Entering the 2024 season, I asked a simple, but blunt question.

Are 4 SEC coaches dead men walking?

Those 4 coaches were Billy Napier, Sam Pittman, Clark Lea and Shane Beamer. I mapped out the hurdles that each coach faced and why I thought they were in challenging situations to return in 2025, given the fact those 4 programs were picked to finish 12th or worse in the new SEC.

With a month left in what’s been a bizarre 2024 season, I now find myself asking a different question.

Are any SEC coaches going to get fired in 2024?

It’s a fair question; all 4 of those coaches have multiple SEC wins entering November and appear poised to surpass their preseason projections. Combine that with the disappointing coaches (Hugh Freeze, Brent Venables, Mark Stoops) all have significant buyouts that are north of $20 million. Still, their futures are worth discussing, as are the 4 coaches who have, at the very least, weathered the storm enough not to be fired in October.

So what does that mean as we head into November? Let’s break that down:

Billy Napier, Florida

The biggest reason Napier went from “dead man walking” to “guy who actually has a path to 2025” isn’t the quarterback situation. It’s because his previously lifeless defense found a pulse after the Mississippi State game. In the past 3 games, the defense hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in regulation (Tennessee needed overtime to hit 23, and Kentucky had a 99-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to reach 20 points) and it kept them all to 4.5 yards/play or less. Napier’s decision to reunite with fired Auburn DC Ron Roberts has paid off, and it could be what gives him a chance to navigate this November gauntlet.

  • vs. No. 2 Georgia (in Jacksonville)
  • at No. 6 Texas
  • vs. No. 16 LSU
  • vs. No. 19 Ole Miss

The problem for Napier is that while there are certainly winnable games in that daunting 4-game stretch, Florida lost 6 consecutive games against ranked foes. Napier is now relying on an extremely talented, but inexperienced true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway to reverse that trend. If Florida beats Georgia with a brilliant showing by Lagway, that can save Napier’s job. That’s the only game left that has that kind of power.

As promising as October was, Florida still needs to win 1 of these next 4 games (and beat doormat Florida State) just to get to 6-6. Would that be enough to give Napier another year? It depends. If Lagway continues to show promise and Florida is competitive against those 4 ranked foes (with at least 1 win), that could be in the eye of the beholder. But if Lagway looks like a true freshman and Florida is blown out each of the next 2 weeks to fall to 4-5, that could be curtains on the Napier era.

Fired or returning? Fired

There’s a reason we spent so much time in the offseason discussing Florida’s schedule and how it was historically difficult. If Napier were in Year 1, this would be a different story. But for any coach, Year 3 is a monumental time to show improvement. The Gators have shown month-to-month improvement after they looked destined for the SEC basement in September. That’s the good news. But the bad news for Napier is that the $26-27 million buyout that he’d be owed will not be an obstacle. Simply getting to 6-6 by getting 1 ranked win won’t be enough … unless it’s Georgia. But I’m not banking on that.

Sam Pittman, Arkansas

Pittman might’ve had the hottest seat of anybody in America after many thought a 4-win season in 2023 would’ve been his last in Fayetteville. But Arkansas AD Hunter Yurachek gave Pittman that vote of confidence because of the job he did rebuilding the program that Chad Morris left in shambles. So far, Yurachek’s faith in Pittman has been rewarded. The Bobby Petrino hire was a massive upgrade and Travis Williams continues to be one of the top rising defensive minds in the sport.

Arkansas (5-3) already surpassed last year’s 4-win total, and it can get to win No. 6 if it ends Ole Miss’ slipping Playoff hopes on Saturday. If Pittman can do that, he’ll have earned his 4th SEC win of the year. In other words, Arkansas won’t have a losing record in SEC play, which would be quite the feat and probably “job-saving” in itself.

That’s not a given, though. The Hogs are a touchdown underdog. They could be underdogs in 3 of their final 4 games. If Pittman loses all 3 of those games and Arkansas is 6-6, it could depend on how lopsided those games are. Fortunately for Pittman, if things do spiral and he’s fired, he is likely going to be owed $12-13 million (75% of the remaining contract) instead of $8-9 million:

I’m not sure that Yurachek would fire or not fire Pittman because of that number, but it’s context that’s worth remembering with the post-2021 extension that super-agent Jimmy Sexton negotiated.

Fired or returning? Returning

As crazy as it might’ve sounded entering the season, I think Pittman beats Ole Miss on Saturday and secures his 2025 return. Even if he doesn’t make that happen, beating Texas at home or Mizzou in Columbia certainly feels like it’s possible. Winning 1 of those 3 games and getting to 7-5 with an overhauled offense would be enough to run it back with the Petrino-Taylen Green experience, as well as offering Williams a hefty raise to stay (he’s owed $1.25 million in 2025). I won’t rule out the possibility of Yurachek starting over, but the most likely scenario now feels like Pittman getting a Year 6 in Fayetteville.

Clark Lea, Vanderbilt

Man, talk about a turnaround. It’s like I always say, “if your job is on the line, import the best parts of New Mexico State and pray that it works out.”

