroe, so even in the likely event that the defense isn’t at the Nick Saban standard, the floor is still tremendously high. I don’t think it’s realistic to give Alabama a 12-0 ceiling with games vs. Georgia, at Tennessee, at LSU and at Oklahoma.
Arkansas — 7-5 ceiling
It all comes down to the Taylen Green-Bobby Petrino marriage being a happy one. So far, so good. Pre-spring, this was a 6-6 ceiling. Post-spring, I’m talking myself into a much-improved offensive line with a more hands-on Sam Pittman, along with some defensive scheme continuity being important. As bad as last year was, 5 of those losses were by 1 score. Arkansas won’t sniff 7-5 without an A&M win in Arlington and at least 1 home upset, but I won’t rule that out for a team that only suffered 2 blowout losses in each of the last 2 seasons.
Auburn — 8-4 ceiling
A pair of new coordinators and a not-new quarterback is why the Tigers don’t have 9-3 upside. Let’s also remember that this program hasn’t beaten a Power 5 team that finished with a winning record since Oct. 30, 2021 vs. Ole Miss. Since then, Auburn is 0-17 vs. Power 5 teams that finished with a winning record. But maybe a more talented receiver room for Payton Thorne combined with Hugh Freeze reclaiming play-calling duties will end that drought.
Florida — 7-5 ceiling
I almost went with 8-4, but I can’t because a team with 3 consecutive losing seasons doesn’t have an 8-4 ceiling with a schedule that brutal. Just in case you forgot, 5 teams who finished in the top 12 of the AP Poll await, which doesn’t include a trip to Tennessee or a home game against a Kentucky team that won the last 3 matchups. I do think the Gators will improve, and I find myself buying into the quarterback situation more and more with another year of Graham Mertz and the promising DJ Lagway. A slight improvement on offense feels likely. Defensive improvement should’ve come 3 years ago, yet here we are still waiting on that.
Georgia — 12-0 ceiling
It’s a team with 2 losses (and 2 titles) in the last 3 seasons, both of which were to Alabama in the SEC Championship. A 12-0 ceiling is the only answer.
Kentucky — 8-4 ceiling
Two things can be true at the same time. One is that Mark Stoops has undoubtedly elevated the floor of UK in a significant way. The other is that 2 wins vs. SEC teams who finished with a winning conference record in the Stoops era means the ceiling is still limited. My guess is that 4 UK opponents will start in the top 15, 3 of which will be matchups away from home with the other being against Georgia. Even if Deone Walker is the second coming of Jalen Carter and Brock Vandagriff is the second coming of Will Levis, it’s hard to envision anything more than 8-4.
LSU — 10-2 ceiling
I was tempted to go with 11-1, but that spring game didn’t make me feel great about the notion that defense improvement is imminent under the well-paid new DC Blake Baker. The good news is that when you look at the schedule and see the road schedule features just 1 bowl team — that excludes the USC opener — it’s hard not to be optimistic. Brian Kelly has perhaps the best offensive line in the country, which will help a new-look offense with Garrett Nussmeier finally running the show. Nussmeier’s ceiling is immensely high, especially if the defense can just flirt with mediocrity and avoid putting him in the spots Jayden Daniels was in.
Mississippi State — 6-6 ceiling
It’s a Year 0 for Jeff Lebby. Period. Having 41 players enter the portal since the end of the 2022 season is significant, especially when the Bulldogs don’t recruit at a top-10 level like LSU or Tennessee. I worry about the defense more than anything. It’s No. 132 in percentage of returning defensive production after Zach Arnett ran that unit the last 4 years. That’s why this feels more like a 2017 Ole Miss team, who had a fun offense at times, but was 6-6.
Mizzou — 10-2 ceiling
What a time to be alive. Mizzou’s offensive ceiling is top 10 nationally. That’s how impressed I was with Kirby Moore as the OC last year. The questions are on the defensive side of the ball, where the Tigers lost 5 players to the NFL Draft, as well as DC Blake Baker and edge rushers coach Kevin Peoples. But Mizzou could be what LSU was last year. The schedule sets up well with just 1 game vs. a team that played in a New Year’s 6 Bowl last year and 2 Power 5 foes with a winning record in conference play. That’s as ideal as it gets.
