I’m offering up a disclaimer. I believe 8 SEC teams have Playoff upside in 2024.

That’s a weird sentence, though it’s much less weird in the 12-team Playoff era. That’s not my way of saying that I expect half the conference — remember that it’s 16 teams now — to make the Playoff. More likely is that closer to 4 teams make the field.

I do, however, think there’s a difference between saying that a team has “Playoff upside” vs. saying that a team should make the field. There’s a line.

Many things can determine a ceiling. Strength of schedule — at least how it’s perceived in the preseason — is part of that. Returning production is big, as is the continuity with the coaching staff. If it’s just about 1 thing, you’re probably not looking at the full picture when it comes to determining a program’s ceiling.

Here’s how I view the regular season ceiling for each SEC team in 2024:

Alabama — 11-1 ceiling

The over/under on Alabama’s regular season wins at 9.5 (via DraftKings) because as respected as Kalen DeBoer is, it’s still a new coaching staff with a challenging schedule to navigate. But no returning player finished higher in the 2023 Heisman Trophy voting than Jalen Milroe, so even in the likely event that the defense isn’t at the Nick Saban standard, the floor is still tremendously high. I don’t think it’s realistic to give Alabama a 12-0 ceiling with games vs. Georgia, at Tennessee, at LSU and at Oklahoma.

Arkansas — 7-5 ceiling

It all comes down to the Taylen Green-Bobby Petrino marriage being a happy one. So far, so good. Pre-spring, this was a 6-6 ceiling. Post-spring, I’m talking myself into a much-improved offensive line with a more hands-on Sam Pittman, along with some defensive scheme continuity being important. As bad as last year was, 5 of those losses were by 1 score. Arkansas won’t sniff 7-5 without an A&M win in Arlington and at least 1 home upset, but I won’t rule that out for a team that only suffered 2 blowout losses in each of the last 2 seasons.

Auburn — 8-4 ceiling

A pair of new coordinators and a not-new quarterback is why the Tigers don’t have 9-3 upside. Let’s also remember that this program hasn’t beaten a Power 5 team that finished with a winning record since Oct. 30, 2021 vs. Ole Miss. Since then, Auburn is 0-17 vs. Power 5 teams that finished with a winning record. But maybe a more talented receiver room for Payton Thorne combined with Hugh Freeze reclaiming play-calling duties will end that drought.

Florida — 7-5 ceiling

I almost went with 8-4, but I can’t because a team with 3 consecutive losing seasons doesn’t have an 8-4 ceiling with a schedule that brutal. Just in case you forgot, 5 teams who finished in the top 12 of the AP Poll await, which doesn’t include a trip to Tennessee or a home game against a Kentucky team that won the last 3 matchups. I do think the Gators will improve, and I find myself buying into the quarterback situation more and more with another year of Graham Mertz and the promising DJ Lagway. A slight improvement on offense feels likely. Defensive improvement should’ve come 3 years ago, yet here we are still waiting on that.

Georgia — 12-0 ceiling

It’s a team with 2 losses (and 2 titles) in the last 3 seasons, both of which were to Alabama in the SEC Championship. A 12-0 ceiling is the only answer.

Kentucky — 8-4 ceiling

Two things can be true at the same time. One is that Mark Stoops has undoubtedly elevated the floor of UK in a significant way. The other is that 2 wins vs. SEC teams who finished with a winning conference record in the Stoops era means the ceiling is still limited. My guess is that 4 UK opponents will start in the top 15, 3 of which will be matchups away from home with the other being against Georgia. Even if Deone Walker is the second coming of Jalen Carter and Brock Vandagriff is the second coming of Will Levis, it’s hard to envision anything more than 8-4.

LSU — 10-2 ceiling

I was tempted to go with 11-1, but that spring game didn’t make me feel great about the notion that defense improvement is imminent under the well-paid new DC Blake Baker. The good news is that when you look at the schedule and see the road schedule features just 1 bowl team — that excludes the USC opener — it’s hard not to be optimistic. Brian Kelly has perhaps the best offensive line in the country, which will help a new-look offense with Garrett Nussmeier finally running the show. Nussmeier’s ceiling is immensely high, especially if the defense can just flirt with mediocrity and avoid putting him in the spots Jayden Daniels was in.

Mississippi State — 6-6 ceiling

It’s a Year 0 for Jeff Lebby. Period. Having 41 players enter the portal since the end of the 2022 season is significant, especially when the Bulldogs don’t recruit at a top-10 level like LSU or Tennessee. I worry about the defense more than anything. It’s No. 132 in percentage of returning defensive production after Zach Arnett ran that unit the last 4 years. That’s why this feels more like a 2017 Ole Miss team, who had a fun offense at times, but was 6-6.

