Pick-6: Utah's loss creates possible opening. Playoff or bust for conference championship contenders
Imagine how electric today would be if every team took the field knowing it was one victory from clinching a Playoff berth.
That’s not the reality of course — and maybe that’s why the get-in price for some of the other Power 5 conference championship games started at $30. Oregon rediscovered that lesson Friday night — obliterating Utah for the Pac-12 championship but having nothing more to celebrate than a trophy and a nice bowl destination but zero chance of making the Playoff field.
SEC teams have it much better. Georgia and LSU will meet for the SEC title, and, for the 3rd consecutive year, the winner is guaranteed to make the Playoff field.
The stakes are just bigger — as are the after-market ticket prices, which started at more than $200.
Here are the 6 most interesting topics I’ll be following today during championship weekend.
1. Yes, Georgia can keep it close
Kirby Smart is the best defensive mind in the game.
He found a way to finally slow down Baker Mayfield after Oklahoma scored 31 points in the opening half — but just 17 more in 2 quarters and 2 OTs.
He found a way to slow down Jalen Hurts.
He found a way to slow down Tua Tagovailoa.
True enough, Georgia lost both of those games to Alabama, but it wasn’t because of the defense. It was because Georgia’s offense couldn’t score when it mattered most in the second half of those games. Georgia scored 1 TD after halftime of the 2017 National Championship Game and 1 TD after halftime of the 2018 SEC Championship Game.
Georgia’s defense will hold Joe Burrow below his season averages — 363 yards, almost 4 TD passes. The Dawgs might even join Auburn as the only teams to hold LSU under 30 points.
It won’t matter unless Jake Fromm gets Georgia to 28.
2. How many fumbles can Georgia force and recover?
I think the target number is to recover 2 fumbles.
Joe Burrow is too careful with his throws to expect the passing game to cough up 2 mistakes, and Georgia only has 6 interceptions this season, anyway.
The problem is, as great as Georgia’s defense has been, it hasn’t been a takeaway machine. The Dawgs have only forced 14 fumbles and only recovered 7. LSU has only fumbled 10 times and only lost 5. Burrow protects the football even when scrambling. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a bull who has lost just 1 fumble. The receivers typically are strong with the football.
Georgia’s defense swarms. Look for the 2nd and 3rd defender to attack the football with purpose today, more so and more obviously than against any other opponent.
3. Is there a margin Ohio State has to hit to stay No. 1?
I blasted the committee’s unjustifiable, made-for-TV decision to rank Wisconsin No. 8.
There’s just no other way to describe that other than by calling it a joke.
Wisconsin lost to Ohio State by 31, but even damning, lost to an unranked Illinois team that finished 6-6. There’s no way Wisconsin should be No. 8 in the country.
But if you’re Ohio State, it certainly looks better to beat the No. 8 team in the country than, say, the No. 11 or 12 team.
Ohio State has only played 1 team ranked higher than No. 10 all season. It beat then-No. 8 Penn State.
LSU has beaten 4 teams ranked No. 9 or higher and now gets a shot at No. 4 Georgia.
Ohio State isn’t No. 1 because of its résumé. It’s No. 1 because the committee has been impressed with their overall dominance. What happens, if after losing by 31, Wisconsin stays within 14 points Saturday? Will that be enough for the Buckeyes to stay No. 1?
4. Is there any chance Clemson falls to No. 4?
Yes, but my guess is the committee would do anything possible to avoid a 2 vs. 3 SEC rematch in the semifinal.
The committee hasn’t been terribly impressed with the Tigers’ résumé, either, certainly not as impressed as I’ve been with the Tigers.
But if Virginia, which has a dynamic QB of its own in dual-threat Bryce Perkins, can stay within 10 points and Georgia beats LSU at the gun on a Rodrigo Blankenship 47-yarder, I could see the committee going:
1. Ohio State, 2. Georgia, 3. LSU and 4. Clemson.
Again, a semifinal rematch isn’t ideal, and maybe that thought would win the day. It certainly seems as though this committee isn’t afraid to force matchups — or avoid matchups.