Oklahoma — 9-3 ceiling
If not for Florida, we’d all be talking about Oklahoma’s schedule. It’s a nightmare. You’ve got 6 teams who won at least 9 games last year, 4 of which were in a New Year’s 6/Playoff game in 2023. That’s tough, especially for a team that’s undergoing a major offensive shift outside of that loaded group of pass-catchers. If preseason All-Americans Danny Stutsman and Billy Bowman Jr. can turn this into a true Brent Venables defense, that path to 9-3 and Playoff consideration exists.
Ole Miss — 11-1 ceiling
Entering 2023, Lane Kiffin was searching for his first win against a Power 5 team who won at least 9 regular season games since 2012. Then he beat LSU and Penn State en route to the program’s first 11-win season, thus, dunking on my stat. So yes, an 11-1 ceiling exists for a team that dominated the transfer portal with Princely Umanmielen, Walter Nolen, Chris Paul Jr., Juice Wells and Logan Diggs, just to name a few. Georgia is the only game on that schedule that I don’t have confidence in Ole Miss winning. Getting to an SEC Championship for the first time is possible.
South Carolina — 7-5 ceiling
It’s a schedule with 6 matchups against teams who won at least 9 games in 2023. That’s not including a matchup at Kentucky, or a matchup vs. an A&M team that South Carolina has 1 win against since they became annual rivals. That’s tough. That’s also why the over/under is 5.5 wins. So going for 7 wins would be LaNorris Sellers and Rocket Sanders being a dynamic 1-2 punch with the Gamecocks greatly improving in the trenches on both sides of the ball. That, plus Beamer Ball, can get the Gamecocks to a 7-win regular season.
Tennessee — 10-2 ceiling
The Vols might have the best returning defensive player in the country in James Pearce Jr. There are questions behind that defensive line, but the improvement we saw from Tim Banks’ unit in 2023 bodes well for 2024, especially if it coincides with Josh Heupel’s offense getting back to its standard. Nico Iamaleava’s ceiling is immensely high in a Heupel offense, which had 5 consecutive top-8 units before 2023. At Oklahoma, vs. Alabama and at Georgia are the toughest games, but going 1-2 in that stretch and avoiding another letdown at least feels possible.
Texas — 12-0 ceiling
I never thought I’d be the guy saying Texas could realistically have an undefeated regular season, but here we are. A Playoff team that’s returning ranked No. 2 in the SEC and No. 25 nationally in percentage of returning production has national championship upside. The toughest road game is at Michigan, which is undergoing a massive transition in a post-Jim Harbaugh world. Of course, the highly anticipated Georgia game awaits, though that’s in Austin. There are challenging games like the revenge game vs. Oklahoma and the long-awaited return to College Station, but the Year 1 SEC schedule could produce a 12-0 Texas.
Texas A&M — 8-4 ceiling
The Aggies have 2 things working in their favor. One is that all of their biggest games (Notre Dame, Mizzou, LSU and Texas) are at home and nobody that they play away from home had a winning record in 2023. A&M also ranks No. 1 in the SEC in percentage of returning production with a team that updated at the head coaching spot. The questions are on the offensive line and the non-defensive line pieces of Elko’s defense, but there’s a lot to like if Conner Weigman can stay healthy and if Nic Scourton forms an elite pass-rushing duo with Shemar Stewart. So why isn’t it a higher ceiling than the proverbial 8-4? Well, A&M lost 10 consecutive true road games entering 2024. Until that fades, 12-team Playoff upside isn’t realistic.
Vanderbilt — 4-8 ceiling
Entering 2024, Vandy is:
- A) Seeking to end a 10-game losing streak vs. Core 4 opponents
- B) Replacing both coordinators
- C) Dealing with 25 players lost via the transfer portal
- D) Stay within single digits vs. SEC competition for the first time since Nov. 19, 2022 vs. Florida
- E) All the above
Even if Diego Pavia or Nate Johnson step in and provide some juice at quarterback, it’s hard to have faith in a Clark Lea defense that has yet to finish better than No. 119 in scoring defense. Beating Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State feels realistic, but predicting multiple Core 4 victories doesn’t.