Mizzou — 10-2 ceiling

What a time to be alive. Mizzou’s offensive ceiling is top 10 nationally. That’s how impressed I was with Kirby Moore as the OC last year. The questions are on the defensive side of the ball, where the Tigers lost 5 players to the NFL Draft, as well as DC Blake Baker and edge rushers coach Kevin Peoples. But Mizzou could be what LSU was last year. The schedule sets up well with just 1 game vs. a team that played in a New Year’s 6 Bowl last year and 2 Power 5 foes with a winning record in conference play. That’s as ideal as it gets.

Oklahoma — 9-3 ceiling

If not for Florida, we’d all be talking about Oklahoma’s schedule. It’s a nightmare. You’ve got 6 teams who won at least 9 games last year, 4 of which were in a New Year’s 6/Playoff game in 2023. That’s tough, especially for a team that’s undergoing a major offensive shift outside of that loaded group of pass-catchers. If preseason All-Americans Danny Stutsman and Billy Bowman Jr. can turn this into a true Brent Venables defense, that path to 9-3 and Playoff consideration exists.

Ole Miss — 11-1 ceiling

Entering 2023, Lane Kiffin was searching for his first win against a Power 5 team who won at least 9 regular season games since 2012. Then he beat LSU and Penn State en route to the program’s first 11-win season, thus, dunking on my stat. So yes, an 11-1 ceiling exists for a team that dominated the transfer portal with Princely Umanmielen, Walter Nolen, Chris Paul Jr., Juice Wells and Logan Diggs, just to name a few. Georgia is the only game on that schedule that I don’t have confidence in Ole Miss winning. Getting to an SEC Championship for the first time is possible.

South Carolina — 7-5 ceiling

It’s a schedule with 6 matchups against teams who won at least 9 games in 2023. That’s not including a matchup at Kentucky, or a matchup vs. an A&M team that South Carolina has 1 win against since they became annual rivals. That’s tough. That’s also why the over/under is 5.5 wins. So going for 7 wins would be LaNorris Sellers and Rocket Sanders being a dynamic 1-2 punch with the Gamecocks greatly improving in the trenches on both sides of the ball. That, plus Beamer Ball, can get the Gamecocks to a 7-win regular season.

Tennessee — 10-2 ceiling

The Vols might have the best returning defensive player in the country in James Pearce Jr. There are questions behind that defensive line, but the improvement we saw from Tim Banks’ unit in 2023 bodes well for 2024, especially if it coincides with Josh Heupel’s offense getting back to its standard. Nico Iamaleava’s ceiling is immensely high in a Heupel offense, which had 5 consecutive top-8 units before 2023. At Oklahoma, vs. Alabama and at Georgia are the toughest games, but going 1-2 in that stretch and avoiding another letdown at least feels possible.

Texas — 12-0 ceiling

I never thought I’d be the guy saying Texas could realistically have an undefeated regular season, but here we are. A Playoff team that’s returning ranked No. 2 in the SEC and No. 25 nationally in percentage of returning production has national championship upside. The toughest road game is at Michigan, which is undergoing a massive transition in a post-Jim Harbaugh world. Of course, the highly anticipated Georgia game awaits, though that’s in Austin. There are challenging games like the revenge game vs. Oklahoma and the long-awaited return to College Station, but the Year 1 SEC schedule could produce a 12-0 Texas.

Texas A&M — 8-4 ceiling

The Aggies have 2 things working in their favor. One is that all of their biggest games (Notre Dame, Mizzou, LSU and Texas) are at home and nobody that they play away from home had a winning record in 2023. A&M also ranks No. 1 in the SEC in percentage of returning production with a team that updated at the head coaching spot. The questions are on the offensive line and the non-defensive line pieces of Elko’s defense, but there’s a lot to like if Conner Weigman can stay healthy and if Nic Scourton forms an elite pass-rushing duo with Shemar Stewart. So why isn’t it a higher ceiling than the proverbial 8-4? Well, A&M lost 10 consecutive true road games entering 2024. Until that fades, 12-team Playoff upside isn’t realistic.

Vanderbilt — 4-8 ceiling

Entering 2024, Vandy is:

  • A) Seeking to end a 10-game losing streak vs. Core 4 opponents
  • B) Replacing both coordinators
  • C) Dealing with 25 players lost via the transfer portal
  • D) Stay within single digits vs. SEC competition for the first time since Nov. 19, 2022 vs. Florida
  • E) All the above

Even if Diego Pavia or Nate Johnson step in and provide some juice at quarterback, it’s hard to have faith in a Clark Lea defense that has yet to finish better than No. 119 in scoring defense. Beating Alcorn State, Georgia State and Ball State feels realistic, but predicting multiple Core 4 victories doesn’t.