O'Gara: Plenty of SEC hot seats have cooled, so let's revisit job security situations entering November
Entering the 2024 season, I asked a simple, but blunt question.
Are 4 SEC coaches dead men walking?
Those 4 coaches were Billy Napier, Sam Pittman, Clark Lea and Shane Beamer. I mapped out the hurdles that each coach faced and why I thought they were in challenging situations to return in 2025, given the fact those 4 programs were picked to finish 12th or worse in the new SEC.
With a month left in what’s been a bizarre 2024 season, I now find myself asking a different question.
Are any SEC coaches going to get fired in 2024?
It’s a fair question; all 4 of those coaches have multiple SEC wins entering November and appear poised to surpass their preseason projections. Combine that with the disappointing coaches (Hugh Freeze, Brent Venables, Mark Stoops) all have significant buyouts that are north of $20 million. Still, their futures are worth discussing, as are the 4 coaches who have, at the very least, weathered the storm enough not to be fired in October.
So what does that mean as we head into November? Let’s break that down:
Billy Napier, Florida
The biggest reason Napier went from “dead man walking” to “guy who actually has a path to 2025” isn’t the quarterback situation. It’s because his previously lifeless defense found a pulse after the Mississippi State game. In the past 3 games, the defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in regulation (Tennessee needed overtime to hit 23, and Kentucky had a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to reach 20 points) and it kept them all to 4.5 yards/play or less. Napier’s decision to reunite with fired Auburn DC Ron Roberts has paid off, and it could be what gives him a chance to navigate this November gauntlet.
- vs. No. 2 Georgia (in Jacksonville)
- at No. 6 Texas
- vs. No. 16 LSU
- vs. No. 19 Ole Miss
The problem for Napier is that while there are certainly winnable games in that daunting 4-game stretch, Florida lost 6 consecutive games against ranked foes. Napier is now relying on an extremely talented, but inexperienced true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway to reverse that trend. If Florida beats Georgia with a brilliant showing by Lagway, that can save Napier’s job. That’s the only game left that has that kind of power.
As promising as October was, Florida still needs to win 1 of these next 4 games (and beat doormat Florida State) just to get to 6-6. Would that be enough to give Napier another year? It depends. If Lagway continues to show promise and Florida is competitive against those 4 ranked foes (with at least 1 win), that could be in the eye of the beholder. But if Lagway looks like a true freshman and Florida is blown out each of the next 2 weeks to fall to 4-5, that could be curtains on the Napier era.
Fired or returning? Fired
There’s a reason we spent so much time in the offseason discussing Florida’s schedule and how it was historically difficult. If Napier were in Year 1, this would be a different story. But for any coach, Year 3 is a monumental time to show improvement. The Gators have shown month-to-month improvement after they looked destined for the SEC basement in September. That’s the good news. But the bad news for Napier is that the $26-27 million buyout that he’d be owed will not be an obstacle. Simply getting to 6-6 by getting 1 ranked win won’t be enough … unless it’s Georgia. But I’m not banking on that.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas
Pittman might’ve had the hottest seat of anybody in America after many thought a 4-win season in 2023 would’ve been his last in Fayetteville. But Arkansas AD Hunter Yurachek gave Pittman that vote of confidence because of the job he did rebuilding the program that Chad Morris left in shambles. So far, Yurachek’s faith in Pittman has been rewarded. The Bobby Petrino hire was a massive upgrade and Travis Williams continues to be one of the top rising defensive minds in the sport.
Arkansas (5-3) already surpassed last year’s 4-win total, and it can get to win No. 6 if it ends Ole Miss’ slipping Playoff hopes on Saturday. If Pittman can do that, he’ll have earned his 4th SEC win of the year. In other words, Arkansas won’t have a losing record in SEC play, which would be quite the feat and probably “job-saving” in itself.