Might have been better to have not published this, wait for the 2024 regular season to conclude and then change it to reflect reality ….. t proclaiming, “Hey, look what I found from May but forgot to send in!”. :)
Doc, respectfully, if your talking about the Gators – that schedule is your undoing. I think the team will be better, but not that much better. There are still too many holes and a nasty, nasty schedule for two consecutive years – I don’t think Billy survives.
Doc, you are absolutely correct. Our Gators are in a position that only benefits us. Everyone expects us to lose at least 5 games. Some even think we should forfeit the season. A lot of Gaga’s running around screaming CBN is in over his head. How can we possibly win any games! I might play it safe and cheer on Florida A&M.
Go Rattlesnakes!
Look to how cleanly the OL, D and STs play after the offseason coaching staff shake-up Marsh. If we see a drastic reduction in stupid, coaching induced missed assignments and penalties this season, the Gators may surprise a few folks. If not, UF will be shopping for a new HC by November.
I believe O’Gara’s assessment of LSU is fair. I watched the spring game on the tube and saw the same thing…too many blown coverages resulting in big plays. If it was just Nuss making the plays, I’d say it was the QB. But each of the 4 QBs had some big plays. The defense, until it proves otherwise will continue to be suspect. But in reality, spring games really prove nothing. I have faith that the defensive coach staff that Kelly has put together will round the D into shape before the start of the season.
Did some LSU fans remember saying they will beat FSU after losing a close one to FSU the year before.
Plus, LSU fans saying the defense will be much better.
Now this time with a whole new staff on defensive the team shall be light years better. I think they will be better but how much better. I do not think they will be a top 20 defense unit this coming season. too many players to replace and a whole new staff on defense and then there is a new OC. It probably will be hard to make the adjustments quickly. More likely next year will be better.
Mizzou could be favored to win every game on their schedule next year (depending how the first part of the season goes). Not likely, but when you are talking “Ceiling” best possible outcome, I believe you maybe selling the Tigers short.
Yes we lost a lot of defense production but look what we brought in. Also, our offense is loaded with talent and experience. 10-2 is a reasonable prediction for our record, but I would argue our ceiling is 11-1 (just because 12-0 seems overly optimistic).
Yeah, it’s the typical lowballing on Mizzou. Basically they aren’t paying attention to what’s happening with Mizzou and just assuming that there will be some sort of dropoff from the previous year because no way Mizzou can sustain success. Quite frankly 12-0 IS Mizzou’s ceiling because there’s not a guaranteed loss on the schedule. That’s the definition of ceiling.
I believe O’Gara was very reasonable in his ceiling forecast for Mizzou. No program not named Georgia or Alabama can lose 5 NFL DCs on D, plus their defensive HC and not be expect a drop-off. After all, unlike Saban and Smart, Drink is not a defensive HC. So, the defensive reloading and continuity will depend entirely on a new DC. Hence the lower ceiling prediction for Mizzou.
That said, the CoMO Tigers are blessed with the easiest schedule in the SEC. If the reloaded OL can hold its own, the Tiger O should be as prolific as LSU’s was last year. However, look at LSU’s W/L record for guidance to what could happen to Mizzou this season.
I think our ceiling is undercooked by 1. 4-0 in non-conference (which would mean a W at OkSt) and 4-4 in conference (which would mean 2 W’s away from home and 2 upsets at home). We are truly improved in every area and could be a very pleasant 8-4 surprise in the SEC.
I’ll be honest though, if things go south like last season, a 3-8 floor would be the nightmare scenario.
Texas is a good team with a very favorable schedule. We welcomed OU and Texas to the SEC in very different ways.
If they can beat OU and UGA on back-to-back weeks, they’ll make a believer out of me.
The top half of the conference has a ceiling of 12-0. All you have to do is look at 2010 Auburn, 2019 LSU, 2023 Michigan. Teams have miracle years. I’m not sure you know what ceiling means.
I think he is trying to be realistic. Technically, everyone has a 12-0 ceiling, even Vandy.
Predicting Arkansas’ record these days is like trying to point north in the middle of a twister- just keep pointing and you’ll be right several times a minute.
I don’t think the conference will have an undefeated team this season. Or the B1G, for that matter. Even the more manageable schedules are still tough by most season’s standards. I think we will see at least two 9 win teams in the playoffs.