OK, so I don’t always say that, but Lea basically said it once, and it should be the thing that saves his job. Entering 2024, that seemed like a pipe dream after Lea earned an extension to stay at Vanderbilt through the 2029 season … only to go winless in SEC play in 2023. That was a distant memory after Vandy stunned No. 1 Alabama and Diego Pavia took over the college football world.

Don’t discount the other pivot that Lea made to supplement the New Mexico State-to-Vanderbilt offensive migration (his hire of NMSU offensive coordinator Tim Beck was massive). Lea delegated some of those head coaching duties to Jerry Kill (another NMSU transplant) so that he could focus on running the defense for the first time since he left Brian Kelly’s staff at Notre Dame. Vandy improved by a full yard/play and it’s nearly 2 touchdowns/game better than it was in 2023. Even if the juice that Pavia brought is a 1-year deal, those defensive adjustments bode well for Lea’s future.

Fired or returning? Returning

More likely than firing Lea, AD Candice Storey Lee will be giving him a restructured contract that bumps up his base pay and gives him a deeper pool for his assistants. He has 5 more years left on his deal after this season, so there’s no need for another extension, but Lea has earned that raise by getting Vandy into the AP Top 25 during the regular season for the first time since 2008 (the 2012 and 2013 squads became ranked after the bowl games).

And yeah, I could’ve ended this discussion by saying, “the guy beat No. 1 Alabama. Next.”

Shane Beamer, South Carolina

Beamer might’ve been in a different spot than those 3 coaches, but he knows as well as anyone: Usually, SEC coaches who have consecutive disappointing seasons are out of a job. That set the stage for Beamer’s 2024 to be a pivotal one. If he missed a bowl game again, his future would’ve been in doubt. Period.

Fortunately for Beamer, his defensive line is among the most terrifying units in America. Credit the recruiting of 5-star freshman Dylan Stewart and the savvy transfer portal addition of Georgia Tech transfer Kyle Kennard for fueling that. That group has been the backbone behind a “better than the casual fan probably realizes” 4-3 start. The Gamecocks nearly beat LSU and Alabama. Moral victories don’t save jobs, but dominating Kentucky and Oklahoma certainly did. Hence, the +22 margin in SEC play in 2024.

What’s interesting is that Ray Tanner, who hired Beamer 3 years ago, stepped down as South Carolina AD in early September. That’s always worth monitoring for a big-revenue coach, who would prefer to have the person that hired them to be the one to have to make that decision.

Fired or returning? Returning

I’m not sure there’s a scarier unranked team in America than South Carolina. If you don’t have both a mobile quarterback and a capable offensive line, you might be BBQ chicken against that Gamecock defensive line. That’s why South Carolina has a “we can play with anyone” mindset heading into the home stretch. Even with matchups against a pair of top-10 teams (vs. No. 10 A&M this weekend and at No. 9 Clemson) and tricky games at Vanderbilt and home against a Mizzou team that’s owned South Carolina, the most likely scenario is that South Carolina wins 2 of those games. Add in FCS Wofford as a win and 7-5 would be a multi-win improvement.

It’d be hard for Tanner’s successor to pull the plug on a $13-14 million buyout if that’s in store.

I think Brent Venables and Hugh Freeze are both back … and on every hot seat list in America entering 2025

Both coaches are staring at bowl-less seasons. That’s daunting, given what was being said about them entering the season.

With Venables, remember that he got an extension a week before Oklahoma’s first day in the SEC this summer. The Sooners still want to win that breakup with Lincoln Riley. Bailing on a coach after Year 3 and paying him a $38.8 million buyout doesn’t seem imminent, even if this Year 1 in the SEC has been a complete disaster. And fortunately for Venables, he could sign his 3rd consecutive top-8 class, depending on how things shake out during the home stretch of recruiting. That’s significant because of the way that Venables did that and how it differed from Riley’s recruiting DNA with building from the trenches.

That’s also why I think Freeze’s situation feels different than Bryan Harsin, who was fired on Halloween in Year 2 … which is exactly where Freeze is at right now. Paying a $22.1 million buyout to Freeze doesn’t feel quite as imminent because all signs point to him signing a top-5 class, and there’s likely a bit of grace that’ll be shown after the situation he inherited from Harsin.

But is it a greater than 0% chance? Sure. After all, AD John Cohen is familiar with firing a coach he hired after 2 seasons. He did that with Joe Moorhead at Mississippi State, even though Moorhead got to the postseason and won the Egg Bowl in both of his years in Starkville. At Auburn, though, I can’t imagine that Cohen will be so quick to pull the plug unless Freeze goes 4-8 and his decorated 2025 class falls apart at the 11th hour.

And as for Mark Stoops …

More likely than Stoops getting fired is a “mutual” parting of ways in which he gets a 1-time payment that’s well short of the remaining money on his contract. Kentucky won’t pay a $44 million buyout to fire Stoops. While that’s not a lump sum that Stoops would be owed, that’s still a ton of money to commit to the program’s all-time winningest coach to go away. I don’t care if that John Calipari buyout that was never needed is “available.”

But could UK cut a check for $15-20 million to let Stoops fade off into the sunset and finance the growth of his bourbon company? Yeah. That could be on the table on the heels of UK going winless at home in SEC play for the first time since Year 1 of the Stoops era.