Clemson has won the past 2 ACC title games by 32 and 35 points, respectively. Different opponents, obviously. But if the Tigers win going away, which, honestly, anything less than a 20-point win would be mildly surprising, they could climb as high as No. 1 if Ohio State and LSU lose.
5. Baylor-Oklahoma winner is in the Playoff if Georgia loses
Both teams got their wish Friday night when No. 5 Utah lost.
Now both enter their Big 12 Championship Game knowing if they win and Georgia loses, they will make the Final Four.
Ideally, they’d still control their fate and wouldn’t need help, but it’s better than being in a position like Wisconsin, Oregon or Virginia and knowing no matter what you do today, you’re not making the Playoff.
The best SEC story is still filling 2 Playoff spots. But if Georgia loses, it’s possible we get one heck of a consolation prize.
Here’s hoping Jalen Hurts gets it done and becomes the 1st QB to make the Playoff in 4 consecutive years.
6. Every game matters? Yeah, not so much
We knew in August (of 2014, actually) that at least 1 Power 5 conference championship wasn’t going to mean a darned thing to the winner.
That’s the rub, of course, with the 4-team Playoff field.
This year — for the 4th consecutive year — we could have at least 2 Power 5 conference champions not make the field. We already know the Pac-12 champ is out after Oregon exposed No. 5 Utah 37-15 Friday night.
Last year, Notre Dame grabbed a spot, leaving the Big Ten champ and Pac-12 champ at home.
In 2017, the SEC grabbed 2 spots, leaving the Big Ten champ and Pac-12 champ at home.
In 2016, the Big Ten champ and Big 12 champ stayed at home because Ohio State took the spot that B1G champ Penn State deserved.
It’s puzzling that some college football analysts continue to think a regular season game is more important than a conference championship game, but 6 years in, we’re still here, with flawed logic such as this:
You want expanded playoffs in CFB?
You got it yesterday
Penn State had a playoff game They lost.
Oregon had a playoff game They lost.
Oklahoma had a playoff game They advanced
Baylor had a playoff game They advanced
Utah had a playoff game.
They advanced4 is the right #
— Peter Burns (@PeterBurnsESPN) November 24, 2019
Peter is a nice guy and a friend of the program, but I can’t wait to see the justification after Saturday’s title games are decided. A couple of teams could win championships and not advance. That’s not how legitimate playoffs work.
There’s never been a year in which 3 Power 5 conference champions didn’t make the field, but that could happen if Georgia beats LSU to give the SEC 2 of the 4 Playoff spots and we get 1 more upset.
The wildest scenario is if LSU and Ohio State lose — and still make the field.
“Kirby Smart is the best defensive mind in the game. He found a way to finally slow down Baker Mayfield after Oklahoma scored 31 points in the opening half — but just 17 more in 2 quarters and 2 OTs.”
Finding a way to give up 48 points makes you the “best defensive mind in the game”? LMAO. Georgia homer?
Even the best have bad days. He made great adjustments which lead his team to a victory that game.
His team won because they scored more than the 48 points Kirby gave up. So Kirby ran the offense too? LOL
Reading comprehension isn’t your strong suit, huh? We are talking about defense and the adjustments Kirby made for the defense to help shutdown Okie in the second half +.
31 + 17 = 48
I’m not sure you’re getting the point here. a) that’s just an example, not the sole criteria for Chris saying Kirby is one of the better defensive minds. b) in other words, he took 20 minutes to figure out how to hold Baker Mayfield and Lincoln Riley to 17 points. c) can you name more than say, five guys who would be better “defensive minds” in CFB right now?
I don’t think the scribe is all there if you catch my drift.
Here’s hoping his team is the same way come next WLOCP.
The only guy I can think of that is a better defensive mind is Brent Venables at Clemson. You could throw Kevin Steele into the mix as well after how quickly he turned Auburn’s defense around. I think those two are about the only ones in the conversation with Kirby.
He slowed down the wizard and QB whisperer Mullen pretty well.
7-point game. YUUUGE victory margin, right? And 7 points were gifted to you by perhaps the worst referee “review” in history.
I never talked about UGA’s anemic offensive showing that game. I’m talking about how he slowed Florida to 17 points and forced Mullen to take 7 minutes for a TD drive after Florida was gifted a push-off TD.