That’s not a given, though. The Hogs are a touchdown underdog. They could be underdogs in 3 of their final 4 games. If Pittman loses all 3 of those games and Arkansas is 6-6, it could depend on how lopsided those games are. Fortunately for Pittman, if things do spiral and he’s fired, he is likely going to be owed $12-13 million (75% of the remaining contract) instead of $8-9 million:
Arkansas ups record to 5-3 this season by routing Mississippi State. This makes Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman’s record since the start of 2021 season 25-21 and means that unless Hogs go to bowl w/ 5-7 mark and lose, school’s buyout to fire Pittman stays at 75% of pay left vs. 50%
— Steve Berkowitz (@ByBerkowitz) October 26, 2024
I’m not sure that Yurachek would fire or not fire Pittman because of that number, but it’s context that’s worth remembering with the post-2021 extension that super-agent Jimmy Sexton negotiated.
Fired or returning? Returning
As crazy as it might’ve sounded entering the season, I think Pittman beats Ole Miss on Saturday and secures his 2025 return. Even if he doesn’t make that happen, beating Texas at home or Mizzou in Columbia certainly feels like it’s possible. Winning 1 of those 3 games and getting to 7-5 with an overhauled offense would be enough to run it back with the Petrino-Taylen Green experience, as well as offering Williams a hefty raise to stay (he’s owed $1.25 million in 2025). I won’t rule out the possibility of Yurachek starting over, but the most likely scenario now feels like Pittman getting a Year 6 in Fayetteville.
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt
Man, talk about a turnaround. It’s like I always say, “if your job is on the line, import the best parts of New Mexico State and pray that it works out.”
OK, so I don’t always say that, but Lea basically said it once, and it should be the thing that saves his job. Entering 2024, that seemed like a pipe dream after Lea earned an extension to stay at Vanderbilt through the 2029 season … only to go winless in SEC play in 2023. That was a distant memory after Vandy stunned No. 1 Alabama and Diego Pavia took over the college football world.
Don’t discount the other pivot that Lea made to supplement the New Mexico State-to-Vanderbilt offensive migration (his hire of NMSU offensive coordinator Tim Beck was massive). Lea delegated some of those head coaching duties to Jerry Kill (another NMSU transplant) so that he could focus on running the defense for the first time since he left Brian Kelly’s staff at Notre Dame. Vandy improved by a full yard/play and it’s nearly 2 touchdowns/game better than it was in 2023. Even if the juice that Pavia brought is a 1-year deal, those defensive adjustments bode well for Lea’s future.
Fired or returning? Returning
More likely than firing Lea, AD Candice Storey Lee will be giving him a restructured contract that bumps up his base pay and gives him a deeper pool for his assistants. He has 5 more years left on his deal after this season, so there’s no need for another extension, but Lea has earned that raise by getting Vandy into the AP Top 25 during the regular season for the first time since 2008 (the 2012 and 2013 squads became ranked after the bowl games).
And yeah, I could’ve ended this discussion by saying, “the guy beat No. 1 Alabama. Next.”
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Beamer might’ve been in a different spot than those 3 coaches, but he knows as well as anyone: Usually, SEC coaches who have consecutive disappointing seasons are out of a job. That set the stage for Beamer’s 2024 to be a pivotal one. If he missed a bowl game again, his future would’ve been in doubt. Period.
Fortunately for Beamer, his defensive line is among the most terrifying units in America. Credit the recruiting of 5-star freshman Dylan Stewart and the savvy transfer portal addition of Georgia Tech transfer Kyle Kennard for fueling that. That group has been the backbone behind a “better than the casual fan probably realizes” 4-3 start. The Gamecocks nearly beat LSU and Alabama. Moral victories don’t save jobs, but dominating Kentucky and Oklahoma certainly did. Hence, the +22 margin in SEC play in 2024.
What’s interesting is that Ray Tanner, who hired Beamer 3 years ago, stepped down as South Carolina AD in early September. That’s always worth monitoring for a big-revenue coach, who would prefer to have the person that hired them to be the one to have to make that decision.
Fired or returning? Returning
I’m not sure there’s a scarier unranked team in America than South Carolina. If you don’t have both a mobile quarterback and a capable offensive line, you might be BBQ chicken against that Gamecock defensive line. That’s why South Carolina has a “we can play with anyone” mindset heading into the home stretch. Even with matchups against a pair of top-10 teams (vs. No. 10 A&M this weekend and at No. 9 Clemson) and tricky games at Vanderbilt and home against a Mizzou team that’s owned South Carolina, the most likely scenario is that South Carolina wins 2 of those games. Add in FCS Wofford as a win and 7-5 would be a multi-win improvement.