I agree. It also will be interesting to see how the coaches navigate the season, knowing they can gave a loss or two, or even three, and still be in. Takes the importance of e very game and drops it a notch.
Regarding the Aggies, I have no problem with everyone being in “wait and see” mode after the Jimbo experiment failed so spectacularly, so I don’t have any heartburn with the ceiling projection of 8 & 4. With that said, Connor’s reasoning has to do with Jimbo’s pathetic road record. I don’t believe Jimbo’s road record will have any bearing on Elko’s team.
Aggie positives this season:
1. I trust Elko to get more from his players than Jimbo did, and players not committed seem to have been shown the door. Read that as improvement of culture added to the high level of talent still here.
2. Incoming portal players allow a quicker transformation of culture in #1. This applies to every team having good coaching.
3. The new S&C staff (Tommy Moffitt) will help long term, and we will likely start to see an improvement this season.
4. Elko and Klein will put them in a better position to compete than in recent years.
5. Easier schedule than in recent years.
No problem at all with “wait and see”, but those are my thoughts.
Georgia and Texas have the most likely highest ceilings. Georgia with coaching and player continuity. Texas with the same + an easier schedule.
Next level is Bama with lots of new coaches and enough new players to wonder a little bit. Ole Miss can Kiff finally put it together and make the playoff… Mizzou – should be another very good O but new DC and new D players,
Next level LSU- Nuss and the O should be good but the D is a question until it’s not. UT – Nico will be a star. Is it this season or next. Lots of weapons. D once again may determine how far they go. It’s better all around but like LSU it’s a question until it’s not. ATM- new staff may be difficult to overcome for a high ceiling. OK- new QB and the HC decision making will likely pkay the larger roles in determining the ceiling.
4th level is everyone else.
Wow Fuzzy. You got Tennessee at Tier 3?? I agree you with you.
I don’t. The Vols are just the worst and should be in the cellar. They just aren’t very good.
The disparity of the schedules in the SEC and the B1G is troubling. What do you expect when you do not play close to half of a conference’s teams in a season? If the PO Committee does not pay attention to SOS, not just Ws and Ls, teams with more difficult schedules will be hosed over.
In the B1G per College Football News calculation, USC has the #1 SOS in the nation (Gators 2nd,) Michigan 5, Oregon 11, Penn State 14, and OHIO STATE 57!
In the SEC Texas’s schedule compared to Oklahoma’s schedule is a cakewalk that will be duplicated in 2025. Mizzou’s schedule, OOC, and in-conference is a joke.
Does a Mizzou team that finishes 10-2 deserve to be in the PO over a Michigan team that finishes 9-3?
Will the Committee, with SOS determined in the mind of each Committee member, be willing and able to evaluate SOS when making the final ranking on 12/3/24? Millions of dollars are at stake. BTW, Liberty’s SOS is ranked 134 out of 134 teams. I don’t care if Liberty goes 13-0, it has no business being the G5 representative.
Going from a 6-6 format to a 5-7 format was an improvement but why will champion teams from the ACC and B12 receive a 1st round bye? No other postseason tournament on earth has this kind of structure.
IMO, the move from 4 to 12 teams will put more pressure on the Committee. Using the Committee’s final 2023 ranking, and adjusting for realignment, 14 Arizona and not 4 Bama would have a bye, and lower-ranked Arizona would knock out 11 Ole Miss, with 12. Oklahoma knocked out by Liberty. How high would this have bounced in SEC HQ in Birmingham?
The SEC would have lost millions of post-season dollars.
More FSU-like conundrums are on the way.
PS – Do conference champ games make sense when a loss could knock out a playoff team in favor of a team from another conference? Get rid of these games and play 9 conference games to lower the odds of there being teams tied for a conference title.
Too much money involved to make those changes.
Brevity Tolstoy. We already have Negan here.
Difference is, dixieduck makes good points. Negan never has.
Some good points just too long for SDS.
“We already have Negan here.”
DixieDuck isn’t a retard. Try harder.
Hello Ronnie Tijuana. Hope you are doing well.
Dixie. To long winded. Keep it to two paragraph’s. Or not. Up to you.