UF was gifted that TD but UGA was gifted plenty in that game as well. So it all buffs out.
^
Re-writing history to fit your narrative is a bad look.
Laugh your A$$ off but Kirby won that game. BTW, only three SEC teams have been to the Rose Bowl and Florida is not one of them. Next comment you want to laugh at?
That’s because Florida has been busy winning 3 National Championships while Georgia hasn’t won one since Jimuh Carter was in office. Bwahahahaha.
Not sure what that has to do with Kirby’s defensive coaching acumen at all.
What a stupid response
It’s hard for me to get excited about playoffs with LSU in the SECCG today. It’s been 8 years since LSU won the SEC. It’s time.
I am glad to finally see our offensive collapses finally get the proper mention. All the previous talk about “redemption” for the UGA secondary sounded like manufactured drama intended to drive the LSU offense vs UGA defense narrative. The key question to this game is which unit is able to rise above it’s previous performances this season — UGA’s offense or LSU’s defense. UGA’s offense likely has the tougher road in that regard.
BCS – max 2/5 conference champs play for the title, as few as 1/5 played
CFP – max 4/5 conference champs play for the title (happened 2/5 years), current min of 3/5 conference champs (3/5 years)
And yet somehow conference championship games mean less now? So far, the smallest number of conference champions that have played for a national championship in the CFP is still larger than the maximum possible under the BCS. The only reason conference championships mean less despite being more important than ever is that some people keep repeating that unfounded opinion so often that others start to believe it.
Never with the BCS was there ever a chance that the loser of a conference championship game could have a chance at the national championship. That’s why they mean less now. LSU could lose today and not be completely out of the discussion, which if that ends up happening and they still make the playoffs, would mean today’s game meant absolutely nothing toward LSU’s title hopes.
It never happened, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t a chance. Pretty sure that if all the CCG winners had 2+ losses and the loser of the SECCG was 12-1 there would be a good chance that the SECCG loser would play for the national championship.
If Georgia loses, looks like Oklahoma is in.
And by the time they kick off, they will know the results of the SEC game. If UGA loses, look for OU to blow Baylor out of the stadium.
Oklahoma/Baylor is at noon….
Baylor is actually up at half with their backup in due to an injury to the starter.
Looks like I’ll be watching UTAH at the Alamo bowl this year.
You already have tickets for it? It’ll probably end up being a good matchup with a strong big 10 team
I do. I love in San Antonio.
That’s awesome. I meant a Big 12 team, but regardless, the Alamo Bowl always seems to be a good matchup.
Here’s hoping for a good game Dawgs fans. This game doesn’t mean anything less to me, I want that sec title.
Same here.
Four is the right number. As of this moment, there are really only three team that have any sort of claim to #1.
UGA hasn’t given up more than 20 points in a game. UGA hasn’t given up but one rushing TD all season. These are strong stats and have come against some strong teams. FL and Auburn come to mind. But none of those teams come close to LSU. Talk all you want about the UGA D the big question mark is can DeAndre Swift play 4 quarters.
UGA hasn’t given up more than 20 points in a game except to USCe. UGA hasn’t given up but one rushing TD all season. These are strong stats and have come against some strong teams. FL and Auburn come to mind. But none of those teams come close to LSU. Talk all you want about the UGA D the big question mark is can DeAndre Swift play 4 quarters.
Help me out, sports fans. Why are the talking heads saying if you’re LSU you don’t want to play Clemson in the semis?
Clemson or Oklahoma. I think the choice is pretty clear.
OU? They are who everyone wants to play. They have Hurts and Lamb, and are pretty average otherwise.
Yup. Plus their turnover susceptibility as of late is an added boost.
Plus they don’t play defense.
Some of the talking heads think Clemson should be #1.
That’s not going to happen as their schedule has been too weak. They are certainly capable of winning it all though.
Completely agree. I think they’re the best team in the country, but they don’t deserve to be #1 heading into the playoffs.
All those clowns that said Utah was better than Oklahoma.
They still might be. The Big 12 didn’t exactly have any big time non-conference matchups outside of LSU-Texas to let us know how their conference compares to the others.