It’d be hard for Tanner’s successor to pull the plug on a $13-14 million buyout if that’s in store.
I think Brent Venables and Hugh Freeze are both back … and on every hot seat list in America entering 2025
Both coaches are staring at bowl-less seasons. That’s daunting, given what was being said about them entering the season.
With Venables, remember that he got an extension a week before Oklahoma’s first day in the SEC this summer. The Sooners still want to win that breakup with Lincoln Riley. Bailing on a coach after Year 3 and paying him a $38.8 million buyout doesn’t seem imminent, even if this Year 1 in the SEC has been a complete disaster. And fortunately for Venables, he could sign his 3rd consecutive top-8 class, depending on how things shake out during the home stretch of recruiting. That’s significant because of the way that Venables did that and how it differed from Riley’s recruiting DNA with building from the trenches.
That’s also why I think Freeze’s situation feels different than Bryan Harsin, who was fired on Halloween in Year 2 … which is exactly where Freeze is at right now. Paying a $22.1 million buyout to Freeze doesn’t feel quite as imminent because all signs point to him signing a top-5 class, and there’s likely a bit of grace that’ll be shown after the situation he inherited from Harsin.
But is it a greater than 0% chance? Sure. After all, AD John Cohen is familiar with firing a coach he hired after 2 seasons. He did that with Joe Moorhead at Mississippi State, even though Moorhead got to the postseason and won the Egg Bowl in both of his years in Starkville. At Auburn, though, I can’t imagine that Cohen will be so quick to pull the plug unless Freeze goes 4-8 and his decorated 2025 class falls apart at the 11th hour.
And as for Mark Stoops …
More likely than Stoops getting fired is a “mutual” parting of ways in which he gets a 1-time payment that’s well short of the remaining money on his contract. Kentucky won’t pay a $44 million buyout to fire Stoops. While that’s not a lump sum that Stoops would be owed, that’s still a ton of money to commit to the program’s all-time winningest coach to go away. I don’t care if that John Calipari buyout that was never needed is “available.”
But could UK cut a check for $15-20 million to let Stoops fade off into the sunset and finance the growth of his bourbon company? Yeah. That could be on the table on the heels of UK going winless at home in SEC play for the first time since Year 1 of the Stoops era.
Let’s just say, I am REALLY hoping I will be able to change my username next season.
It kinda feels like the end of the road for CMS doesn’t it. Gotta give him credit for bringing some respect to the UK football program.
I think he can thrive somewhere else where perhaps where there’s a bigger pool of talent to draw upon.
My concern for the Wildcats is recruiting. 2025 class is at #20. 2024 = #31. 2023 = #36. Etc. Etc. NIL might be problematic as well.
Best of luck to your football program.
After multiple years with the top rated team and no SEC or National Championship to show for it, Kirby will increasingly be on the hotseat. There isn’t a coach who does less with more than Kirby.
You are more than obviously spring-loaded in the stupid position.
Neal, the best way to deal with this moron is to ignore him until the Vols get curb stomped by UGA and he’ll go hide in his mother’s trailer until next season.
I’d say Hype-L after he drops the Vols 8th straight to UGA, but Vol fans are good with being mid so he’ll likely get an extension
Are you talking about Kirby SMART or some guy coaching at a D2 school in West Virginia?
I think Kirby will be hosting the national championship trophy this year.
Hoisting, not hosting.
LOL! Kirby & Dabo could have consecutive losing seasons & would still be safe. Look how long UGA put up with Richt?
Stoops seems to think he’d do better with more resources, but the UK boosters say they already bucked up and now they want to see some return.
I think the UK football team has quit on CMS. Really gave up that 2nd half against Auburn. Still the Vols need to come prepared.
Actually stoops has quit on the players and at this point they could care less if they win or lose. Tenn will spank them for sure, along with Texas and maybe even arch rival Louisville. Ky is back into the cellar of the SEC.
Gator fans are very familiar with the consequences of a head coach quitting on the team, ala Mullin. If that is the case at Kentucky (don’t honestly know that it is), then it serves as an explanation for erratic performance but more importantly, sets off a very toxic locker-room condition for the successor. All I can say is that whoever that may be, he better be a stud. Anything less, as we have discovered, only prolongs the misery.