Not as long winded as your wife…she can blow all night long out in the parking lot behind Denny’s
“Auburn — 8-4 ceiling”
Agreed.
Also, TX isn’t going 12-0.
Tier 1:
Georgia 12-0
Tier 2:
LSU 12-0, because they don’t play Georgia
Mizzou 12-0, because they don’t play Georgia
Alabama 11-1, because they have to play Georgia
Ole Miss 11-1, because they have to play Georgia
Tennessee 11-1, because they have to play Georgia
Texas 11-1, because they have to play Georgia
Tier 3:
Everyone else, except Vandy
Tier 4:
Vandy
this feels like bait
Yeah, it did to me, too. But I posted it anyway. I do think it’s Georgia, then everyone else. Georgia has possibly the best QB in the SEC, the most talent-laden team around him, and a coaching staff second to none. They look like the obvious favorite.
I agree with this assessment.
For Ole Miss, when you said “Getting to an SEC Championship for the first time is possible”, I assume you meant that getting to an SEC Championship Game for the first time is possible. Ole Miss has won six SEC Championships, but they were all before the addition of a championship game. Words matter.
When was Ole Miss’ last football SEC championship? 1963 wasn’t it? Geez, Louise…that’s a long time.
“long time” is a very relative statement, but regardless it has nothing to do with my post.
I agree, words do matter. But, if you KNOW what the person means, then there’s no reason to be LITERAL..now is it?
I asked you a question because I wanted to know..apparently, I am correct with the last time they did. Going on 61 years…I’m not being rude, but yeah, that is a really long drought.
DAWG10,MARSH: I really wasn’t referring to the Gators in particular since this is an SEC page and I was responding in general – tongue in cheek – to early predictions overall. That said, the conventional wisdom is that the Gators and CBN are doomed by the schedule – particularly in the context that we’re only two years into a probable four year rebuild following the residuals of Dan Mullen (despite his promising start).
There’s another context though, largely unrecognized and certainly not accredited by those not tuned in specifically to Florida football on a day-to-day basis. Clearly, Napier is prematurely faced with a tough 3rd year schedule, and his own developmental liabilities in the SEC as demonstrated have contributed to the challenges that poses to his longevity in Gainesville. But it’s also “his” team now, the talent is there, assistants have been rotated or changed IAW his philosophy whether fans understand it or not, and likewise he’s either up to it or not.
I think he is, and ironically the schedule may work in the Gator’s favor from an underdog/motivational standpoint. The deadwood has been culled and these young men want to win. That’s what Napier and his staff have to harness. If they do, the ceiling may be as high as 9-3. 8-4 allowing for the unexpected hiccup, but anything south of that won’t cut it. Put another way, when your back is to the wall and the enemy is less than 600 meters from the wire, you either come out swinging or die trying.
DISCLAIMER: No Dawgs or Seminoles were injured in the production of this meme. :)
“I don’t think it’s realistic to give Alabama a 12-0 ceiling with games vs. Georgia, at Tennessee, at LSU and at Oklahoma.“
The Standard is still 12-0.
It’s the Bama way to think like that, even with a Saban built roster. But I just don’t see it happening this year. Between the schedule and the movement of players and coaches, I think it’s going to be too much for this years Bama team to overcome.
@Wisconsin
Georgia
@Tennessee
Missouri
@LSU
@Oklahoma
Auburn
That’s tough. Especially when you have a new head coach that lost his play caller that’s been by his side for about 15 years and at multiple schools. That’s the biggest factor (IMO) for Bama’s upcoming season. Can DeBoer call plays like Grubb did at Washington?
All of those games are winnable.
This year’s LSU-Bama game seems to be as evenly matched…like the 2019 teams, but with more unknowns, and not as highly touted.
Still, both are expected to contend for national titles. But, if you had to pick one that is in a better position, I would go with LSU.
All losable too you fncking cheese d!cl
I thoroughly agree ma’am, is it likely to go undefeated? No. UGA is the #1 threat, Tenn at Knox is a tough one this year, and Baton Rouge is no easy place to play. I think there’s more than enough talent to get it done, but coaching and discipline will define the season.
This writer just threw some shat on ceiling to what would stick.
Sounds like your $ex life