Spurrier quit on you as well so…
Voltrain, just how desperate ARE you for attention?
It’s definitely tine for a change at the helm. The last 3 years have been very boring to watch. No offensive line gives KY no chance every year.
I’m getting the impression more and more that the current crop of Bullgators are a bunch of fat alcoholics with low expectations.
In fact, SDS had a story a year or so ago where they interviewed two obese boosters who both said it didn’t matter if Napier won because football games were just excuses for them to get drunk and eat Funyons. In that kind of environment, Napier can keep running his long con, promising that he is only pretending to be an incompetent boob now as part of his master plan, where he rips off his buffoon mask in year five and screams “surprise! I’m not an idiot!”
Truth, Funyons? I eat funyons , you must be thinking the fire flavored funyons? Funny stuff though no doubt. Go Gators!
Marsh, recommend that you switch from Funyons to Moon Pies immediately. Won’t do anything for your blood sugar, mind you, but the sugar high will make you delirious in bad times – especially when washed down with full strength RC Cola.
Doc, I was forced to give up Moon Pies , not by choice mind you but they quit selling the vanilla here. I am not a banana or chocolate fan so such are the hard knocks of life. I have noticed the new double deckers. Glad they weren’t around when I was a kid. I would have been an offensive guard instead of a linebacker. RC colas should be used instead of wine at communion. I’m sure the man upstairs would agree.
RC Cola and moon pies. Now that sure sparks memories! Does not get any better than that…
You guys are killing it with the nostalgia. Moon pies evokes memories of sophomore year care packages
lol!
Hilarious – funyons were all the rage in 5th grade.
Ogara, Roberts is the problem not the solution. There’s a reason he was fired at his two previous stops. UF will be his third.
Billy might be able to steal one against Ole Miss or LSU, but I look at that FSU game at the end of the year as exactly the kind of game he’ll lose.
Take Vandy’s defensive playbook and they could beat Texas.
Berwin, aside from shamelessly begging for you to come back to Hogtown, I keep hearing that if Napier can win 2 of the remaining 5 he will be back. Hope that is only a rumor, but if those 2 are Georgia and FSU, what are the odds?
Doc, I think that probably does get him one more year as long as they don’t look terrible against Texas, LSU and Ole Miss. Institutional paralysis is the best friend right now for Billy and Scott, as is selling one more year of DJ.
napier goes 5-7 with the next 4 losses being decent and beating fsu, he’s back – another $7.5M for OJT – stricklin’s getting no pressure from the interim prez to fire him
O’Gara apparently has not noticed that Roberts has disappeared from the Gator sideline and Armstrong has reappeared.
Again, the key factor in Napier’s firing will be the availability of a desirable replacement. There is a season wins path to him keeping his job for another year. There is no path for him becoming a better in-game coach.
On Stoops, Pittman, Lea, et al, not every program has realistic expectations of going to the playoff. The appropriate goal is bowl eligibility.
Stoops just missed horribly on quarterback recruitment.
My impression has been that Napier isn’t really the factor on if he’s fired or not, the administration is. A clear replacement makes the call easier, but how much faith is there that Striklin can actually make a good hire?
Lawdawg, CBN says, “So you’re saying there’s a chance!”
Time for Ky to part ways with stoops and it’s better sooner than wait to the last min where u have no chance of getting recruits or even a decent coach
I’m not hearing anybody calling for Sam’s firing here in Arkansas, and really haven’t heard that ever. If he can keep Travis Williams around another season or two, that would be great, and the Petrino rerun is working out just fine. And the talent level this year is far better than last year.
Still, the bottom line is, in this NIL and free agency age, we know who we are, and who we aren’t. Getting to 10 wins or more every 3 or 4 years is a solid goal. All Sam needs to do is to win at least half of the one-score games instead of losing most of them. If he can improve on that, he’ll leave on his own terms, whenever he decides.
And no matter how he leaves, or when, he’ll leave us far better off than when he came. He’s a very popular man here.
Here here. Sounds about right to me.
I guess SDS has money on the over of number of CBN is getting fired articles.
If Stoops remains I am ditching my user name and revising to “donewithstoops2025”.